Week 6 Preview: Browns @ Raiders

 Posted by at 12:12 AM  1 Response »
Oct 162011
 

On Offense

With all the discussion about last week’s emotional win in Houston it is easy to forget that statistically, last week was the Raiders worse offensive game. Last week, the Raiders finished with 278 offensive yards marking the first time since week 1 the team did not reach 300 yards. The Raiders offense were out-gaineed by nearly 200 yards, by far the largest amount so far this season. The most the Raiders had been out-gained this season was by 56 in Week 3 when Mark Sanchez and the Jets were playing catch-up and attempted 44 passes.

To improve this week, it starts up front with the big hogs. The Raiders offensive line last gave up 3 sacks in week 5 after only allowing two total in the other four games this season. The Browns have 11 sacks in four games and a pass rush that could pose problems to the Raiders offensive line. Darren McFadden totaled only 51 rushing yards in week 5 and 75 in week 4. The opposition has done a good job shrinking the running lanes the past two weeks. Regardless of the defensive front or scheme the Raiders offensive line needs to find a way to get McFadden cleanly to the second level and beyond.

The Browns will likely load the box and make Jason Campbell prove he can be consistently accurate. In order to help open up the running lanes, Jason Campbell must make the Browns secondary respect the pass. Campbell can do this by connecting with tight end Kevin Boss and other receivers on intermediate passing routes. Campbell will be facing a defense that is giving up less than 200 passing yards a game so look for McFadden to break out his mini funk with 125 yards or more this week and look for Kevin Boss to make an impact in the red zone.

 

On Defense

The Browns are led by Colt McCoy and running back Peyton Hillis, but Hillis has been maligned and McCoy has shouldered the offensive burden impressively. In four games, McCoy has passed for 984 yards and 6 touchdowns. More would be talked about McCoy’s campaign if it was not for Hillis’ off the field problems. Given that Hillis’ agent did not advise him to sit out this game; the Raiders should expect a healthy dosage of him. His physical running style will go along with a well-distributed passing game which will feature team leading receiver Mohamed Massaquoi and tight end Benjamin Watson. This Sunday, Cleveland rookie Greg Little will get his first career start at wide receiver.

So far this season, the Browns offense has not been impressive. Victories in the NFL cannot be taken for granted and opponents cannot be underestimated, but the Browns’ victories came over Indianapolis and Miami. Cal product Alex Mack is the Browns starting center and is recovering from an appendectomy. This is a golden opportunity for the Raiders defensive line to flex their muscle and dominate once again. After one practice Aaron Curry will get the start, look for him to be around the ball on running downs and off the field in passing situations. Look for multiple sacks from the defensive line and an interception or two in the secondary.

 

Matchups

Darren McFadden vs. D’Qwell Johnson

D’Qwell Johnson has been plagued with injuries during his career but he is now staying healthy and is having the best season of his career. He has registered double digits in tackles in three out if the Browns four games this season. Johnson also leads all middle linebackers in sacks and was voted AFC defensive player of the month in September. For the Raiders to have a big game, McFadden needs to have early success. After two unusually subpar games, McFadden needs to get back on track. The key will be how many times McFadden gets past the first wave of Cleveland defenders.

Raiders’ Offensive line vs. Browns’ front 7

In all aspects the Raiders offensive line had their worst game last week and it showed. They gave up 3 sacks and the Raiders only gained 94 rushing yards. The Browns are coming off a bye but they will be without pass rushing Marcus Bernard. The Browns front 7 has a good combination of size, experience and speed. They are led on the line by 300 pounder Ahtyba Rubin and in the linebacker corps by D’Qwell Johnson. The Browns have had early contributions from massive rookie lineman Phil Taylor and his defensive end peer Jabaal Sheard. This matchup will set the Raiders offensive tempo for much of the game.

