2011 Bold Predictions Revisited

 Posted by at 6:48 PM  No Responses »
Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

Looking Forward: Raiders 2012 Free Agents

 Posted by at 7:27 PM  16 Responses »
Jan 022012
 

Khalif Barnes – Weakest link on the offensive line with youth behind him. Raiders will look for for other options. It’s not as if there aren’t a dozen Khalif’s on the street each year.

Darryl Blackstock – Was a Chuck Bresnahan guy, but found a home on special teams. Would have to make the team as a reserve LB and special teams guy next training camp. Wouldn’t be surprised to see him back as a camp body or gone entirely.

Kyle Boller – Hue didn’t have enough confidence to turn to Boller. Expect the Raiders to look elsewhere for a backup to Carson Palmer.

Jerome Boyd – Was nothing more than a reserve and special teams player. Some good moments and some very bad ones. Camp body again and fate will depend on the defensive coordinator.

Tyvon Branch – About the only consistent producer in the secondary. Raiders will want to bring him back.

Desmond Bryant – He’s been great in limited action and can play inside and out. Key reserve.

Michael Bush – He’ll find a home as a starter if the Raiders don’t franchise tag him.

Jason Campbell – Good as gone. He’ll find a place to start with yet another new coach and coordinator.

Cooper Carlisle – Has proven surprisingly versatile in scheme. Good veteran. Raiders could go for new right side or keep Carlisle in the mix.

Rock Cartwright – Commitment to Excellence Award winner in consecutive years and the Raiders special teams captain. He’ll be back.

Matt Giordano – Had good moments, but unless the Raiders move Michael Huff to corner full time there is a good chance the Raiders address the lack of depth at cornerback and move Huff back to free safety full time.

Quentin Groves – Good as gone. Aaron Curry trade was made strictly to take him out of the starting lineup.

T.J. Houshmandzadeh – Came in to be a familiar face for Palmer, hardly played down the stretch.

Bryan McCann – With a healthy Ford, Moore and Jones hard to imagine he is back, but showed enough to catch on elsewhere.

Jarvis Moss – May have played his last down in Oakland as Desmond Bryant gobbled up his snaps after he got injured and has only occasionally flashed pass rush skills. Liability against the run.

Marcel Reece – Better believe the Raiders will bring him back.

Samson Satele – Did he play well enough to keep Stefen Wisniewksi at left guard? Maybe.

Chaz Schilens – It comes down to this: Raiders have 4 younger receivers under contract.

Trevor Scott – Hardly saw the field this season. Once a potential star…now just a ball of gas.

Lito Sheppard – Picked up off the street because the Raiders had injuries. Will be there again next year.

Preview Week 17: Must Win

 Posted by at 8:53 AM  No Responses »
Jan 012012
 

When the Raiders exit the field Sunday, there are three possible scenarios for the Raiders: Division Champs, Wildcard winners, or out of the playoffs.

The Raiders could be division champions with a win and the Chiefs can beat the Broncos, the Raiders could be wild card winner with a win, Bengals loss and either a Jets win or Titans loss. The last scenario is one no Raider fan wants to think about, the Raiders lose or the Broncos and Bengals both win.

It’s been a very up and down season and the Raiders must win and get a little help to get into the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Perhaps it is fitting that the Raiders would let the possibility of a playoff berth come down to the final game. The Raiders have seemingly given opponent after opponent the opportunity to win the game, if only a few took advantage of the opportunity. The primary issue has been a porous defense, but the Raiders defense played one of their best games of the season in San Diego a few short weeks ago and San Diego is the opponent in week 17.

What does it all mean for Sunday? Not much. It’s a one game season for the Raiders  and  we’ll find out how deep the Raiders can dig to get a win and if the defense can put together a complete game. If they can it may boost the Raiders should they make the playoffs.

When the Raiders have the ball:

The last time the Raiders faced the Chargers Michael Bush had a day to remember with 157 rushing yards, 85 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. In the Raiders week 10 win Denarius Moore came up big with 123 yards and two touchdowns. Ford added a 41-yard catch and Darrius Heyward-Bey, the team’s leading receiver, didn’t catch a single pass.

