Best Case & Worst Case Scenarios For Each Raiders’ Draft Pick

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Mar 162012
 

The Raiders aren’t making much noise in free agency and will attempt to build through the draft. Missing are five of their original seven draft selections and in their place are five players that may contribute in 2012.

A couple more selections may be awarded as compensatory selections, but that is yet to be determined.

What is the best case and worse case scenarios for the Raiders’ 2012 draft? Not only does it depend on the players they draft, but how many they draft and how the players perform they obtained for those picks.

 

1st Round: Carson Palmer

Hue Jackson orchestrated a trade that brought Palmer to Oakland. It was too much to give up, but what’s done is done. The Raiders have their franchise quarterback, right? That’s the hope. The new regime is hitching their wagon to Palmer and putting a new offense around him. There wasn’t many other options for the Raiders.

Best Case: Palmer, with an offseason with the receivers and studying the offense, turns in a pro bowl season and leads the Raiders to their first playoff berth since 2002. Winning the AFC championship game would bump the 2013 pick from a second round to a first round pick and further justify why Hue Jackson traded for him.

Worst Case: Palmer continues to be a turnover machine and the Raiders change the offense to the extent that Palmer is handicapped by his weaknesses. Palmer is average, doesn’t lead the Raiders to the playoffs and never justifies even one of the two picks the Raiders gave up for him.

 

2nd Round: Joseph Barksdale and Taiwan Jones

2011 was the rookie year for Barksdale and Jones and neither produced. Jones was injured and never cracked the rotation at running back and Barkdale spent the entire season as a backup. While the Raiders don’t have their second round pick, they do have a two sophomore’s with a year of NFL experience. The Raiders will be counting some development from both players/

Best Case: Barksdale becomes a solid starter on the offensive line and Taiwan Jones becomes a nightmare speed back that is a threat to take the ball the distance every time he touches the ball.

Worst Case: Both wash out. Barksdale never wins a starting job and is eventually released. Jones has problems with injuries and tries to do too much when he gets the ball.

 

3rd Round: Terrelle Pryor & Draft Pick(s)

It should be intriguing how Greg Knapp works Pryor into the rotation at quarterback. Pryor will have to be patient with the Raiders if he wants to play quarterback. The Raiders could work Pryor into special packages and expand his role as he becomes more comfortable in the offense.

In return for losing Nnamdi Asomugha the Raiders should receive a draft pick. It is expected to be a pick in the third round. The Raiders may receive a second pick in the third round as compensation for losing Zach Miller.

Best Case: Pryor becomes a weapon on offense and takes over for Palmer in a couple of years as the starter. The Raiders get two picks and are able to find a quality defender at cornerback and linebacker.

Worst Case: Pryor isn’t ever a starter and can only play in special packages. Pryor is eventually released.The Raiders don’t receive a compensatory pick until the fourth round.

 

4th Round: Draft Pick(s)

The Raiders could receive a couple of compensatory draft picks for Zach Miller and Robert Gallery in the fourth round. The Raiders original pick in this round was traded for Jason Campbell two years ago.

Best Case: Raiders receive an additional pick in the fourth round for Robert Gallery having received two in the third for Asomugha and Miller. The Raiders find a quality lineman.

Worst Case: Raiders receive only one pick and are forced to try to find a player at a position of need, but because it’s the end of the fourth round the quality prospects at linebacker and cornerback are off the board.

 

5th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

With the 13th pick of the fifth round the Raiders will have their first non-compensatory selection of the 2012 draft. An additional compensatory selection is possible at the end of the fifth for Robert Gallery if they are not awarded one in the fourth, but it is also possible the Raiders don’t receive a compensatory for Gallery at all.

Best case: McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a fifth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fourth.

Worst case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders are unable to move the pick. McKenzie drafts his best player available, but the player will be sitting behind established starters for the next several years.

