A Defensive Scheme Mystery

 Posted by at 11:03 PM  1 Response »
Jan 232012
 

There is always going to be a good debate between fans on how the Raiders should scheme on defense. It really doesn’t matter what side you are on, because there are good arguments for both sides. There has been speculation on what Reggie McKenzie prefers as his defense and he was asked in his introductory press conference if he preferred the 3-4 to the 4-3 defense and he indicated that he did not have a preference, although he later said “3-4 is what I know.” McKenzie has made it clear many times to the public that he intends to let the head coach hire his own staff and that the coaching staff has the freedom to run what ever scheme they feel gives the team the best chance to win.

We know that McKenzie comes over from Green Bay where they ran a 3-4 defense and won a Super Bowl while running the 3-4 defense. However, the Packers didn’t always run that style of defense. In fact, they just recently made the transition to the 3-4 defense in 2009.

What this means:

1) McKenzie has spent plenty of time around a 4-3 defense. Which is what the Raiders currently run.

2) McKenzie knows what it takes to make the conversion to a 3-4 from a 4-3.

3) McKenzie has seen what a successful 3-4 defense looks like and was part of building it.

Defensive scheme aside, McKenzie’s first order of business is finding a new head coach. Of the potential candidates to this point, four of them are defensive coaches (Winston Moss, Todd Bowles, Dennis Allen and Dom Capers). Three of the four candidates would be coming from a base 3-4 defense.

Winston Moss was hired to be the linebackers coach in Green Bay in 2006. They were still running a base 4-3 at the time. He was promoted to assistant head coach in 2007 and was the only defensive coach not fired after a horrible season in 2008. In 2009 they made the switch to the 3-4 and Moss became an inside linebackers coach. Two years later they had one of the most feared defenses in the league on their way to winning a super bowl. Since switching to the 3-4, the Packers hold a combined +58 turnover ratio in three seasons. Moss could still prefer the 4-3 to the 3-4 or he could be a convert to the 3-4. No one really knows.

Todd Bowles has been a secondary coach his entire career to this point, most recently with the Miami Dolphins, where he was also an assistant head coach. Before coming to Miami Bowles was a secondary coach for Dallas which also ran the 3-4. When Bowles was hired by Miami they were still running the 4-3, but soon after Bowles got there they also made the conversion to a 3-4 under defensive coordinator Mike Nolan. Bowles, like Moss, has 3-4 experience and has seen a team through the conversion process from a 4-3 to a 3-4 base defense.

Dennis Allen began his NFL coaching career with Atlanta in 2002 as a defensive quality control assistant. Hired by the Saints in 2006 as an assistant defensive line coach and later coached the secondary for the Saints in their 3-4 defense. Last year he was hired as the defensive coordinator of the Broncos and ended the 3-4 experiment and switched back to a 4-3.

Dom Capers has been around the league for a while and held a variety of different positions from position coach to head coach. He was hired as defensive coordinator by the Packers in 2009 to help transition their defense from a 4-3 to a 3-4. As noted above the Packers have since won a super bowl and have a +58 turnover ratio during Capers time as defensive coordinator.

McKenzie is still interviewing to make sure he finds the right guy, but it seems pretty obvious that if a defensive coach gets the job the Raiders could very well be moving to the 3-4 in the next few seasons. If McKenzie hires an offensive coach, it will be up to that coach which defensive scheme will be installed.

Regardless of how it plays out it will be an interesting offseason for the Raiders.

2011 Bold Predictions Revisited

 Posted by at 6:48 PM  No Responses »
Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

Week 15 Preview: Effort & Efficiency

 Posted by at 12:55 PM  No Responses »
Dec 182011
 

Two weeks ago headed into the game against Miami the Raiders were leading the AFC West and coming off three straight victories. Two weeks later the season is on the line. Thanks to Timothy Tebow in Denver and two horrible losses in a row, the Raiders are in must-win mode. Unfortunately for the Raiders the opponent this week needs a win just as badly. The Lions look and play like a playoff team. The Raiders haven’t played like a playoff team in many weeks. What do the Raiders need to do to win? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

[table “9” not found /]

When the Raiders have the ball:

The Lions are nearly as suspect against the run as the Raiders surrendering 5.1 yards per carry this season to the Raiders 5.2 and 5 yards less per game than the Raiders atrocious run defense. The Raiders will attempt to run on the Lions and keep Carson Palmer from hurting the Raiders with costly turnovers. The Lions secondary have proven themselves to be ball hawks and they will force Carson Palmer into a turnover if the Raiders can’t keep the Lions honest by running the ball.

Raiders OL vs. Lions DL

The Lions defensive line is much like the Raiders defensive line. It looks great on paper, but the production hasn’t matched the reputation. Khalif Barnes versus the Lions 9-sack defensive end Cliff Avril. If Barnes continues his streak of below average play Avril will harass Carson Palmer. If the Raiders intend to keep Palmer from making mistakes they need to keep the pressure out of his face. Jared Veldheer draws a match up against veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch and his 7 sacks. Vanden Bosch is the type of end that Veldheer has been struggling with. Vanden Bosch will combine power and a quick first step that Veldheer has been struggling to deal with. In the middle Cooper Carlisle draws a well rested Ndamukong Suh who served a two game suspension for stomping a Packers offensive lineman. That leaves Stefen Wisniewski and Samson Satele to block Corey Williams.

