Week 12 Defensive Preview: Stop Forte

 Posted by at 1:51 AM  No Responses »
Nov 272011
 

The Bears come into Oakland minus their starting quarterback Jay Cutler. They will turn from Cutler to Caleb Hanie. It changes the game considerably from what the Raiders would have been facing with Jay Cutler under center. The Bears will not be able to turn to Cutler when the defense stacks the box against Matt Forte and the pressure will be on Hanie to make the defense pay for it.

Running

Matt Forte has more yards from scrimmage and more 20+ and 40+ yards runs than any running back in football. Forte is averaging 155.1 yards per game. Put this in perspective, Matt Forte generates over 47% of the Bears offensive yards. How does the worst run defense in football stop the best running back in football? The Raiders are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Forte is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It doesn’t take a mathematician to do this math Forte could run all over the Raiders if they don’t have a plan to stop him.

Forte is extremely elusive and defenders have missed tackles on him 38 times. Only Michael Turner has more, but Forte has also forced 11 missed tackles in the passing game. Raiders must maintain gap discipline and maintain their fundamentals when trying to bring down Forte.

The Raiders rush defense has been inconsistent and there is debate about just how much the run defense has improved from prior years. Raiders have allowed 38, 223, 100, 183, 70, 65, 139, 299, 75, 124 in games this season. If the Raiders hold the opposing team to less than 125 yards they are 6-0, but are 0-4 when allowing more than 125 yards on the ground.

Without consistency it is difficult to project how the Raiders will fare against a back of Forte’s caliber, but they have demonstrated the ability to stop the run at times this season. The defense is struggling for consistency and holding opponents under 125 in three consecutive weeks would be a step in the right direction. Stopping the run is a combination between attitude, gap discipline and tackling. The Raiders can’t afford to skirt by with only one of the three elements. Pressure is on the linebackers in this game. If Forte runs wild it will be a long afternoon.

Playing with a lead would limit Forte’s role in the game and the Raiders offense can really help out the defense by scoring early.

Passing

Again, the Raiders must worry about Matt Forte. He has 46 receptions for 465 yards coming through the passing game. Forte can be stopped in the passing game by ensuring coverage in the middle of the field. Only 9 of 46 Forte receptions have been to the outside for a total of just 96 yards. He’ll be Caleb Hanie’s security blanket and the Raiders need to know where he is at all times.

Johnnie Knox presents a different challenge. He’s a burner and deep threat for the Bears and averaging nearly 20 yards per reception. Play him physical at the line and make sure he doesn’t get behind you. The Raiders are never speed deficient and may opt to single cover and dare Hanie to throw deep.

Devin Hester is turning into a solid receiver and the Bears may try to get the ball into his hands. The Raiders defense needs to converge on Hester and limit his running lanes for a big play. Earl Bennett and Roy Williams are more station-to-station receivers and Hanie may look to them on third downs.

Raiders should dare Hanie to throw by stacking the box and using inside leverage to force Hanie to make more difficult throws.

Special Teams

The oft ignored third phase of the game takes center stage this Sunday as the Raiders get set to host Devin Hester and the Bears. Hester is one of he best return men in the league. If Shane Lechler and the Raiders elect to kick it in Hester’s direction the coverage teams will need to be ready. All signs indicate the return team is getting prepared for the worst, but don’t expect Lechler to take the risk this Sunday unless necessary.

By The Numbers

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Week 12 Offensive Preview: Avoid Turnovers

 Posted by at 4:16 PM  No Responses »
Nov 252011
 

With Jay Cutler going down to injury the Chicago Bears will start Caleb Hanie on Sunday. Hanie has played well in short spurts, but will make his first career start on the road. I’m sure the record for quarterbacks in their first career starts on the road isn’t good. The focus shifts on what the Raiders can accomplish on offense versus an opportunistic Bears defense.

Rushing

Fortunately for the Raiders, the Bears weakness has been against the running game. The Bears rush defense has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but only 6 rushing touchdowns. Raiders will want to run the ball in the middle of the field and attempt to pass in the redzone for opportunities to score. Expect Michael Bush to have a big day on the ground, but don’t expect too many touchdowns as the Bears clamp down against the run in the redzone. The Raiders offensive lineman must get to the second level in the running game and put clean blocks on Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher to spring Michael Bush into the secondary.