 

6th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

The Raiders will have the 19th pick in the sixth round. It is one of the Raiders original picks giving the Raiders the option of trading the pick if it benefits them.

Best Case:  McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a sixth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fifth.

Worst Case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders need the pick to find a player to fill out the roster, but McKenzie plays it safe and drafts a role player.

 

7th Round: Aaron Curry

The Raiders traded their seventh-round selection for Aaron Curry last season. Curry and the Raiders had mutual interest in continuing the relationship and worked out a restructured contract in 2012 that saves the Raiders cap space.

Best Case: Curry turns into the pro bowl caliber linebacker he was expected to be when he was drafted out of Wake Forest and solidifies the defense.

Worst Case: Curry remains a liability in coverage and the Raiders have to bring in a player for Curry on third down.

Raiders Free Agency Preview: Why Oakland Must Pursue These 11 Players

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Mar 122012
 

At 1 p.m. PDT, March 13, 2012 the NFL’s free agency period starts and the Raiders must be under the salary cap. There are a number of player contracts that have not yet restructured or otherwise addressed which will likely have an impact on the salary cap and the Raiders’ free agency plans.

Kamerion Wimbley

The two sides aren’t talking and extra guarantees are triggered on Friday and Wimbley is likely to be released before they do. Wimbley’s release would save the Raiders just $2 million in cap space and leave the Raiders without a strong-side linebacker on the roster.

John Henderson

His contract is due to pay him $4.75 million in 2012. It’s far too much for part-time backup with Henderson’s miles. The Raiders would save approximately $4 million by releasing Henderson, but that also leaves the Raiders with a need for a run-stuffing defensive tackle

Tommy Kelly

Kelly’s cap number is nearly $9 million and one would expect a restructured contract would have reduced his $6 million in base salary in order to save the Raiders valuable cap space, but nothing has been announced.

With only a few hours to go before Kelly’s $8.9 million cap number counts against the Raiders, one has to wonder if Kelly is in the team’s future plans.

If the Raiders released both Kelly and Henderson, they would either need to move Lamarr Houston inside or begin the search for a defensive tackle in free agency.

Once the Raiders are comfortably under the cap, they can start trolling the bottom of the free agent market to see if they might be able to land a player or two. Don’t expect the Raiders to land any big fish, they don’t have the cap space to lure the top free agents.

There are a few free agents on the market that can help the Raiders that aren’t elite players and the Raiders should aggressively pursue them.

OC Option 1: Chris Meyers

Greg Knapp has returned to the Raiders and will re-introduce the zone-blocking system to the offensive line. Knapp spent the last two seasons in Houston coaching the quarterbacks and would have worked closely with Meyers. So would have the Raiders new offensive line coach Frank Pollack, as he was the assistant offensive line coach in Houston last season.

Considering Meyer’s ties to the coaching staff and the Raiders’ desire to get a young offensive line up to speed in the scheme quickly, Meyers should be one of the Raiders biggest priorities in free agency.

Meyers shouldn’t cost considerable amounts of money to sign as he only fits in the zone-blocking system.

OC Option 2: Scott Wells

If the Raiders miss out on Meyers they can always take a look at Wells. Wells has a link to the Raiders of his own having been selected by the Green Bay Packers in the seventh round of the 2004 NFL draft during which time Reggie McKenzie was responsible for scouting college players for the Packers.

Wells is also well-versed in the zone-blocking scheme and could help the Raiders jump start the transition. Like Meyers, Wells fits best in the zone-blocking system and that will keep his cost in an affordable range.

DT/NT Option 1: Broderick Bunkley

If the Raiders release Henderson they will be in need of a two-down defensive tackle to support the run.Bunkley played under Dennis Allen last season and fits the two-down run support role perfectly.

Best of all, Bunkley doesn’t figure to cost an arm and a leg in free agency.

DT/NT Option 2: Aubrayo Franklin

Should the Raiders want a nose tackle that offers nearly zero pass rush ability, they might look at an affordable option like Franklin.