Ford was injured in the game against San Diego and has missed the last six weeks with a foot injury. Ford is ready to go and Carson Palmer has his top three receiving options healthy for the first time since the last game in San Diego six week ago. Palmer almost tossed 300 in San Diego without Ford and with Heyward-Bey as a no-show and should be even better with more options.

Bush’s effectiveness can open up the passing game for the Raiders by keeping the pass rush from coming hard after Carson Palmer. Palmer is a different quarterback when pressured and it is vital to keep the pass rush from getting to Palmer if he is to make good decisions with the football.

The Raiders will attempt to pound the football once again and hope that it opens up the deep passing game. If the Raiders can’t get the run going early expect them to turn to the short passing game with Heyward-Bey and screens and reverses to Moore or Ford.

Hue Jackson needs this win and he will empty the playbook. Expect the Raiders to showcase their speed and continue to be aggressive even when the situation calls for conservatism.

As with any game, it all starts in the trenches. The Raiders offensive line opens holes for Bush or gives Palmer time to throw. Failure on these objectives will prove fatal for the Raiders playoff chances.

Jacoby Ford vs. Dante Hughes

The Raiders get on of the Ferrari’s back and will immediately try to exploit the Chargers sub-standard group of cornerbacks. If the Raiders put Ford in the slot he’ll likely draw Chargers third corner Dante Hughes. Hughes has just three passes defended on the year and this should be a matchup the Raiders try to exploit. If Ford goes outside, expect Hughes to draw Moore instead.

Denarius Moore vs. Quentin Jammer

In their first match-up of the season Moore get the best of the veteran corner Jammer. Raiders will continue to pick on Jammer as along as Moore is getting deep releases. If the Chargers give Jammer help over the top with the strong safety Steve Gregory the Raiders will run Kevin Boss down the seam. With the Raiders offensive weapons expanding the Chargers will have to pick a poison and Moore killed them in week 10.

Darrius Heyward-Bey vs Antoine Cason

It’s a bit abnormal for three of these match-ups to be receivers versus cornerbacks, but with a full air arsenal at his disposal expect Hue Jackson to make good use of his options. With Ford’s return and Moore’s big game against the Chargers it would be easy to forget about the Raiders most productive receiver and consistent receiver this season. Heyward-Bey is a move the chains receiver that has enough speed to turn mistakes into scores. Cason is the Chargers best cornerback and has really played well the second half of this season. Over the top help is also good with Eric Weddle patrolling. If the Raiders want to get Heyward-Bey involved they may put him in the slot and have Ford run off the coverage to the outside.

Jared Veldheer vs Antwan Barnes

In the first meeting between these two teams Antwan Barnes was the only player applying consistent pressure of Palmer on only 15 pass rushing snaps. It’s up to Veldheer to keep Barnes away from the Palmer. The Chargers have only recently discovered Barnes talent as a pass rush specialist and he’ll now rush the passer 20-25 times a game.

Michael Bush vs. Shaun Phillips

There is occasionally a linebacker that does it all. That’s Shaun Phillips. He can fill the run, rush the passer and, when needed, drop back into coverage with almost equal effectiveness. Although he’s not fantastic at anything he is good at everything. The Raiders might want to think twice before running screens to his side and getting a seal block on Phillips is a must if the Raiders intend to run in his direction. If Bush can slip past Phillips in the passing game that might be the best way to exploit Phillips. Either way, if Bush has a good day on the ground or through the air, he’ll need to go through Phillips at least half the time.

Samson Satele vs. Antonio Garay

It’s a story that’s been told over and over again over the past few seasons. Samson Satele can struggle a bit with nose tackles, but in normal Satele form, he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed and has turned in solid performances over the last five weeks. It’s Garay who can eat up blockers and apply the most effective type of pressure, that is pressure right up the middle. Garay exploited Stefen Wisniewski in week 10 when pass rushing, but it was Wisniewski pushing Garay around in the running game. For the Raiders run game and pass game to be effective it starts in the middle with Satele. The more Satele can handle Garay on his own the more that frees up the guards get second-level blocks on the Chargers linebackers.