Jason Campbell vs. Browns’ Secondary

Campbell did barely enough to lead his team to victory last week. The Browns’ defense will likely come out loading the box, begging Campbell to make accurate throws. Campbell needs to make the Browns’ respect the pass. For McFadden to have success, Campbell needs to distribute the ball well, take advantage of open receivers and make accurate passes. The Browns secondary has an impressive mixture of experience and youth with 2nd year safety T.J Ward leading the way. Pass defense is a team effort but so far the Browns’ secondary is holding teams under 200 passing yards a game. Joe Haden, the Browns’ stud corner back is coming off a knee injury and will likely be a game time decision, his presence could be missed.

Kevin Boss vs. Browns’ coverage

Three out of the four games the Browns have played a tight end has caught a touchdown. Two out of those three games, the tight end was the leading receiver for the other team. Kevin Boss started the season injured and has been outshined by the Raiders wide receivers to this point. Boss has yet to reach the end zone so look for Boss to have his coming out party this Sunday against a defense that struggles defending the tight end.

Colt McCoy vs Chuch Bresnahan

Colt McCoy deserves his own light. With Hillis’ shenanigans, McCoy really has really stepped up and led this team. After a record-setting collegiate career, McCoy probably still has a chip on his shoulder after falling into the third round. Watch for McCoy to distribute the ball well and work short routes that test the Raiders open field tackling. Last week, Bresnahan used blitzes to take his linebackers out of coverage and it worked. Look for Bresnahan to dial-up the blitz again. Bresnahan will probably use a mixture of blitz packages including safety and zone blitzes to put added pressure on the Browns’ young quarterback.

Peyton Hillis vs. Raiders Defensive Line

When the Raiders defensive line plays inspired and they lead the team to victory. Tommy Kelly, Richard Seymour and Lamarr Houston all had great games last week. If the defensive line was not busy holding Arian Foster to 68 yards rushing, they were getting after Schaub and deflecting passes. When the defensive line plays like this, they are nearly unstoppable. Peyton Hillis so far has been a disappointment this year. His play has taken back seat to his contract and him being sick. Look for Hillis to come out motivated after the bye week.

Greg Little vs. DeMarcus Van Dyke

Greg Little is making his first career start at wide receiver and has been an early season favorite of Colt McCoy’s. Little, who’s getting the start over Cribbs, has caught a respectful 14 balls for 131 yards this season. Even though he has a low average he has caught more balls in four games than any Raiders receiver has in five, outside Hayward-Bey. DVD had a great first start for the Raiders only giving up one catch. If DVD gets the start, expect Little on his side and for him to get consistently challenged.

Benjamin Watson/Evan Moore vs. Raiders Linebackers/Safeties

The best friend for any young quarterback is a reliable tight end. Watson has been McCoy’s favorite target, leading the team in receptions with 16. Moore has 7 catches in four games and is currently tied with Watson in touchdown catches with 2. Even though last week the Raiders defense was stout again the run, they had some blown coverages that resulted in touchdowns. The Texans tight ends finished with 12 catches for 201 yards last week. The Raiders linebackers did not play the pass well. They often respond late and were suckered by play action. The Raiders safeties have had communication problems as well as problems tackling. The Raiders need to clamp down on these tight ends or Watson and Moore will have a party of their own.

Aaron Curry vs Aaron Curry

Just after a couple of being traded Aaron Curry is making his first in the silver and black. Curry will be asked to play weak side linebacker, a position that he has never played. Curry will see runs his way and be responsible for cut backs on runs to the strong side. Curry will be tested early and often by the Browns. It would make sense for the Raiders to take Curry out on obvious passing downs. The key will be how he plays against play action and other pass plays. Curry get one chance to make a good first impression on his new team and to the Raider Nation and this is it.

2011 Oakland Raiders Season Preview

 Posted by at 9:55 PM  1 Response »
Sep 102011
 

Only two seasons ago the Raiders had trouble scoring touchdowns. All of that changed when Hue Jackson arrived as offensive coordinator prior to the 2010 season. Despite the continued problems pass blocking the Raiders vaulted into the top ten in total yards and top six in points per game. Despite the offensive improvement the Raiders had other problems that caused them to end the season with an 8-8 record.