Franklin would be great against the run, but the Raiders would have to make sure they had more of a pass rush on the field in nickel and dime situations.

The traditional nose tackle that offers little to no pass rush is a dying breed and the Raiders will have to determine if a specialist like Franklin is worth the cap dollars.

ILB Option 1: Joe Mays

The Raiders desperately need players that can support the run and Dennis Allen also coached Mays last season. While Mays’ coverage ability is merely average, he’ll come cheap enough that the Raiders would use him primarily on running downs.

Rolando McClain would remain the team’s top ILB, but Mays would enable the Raiders to show more 3-4 looks and Mays would definitely push McClain for playing time as the middle linebacker.

OLB Option 1: Manny Lawson

The Bengals turned Lawson into a two-down strong-side linebacker playing in the 4-3 defense. The release of Wimbley would create just that type of need on the Raiders roster.

Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver coached Lawson for five years in San Francisco from 2006 to 2010 and knows his strengths and weaknesses. Lawson excels at defending the run, something the Raiders haven’t done well over the last 10 seasons.

The Raiders shouldn’t waste any time bringing Lawson in for a visit because, although Lawson isn’t likely to be a hot commodity, the market for outside linebackers is extremely thin.

ILB/OLB Option 2: Jameel McClain

McClain is primarily a two-down run stopper, but he’s not terrible in coverage either. He’s been over-shadowed by Ray Lewis in Baltimore, but has played well enough to garner some interest as a free agent.

An added bonus is that McClain can play inside in the 3-4 and probably slide outside in the four-man front. That should fit perfectly with Allen’s multiple front defense.

CB Option 1: Richard Marshall

Marshall produced nicely in cornerback in 2011, but he didn’t start until late in the year. Marshall is 27 and entering his prime, provided the market for his services doesn’t push his salary out of the Raiders’ range, he should and will be considered a starter with good potential.

Raiders should be heavily interested in the available cornerbacks and don’t be surprised if Marshall is one of the primary targets. His best fit is outside and not covering the slot. If the Raiders decide to continue to use Huff as the slot cornerback Marshall would figure to be a good fit outside.

CB Option 2: Terrell Thomas

It will be difficult for any team to give Thomas a full value contract he deserves because he is coming off a torn ACL. However, Thomas was on of the best when it came to defending the run from the cornerback position. He’s been liability in coverage at times, but that’s largely the product of the New York Giants pass rush as Jason Pierre-Paul had not yet burst upon the scene.

The Raiders would roll the dice on Thomas’ health as he is just 27 and would still solidify their group of cornerbacks.

CB Option 3: Tracy Porter

Porter is looking for his big payday, but if his cost remains reasonable the Raiders could be in the mix. With only sophomore’s DeMarcus Van Dyke and Chimdi Chekwa left at the position the Raiders will be looking to add depth at cornerback via free agency and the draft.

Porter had a down year and that’s a concern considering he was playing for a contract. Dennis Allen is familiar with Porter from his time as secondary coach for the New Orleans Saints.

Expect the Raiders to a least inquire and hope the market remains cool for Porter’s services.

CB Option 4: William Gay

Gay is yet another cornerback entering his prime that the Raiders should take a long look at in free agency. Gay isn’t spectacular at anything, but he’s a solid cornerback that is a more than capable second or third cornerback.

Gay should also remain affordable as teams will recall him surrendering a 30-yard touchdown to Eddie Royal in the playoffs last season.,

Flight Risk: Raiders’ Free Agents Ready to Hit the Open Market

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Mar 092012
 

Free agency starts Monday and the Raiders are still hacking away at troublesome contracts to get under the salary cap. Once the Raiders are comfortably under the salary cap they will turn their attention to signing free agents.

It wouldn’t be uncommon for a team to end up signing the majority of their own free agents, but this is no ordinary year in Oakland. Reggie McKenzie will try to re-shape the roster and the fringe-roster players could all be seeking employment on Monday.