When the Chargers have the ball:

The Raiders blanketed Vincent Jackson in the first meeting and limited him. It was Vincent Brown who became the go-to receiver for Phillip Rivers. Ryan Mathews is questionable, and the Chargers haven’t fielded a good running game in many weeks. No, the Chargers will again attempt to sling the ball around. That’s good news for the Raiders pass rushing defensive line. If the Raiders can cover the Chargers receivers long enough to pressure Rivers they will win the game. If the pass rush doesn’t get to Rivers quick enough that could give the Chargers big receivers opportunities.

Expect the Raiders to pressure the Chargers receivers at the line of scrimmage and attempt to tie up the receivers long enough to get pressure on Rivers. None of the Chargers receivers have elite speed so there is little risk of the receivers running past the coverage. Should the pass rush fail to get to Rivers there will be a lot of pressure on the Raiders safeties to provide help over the top.

Stanford Routt vs. Vincent Jackson

Routt 1 vs Jackson 0. The re-match does not always go the same way. Routt limited Jackson for most of the game in week 10. Routt has been good in coverage, he’s playing just a bit too physical and has been on the bad end of a few pass interference and defensive holding calls. The Chargers may to exploit Routt’s aggressiveness, so it is vital Routt whips his head around to find the ball. He might have opportunities to get interceptions if he can read and react to the ball in flight. He’s been getting called for hand checks lately as a direct result of his inability to find the ball in the air. Jackson was limited in practice all week until Friday. He’s probable, but a late scratch wouldn’t be surprising with Jackson headed for free agency and facing a tough match-up.

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Jared Gaither

Wimbley terrorized the Chargers in week 10 with 4 sacks, 3 hits and 7 more pressures on Rivers. Wimbley is coming off one of his worst games of the season and he may draw a more difficult match-up this time around. Gaither was picked up off the scrap heap and is starting at left tackle for the Chargers. Gaither was not signed by the Raiders in training camp when all signs pointed to it. He caught on with KC, but was hardly playing. The Chargers in need of help on the offensive line picked him up and he’s started and played remarkably well the past four weeks. Wimbley has the talent to beat a tackle like Gaither, but it’s one of the most interesting match-ups of the day.

Richard Seymour vs. Louis Vasquez

He’s big mean and nasty and as long as he isn’t committing stupid penalties he’s one of the top defensive tackle in the game. He’s the defacto leader of the Raiders defense and the defense goes as Seymour goes. So Seymour must go against Vasquez. Vasquez was having a solid season, but he’s fallen off lately. Enter Seymour. If Seymour draws a double team the Raiders to his left and right, being Lamarr Houston and Tommy Kelly need to make the most of their one-on-ones. Seymour doesn’t need 3 sacks to be successful, but the defensive line goes as Seymour goes. It’s a big game.

Michael Huff vs. The Field

Huff is used in many ways and he’s coming back from injury. The Raiders can surely use him against all the Chargers receiving weapons. It will be Huff’s job to fill in as a slot corner and help over the top. He’ll have considerable pressure on him in this game and let’s hope he makes the best of it.

If the Raiders want to win and make the playoffs it is these three highly paid defensive players that need to shine. Routt, Wimbley, Seymour and Huff were handed sizable contracts in the offseason and this is where contracts and careers are made. Crunch time for these defensive players.

Prediction:

Chargers playing spoiler and Raiders with everything to lose. The Raiders are at home and the coliseum will be rocking like it hasn’t since 2002. Raiders win this one, somehow, someway, but will it be enough?