The Bears linebackers struggle with speed backs as evidenced by Jahvid Best’s 163-yard rushing performance in week five.  If Taiwan Jones is healthy enough to play he should get more carries to spell Bush and could finally break off a long run, but the Bears will be looking to force turnovers and Jones needs to focus on ball security or the Raiders will again give Bush 30 carries. Marcel Reece received more carries than normal last week, expect him to be more active in the passing game this week leaving the rushing duties to Bush and Jones. The Bears corners can tackle and the Raiders receivers will need to block and keep them from getting involved in run support.

Passing

The Bears primary weapon against the pass in defensive end Julius Peppers. The Raiders counter with Jared Veldheer to keep Peppers away from Carson Palmer. The Bears corners are physical and play short zones close to the line of scrimmage leaving the safeties to help deep. Carson Palmer will need to thread passes between the zones and be mindful of linebackers bailing into coverage. If Darrius Heyward-Bey is able to play, this game suites his abilities. Intermediate outs and slants can decimate the Bears defense if the backs can keep the linebackers sucked close to the line of scrimmage. The backs need to read Briggs and Urlacher bailing into zone and become check-down options for Palmer.

The struggle will be in the redzone as gaps in the zone are more condensed. The Raiders should attack the center of the field with a tight end and the perimeter of the field with Marcel Reece and force the Bears defense to cover the maximum amount of space.

Overall

The Bears are a good example of a bend, don’t break defense. The Bears will allow yardage, but force turnovers or the opponents to settle for field goals. It is very important for the Raiders to take care of the football this week. The Bears zone defense is good at creating confusion in the passing game and the Bears defense loves force fumbles when the ball-carrier gets careless. The Raiders run game should carry them once again, but don’t count out the passing game in the redzone.

By The Numbers

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Week 11 Defensive Preview: Focus is on the Linebackers

 Posted by at 4:20 PM  2 Responses »
Nov 182011
 

The 2011 Minnesota Viking Offense is very similar to the offense of the 2009 Oakland Raiders. Both of these offenses featured young developing quarterbacks and potentially game braking running backs. The Raiders won five games during the 2009 season. With the season more than halfway over Minnesota is 2-7, so finishing with a five-win season is a realistic goal for them. As a result, both of these offenses relayed on a strong running game to alleviate their ineptness in the passing game.

For the Vikings to be successful they have to get Adrian Peterson going. Peterson has earned the right to be regarded as the best running back in the NFL. The Raiders defense has contain him and remain disciplined. To be successful, the Vikings must take advantage when the Raiders defense plays undisciplined or gets too aggressive. Look for Christian Ponder to try to expose the Raiders’ linebackers in pass coverage and take try to connect with Percy Harvin when he is lined up against Demarcas Van Dyke or Lito Shepperd. The pressure is on the Raiders front seven to play with enough aggression to keep Peterson in check and simultaneously maintain gap discipline. The result of the game will hinge on the leadership and play of Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain.

Match-ups

Adrian Peterson vs. Rolando McClain

The Raiders have an inconsistent rush defense, that performs well in wins and abysmal in losses. As the quarterback of the defense, it is easy to criticize McClain, but he does deserve some praise. With Minnesota having an inept passing game, the pressure will be on McClain to lead the troops and to keep Peterson from taking over the game.

Aaron Curry vs. Christian Ponder

The Raiders play a lot of nickel, so Curry is on the field in less than ideal situations. Even though Curry is getting better in passing situations, he still remains a liability in coverage. If Ponder is to make Minnesota’s passing game respectable, a great place to start would be throwing to the target closest to Curry.

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Charlie Johnson

Wimbley has been getting after the opposing quarterback all season and finally cashed in with four sacks last week. Johnson and the Vikings offensive line have given up 25 sacks, contrast that with the Raiders giving up 11 sacks. It doesn’t help having a developing rookie as quarterback. If the Vikings are to convert third downs and sustain drives they will need good protection and that starts with containing Wimbley.

X-Factor

Richard Seymour

The Raiders defense could easily dominate the game. If they do, it is because they consistently stuffed the run and put Ponder in long down and distance situations. If the Raiders defense dominates the line of scrimmage it is because their defensive line, led by , is getting consistent penetration. Barring a systemic defense collapse the Raiders should win this game. If a collapse occurs, it is because their defensive captain, Seymour, played undisciplined and received multiple penalties.

Prediction

Raiders 20, Vikings 13

The Raiders defense will not fall apart, but the game will stay close. Hue Jackson will use the pass to set up the run as Palmer picks apart Minnesota’s injured and helpless secondary.