Some Raiders’ free agents will be retained and others will be boarding flights to different cities in 201

 

QB Jason Campbell

Odds he leaves in free agency: 96%

Campbell is a classy player that understands the business side of the game. He didn’t make any noise when he was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski and he stuck around to support the team even though the Raiders had moved on from him last season.

Despite the bonds Campbell forged in Oakland, he’ll be boarding a flight for a new city in 2012. Where will depend on who wins the Peyton Manning sweepstakes and which teams rolls the dice on Matt Flynn.

Teams that need a quarterback include, Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Arizona, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Jacksonville.

Campbell may find it difficult to find a starting job in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he wont select a team where his odds of starting are increased.

Denver would be an interesting location for Campbell. Tebow’s success appears unsustainable and they don’t have much behind him. Unless the Dolphins lose

 

QB Kyle Boller

Odds he leaves in free agency: 100%

Boller will be hard-pressed to find a job as a second or third quarterback and it’s probably close to the end of the line for Boller.

 

RB Michael Bush

Odds he leaves in free agency: 90%

The Franchise Tag was given to Tyvon Branch, leaving Michael Bush to test the waters of free agency.

While the Raiders might want Bush to return, there will be teams calling that are willing to offer Bush much more than the Raiders will be able to offer.

The Bengals find themselves looking for a starting runningback for the first time in many years. Cedric Benson fizzled out as a starter and the Bengals will be looking for a back to pair with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Bengals can find more balance offensively if they sign a legitimate starter and Bush has proven valuable and durable as the backup in Oakland. Potential fit.

 

RB Rock Cartwright

Odds he leaves in free agency: 25%

Cartwright was the Raiders’ special teams captain in 2012 and will come cheaply. Expect the Raiders to keep Cartwright around in 2012, but he wont be a top priority. He’s expressed a desire to stay with the Raiders and the Raiders will eventually return the favor.

 

WR Chaz Schilens

Odds he leaves in free agency: 85%

Vincent Jackson is ready to find a new team and that leaves a hole at receiver in San Diego. The Chargers rarely open up the bank for a free agent, so Schilens potential and affordability make Schilens an interesting target for the Chargers.

Schilens is familiar with San Diego having gone to college at San Diego State and he’s a native of southern California.

The Chargers have seen enough of Schilens to know he has talent, but not so close that they realize that he’s been healthy for one year of his career.

 

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

No one wanted him seven games into the 2011 season before Carson Palmer and Hue Jackson called. He didn’t do much with his time catching 11 passes for 146 yards in nine games.

He’ll file back into the unemployment line and that’s likely where he will remain.

 

C Samson Satele

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Satele will reportedly not be retained by the Raiders. While that’s certainly not a bad move, Satele is cheap and can backup multiple positions on the offensive line. He’ll find a work somewhere.

 

RT Khalif Barnes

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Barnes was not a very good starter at right tackle, but he could be signed to be a backup lineman somewhere in 2012

The Raiders will shift to younger players and/or players that fit the zone-blocking scheme and neither describe Barnes.

 

OL Stephon Heyer

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Heyer was brought in to challenge for a starting job and he never did although one could argue the line played better when he was at left guard and Stefen Wisniewski was at center.

Regardless, Heyer is a free agent and doesn’t fit into the Raiders’ plans to shift to zone-blocking.

 

DE Trevor Scott

Odds he leaves in free agency: 48%

Scott is one player that might benefit from the Raiders new defense and he’ll be inexpensive to retain. It wasn’t long ago when Scott was an up-and-coming pass rusher and that might be enough to intrigue Dennis Allen. Intrigued enough to keep Scott in Oakland?

 

DE Jarvis Moss

Odds he leaves in free agency: 84%

Things didn’t work out for Moss in Denver or Oakland and Moss will be looking for his third team in 2012.