 

Raiders Resolutions

 Posted by at 10:49 PM  1 Response »
Dec 292011
 

While the year is coming to a close, the Raiders’ season is very much still alive. With playoff hopes looming, there are few things the Raiders need to do both this current season and in the season to come. This means starting the new year off with a bang against the Division rival San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have become a formidable opponent in recent weeks, especially amidst the Raiders’ inconsistent play. So, these are some of the resolutions the Raiders need to make in the upcoming year:

No More Penalties
While they’ve been better about minimizing penalties recently, certainly better than they were at the beginning of the season, the Raiders still need some work on avoiding penalties altogether. Many people complain that their team is unfairly penalized, but the fact of the matter is that the
Raiders are like a team of Ndamukong Suh’s, meaning that the refs already have their eye on the guys. Just this season, the team has given up over 1,200 yards in penalties, which in inexcusable and needs to change in the near future (meaning now).

Be Positively Surprising
Hue Jackson has been surprising in terms of his play calling, but this has not always been a good thing. At times, his play calling has been shockingly awful and questionable. No one knows if he’ll remain the head coach next season, but until then, he’s got some games to play. In the new year, starting the first, Jackson needs to call those surprise plays that got him early wins, and not call running plays on 2nd and 25.

Break the Field Goal Record
Janikowski is right there in the record books with Jason Elam and Tom Dempsey for the longest field goal at 63 yards. The New Years Resolution for him is to break that record. He’s easily good enough, and has barely missed when trying to break it. C’mon Jano, you got this!

Stay Healthy
Along with penalties, the health of the Raiders has plagued them this year. In the coming year, they need to get McFadden healthy and keep him that way. Granted, there was a lockout this season so players have been getting hurt left and right, but there’s no excuse for the upcoming season. The training staff must do whatever it takes to keep these men healthy. The coaches are not exempt from this either. When your form is perfect, you run less risk of getting injured, but when you execute fundamentals sloppily, then trouble sets in.

Win The Super Bowl
An obvious, but crucial New Years resolution is to win the most important game of the year: the Super Bowl. They haven’t won since 1983 and haven’t been since 2002. This leaves tons of room for improvement in the winning department, because when it comes down to it, no other game matters unless you’re the Champion. They have to make a lot of adjustments and get healthy, but the Raiders have a shot at it both this season and next. Remember it is a “Commitment to Excellence.”

Week 16 Preview: Silver Bells

 Posted by at 10:56 AM  No Responses »
Dec 242011
 

The Raiders simply must win their next two games to have a chance at the playoffs. The Chiefs are playing for the playoffs themselves and will need to win the last two games. This is a late December trip to Arrowhead with playoff implications despite struggles along the way for both teams.

Reeling after an explicable defensive meltdown last week at home versus the Detroit Lions, the Raiders will attempt to pick their season off the scrap heap Sunday in Kansas City. Temperatures will be win the mid 40s and mild, not what one would expect for a late season trip to Arrowhead stadium. The mild temperatures mean the Raiders will have dodged their cold-weather games this season. It didn’t make any difference in their blowout loss to the Packers two weeks ago and the Raiders are hoping to avoid any repeats.

The last time the Raiders faced the Chiefs, Todd Haley was the Head Coach and Matt Cassel was the Quarterback for the Chiefs. Fast forward 11 weeks and Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton are leading the Chiefs final leg of the season with a slim opportunity to make the playoffs by winning their final two games.

Crennel, a coach with a deep history with Bill Parcells, would be a candidate for several open defensive coordinator positions if he doesn’t retain the top job in Kansas City. It is believed Crennel’s performance over the final two weeks will make a difference and he’ll have his team ready to go.

The Raiders last faced Orton in week one sacking him five times and limiting him to 52.2% completion percentage despite allowing him to pass for over 300 yards. Orton has only been sacked four times since week one in 141 attempts.

Rewind to week 7

Darren McFadden goes down with what seemed like a minor foot injury and is still recovering. Lack of his presence in the Raiders offense is significant reason why the offense has sputtered down the stretch. Kyle Boller is back on the bench and Carson Palmer has had more than a few days to prepare for the Chiefs. The Chiefs blew out the Raiders in Oakland.