Fast forward to 2011 and the Raiders offense appears ready to exceed their 2010 production, but the Raiders will need to curb a troubling trend of being unable to stop the run or create turnovers. The poor pass blocking was also a concern as the Raiders struggled with quarterback injuries in 2010. Unable or unwilling to retain the services of all-pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders pass defense is now under a microscope.
What’s in store for the 2011 Raiders? Let’s take a look at the key areas.

 

Can the Raiders Stop the Run?

The Raiders have been unable to play consistently against the run despite changes in defensive personnel. Richard Seymour and the coaching staff claim this is just a matter of attitude and the players all being on the same page.

Reality is that the Raiders defensive scheme makes stopping the run more difficult. The Raiders front four attempts to penetrate into the backfield and this creates running lanes. If the linebacker is blocked or does not fill the correct gap the running back is likely headed for the secondary, where sure tacklers are scarce save Tyvon Branch.

The defensive backs often have their back turned playing man-to-man and opposing offenses will often have their receivers run off the coverage on running plays instead of blocking.

Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston and Matt Shaughnessy have the opportunity to be one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, but if they can’t help stop the run they will continue to get accolades while costing the Raiders wins.

The linebackers will need to do their part to help the defensive front and fill the running lanes and make solid tackles.

It is a very important season for middle linebacker Rolando McClain. How he coordinates the defense and if he can play faster and more consistently will go a long way in helping the Raiders run defense.

The other key the Raiders run defense is veteran defensive tackle John Henderson. Henderson was brought in to be a specialist of sorts. He’s the Raiders run plug up the middle. If Henderson can stay healthy he should help solidify the Raiders run defense.
Quentin Groves is clearly the weakest link in the front seven. Absent a suitable replacement the Raiders are stuck with him. If Groves can’t improve his play defenses are going to target him.
Kamerion Wimbley may be the star of the front seven. As a strong-side linebacker Wimbley has played well enough. As a defensive end in passing situation Wimbley has been a force. He was paid according to his production this offseason.

If Al Davis gives Chuck Bresnahan the flexibility to change-up the defensive scheme, the Raiders may improve in 2011. It’s a risk for Bresnahan to change the defensive philosophy too drastically, but minor tweaks may result in significant strides.

 

Can the Raiders Pass Block?

The Raiders return three starters on the offensive line and Stefen Wisniewski will be the only new player to the team playing with the starting five. The Raiders must have realized the mistake in shuffling the offensive line too drastically, because the starting line remains relatively unchanged from 2010.

Jared Veldheer must make strides as the Raiders left tackle and protect Jason Campbell’s blindside so he can deliver the football down the field. His continued development is vitally important to the passing game’s success. Based on observations of his play he has already improved since the end of last season.
Samson Satele has played better during this preseason than he has in his career. He’ll still struggle with nose tackles, but his solid play is a welcome sign on the offensive line. If he remains consistent and plays like he is capable the Raiders will be content to keep starting him.

With Cooper Carlisle and Khalif Barnes on the right side of the line, expect much of the same. Occasionally lapses in pass blocking may be the norm. The Raiders can tolerate a certain level of mediocrity from these two provided they don’t also make mental errors that kill drives. However, poor play may cost Carlisle and Barnes their starting jobs.

The Raiders do have the benefit of depth for the first time in many years. Stephon Heyer, Joseph Barksdale and Bruce Campbell are a much improved group of backups. Poor play by the starters or elevated play by the backups could result in changes to the starting five. Heyer could force his way into the lineup quickly and take Barnes starting spot at right tackle.

Raiders’ new offensive coordinator Al Saunders is perhaps best known for his work with receivers. If the Raiders can pass block, Saunders will make sure the receivers are in position to make a play.

