Combine Report: Monday

 Posted by at 6:22 PM  No Responses »
Feb 252008
 

1. Keith Rivers injury keeps him from running. This is a re-occurring injury and could effect his draft stock.

2. Chris Long dominated the combine. However, even he admits he is going to need work if someone wants him to be a 3-4 OLB. 4.75 dash. 34″ vert 10′ 4″ broad jump

3. Vernon Gholston was the best combine performer at DE. He benched 37 (1st), ran 4.64 (3rd), 35.5″ vert (1st) 10′ 4″ broad jump

4. Sedrick Ellis had a solid performance. The Senior Bowl really hyped him up, but I’ve been saying and I’ve had at least one scout confirm my notions that he is more of a top 15 pick than a top 5 pick. I like him, but I think that if we are looking for a run stuffer Ellis isn’t our guy.

5. Dorsey’s pro day will be huge because of the injury concerns. I expect him to plummet if he doesn’t do well at the pro day, because of the injury concerns.

6. LB’s looked unspectacular overall. Woodyard looked like pretty good.

7. Trevor Laws lacked the agility. He has good strength and leverage and motor, but seems to lack movement and may have trouble getting off blocks.

For all the combine measurables click here.

Picking the Studs Weeding Out the Duds

 Posted by at 7:22 AM  No Responses »
Feb 252008
 

So I did some digging around on the WWW and found this article about bust percentages in the NFL draft.

Players Picked in First Round & Bust Percentages
OL — 70 – 31 percent
DE — 55 – 31 percent
CB — 52 – 29 percent
WR — 51 – 45 percent
LB — 48 – 16 percent
DT — 42 – 33 percent
RB — 41 – 49 percent
QB — 30 – 53 percent
S — 19 – 11 percent

According to these number there is a 34% chance overall. The author of the article was pretty accurate his selections could be guys such as

Joe Thomas, Gaines Adams, Adam Carriker, LaRon Landry, Brandon Merriweather, Patrick Willis, Amobi Okoye

You could add to that Reggie Nelson who had a great year.

Apply these percentages to the latest Mel Kiper’s top 25, Mike Mayock’s top 20 and Scott Wright’s top 32 (26 made at least two of the prognosticators lists). I want to compare complete 31 team mocks (No NE) when I can get my hands on all three.

OL — Long, Clady, Williams, Otah (1 bust rounding normally)
DE — Campbell, Long, Harvey, Gholston, Merling (2 busts)
CB — Talib, McKelvin, Jenkins (1 bust)
WR — Kelly, Sweed, Manningham (1 bust)
LB — Conner, Rivers (0 busts)
DT — Dorsey, Ellis, Balmer (1 Bust)
RB — Stewart, Mendenhall, McFadden, Jones (2 busts)
QB — Ryan (53% chance to be a bust)
S — None (Kenny Phillips was just dropped off of Kiper’s board (So he is still a part of his top 32 I presume, therefore I can say with 89% certainty he will not be a bust).

Now for predictions:
OL Bust: Otah (Just a guess and a feeling)
DE Busts: campbell, Harvey
CB Bust: Jenkins
WR Bust: Manningham
DT Bust: Dorsey (injuries)
RB Busts: Jones (Numbers say two, but I disagree with the numbers in this case)
QB Bust: Ryan (Can you say INTs?)
S Bust: N/A

Combine Report: Sunday

 Posted by at 8:49 PM  No Responses »
Feb 242008
 

1. The biggest talk is going to be McFadden. He ran 4.27 and officially they gave him a 4.33. Lets call it 4.3 speed. We are all aware speed is just a gauge. This certainly will help his stock regardless. Mayock and Faulk (A HOF RB) both said McFadden best fits in a one cut and go system (Sounds like the Raiders). Look I am not saying we should for sure take McFadden, but he certainly fits the mold. Heck he is a lot like Fargas coming out but younger and faster. If he falls to #4, we have to consider it. So fans better get used to the fact that we may take him if he is there at #4. He also had a 10′ 10″ Broad jump and 33″ vertical. The fast time doesn’t surprise me, he has been training at the Michael Johnson Performance Center. Just for the record: I guessed McFadden’s 40-time EXACTLY

2. Devin Thomas looked very quick and natural in drills and ran very well.

3. Mendenhall ran well and has good size. 4.4

4. Stewart ran very well considering he is a big 235. 4.4

5. Eddie Royal looked good and natural with good burst and speed in drills.

6. Adrius Bowman ran very slow and his stock will continue to drop. He ran a 4.7

7. Chris Johnson 4.24 is blistering, but he lacks size.

8. Manningham ran much slower than expected. 4.6. That should hurt his stock because he was expected to run in the 4.4 range.

9. Joe Flacco and Chad Henne look like the top two QBs to me. For some reason people like Matt Ryan. I guess they like interceptions.

