Free Agency Strategy: Play Moneyball

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Feb 272012
 

A lot has been made of the Raiders lack of draft selections in the 2012 NFL draft. The Raiders have just two, but are likely to be awarded a few more by the NFL when they announce compensatory picks in late March.

The best pick that can be awarded is a pick at the end of the third round and compensatory selections can’t be traded.

In the NFL there is a salary cap and salary floor to keep all the teams as competitive as possible, but when it comes to draft selection they are traded like currency for acquiring players or more selections.

With such limited resources this offseason, the Oakland Raiders may need to take a page from the Oakland Athletics to stay competitive.

The most important lesson of Moneyball was the A’s determined a way to find value in the market. They did more with less and that’s exactly what the Raiders need to do this offseason.

 

Don’t Overvalue the Cornerbacks

Four of the 12 playoff teams in 2011 were ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense and three of those four teams were ranked in the top four overall. The Cincinnati Bengals were the lone exception having the 9th ranked passing defense in 2011.

The remaining eight playoff teams were all well below average pass defenses and the four worst pass defenses were all playoff teams.

It was an extraordinary year for passing and a terrible year for pass defense. Most teams will be in the market for help in secondary having determined the secondary is now an area of weakness. There are no shortage of options at cornerback to assist these teams.

It’s obvious that a great pass defense is not required to win a Super Bowl and with limited draft picks and salary cap room, the Raiders should play closer attention to other areas and not overvalue the available cornebacks.

The market is going to inflate the value of the available options, particularly Brent Grimes, Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rodgers.

The Raiders should look for bargain options like Tim Jennings, Williams Gay, Richard Marshall and Terrell Thomas to see if one might be able to help solidify the group, but the Raiders should avoid the inflated costs of the top cornerbacks.

 

Buy Generic

The Raiders have some decisions to make when it comes to player contracts. Kamerion Wimbley, Aaron Curry and Michael Huff need to drastically reduce their cap numbers to stick around.

There is still time to work things out, but the Raiders strategy has to be to find cheaper alternatives that can accomplish the same tasks if one or more of them are released. In some cases the generics could actually be better which could steer McKenzie to release and not worry about restructuring the player.

Manny Lawson would be a good sign a.nd fill-in at linebacker Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver was his position coach when he played for the 49ers. Lawson is similar to Curry. He can rush, but he’s not a particularly good pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run. Dennis Allen would be able to utilize Lawson is a variety of ways as a blitzer.

The Baltimore Ravens have plenty of free agents and they will not be able to sign them all. One that stands out is strong-side linebacker Jarrett Johnson. Johnson is particularly good at stopping the run, which has been a problem for the Raiders since 2002.

Johnson will be a popular free agent, but he’s been extremely durable. Johnson has played in 129 straight games for the Ravens, a franchise record. Johnson is 31 and that could keep his costs down on the open market.

Jim Leonhard has been extremely consistent for the New York Jets, but he’s 29 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s not likely to command a huge sum in free agency and the Raiders could use a strong cover safety if they are forced to put Michael Huff on the street inside of pay him $8 million in 2012.

 

Find a Big Man

If the Raiders are planning to play the 3-4 with any regularity they will need a nose tackle that can draw the double team up the middle.

John Henderson is likely to be released due to his contact and that leaves room for run defender on the inside.

Available nose tackle’s include Antonio Garay, Sione Pouha, Paul Soliai, Aubrayo Franklin and Kelly Gregg.

Franklin and Gregg would be the perfect players for the Raiders considering their cost would be minimal. The Raiders wouldn’t need a full-time player unless they planned on shifting to the 3-4 permanently.

Pouha, Garay and Soliai are likely to be cost prohibitive for the Raiders and they will look at some of the cheaper options.

If Tommy Kelly is released the Raiders could look at Broderick Bunkley to play defensive tackle. He improved drastically under Dennis Allen in Denver and was one of the better run defenders in the entire NFL last season.