 

How Will the Raiders Adjust to the Loss of Nnamdi Asomugha?

Nnamdi Asomugha took his talents out of Oakland this offseason. The Raiders now will attempt to make up for the loss of one of the best players in the league.
Out is Asomugha, in comes former starter Chris Johnson. Johnson isn’t a terrible starter and the Raiders look adequate with Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson on either side. The problem comes is one of depth.

The Raiders have rookies Demarcus Van Dyke, Chimdi Chekwa and former UFL player Joe Porter.

One of Van Dyke, Chekwa or Porter will be the Raiders primary slot cornerback. Van Dyke has potential, but is rather green when it comes to his technique. He must learn on the fly and learn quickly how to be an NFL corner or Raiders opponents will spread the Raiders out and target him.

The other likely scenario is Michael Huff playing slot cornerback and Chekwa playing free safety. Huff filled in as the nickel corner at times last season and had success. He’ll continue this role until the Van Dyke is ready.

It’s not likely the Raiders will play a lot of zone this season, but expect more zone than in past years. Al Davis is comfortable with Chuck Bresnahan and one benefit to it is Bresnahan knows how far he can stretch Davis when it comes to zone coverage.

A bit of zone coverage may ultimately help the Raiders safeties. Tyvon Branch has been criticized for his coverage the past couple years and that has been a question with Mike Mitchell and Jerome Boyd as well. Michael Huff is on the other end of the spectrum.

Again, don’t expect a lot of zone, but a little more zone coverage and blitzing may ease some of the pressure on the secondary redirecting it the Raiders strong front seven.

 

Run DMC, Pound the Bush, Taiwan on Track, Reece a Piece

The Raiders running game can’t get much better than it was in 2011. The offensive line needs to block, but appears as strong as 2010 or better. So the pressure will be the backs to be productive.
Darren McFadden remains the pack leader. The Raiders will continue to put him in positions to be successful. He’ll carry the bulk of the load and is also a receiving threat. Michael Bush remains the change of pace back. He’s not really a bruiser as he is made out to be, but he is a big man that is surprising fluid and always seems to chew up positive yardage.

The new weapon the Raiders have is rookie Taiwan Jones. He might be one of the fastest players in the league. An odd build for a running back and prone to injuries so the Raiders will use him to return kicks and implement special packages designed to get Jones in space. He may not get a lot of carries this season, but he will be exciting to watch when he does. Jones is a home run threat; the Raiders will use him to swing for the fences.

Marcel Reece will remain a big part of the offense. With weapons all over the field it is hard to redirect much attention to Reece. He’s a receiving threat first and foremost and fast enough to gain yards after catch. Reece needs to continue to improve his pass blocking to stay on the field. Part of the reason the Raiders kept four tight ends was because of the injury to Kevin Boss, the other was because rookie Richard Gordon may translate his blocking skills to be a blocking fullback.

 

Young Receivers Primed For Breakout?

It is the third season for Darrius Heyward-Bey. It’s now or never for the much maligned Raiders first rounder. It’s also the pivotal third season for Louis Murphy. Is he any better than a number two? Jacoby Ford, is he another Steve Smith or will he regress in his sophomore year?

DHB and Murphy should be hitting their stride as professionals this season. Ford should be progressing towards it. Hopefully Al Saunders influence can thrust these receivers’ careers forward.

One way the Raiders may help Heyward-Bey is by having him run shorter routes where he doesn’t have to go up to battle for the ball. He’ll be forced to make a quick catch and run.

Much celebrated rookie Denarius Moore will figure into the mix and the Raiders are looking for big things out of Moore. That leaves the much less explosive Derek Hagan and the oft-injured Chaz Schilens to round out the group. How much production the Raiders get from these veterans will be important to passing production on third down.

Nick Miller finishes up the group, but should mostly be used as a punt returner this season. If he doesn’t win the punt return job he likely will not stick around for long.