When the Raiders have the ball:

Not to short change the Chiefs defense, but it is really a three-man wrecking crew. Tamba Hali, Derrick Johnson and Brandon Flowers are all dangerous defenders at each level of the defense. In the passing game, the Raiders will avoid Brandon Flowers as much as possible and hope to keep Hali blocked long enough for Carson Palmer to get the ball to his other receivers. Johnson is excellent against the run and the Raiders offensive line will need to get to him in the running game to make sure he isn’t blowing up Michael Bush’s chance at big runs.

Jared Veldheer vs. Tamba Hali

Veldheer struggled with Hali in week 7. Hali was putting pressure on or hitting the Raiders quarterback on all of the Raiders six interceptions that day. Veldheer knows Hali and he will need to limit him and the bull rush move Hali had success with. The Raiders could try to roll a back to his side at risk of pressure coming up the middle. It’s a chess game the Raiders win if Veldheer can limit Hali.

Michael Bush and Offensive Line vs. Derrick Johnson

The offensive line can really help Bush versus the Chiefs linebacker. If the offensive line can seal off Johnson and Bush can get into the secondary he’ll have a big day. Bush hasn’t had a solid day running the ball since week 10 in San Diego. The good news is the Raiders had success running the ball against Kansas City in Oakland, but the interceptions put them in such a hole that the running game couldn’t be a focus. Johnson is a good run defending linebacker and the Raiders success on the ground depends on Bush slipping past Johnson and the Raiders getting a blocker on him.

Carson Palmer vs. Chiefs Secondary

Brandon Flowers is most dangerous, but the Chiefs secondary gobbled up all kinds of errant passes the last time these two teams played. Palmer, with a much better handle on the offense, needs to shred the Chiefs secondary. The Raiders will need to protect Palmer and if they can do that Palmer has the weapons to get payback. Expect the Raiders to setup the deep pass with the run and see if they can’t make a few big plays in the passing game. Expect Darrius Heyward-Bey to continue to be the possession receiver and the Raiders to run Denarius Moore deep.

Darrius Heyward-Bey vs. Brandon Carr

The Raiders best matchup is with Brandon Carr on the outside. The Raiders want to exploit the Chiefs safeties and getting them to roll help to one side will equal opportunities in the passing game to the other. If Carr plays soft Palmer will take the short gains all day long, but if Carr starts playing close to the line the Raiders will try and get one deep behind the corner and deep outs and crosses in front of the safties. DHB has been the Raiders most consistent, healthy, and productive receiver. Expect that to continue.

When the Chiefs have the ball:

It starts with stopping the run and allowing the Raiders defensive line to get after Kyle Orton. Breaston and Bowe are very capable receivers and if given time Orton will find them open down the field against a week Raiders secondary. The Chiefs are using a running back by committee approach that is working. Jackie Battle, Thomas Jones, and Dexter McCluster are all getting snaps and present different challenges.

Rolando McClain vs. Chiefs Three-Headed Running Back

McCluster is a scat back type with a bunch of speed. McClain and the Raiders defense have to seal the edge and force McCluster to take his runs inside. Jones is a much more traditional back that the Raiders have had good success stopping in the past. He’s smart, but lacks the burst he once had. McClain needs only to fill the right running lanes to keep Jones from hurting the Raiders. Battle is the true weapon here. Battle is a little bit like Michael Bush, he’s big and fairly nimble for his size. He’s bruising because of his size and McClain will not be able to arm tackle Battle and have success. There is a lot of pressure on McClain as he must account for several different looks on offense.

Stanford Routt vs Dwayne Bowe

Routt need to put together one of his good games that is also penalty free. He’s capable and has a challenge with Bowe. Good news here is Bowe is good, but he is no Calvin Johnson.

Raiders DL vs. Chiefs OL

Things typically start in the trenches and that’s where the Raiders defense can do damage. The Chiefs are particular suspect on the right side of the line. Expect the Raiders to attack Barry Richardson and Jon Asamoah. Richard Seymour and Lamarr Houston should have a nice day and if Tommy Kelly and Kamerion Wimbley can get into the mix the Raiders should be able to put pressure on Orton and force him into mistakes.

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