A linebacker and a tackle could help solidify a run defense that has ranked routinely in the bottom of the league.

 

Get a Bush Replacement

Unless the Raiders can work out a favorable deal with running back Michael Bush, he’ll hit the open market where he is likely to fetch more than the Raiders are willing to pay. It would be a surprise if the Raiders placed the franchise tag on Bush consider the hefty price tag.

Bush departure would leave a hole behind oft-injured starter Darren McFadden. Oft-injured slasher Taiwan Jones and special teams ace Rock Cartwright are the other two backs. Jones may or may not be ready for an expanded roles in the offense. Cartwright is strictly a special teams player, but he’s also a free agent.

The Raiders either need a big bruiser or just another back that can run Greg Knapps’s zone-blocking system effectively.

Good news for the Raiders is that the market for backs is deep and not many are buying.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis would be a good option because he knows how to pass protect having come from New England. Greg Knapp is much more run heavy, but it is nice knowing that the player in the game can put a body on someone to spare the quarterback a hit.

Mike Tolbert is another back that knows how to pass protect and would be great second option to McFadden. He’s built like a bowling ball and could be uses in rush and pass situations.

Justin Forsett would be an inexpensive option for the Raiders. He’s not a big back, but he had a career year in Greg Knapp’s zone-blocking system. He’d be a good pickup as a true backup to McFadden and may actually be able to steal enough carries away from McFadden to keep him fresh.

McKenzie should also keep open the possibility that Bush could be re-signed at a reasonable price.

 

Take Advantage of Value in the Marketplace

If Reggie McKenzie realizes a certain player is being undervalued by market, he should sign the player and rehab his value.

The Raiders could have 6 or 7 good defensive ends and still sign a defensive end that is being drastically undervalued. It’s better to sign a good player for an affordable price and let the coaching staff worry about how to utilize the player.

There’s always room on the roster for good players, so if McKenzie thinks the player is good, the coaches will figure out how to put him in position to win games.

While the Raiders will be hunting in free agency for players at positions of need, they should also keep their options open at other positions to see if the league might be undervaluing receiver, defensive end, offensive tackle, etc.

That means the Raiders should be talking to everyone, including the top free agent receivers to get an idea for what the market is going to look like and what sort of deal the players are expecting.

It may be that the Raiders need to strike now to land a number one receiver, but they wont know until there is competition in the marketplace.

10 Biggest Roster Holes

 Posted by at 10:30 AM  No Responses »
Feb 162012
 

The Raiders don’t have many draft picks, but it doesn’t mean there aren’t several holes the Raiders would like to fill through the draft. Reggie McKenzie may try to add more picks via trade and will also look to add players that aren’t drafted.

Not all of these holes will be filled with draft picks, but McKenzie would do well to address as many as he can.

1. Inside Linebacker

If the Raiders plan to play more 3-4, they will need to add one or two inside linebackers. Rolando McClain is likely to get one more year to prove he isn’t a draft bust, but he will need help inside. Travis Goethel has been given an opportunity to play, but he can’t stay healthy.

Aaron Curry may be able to move inside when the Raiders decide to play 3-4, but that leaves a large hole at outside linebacker. 

2. Outside Linebacker

Kamerion Wimbley is the only lock to make the roster from last year’s group of outside linebackers. Curry will need to restructure his $5.7 cap number to stick and he also may become one of the two inside linebackers in a 3-4.

Factoring in the need for backups, the Raiders could be looking for two or three outside linebackers and at least one through the draft. 

3. Nose Tackle

Conversion to the 3-4 is not going to be complete without the big man in the middle. The Raiders need to look for a space-eater in the draft that can anchor a 3-4 for years to come.

The popularity of the 3-4 makes nose tackles hot commodities, but there is occasionally one that slips due to weight and work ethic concerns that can drafted with a lower-round pick.