 

Jason Campbell Must Lead The Way

No excuses for Campbell will be made. He must lead the Raiders this season. Gone is the safety net of Bruce Gradkowski when Campbell played poorly. Campbell seems more than capable when given time, so the Raiders must give him time.

One problem Campbell has yet to correct is his rollout from center on pass plays. Certainly defenses have spotted this on tape and will continue to exploit his problem. More time in the pocket means more comfort for Jason Campbell.

The moment Jason Campbell stops tipping pass plays will be the same day the Raiders give him enough time to throw. Campbell has a longer than normal delivery and he needs the extra time to properly deliver the ball.

If the Raiders can pass block more effectively and Campbell can correct his rolling start the Raiders passing game could really take flight.

No one wants to see Kyle Boller starting for the Raiders. Even worse would be Shane Lechler or Terrelle Pryor. So the Raiders must give Campbell time and he must be smart and avoid preventable injuries.

 

How Do They Finish?

There are just too many problems to confidently say the Raiders are a playoff team. With a tough schedule and the unknowns the Raiders will have their struggles this season.

8-8, +-2 wins. The Raiders could gel and win 10 with corrections to the major trouble areas or regress and have great difficulty winning six. Hue Jackson talks a good game and handles Al Davis well, but Davis is much more difficult boss when the Raiders aren’t winning.

The first four games will be a barometer for the Raiders. If the Raiders start 1-3, perhaps six wins is in their future. If they go 3-1, maybe they can get to 10. A 2-2 start might just mean another .500 season.

The 2011 Breakout Player Will Be…

 Posted by at 8:30 AM  8 Responses »
Sep 082011
 

Darrius Heyward-Bey.

You read that right. Darrius Heyward-Bey the much maligned first-round draft pick two seasons ago will the be Raiders breakout player.

For the record, I think Matt Shaughnessy is going to have a monster year, but he was good last year. He had seven sacks. He’s hardly unknown to the Raider Nation even if he isn’t a household name around the NFL yet.

Since my primary audience is the Raider Nation, I think is only appropriate to select Heyward-Bey.

Why Darrius Heyward-Bey? What have I seen that makes me think Heyward-Bey will have a breakout season?

Heyward-Bey enters his third season. The theory for a long time was that receivers breakout in their third season. Two years ago Football Outsiders examined this theory. The results were that receives were equally likely to breakout in their second, third and even fourth year.

As raw as Heyward-Bey was entering the league, it only makes sense that he would take some time to develop.  Given he didn’t breakout in his second year, Heyward-Bey still has two seasons to do so. It’s possible he never breaks out, but I’ll take a rough 1/3 shot that he does this season.

In addition to this being a prime year for Heyward-Bey, the Raiders brought in offensive coordinator Al Saunders. Saunders is known for his ability to develop receivers. It has been said Raiders receivers need to have great chemistry with their quarterback to be successful in a Saunders offense. Lucky for the Raiders the receivers spent a few weeks with Jason Campbell during the lockout.

Why is it whenever a player is asked for a breakout player they say Darrius Heyward-Bey? Aside from all the wise cracks about it being written into their contracts, what are the players seeing?

What the Raiders are likely seeing is Heyward-Bey’s speed and size put to good use in practice and away from the critical eyes of the media. Give Heyward-Bey credit, he works hard. Other players see how much work Heyward-Bey puts in and his raw talent at practice and make a guess.

You either have great hands or you don’t. Heyward-Bey will never be a real natural hands catcher, but he has shown he is able to do it at times. He’s not a perfect receiver, but that does not mean he is unable to be a productive receiver.

The Raiders may also be changing how they use Heyward-Bey. Instead of having him run deep so much he may be incorporated into the short and intermediate passing game. This gives him less time to think and he can rely more on his instincts.

Expect at least a doubling of Heyward-Bey’s production this season, if not more.

