Week 13 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 9:00 AM  No Responses »
Dec 022011
 

Quarterback

Carson Palmer is lighting up the field now, and helping to win football games. With the recent slew of quarterback injuries league-wide, you should seriously consider picking up Palmer. He’s back in the saddle and playing well, even in the Fantasy world. Last week he threw for 300+ yards, but had one interception. Depending on if you have a league that’s focused more on yards than points then play him, however, if you rely heavily on a QB’s ability to score, he may not be as beneficial. Last week he threw for no touchdowns, but his stats were great.

Again, play him if you’re looking for yardage, but do so while accounting for one or two interceptions.

Running Backs

Michael Bush is a must play this week. Darren McFadden in still out with no word on when he’ll return. Rookie Taiwan Jones also did not practice on Wednesday, which doesn’t bode well for his chances on Sunday. These factors taken into account, Bush is going to get a ton of carries. While he didn’t score last week, his yardage was key in setting the tone of the game. He’ll be a big factor this weekend.

Marcel Reece caught five passes for 92 yards in Week 12 and is a worthwhile name to keep on your radar. He is currently utilized as a dump-off outlet and is turning them into points. If you are in a deep-points-per-reception league, Reece may prove to be a productive player for you. Monitor his situation closely.

Wide Receivers

We got conflicting practice reports this week for Denarius Moore. Beat reporters saw him practicing on Wednesday, out on the field with helmet and pads, but according to Head Coach Hue Jackson, Moore did not participate. Moore missed last week’s game and is no doubt an explosive player, fully utilizing Palmer’s big arm. For fantasy purposes, owners are encouraged to do their homework leading up to game-time for Moore’s status. Peg him as a WR3 with upside this week, partly due to his injury and his boom-or-bust stat lines.

Jacoby Ford on the other hand was seen jogging, but did not practice as well. Ford commented to reporters that his timetable is well ahead of McFadden’s and is signaling a closer return. But that seems to not be in Week 13. Savvy fantasy players should scoop up Ford as a waiver-wire addition for the fantasy playoffs. The Raiders face Green Bay, Detroit and Kansas City in Weeks 14-16, all defenses that gives up yards. View him as a lottery ticket WR3 or flex option with high upside.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is reportedly pain-free after his scary injury against the Vikings. He’s only playable in the deepest of leagues and possible points-per-reception leagues. The Raiders WR situation is in flux and one that is worth monitoring.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss was a name on plenty of fantasy owners’ minds entering Week 12. But he was held to just one catch for eight yards in the game vs. the Bears. The targets that we assumed would go to tight ends actually went to Reece, the fullback. Look elsewhere for production.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski was named as one of the AFC players of the week. The Raiders big leg kicker connected on six field goals in Week 12 and is 22 of 24 overall on the season. If someone in your league dropped him because of injury, scoop him up for the stretch playoff run. Janikowski did not practice Wednesday but Coach Jackson expects him to play vs. Miami.

Defense/Special Teams

The Raiders took advantage of the mistake-prone Caleb Hanie in Week 12 with three interceptions and allowed 20 points in the game. In Week 13, the advice for fantasy is to reserve caution. The Raiders are squaring off against a rejuvenated Miami offense with weapons all over the field. The Raiders should win, but the possible lack of turnovers in this game may not make this unit a solid play in fantasy. Strong defensive plays in Week 13 include: New England vs. Indianapolis, Denver vs. Minnesota, Atlanta vs. Houston and San Diego vs. Jacksonville.

 

 

Week 12 Matchups

 Posted by at 9:30 AM  No Responses »
Nov 272011
 

Defensive Matchups

Rolando McClain vs. Matt Forte

Before Cutler’s injury, Forte carried the Bears offense with nearly 1,400 yards from scrimmage. 926 of those yards come on the ground. With continued success and Cutler’s injury, Forte can be an MVP candidate. McClain needs to show leadership and consistent playmaking ability to limit Forte’s production. Stopping Chicago’s offense starts with containing Forte.

Tommy Kelly vs. Roberto Garza

With Seymour’s injury, Kelly becomes the Raiders best defensive tackle. Garza, the Bears’ center, anchors the Bears offensive line. The winner of this matchup will go a long way in showing what team will control the tempo and what team will control the line of scrimmage.

Chuck Bresnahan vs. Caleb Hanie

With very limited tape of Hannie, Bresnahan is going to test the young quarterback. Watch for Hanie’s mobility to play a key part as Bresnahan mixes coverages and blitz packages.