It would then be up to the Raiders coaching and training staff to groom the young man into a pro. 

4. Cornerback

Stanford Routt was released last week, leaving Chris Johnson, DeMarcus Van Dyke and Chimdi Chekwa as the only cornerbacks on the roster. Johnson also has a large cap number and it is unknown if he has been able to recover mentally from the murder of his sister last season.

Chekwa might find himself moving to safety and that could leave Van Dyke all alone at the position. McKenzie will need to find several cornerbacks and hope the competition elevates the play of a couple of them.

It’s a deep cornerback draft and McKenzie has plenty of time to find a good one. Tramon Williams is good cornerback and the Packers didn’t even need to use a draft pick to find him. McKenzie will need to work some of that magic. 

5. Free Safety

Michael Huff has an $8 million cap number and will either need to restructure or he’ll be released next month. Hiram Eugene isn’t likely to be fully recovered from his femur injury. Chekwa could move to safety, but who knows if he would be ready to start at the position after one offseason.

That leaves free safety as a position of significant need. McKenzie may find a cornerback in the draft that can convert to free safety or an underappreciated ball hawk late in the draft with good instincts and poor measurables.

If Huff restructures, there is also a decent chance he converts to cornerback, leaving free safety as a need for the Raiders despite his retention. 

6. Strong Safety

Tyvon Branch is likely to be re-signed, but he is an unrestricted free agent. Branch could decide to see what his value is on the open market. If he tests the water, there are plenty of other teams with a need at strong safety that have significantly more money to throw at Branch.

Branch’s departure would be painful and open up a spot for the Raiders to find a player via the draft. 

7. Left Guard

Stefen Wisniewski should eventually be moved to center and the Raiders don’t have a left guard that can execute the zone-blocking system.

McKenzie will be looking for a good pass-blocker that struggled with man blocking in college and is likely to fall in the draft. A mobile and svelte lineman with quick feet will work for the Raiders’ purposes.

Even a late-drafted rookie might be able to start between Jared Veldheer and Stefen Wisniewski. 

8. Right Tackle

Barnes was never the long-term answer at right tackle and the Raiders need to find someone better. Joseph Barksdale and Bruce Campbell are still relatively unknown commodities and who knows how quickly they will pick up the zone-blocking system.

There is opportunity for McKenzie to find the long-term solution at right tackle in the draft and he should make every effort to fill the hole utilizing one of the Raiders’ few draft selections. 

9. Running back

Conventional wisdom is not always correct, but says a running back can be found late in the draft. The zone-blocking system has turned many undrafted or late-drafted players into stars, including Arian Foster and Terrell Davis.

Michael Bush is a good running back, but he’s likely to cost the Raiders far more than he would be worth on the open market. McKenzie would be wise to let Bush test the waters while still attempting to re-sign him.

If Bush does find a new home, the Raiders will need a suitable backup for Darren McFadden. Taiwan Jones will be in the mix, but he has an injury history of his own. Marcel Reece might be able to fill the void if and when he is re-signed. 

10. Quarterback

The Raiders will begin the transition to the west coast offense. As long as Carson Palmer is the quarterback, the Raiders will not be able to run the system to its full potential.

There are a number of sleeper quarterbacks in the draft this season that could be perfect and McKenzie should study these men to determine if one could be groomed to replace Palmer is a couple years.

Any drafted quarterback may also become the backup quarterback by default. Kyle Boller isn’t likely to be back and Terrelle Pryor is in limbo and could be converted to tight end.

Offseason Shopping List

 Posted by at 3:31 PM  No Responses »
Feb 072012
 

As seen on Bleacher Report.

The first offseason without the presence of legendary owner Al Davis will prove to be the most intriguing one in decades for the Oakland Raiders.

Reggie McKenzie takes over as the main football executive and has already been working to shape the Raiders into his team. McKenzie started with the head coach and has been interviewing and evaluating his front office staff and scouting department over the past few weeks.

