Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

Sep 082011
 

Darrius Heyward-Bey.

You read that right. Darrius Heyward-Bey the much maligned first-round draft pick two seasons ago will the be Raiders breakout player.

For the record, I think Matt Shaughnessy is going to have a monster year, but he was good last year. He had seven sacks. He’s hardly unknown to the Raider Nation even if he isn’t a household name around the NFL yet.

Since my primary audience is the Raider Nation, I think is only appropriate to select Heyward-Bey.

Why Darrius Heyward-Bey? What have I seen that makes me think Heyward-Bey will have a breakout season?

Heyward-Bey enters his third season. The theory for a long time was that receivers breakout in their third season. Two years ago Football Outsiders examined this theory. The results were that receives were equally likely to breakout in their second, third and even fourth year.

As raw as Heyward-Bey was entering the league, it only makes sense that he would take some time to develop.  Given he didn’t breakout in his second year, Heyward-Bey still has two seasons to do so. It’s possible he never breaks out, but I’ll take a rough 1/3 shot that he does this season.

In addition to this being a prime year for Heyward-Bey, the Raiders brought in offensive coordinator Al Saunders. Saunders is known for his ability to develop receivers. It has been said Raiders receivers need to have great chemistry with their quarterback to be successful in a Saunders offense. Lucky for the Raiders the receivers spent a few weeks with Jason Campbell during the lockout.

Why is it whenever a player is asked for a breakout player they say Darrius Heyward-Bey? Aside from all the wise cracks about it being written into their contracts, what are the players seeing?

What the Raiders are likely seeing is Heyward-Bey’s speed and size put to good use in practice and away from the critical eyes of the media. Give Heyward-Bey credit, he works hard. Other players see how much work Heyward-Bey puts in and his raw talent at practice and make a guess.

You either have great hands or you don’t. Heyward-Bey will never be a real natural hands catcher, but he has shown he is able to do it at times. He’s not a perfect receiver, but that does not mean he is unable to be a productive receiver.

The Raiders may also be changing how they use Heyward-Bey. Instead of having him run deep so much he may be incorporated into the short and intermediate passing game. This gives him less time to think and he can rely more on his instincts.

Expect at least a doubling of Heyward-Bey’s production this season, if not more.

For the first time in his career everything might be going for Heyward-Bey. Stability at quarterback, an offensive coordinator known for developing receivers and an offense that is desperately trying to establish their passing identity.

 

 

Sep 072011
 

What can you expect of the Raiders this season? More on that in the season preview later this week. This is about bold predictions. We will revist them at the end of the season and see how we did. I try to keep this as positive as possible so this is going to have a homer-like vibe to it. Just know, this is bold predictions. Hitting on 1/3 of them is probably an excellent hit rate, like baseball.

1. Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

2. Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

3. Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

4. Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

5. Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

6. Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

7. Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

8. Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

9. The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

10. The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

11. The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

12. The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

13. The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

14. The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

15. The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

16. Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

17. Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

18. Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

19. The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

20. Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

 

 

Sep 032011
 

First news of cuts come in and my roster prediction already looks terrible.

The Raiders parted ways with Walter McFadden. I should have gone with my gut and my belief he would be cut for months.

Lito Sheppard looked good last night, but I suppose didn’t do enough to merit a job over the Raiders younger options.

These two cuts bode well for Jeremy Ware and Sterling Moore. We’ll know for sure within the hour.

Update: Jeremy Ware and Stevie Brown have been cut as well. We are past the deadline so news should trickle in until Hue has a call with the media at 4. Looks like Joe Porter may make the roster.

Sep 022011
 

It’s been a good run, even if it ends this year. No one has been better at predicting the 53-man roster for the past few years. My not-so-humble brag will ultimately make this prediction terrible, but I’ve got to make it anyway.

 

Quarterbacks (3+1)

Jason Campbell

Kyle Boller

Trent Edwards

Terrelle Pryor (roster exemption while he is suspended)

 

Running backs (5)

Darren McFadden

Michael Bush

Taiwan Jones

Rock Cartwright

Marcel Reece

 

Receivers (6)

Darrius Heyward Bey

Jacoby Ford

Louis Murphy

Denarius Moore

Chaz Schilens

Derek Hagan

 

Tight Ends (3)

Kevin Boss

Brandon Myers

David Ausberry

 

Offensive Tackles (4)

Jared Veldheer

Stephon Heyer

Khalif Barnes

Joseph Barksdale

 

Offensive Guards (3)

Stefen Wisniewski

Cooper Carlisle

Bruce Campbell

 

Center (1)

Samson Satele

 

Defensive Tackles (4)

Richard Seymour

Tommy Kelly

John Henderson

Desmond Bryant

 

Defensive Ends (4)

Lamarr Houston

Matt Shaughnessy

Trevor Scott

Jarvis Moss

 

Linebackers (6)

Rolando McClain

Kamerion Wimbley

Quentin Groves

Darryl Blackstock

Jeremy Leman

Sam Williams

 

Safties (5)

Michael Huff

Tyvon Branch

Mike Mitchell

Chimdi Chekwa

Stevie Brown

 

Cornerbacks (6)

Stanford Routt

Chris Johnson

Demarcus Van Dyke

Lito Sheppard

Walter McFadden

Jeremy Ware

 

Specialists (3)

Sebastian Janikowski

Shane Lechler

Jon Condo