He flashes ability, but he’s far too inconsistent. Gut feeling is Rex Ryan calls and offers Moss a job as a backup with the Jets.

 

LB Ricky Brown

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

He was a player with ties to the organization and Al Davis kept coming back to Brown when he needed him.

Brown will have a tough time finding a team in 2012 and there is a very good chance

 

LB Quentin Groves

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Groves was benched in favor of Aaron Curry mid-season and outside of solid special teams play offered little more than a body for the Raiders defense.

He’ll be in a different uniform in 2012.

 

LB Darryl Blackstock

Odds he leaves in free agency: 95%

He was a special teams player and was familiar with Chuck Bresnahan from his days as a coach for a UFL team. Given Blackstock is affordable and there isn’t much film on the guy, it’s conceivable the Raider will give him the opportunity to earn a roster spot in camp.

 

CB Lito Sheppard

Odds he leaves in free agency: 93%

Veteran cornerbacks that are on the street mid-season aren’t typically the type you want starting down the stretch, but Sheppard is a veteran and he’s smart.

He may be limited more now than he used to be, but he can still be relatively effective as a backup.

 

FS Matt Giordano

Odds he leaves in free agency: 50%

Giordano is familiar with Dennis Allen from his time with the Saints, but it is unknown if Allen has a favorable opinion of Giordano.

Giordano had five interceptions last season playing part-time, but also seemed to shy away from contract and let far too many receivers behind him to feel comfortable with him as anything more than a backup.

SS Jerome Boyd

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Boyd is a fringe roster player and bounced between the practice squad and the active roster. Unless McKenzie and Allen see something in Boyd worth developing they will set their sights on other players.

 

DB Bryan McCann

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Filled in admirably for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore in the return game. He’s a specialist and given his success in that area he could find a home in 2012.

There is an outside chance the Raiders might keep McCann around to limit the wear on the Raiders’ two young receivers.

 

FB Marcel Reece

Odds he leaves in free agency: 0%

As a restricted free agent, if another team wanted to sign Reece they’d have give the Raiders compensation depending on the level of the tender. That’s extremely unlikely and Reece is considered a big part of what the Raiders want to do on offense.

Don’t worry, Reece will be back with the Raiders in 2012.

 

DE Desmond Bryant

Odds he leaves in free agency: 2%

Like Reece, Bryant is a restricted free agent. He’s a great rotational lineman and can play multiple positions on the defensive line.

He’ll undoubtedly be back this season.

A Deeper Look Into Roster Decisions

 Posted by at 8:58 AM  No Responses »
Mar 022012
 

This is the time of year where general managers earn their money. They are paid to make the right decisions for the team, whether it’s the most popular one or not. It is also the time of year when fans like to express their feelings on how the roster should be shaped. While the Raider Nation does know the Raiders very well, the reasoning behind each decision goes way deeper than whether or not the player fits under the salary cap. Here are just a few of the questions that coaches and general managers have to answer before making a decision on any given player.

How does the player fit into the scheme?

The amount of success a player has on the field has a lot to do with how their skill set fits the scheme they are playing in. The Raiders are in the middle of a complete overhaul this off-season. There are changes across the board from new general manager all the way down to the strength and conditioning program of the players. Those changes bring even more uncertainty when your trying to gauge a players worth. The role that each player played last year may or may not be the same role that they will play in 2012 and that has to be taken into account when trying to decide whether to keep them or not. Take a look at Stanford Routt’s situation. Routt has been strictly a man to man bump and run corner his entire career to this point. It’s no secret that while the Raiders will probably run some man coverage, they will run a lot more zone in 2012 making Routt’s skill set not a great fit for the new defense. Factor that into what he was making and it made it pretty easy for Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen to decide to part ways with him regardless of the fact that he is talented.

Is he a three down player or a “specialist”?