Raiders fans are accustomed to coaching change, but front office and roster changes have always been subtle from year to year. Al Davis was the final decision-maker for the Raiders and he would slowly sour on players and wholesale changes would always come at the expense of the head coach.

 

McKenzie’s philosophy will differ from the late Davis’ philosophy. Davis loved speed, but he was just as interested in his size, strength, speed and other measurable traits as he was with a fast time in the 40-yard dash. Former Raiders and Packers general manager Ron Wolf told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel that McKenzie was one of the few that can tell who can play and who can’t play.

McKenzie will like some of the players on the Davis-constructed team and he won’t like some.

To go about creating a shopping list for the Raiders offseason, it is first necessary to make an educated guess as to the weaknesses McKenzie sees in the roster and who is available to strengthen the team.

The Raiders will be lucky to get pick 97 in April’s draft, so expect McKenzie to spend time looking for players that can help solve the Raiders defensive problems in free agency. McKenzie will also need to solidify the Raiders offensive line by finding inexpensive fits for the zone-blocking system.

    Middle Linebacker (Need 1)

The Raiders will enter 2012 with four linebackers: Rolando McClain, Aaron Curry, Kamerion Wimbley and Travis Goethel. The Raiders will need more bodies and McKenzie may decide that replacing two or three of the starting linebackers is necessary.

McClain quickly wore out his welcome in Oakland and McKenzie can safety look for replacements now as opposed to giving McClain a third season as would typically be the case with a draft pick.

The Stud: D’Qwell Jackson, MLB

Jackson was a force up the middle for the Browns. He’s expressed a desire to stay in the Cleveland and the Browns could use the franchise tag to keep Jackson’s services, but if he hits the open market McKenzie should be interested.

The Young Star: Curtis Lofton, MLB

Lofton is just 25 and will be looking for a lucrative contract. McKenzie has said he will stay away from overpriced players and Lofton could qualify, but McKenzie also needs the stud middle linebacker the Raiders haven’t had in years.

The Technician: Stephen Tulloch, MLB

Technique is one of Tulloch’s strengths and the discipline needed to be a good technician could be useful to Dennis Allen and the Raiders defense. He’ll have plenty of offers out there, but he’s certainly a player the Raiders could look at to shore up the substandard group of linebackers.

The Familiar: Joe Mays, MLB

Just as it is easier to install an offense when the quarterback already knows the system, Mays was the “quarterback” of the Broncos defense under Raiders’ head coach Dennis Allen. He’d be an ideal candidate to join the Raiders and steal the starting job from Rolando McClain.

    4-3 Outside Linebacker (Need: unknown)

The Stud: Erin Henderson

Henderson is an all-around outside linebacker that could really help out the Raiders defense, but the Vikings would be crazy to let him walk. If he becomes available the Raiders should consider his services.

The Value Proposition: Chris Chamberlain

He’s a solid linebacker that wouldn’t cost as much as many of the other top options. He’d compete with the Raiders’ other linebackers for a starting job.

The Familiar: Wesley Woodyard

He played more than 300 snaps in Dennis Allen’s defense last season. If he comes over from the Broncos he would compete for a job and help the Raiders quickly install and implement Allen’s defense.

    3-4 Outside Linebacker (Need: Unknown)

The Best Available: Anthony Spencer

He’s benefited from DeMarcus Ware on the opposite side, but he’s a good player in his own right and has proved he can play. It seems the Raiders will remain a 4-3 team and Spencer will find a better home in a 3-4 scheme, but should the Raiders make a switch he could come into play.

The Tarver Terror: Manny Lawson

Lawson became expendable in San Francisco, but he became a solid player for the Bengals and he’d be complementary linebacker to the group the Raiders have now. defensive coordinator Jason Tarver has coached him before and he played well during his time under Tarver in San Francisco.