X-Factor

Matt Giordano

Giordano is not great at tacking in the open field but he is great at reading young quarterback’s eyes and making game-changing interceptions.

Offensive Matchups

Michael Bush vs. Brian Urlacher

Urlacher is a perennial pro-bowler and a potential Hall of Famer, there are only a few linebackers that compare to him. Urlacher is the heart and soul of the Chicago Bears. Bush will need to fight through the linebackers to get the secondary.

Jared Veldheer vs. Julius Peppers

Peppers is a different kind of defensive end than Jared Allen. Peppers is more of a complete defensive end, he plays the run as well as he rushes the passer. With a performance like last week, Veldeer will get his hat thrown in to the Pro Bowl discussion.

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Tillman

Tillman isn’t great in coverage. There is a reason why he is the Bears leading tackler. With the Bears having a stout front seven, look for Palmer to pick on Tillman to loosen up the defense. On Sunday, Tillman will need to do more than create a fumble to have a good game.

X-Factor

Louis Murphy

With injuries to the wide receiver core, Murphy will likely receive more snaps than he has all season. Murphy will try to work out his frustration and should play with a chip on his shoulder. Look for Murphy to prove himself.

Week 12 Defensive Preview: Stop Forte

 Posted by at 1:51 AM  No Responses »
Nov 272011
 

The Bears come into Oakland minus their starting quarterback Jay Cutler. They will turn from Cutler to Caleb Hanie. It changes the game considerably from what the Raiders would have been facing with Jay Cutler under center. The Bears will not be able to turn to Cutler when the defense stacks the box against Matt Forte and the pressure will be on Hanie to make the defense pay for it.

Running

Matt Forte has more yards from scrimmage and more 20+ and 40+ yards runs than any running back in football. Forte is averaging 155.1 yards per game. Put this in perspective, Matt Forte generates over 47% of the Bears offensive yards. How does the worst run defense in football stop the best running back in football? The Raiders are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Forte is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It doesn’t take a mathematician to do this math Forte could run all over the Raiders if they don’t have a plan to stop him.

Forte is extremely elusive and defenders have missed tackles on him 38 times. Only Michael Turner has more, but Forte has also forced 11 missed tackles in the passing game. Raiders must maintain gap discipline and maintain their fundamentals when trying to bring down Forte.

The Raiders rush defense has been inconsistent and there is debate about just how much the run defense has improved from prior years. Raiders have allowed 38, 223, 100, 183, 70, 65, 139, 299, 75, 124 in games this season. If the Raiders hold the opposing team to less than 125 yards they are 6-0, but are 0-4 when allowing more than 125 yards on the ground.

Without consistency it is difficult to project how the Raiders will fare against a back of Forte’s caliber, but they have demonstrated the ability to stop the run at times this season. The defense is struggling for consistency and holding opponents under 125 in three consecutive weeks would be a step in the right direction. Stopping the run is a combination between attitude, gap discipline and tackling. The Raiders can’t afford to skirt by with only one of the three elements. Pressure is on the linebackers in this game. If Forte runs wild it will be a long afternoon.

Playing with a lead would limit Forte’s role in the game and the Raiders offense can really help out the defense by scoring early.

Passing

Again, the Raiders must worry about Matt Forte. He has 46 receptions for 465 yards coming through the passing game. Forte can be stopped in the passing game by ensuring coverage in the middle of the field. Only 9 of 46 Forte receptions have been to the outside for a total of just 96 yards. He’ll be Caleb Hanie’s security blanket and the Raiders need to know where he is at all times.

Johnnie Knox presents a different challenge. He’s a burner and deep threat for the Bears and averaging nearly 20 yards per reception. Play him physical at the line and make sure he doesn’t get behind you. The Raiders are never speed deficient and may opt to single cover and dare Hanie to throw deep.

Devin Hester is turning into a solid receiver and the Bears may try to get the ball into his hands. The Raiders defense needs to converge on Hester and limit his running lanes for a big play. Earl Bennett and Roy Williams are more station-to-station receivers and Hanie may look to them on third downs.

Raiders should dare Hanie to throw by stacking the box and using inside leverage to force Hanie to make more difficult throws.

Special Teams

The oft ignored third phase of the game takes center stage this Sunday as the Raiders get set to host Devin Hester and the Bears. Hester is one of he best return men in the league. If Shane Lechler and the Raiders elect to kick it in Hester’s direction the coverage teams will need to be ready. All signs indicate the return team is getting prepared for the worst, but don’t expect Lechler to take the risk this Sunday unless necessary.

By The Numbers

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