Often times when you read scouting reports on defensive college players you here the phrase “is he a three down player?”. Players that are not “three down players” will only play in certain situations that fit their skill set. A pass rushing specialist will often times come in the game on third and long when you don’t have to worry about the run as much and they can focus on getting after the quarterback. On the flip side, a run stopping specialist will often times play on early downs because the likelihood of a run is higher, and then subsequently come off the field on long yardage downs. A player that can play every down for a team is obviously of more worth than a player who is only good in certain situations so that has to factor into the decision of keeping or cutting the player as well. Teams have to be careful about wrapping large amounts of money into a player who can only be on the field at certain times.

What is the longevity of the player’s current contract?

The players current contract and the longevity of that contract will be considered as well. A player that makes 10 million for one year is looked at a lot differently than a player that is making 8 million per year for the next five years. If you commit to keeping a player this year that has 5 years left on his contract, you have to be aware that you will be faced with the same dilemma the next four off seasons. Do you want to invest more money into a player who you don’t think is a long-term solution or cut your losses and start fresh with a player who you feel fits better into your future and that you can sign at more of a market value?

Who will fill the role vacated if you decide to release the player?

Deciding not to keep a player is only half of the battle. Before you release the player you have, you have to think about how you plan to replace them and what that will cost. Most teams go into the off-season with a certain number of holes they have to attempt to fill. Releasing a contributing player only creates another one. Competing with other teams for players on the open market can get expensive, and with limited draft picks you really have to have a good fallback plan in place before deciding to move on from your current player.

How does restructuring a contract position the team for the future?

The first thought that comes to everyone’s mind when a team is over the salary cap is “We need to start restructuring contracts”. While most of the time that does end up being a big part of the solution, if not done the right way it can set a team back even further the following year. One way to decrease a players cap hit for the current league year is to sign that player to a new deal that is “back loaded”. This means that the player will make very little the first year of the deal to decrease his cap hit, but the contract normally includes a lot of guaranteed money and the subsequent years on the contract are usually for well over market value for the given player. This option is essentially just delaying the problem and creating a bigger one the next off-season especially if you do this with multiple players. Teams that do this a lot tend to be over the cap and in the same position year after year.

Another option is to sign the player to a contract that includes a big signing bonus. Signing bonuses are prorated evenly over the length of the contract to spread out the cap number, so the teams can essentially pay a large portion of the salary up front without it having a big impact on their ability to sign other players. To most fans that sounds like a fantastic option. Why don’t we just do that with every player, right? Except for one small problem. Some one has to actually write the checks for these big signing bonuses, and it certainly is not you and me. This is where the business side of things comes into play. Shelling out 10 million dollars at a time while restructuring contracts is easier said than done so financials can cause an issue with this approach. I’m sure a lot of you read the blurbs about Al Davis selling off minority shares of the team in the latter years of his life. Something to keep in mind when thinking about how the financial side of things is taken care of. All the money has to come from somewhere.

There is no doubt that Reggie McKenzie and Dennis Allen have their work cut out for them, and the decisions they make will have a big impact on how they are perceived by the fans as well as the success of the team. Nothing like hitting the ground running with your new job huh fellas?

 

 

Branch to Receive Franchise Tag

 Posted by at 1:59 PM  No Responses »
Mar 012012
 

According to a source with knowledge of the situation, Raiders strong safety Tyvon Branch will receive the franchise tag.

With only a few days to go before the deadline to apply the tag the two sides remain far apart to reach a long-term contract.

It’s not impossible that the Raiders will reach a long-term agreement with Branch at some point in the future, but at least one side feels a deal can’t be reached before the deadline on Monday.

Branch just completed his rookie contract worth about $2.2 million and is looking for pay in-line with starting role. Branch averaged 112 tackles per season since becomming a starter at the beginning of the 2009 season.

Branch has been used as a box safety to help support the run, something required because of the Raiders problems in the front seven.

It is believed Branch will be an excellent fit in Dennis Allen’s defensive scheme and was immediately mentioned as a top priority for the Raiders.

 

 

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