    Cornerback (Need 1

)

The Throwback: Cortland Finnegan

He’s a physical cornerback to pair with Stanford Routt. He should be more available and more affordable than Brent Grimes. Finnegan is also good in run support, a problem area for the Raiders in 2011. The concern here is how the NFL will officiate a “dirty” player on the most penalized team in the league.

The Cross-Bay Badass: Carlos Rogers

He played like a top-five cornerback in 2011 and figures to be paid handsomely this offseason. The 49ers would like to retain him, but may have trouble retaining Rogers and Dashon Goldson. He’ll command big bucks, but McKenzie needs to quickly find a player to play opposite Routt.

The Rival Ringer: Brandon Carr

If the Raiders show interest in the 25-year-old Carr, he’ll be able to leverage the Chiefs and Raiders against each other for his services. He’s young and seems to improve every year. He’s a good No. 2 cornerback and has room to grow and time to do it.

    Safety (Need 1 or 2)

The Raider: Tyvon Branch

The Raiders will look to retain Branch. He’s been an underappreciated player on the Raiders defense for many years and Dennis Allen’s defensive scheme may finally feature him.

The Injured Enigma: LaRon Landry

He’s been a star when healthy, but he suffered a nasty Achilles injury and his future is uncertain. The Raiders may be able to swipe a premium talent for a decent price, but he’ll need to pass a physical.

Mr. Inconsistent: Michael Griffin

What are you going to get from Griffin? History shows Griffin is either a Pro Bowl -aliber safety or a backup-caliber safety and nothing in between. That’s a bit disturbing, but the inconsistency might make him more affordable.

The Heavy-Hitter: Dashon Goldson

The 49ers will not lose Carlos Rogers and Goldson, but they will have to choose. If Goldson hits the open market he could be an option for the Raiders as he was last offseason. The fans will overrate Goldson’s season based on a few highlight reel plays and his hard-hitting style.

    Offensive Line (Need 2)

The Forgotten: Sean Locklear, OT

He signed a one-year deal in Washington and didn’t start. The Raiders will be moving back the the zone-blocking scheme and Locklear would seem like a logical and inexpensive option to fix the revolving door at right tackle.

Cable’s Contributor: Breno Giacomini, OT

Giacomini spent three seasons without getting much playing time, but he started playing consistently in Tom Cable’s zone-blocking system in Seattle and came on strong toward the end of the season. Another affordable option to consider at right tackle.

The System Fit: Chris Myers, OC

If the Raiders feel comfortable with Stefen Wisniewski remaining at left guard, there are two zone-blocking centers available this offseason. One is Houston’s Chris Myers. The Raiders offensive line coach was assistant offensive line coach for the Texans last year and Greg Knapp the quarterback coach. Myers is an interesting option if the Raiders can steal him away from the Texans.

The System Fit: Scott Wells, OC

Like Myers, Wells is a zone-blocking center. It could be difficult for Wisniewski to pick up and make the line calls in a zone-blocking system initially. Wells or Myers would be ideal players to help the line. The addition of a zone-blocking tackle and center would solidify the Raiders’ offensive front.

Looking Forward: Raiders 2012 Free Agents

 Posted by at 7:27 PM  16 Responses »
Jan 022012
 

Khalif Barnes – Weakest link on the offensive line with youth behind him. Raiders will look for for other options. It’s not as if there aren’t a dozen Khalif’s on the street each year.

Darryl Blackstock – Was a Chuck Bresnahan guy, but found a home on special teams. Would have to make the team as a reserve LB and special teams guy next training camp. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him back as a camp body or gone entirely.

Kyle Boller – Hue didn’t have enough confidence to turn to Boller. Expect the Raiders to look elsewhere for a backup to Carson Palmer.

Jerome Boyd – Was nothing more than a reserve and special teams player. Some good moments and some very bad ones. Camp body again and fate will depend on the defensive coordinator.

Tyvon Branch – About the only consistent producer in the secondary. Raiders will want to bring him back.