If the Raiders fall behind and the Lions are able to turn their defensive line loose on the Raiders offensive line things could get ugly. The Raiders offensive line needs to push around the Lions defensive front in the run game and get Michael Bush through cleanly and let him do his work the Lions linebackers and secondary.

Carson Palmer vs. Carson Palmer

Palmer needs to get back to basics. The Raiders are good enough and Palmer is good enough to score points when they aren’t turning the ball over. Palmer has made several inexplicable decisions over the past few weeks and has been making fundamental errors. IF Palmer can clean up his game and avoid making mistakes the Raiders should at least be able to stay in the game. Palmer will hope the Raiders ride Bush hard this week and that should open up things for Palmer in the passing game.

When the Lions have the ball:

Richard Seymour has disappeared from games for several weeks and it prompted a meeting with Hue Jackson this week. Expect Seymour to respond. The Raiders must pressure Matthew Stafford and force him to make mistakes. The Lions are a passing team, but become infinitely more potent offensively when Kevin Smith is  slashing through defenses. The Lions have weapons all over the field. Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew round out the group. The Raiders will need to pressure Stafford into mistakes, if he gets it into the hands of his playmakers the Raiders will be in trouble.

Richard Seymour vs. Stephen Peterman

The Raiders need big game from their defensive leader. Seymour ignites the rest of the defensive line and when he is getting pressure up the middle things up outside for Kamerion Wimbley. It’s a must for Seymour to physically dominate Peterman. The Lions offensive line is prone to giving up pressure and Peterman is the no exception.

Rolando McClain vs. Kevin Smith

Smith is a slasher that thrives on bouncing things outside and getting yards from draws and cutbacks. If Rolando McClain diagnoses plays quickly he can take the Lions rush out of the game. Stafford can catch fire if he has time and the rushing game will help his offensive line tremendously. The Raiders must limit Smith and McClain’s job is to make sure the Raiders have gap integrity, himself included.

Stanford Routt vs. Calvin Johnson

Routt has been playing relatively well. He’s limiting the opponents top receiving option and will need to do so again on Sunday. Forcing Stafford to consider his other option is a win for the Raiders defense and it will be on Routt to make sure Johnson isn’t getting into a groove with Stafford.

Raiders Win If…

1. Raiders give a total effort
2. Raiders protect the ball
3. Raiders force turnovers
4. Raiders stop the run

Raiders Lose If…

1. Raiders do not maintain gap integrity in the running game
2. Raiders turn the ball over more than once
3. Raiders fall behind early
4. Raiders commit more penalties than the  Lions

Week 12 Matchups

 Posted by at 9:30 AM  No Responses »
Nov 272011
 

Defensive Matchups

Rolando McClain vs. Matt Forte

Before Cutler’s injury, Forte carried the Bears offense with nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage. 926 of those yards come on the ground. With continued success and Cutler’s injury, Forte can be an MVP candidate. McClain needs to show leadership and consistent playmaking ability to limit Forte’s production. Stopping Chicago’s offense starts with containing Forte.

Tommy Kelly vs. Roberto Garza

With Seymour’s injury, Kelly becomes the Raiders best defensive tackle. Garza, the Bears’ center, anchors the Bears offensive line. The winner of this matchup will go a long way in showing what team will control the tempo and what team will control the line of scrimmage.

Chuck Bresnahan vs. Caleb Hanie

With very limited tape of Hannie, Bresnahan is going to test the young quarterback. Watch for Hanie’s mobility to play a key part as Bresnahan mixes coverages and blitz packages.

X-Factor

Matt Giordano

Giordano is not great at tacking in the open field but he is great at reading young quarterback’s eyes and making game-changing interceptions.

Offensive Matchups

Michael Bush vs. Brian Urlacher

Urlacher is a perennial pro-bowler and a potential Hall of Famer, there are only a few linebackers that compare to him. Urlacher is the heart and soul of the Chicago Bears. Bush will need to fight through the linebackers to get the secondary.

Jared Veldheer vs. Julius Peppers

Peppers is a different kind of defensive end than Jared Allen. Peppers is more of a complete defensive end, he plays the run as well as he rushes the passer. With a performance like last week, Veldeer will get his hat thrown in to the Pro Bowl discussion.

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Tillman

Tillman isn’t great in coverage. There is a reason why he is the Bears leading tackler. With the Bears having a stout front seven, look for Palmer to pick on Tillman to loosen up the defense. On Sunday, Tillman will need to do more than create a fumble to have a good game.

X-Factor

Louis Murphy

With injuries to the wide receiver core, Murphy will likely receive more snaps than he has all season. Murphy will try to work out his frustration and should play with a chip on his shoulder. Look for Murphy to prove himself.

 Older Entries  Newer Entries