10. Rumor is Michael Huff is “available for trade” I am not sure if that means we put him on the block or if other people have inquired and we listened. I think that would be a large mistake. He is only in his 3rd year and he hasn’t even had a chance to play FS yet. Few thought he was a SS coming in. Most people thought CB or FS. I agree and we need to give him a shot to do that. What are we going to go with Stu and Eugene as the safeties? That said, rumors are just that, rumors.

11. Sedrick Ellis benched 225 pounds 34 times. Nice, but I think a few less than he or many expected.

12. Vernon Gholston benched it 37 times. That is STRONG for a DE.

13. Dorsey Damaged? Sources indicate the injury he sustained in 2006 is more serious than people thought. Dorsey’s injury history makes me want to say…nah.

Combine Report: Saturday

 Posted by at 8:59 PM  No Responses »
Feb 232008
 

My observations from today’s combine workouts. I claim to be no expert, just observations and some analysis from a fanatical fan. I add what I can offer to the mix. If you missed the workouts and don’t trust the media to be honest or accurate, here are the guys I observed that stood out.

1. Jake Long, OT is pretty solid, but I don’t think he is a Joe Thomas. Probably a little better than Levi Brown. He is strong, decent 10 yard split and good footwork. I have to agree with Mayock. Pro Bowl RT, decent LT.

2. Dustin Keller, TE really impressed. He had the second most bench reps, the fastest 40 time, highest vertical and was catching a lot of passes. He might be a solid pass catching TE for someone in round 3 or 4. Carlson the top rated TE looks like a poor man’s Zach Miller.

3. Jeff Otah, OT has nice speed but didn’t run as fast as expected. He isn’t very fluid and bends at the waist and in drills he was very high. I’d say a small stock drop for him.

4. Jeremy Zuttah, OG looked fluid, ran with good burst, and had pretty nice footwork in drills. The footwork part was most impressive since it was supposed to be his biggest weakness. He lacks ideal size, but might make a good zone blocking lineman. He also benched very well, second only to Jake Long. I’d bump his stock quite a bit for zone blocking teams. I’d like us to grab him late. I liked him a lot.

5. Chris Williams, OT is athletic and has the size. Good burst off the line, but he put up just 21 reps on the bench. NFL strength coaches will help him, but in my mind he is a project more than a guy who can step right in.

6. Chilo Rachal, OG looked fluid, with good burst and athleticism. The footwork in drills was okay. He didn’t bench among the leaders and needs to get stronger. I don’t think he is as good as he is rated, but I do like his athletic build and good size.

7. Kolomona Kapanui, TE. I’ve seen play live. He lacks deep speed, but the man plays faster than he ran. He also has good hands and is tough. He benched well and looked good in drills. Project from a small school, but transfered there from USC where he had academic problems on a scholarship. Has the talent. If he learns to block better can be a solid TE for someone. Probably will go undrafted or go in the last round.

Combine Report: Friday

 Posted by at 6:03 PM  2 Responses »
Feb 222008
 

1. Lost the coin flip. So there is no need for the NFL to try to make us do it again. The only way I see drafting four as a large negative is if Dorsey falls to #3 and Atlanta picks him. Otherwise I don’t think it does anything but save us money. It may also reduce what we could get should we trade down, but it will also make it easier to move down should we try.

2. DeSean Jackson measured in at just 5’9″ and 169 pounds. Huge knock to his draft stock for 3 inches and 3 pounds? How can they list him at 6’0″ and he actually be 5’9″…that is funny stuff. I can usually shrug off 1 inch as rounding…but come on Cal. He has also been training for the combine, which means he may have weighed less during his playing years.

3. Rob Ryan insists the rumors about him being fired are fiction. You have to wonder if we have someone in the organization with a vendetta that is spreading these rumors. Rumor also is Al Davis is NOT impressed with Rich Snead, maybe it is mutual?

4. McFadden weighs in at 211, Mendenhall 225, Stewart 235. I am a little disappointed that McFadden didn’t make it up to 215 or 220. IMO at 211 he lacks every-down size. On the flip side, if Stewart can run a sub 4.5 forty at 235, he might jump up my rankings more than he already has. Mendenhall’s 225 is ideal, but he will have to run sub 4.5 as well, and why not take Stewart who has ten more pounds of beef at the same speed?

5. Rob Ryan is a tough guy to read. He said in training camp Moses was good, but Richardson was better, and guess who made the team? Well, he is at it again. This time he said Gerard Warren was playing at a Pro Bowl level before his hamstring injury. If that is the case and Dorsey is gone by 4 (which is a near certainty), we could opt to take a long hard look at other positions. Clemons and Kelly are also likely to be re-signed leaving only the Sapp gap. Not as thin as we might think if all this is true. It would be a disappointing move considering how poorly the line played last year, but maybe if Burgess gains some weight like Ryan suggests that would help. Having a healthy Kelly and Warren also couldn’t hurt. We never really had those two playing on the line at the same time.

6. Shaun Rogers will be dealt within a week. Kelly, Warren, Rogers, Burgess and Richardson, Clemons, Sands backing up.Rogers can be easily had for our second round pick. You have to be at least a little interested don’t you?

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