Desmond Bryant – He’s been great in limited action and can play inside and out. Key reserve.

Michael Bush – He’ll find a home as a starter if the Raiders don’t franchise tag him.

Jason Campbell – Good as gone. He’ll find a place to start with yet another new coach and coordinator.

Cooper Carlisle – Has proven surprisingly versatile in scheme. Good veteran. Raiders could go for new right side or keep Carlisle in the mix.

Rock Cartwright – Commitment to Excellence Award winner in consecutive years and the Raiders special teams captain. He’ll be back.

Matt Giordano – Had good moments, but unless the Raiders move Michael Huff to corner full time there is a good chance the Raiders address the lack of depth at cornerback and move Huff back to free safety full time.

Quentin Groves – Good as gone. Aaron Curry trade was made strictly to take him out of the starting lineup.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Came in to be a familiar face for Palmer, hardly played down the stretch.

Bryan McCann – With a healthy Ford, Moore and Jones hard to imagine he is back, but showed enough to catch on elsewhere.

Jarvis Moss – May have played his last down in Oakland as Desmond Bryant gobbled up his snaps after he got injured and has only occasionally flashed pass rush skills. Liability against the run.

Marcel Reece – Better believe the Raiders will bring him back.

Samson Satele – Did he play well enough to keep Stefen Wisniewksi at left guard? Maybe.

Chaz Schilens – It comes down to this: Raiders have 4 younger receivers under contract.

Trevor Scott – Hardly saw the field this season. Once a potential star…now just a ball of gas.

Lito Sheppard – Picked up off the street because the Raiders had injuries. Will be there again next year.

Davis Has Given Jackson Tools For Offensive Success

 Posted by at 12:00 PM  No Responses »
Sep 212011
 

Can you remember when the Raiders were without a real deep threat? On multiple occasions the Raiders had a roster filled with receivers who could only run in a straight line? The Raiders also had their fair share of divas at the position. Remember when Oakland’s pass offense revolved around dump offs and check downs? Remember when it seemed Justin Fargas was the only reliable weapon the Raiders had?

Do you remember all the years Zach Miller led the Raiders in receptions and receiving yardage? Do you remember feeling the entire Raiders team squawk after Miller signed with Seattle?

I am sure you remember the excitement in the media when the Raiders announced that Kevin Boss had picked Oakland over his other suitors. All the articles stated, “Well, he is a better blocker,” and Al Davis let a pro bowl tight end slip away. The Raiders were blasted for letting Miller go to Seattle and accused of taking Miller’s talent for granted. Kevin Boss has yet to play a snap and the Raiders haven’t skipped a beat on offense.

The Raiders offense has actually greatly improved since Miller’s departure. The Raiders are averaging over 370 yards and 29 points a game while averaging 5.9 yards per play so far this season. The Raiders boast the second leading running back in the NFL and even with four offensive players inactive, the Raiders still posted 454 total yards. If the defense can ever play consistently the Raiders will be a playoff team.

The truth is, with as many weapons as the Raiders have, even Brandon Myers would have the fans forgetting about Zach Miller. Did Al Davis know something we did not? Given an off-season with no workouts that his offense would gel together without relying on a premium tight end? Not signing Zach Miller saved Al Davis up to 20 million dollars and given the offensive production thus far that money can be put to better use on the defensive side of the ball.

Al Davis had faith in Jason Campbell. Davis gave Campbell the weapons and a coach to get the best out of him. Davis knows that Campbell, like Michael Bush, is in his contract year. Players generally perform their best in contract years. Even with a list of injures, the Raiders have playmakers. If rookie Denarius Moore receives the playing time he deserves he might have more yards than Julio Jones and A.J. Green combined.

Al Davis record of failures is long, but few give Davis credit for success. Give Davis the credit, he saw something in this offense and saved a lot of money by signing Kevin Boss instead of Zach Miller.

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