For the first time in his career everything might be going for Heyward-Bey. Stability at quarterback, an offensive coordinator known for developing receivers and an offense that is desperately trying to establish their passing identity.

 

 

20 Bold Predictions 2011

 Posted by at 11:48 AM  1 Response »
Sep 072011
 

What can you expect of the Raiders this season? More on that in the season preview later this week. This is about bold predictions. We will revist them at the end of the season and see how we did. I try to keep this as positive as possible so this is going to have a homer-like vibe to it. Just know, this is bold predictions. Hitting on 1/3 of them is probably an excellent hit rate, like baseball.

1. Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

2. Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

3. Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

4. Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

5. Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

6. Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

7. Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

8. Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

9. The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

10. The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

11. The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

12. The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

13. The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

14. The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

15. The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

16. Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

17. Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

18. Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

19. The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

20. Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

 

 

Raiders Served ‘Vanilla’ This Preseason

 Posted by at 7:30 AM  8 Responses »
Sep 062011
 

Remember the dumb brother from the movie “Corky Romano”? Trying to order rum raisin nut, rocky road, then pistachio. The guy keeps telling him we only have the three flavors on the sign; Vanilla, Chocolate, Strawberry. That’s what Hue Jackson has served us this pre-season, a big cup of vanilla-flavored offense. Which is perfectly fine, he gets to see what the players can execute and at the same time doesn’t expose too much to other teams.

Insert one Chuck Bresnahan. The old/new defensive coordinator re-hired by Al Davis in the off-season. When he was initially brought in his role on the staff was not given, was he the linebackers coach? This leads one to believe Al had someone else in mind that he wasn’t able to land for the position of defensive coordinator. So after a week or so the Raiders quietly named Chuck the coordinator and everyone said “oh….”.

Bresnahan went into this preseason with a defense who just lost its biggest name, Nnamdi Asomugha. His goal, to develop the already in place young talent the Raiders had collected in the previous years. And to do it with a familiar style, one he was a part of for 5 years under the Gruden era. How’s that vanilla ice cream tasting? The Raiders wrapped up the pre-season 32nd in total defense. 30th against the pass, 28th against the run. Maybe most disturbing is that they finished 28th in sacks with 5. Yep, 5 sacks in  four games.

This from a defensive pass rush that was supposed to be the strength of the defense. After watching the games a few times I don’t think I have ever witnessed worse line stunts. It’s almost as if Bresnahan designed the stunts to go through the same gaps. Now, this might be player execution, but let me remind you this is the same defensive line that finished last pre-season 3rd overall with 13 sacks. They also were 8th in total yards.

Bresnahan also hasn’t seemed to solve the Raiders problem of giving up the back-breaking 3rd and long conversion. Look at this sequence to open the Seahawks game: 1st play they line up in the base press man, Huff continues to show his more physical aggressive play and blows up the run off right. 2nd play its the same formation and Huff and Shaughnessy blow up the run off left. Everything’s looking good right? Finally, the Raiders D is starting to look normal. Then, Bresnahan blitzes Kamerion Wimbley, Rolando McClain and Stevie Brown. Wait, what? Stevie Brown? Result is a screen pass converts the 3rd and 15 for Seattle.

I watched that play at least 10 times, McClain was slow in shooting his gap, and Stevie Brown didn’t seem to notice how Leon Washington let him run by him. Stevie Brown made a name for himself last pre-season by having a ‘nose’ for the ball and being a playmaker in the defensive backfield. He hasn’t shown anything that warrants him being sent on a blitz. Not after Michael Huff had just blown up the first 2 plays.

Last year the Bresnahan lead defense of the Florida Tuskers lead the UFL in sacks. Impressive? Maybe, only problem is that league has rules against more than 6 guys rushing the passer and has to have 4 down lineman on all plays. Now it is just pre-season and Chuck might not be wanting to show anything to the league, but the lack of timely blitzing that has seemed to work for every other team so far is unsettling. More vanilla anyone?

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