Week 11 Offensive Preview: All About The Fatties

 Posted by at 3:00 PM  1 Response »
Nov 182011
 

The Raiders success on offense this Sunday in Minnesota relies on the massive shoulders of the offensive line.  The big boys up front dominated the Chargers defensive line last Thursday night, providing big holes for Michael Bush and a solid pocket for Carson Palmer.  But it’s a horse of a different color waiting for them in Minnesota: a big purple horse wearing number 69.

 

Match-ups To Watch

LT Jared Veldheer vs.  DE Jared Allen

Jared Allen leads the Vikings front seven.  He is a tenacious, relentless pass rusher, and leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks.  His motor never stops, he has a wide range of pass rush moves and has embarrassed even the league’s best tackles.  He can electrify the loud raucous crowd in Minnesota with one play, and it’ll be up to 6’8” left tackle Jared Veldheer to slow him down.  Don’t expect him to shoulder the burden alone, Hue Jackson will have tight ends Kevin Boss or Brandon Myers stay in and pass block on some plays, and he may also chip Allen with a back.  The other way to slow Allen down is to attack him directly in the run game.

RB Michael Bush vs. Vikings’ Front Seven

The Raiders will go with Michael Bush again this week, and he should be running behind that left side right at Jared Allen.  Defensive tackle Kyle Williams is a load up front, so expect him to draw a lot of double teams from Cooper Carlisle and Samson Satele. The Vikings are excellent against the run, allowing only 93 yards a game, so it’ll be strength versus strength on Sunday.  However, this is the first time this year Vikings unit has faced a rushing team in the top seven.

QB Carson Palmer vs. Vikings’ Secondary

Carson Palmer torched the Chargers secondary with the deep ball.  The Vikings are 30th in the NFL against the pass, and will be without veteran CB Antoine Winfield.  Minnesota used a lot of 2-deep zone against GB on Monday Night, and expect to see some of that early to try to neutralize the Raiders speed.  Palmer needs to be patient, go through his reads and has to be okay with hitting some of the underneath routes.  If he gets enough time, he should be able to pick apart this Vikings defense, even without Jacoby Ford and Darren McFadden.

 

X-FACTOR

Darrius Heyward-Bey

With Jacoby Ford out Sunday Heyward-Bey will need to step up.  He has only one catch since Carson Palmer became the starting quarterback.  Heyward-Bey will be matched up against Vikings corner Cedric Griffin, a favorable match-up even with the poor production the last two games.  Look for a big bounce back game from Heyward-Bey on Sunday.

 

PREDICTION

Raiders 30, Vikings 20

I think the Raiders defense slows down Adrian Peterson and the offensive line keeps Carson Palmer’s jersey clean enough to attack that Vikings secondary.


The Raiders’ Open Road

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Nov 182011
 

This Sunday the Raiders travel to Minnesota and face the Vikings. This game will feature two of the top five rushing teams in the league. While the Vikings run All Day (Adrian Peterson), their passing game is anemic. While defending the run is the Vikings’ strength, stopping the pass is their weakness. The Raiders’ offense leads the NFL with 56 plays over 20 yards and 11 plays over 40 yards, but the Raiders’ defense have given up more 20+ yard runs than any team.

Regardless of the numbers, the Raiders will take advantage of Vikings rookie quarterback Christian Ponder. Even though Minnesota has a stout defensive line, their offense remains unbalanced and largely ineffective. This will allow the Raiders to wear down the Vikings’ defensive line and make big plays. For good reason, the Raiders are favored to win this game, and barring another systemic defensive catastrophe, they will.

Taking a look at the other AFC West teams, we see Denver upsetting the Jets, San Diego traveling to Chicago, and Kansas City going to New England. Even though Denver won, San Diego and Kansas City are underdogs by at least three points. This weekend, the Raiders are expected to win, and their remaining divisional foes are expected to lose. If all goes as expected, at the conclusion of this week’s games the Raiders will have a one-game lead over Denver and a two-game lead over the other divisional teams. After this weekend, the Raiders will have six games left, the last two of which are divisional games.

With a victory this Sunday, the Raiders will gain momentum to make a serious run during the home stretch of the season. With games against Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit looming, the Raiders have a chance to stake their claim in being an elite NFL team.

This weekend, the Raiders will take an important step in being a premier football team. They will become a team who controls their destiny and will take a serious step toward making the playoffs for the first time since 2002. So, Raider Nation: the Raiders are in the driver’s seat and the road is open. Cheers!

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