Do the Raiders Need a Power Back?

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  4 Responses »
Aug 062012
 

Much like the understanding that the NFL has become a passing league, it has also has adopted the “running back by committee” model. In a day and age where running backs seem to be a dime a dozen, teams are less likely to commit to one guy and therefore take on the RBBC approach to the season. With the mindset of having multiple backs sharing the touches, many also assume that each team needs a “speed back” and a “power back”. The idea, of course, being that the power back gets the tough yards and wears down the defense while the speed back plays the finesse role and provides the home run threat to the offense.

The last few years the Raiders have had the luxury of a backfield that consisted of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. In some ways, it seemed to be the perfect combination power and speed that would be a nightmare for any defense. Except when you break down the games when both running backs were healthy last year, you saw more of McFadden wearing down the defense and Bush playing more of a backup/short yardage role. Bush only averaged 7 touches per game through the first 6 games last season while McFadden was averaging nearly 22. With that stat alone, it’s tough to make any kind of argument that Bush had a big impact on games while McFadden was playing.

Of course Bush was also used as the short yardage back which lead many to wonder how the Raiders would convert short yardage plays without him. There is no doubting that Bush was pretty effective in short yardage and he proved that over the last three years by converting a respectable 42% (15 for 36) of his carries inside the 5 yard line for touchdowns according to Chet Gresham of writing for thefakefootball.com. However, with Bush getting most of the short yardage carries, it was assumed that McFadden couldn’t handle those duties when that is far from the truth.

Per the same data, McFadden has converted 7 of his 9 attempts from inside the 5 yard line over the last three years (78%). That conversion percentage is tops in the league for that statistic, meaning McFadden is more than capable of converting short yardage plays as well. Cedric Benson, who many have been calling for to replace Michael Bush, had a 31% (12 for 39) conversion rate from inside the 5 over that same span.

While McFadden possesses the speed and agility to turn any play into a home run, he certainly is not your prototypical speed back by any means. McFadden brings with him a wicked stiff arm and is not afraid to lower his pads and seek contact. Take a look at a few examples:

However, even though Darren has the ability to do it all, Dennis Allen will have to find the right balance between his running backs and not overuse him throughout the season. Mike Goodson and Taiwan Jones are vying for the backup role and both have the ability to provide a spark off the bench to help keep McFadden rested, but neither bring much value to the short yardage game. Owen Schmitt and Marcel Reece will get a chance to show what they can bring to the backfield at times this year too, and both are capable of hammering out a few yards when needed. Lonyae Miller is also one to keep an eye on. Miller has a much more hard-nosed running style was impressive at times with Dallas last season. Be careful how quickly you judge the unknowns like Miller, because Arian Foster was also once an undrafted free agent.

When people talk about wearing down defenses, why is it that big backs always come to mind? Sure they can punish tacklers at times, but more times than not bigger backs are slower to the hole and can be bottled up and gang tackled before doing much damage. Speed backs on the other hand force the defense to always be chasing for fear of being a step late and giving up a potential touchdown on every play. You factor in a guy like Chris Johnson who can stop on a dime and reverse field and McFadden who can deliver a devastating stiff arm if you do finally catch up to him and you begin to reevaluate which one would wear you down quicker.

What the Oakland Raiders Free Agency Activity Means for Team in 2012

 Posted by at 7:00 AM  5 Responses »
Mar 192012
 

The Oakland Raiders came into the offseason with salary cap issues and needing to improve a team that finished a disappointing 8-8 last season. New general manager Reggie McKenzie was hired to reshape the Raiders’ front office and establish a new philosophy to guide the team into the future.

McKenzie has a plan and as time passes his philosophies will slowly be revealed. So far, McKenzie has made a flurry of moves designed to help the Raiders reach short-term and long-term goals such as getting under the salary cap and shedding back-loaded contracts that would have handicapped his plans in 2013 and beyond.

A lot of activity doesn’t always indicate a lot of change. As it stands, the Raiders will return 16 of 22 starters.

 

What does the Raiders activity or lack of activity mean for the team in 2012?

 

1. Reggie McKenzie wants to win and knows how to build a team to do it.

Overreacting, overvaluing and overpaying is not a recipe for success in the NFL. The most successful teams find value. Making a big splash is free agency is usually a recipe for failure.

The top free agents are almost always overvalued and no team loses a player they truly want to keep.

Without the cap flexibility, the Raiders were never going to be big players in free agency, but instead of signing one top free agent and overpaying for his services, McKenzie has already brought in two value free agents at positions of significant need.

McKenzie knows building a winner requires patience. Even with limited cap space the Raiders should be able to sign a handful of free agents that can help the team for a reasonable price.

The moves being made aren’t just moves to help the team in the future, but moves that can have a positive impact on the win total in 2012.

 

2. The Raiders may struggle to find a natural pass rush.

With the release of Kamerion Wimbley, the Raiders lose their best edge rusher. Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly will continue to apply pressure up the middle, but the Raiders lack a natural edge rusher.

A healthy Matt Shaughnessy will help the pass rush, but the Raiders will still have to rely on the blitz much more than they ever have before.

The struggle with the blitz is that elite quarterbacks can beat it consistently and the Raiders’ division could be adding another in the form of Peyton Manning to go along with Philip Rivers.

McKenzie still has time to find a natural edge rusher, but as it stands the Raiders will have to manufacture pressure on the quarterback.

Allen’s entire defense hinges on the team’s ability to get a pass rush, so the blitzing safeties and linebackers will have to execute in their new roles.

 

3. Darren McFadden’s health is vitally important.

Dennis Allen hinted that the Raiders would look into if the practice fields were contributing to the high-rate of foot injuries the team had sustained over the last few years. If the Raiders’ practice field has contributed to foot and leg injuries, McFadden has been hurt by it the most.

Michael Bush is testing the free agent market and is likely to find a team that will make him a full-time starter. That leaves Taiwan Jones and Marcel Reece to backup McFadden.

Jones and Reece are both very capable, but neither are proven running the ball or carrying the load when an injured starter goes down.

With Carson Palmer in the fold, the team can survive without McFadden, but if the team has playoff aspirations McFadden must stay healthy.

 

4. The offensive line is in flux again.

The Raiders offensive line has been in a constant state of change over the past decade. Tom Cable and the zone-blocking scheme initially brought some success, but that quickly faded and the Raiders began the transition back to the man blocking scheme over the past two seasons.

Greg Knapp’s return to Oakland means the zone-blocking scheme is coming back and the Raiders return only two of the five starters on the offensive line from a season ago.

To solidify the offensive line, the Raiders signed right guard Mike Brisiel from the Houston Texans. Brisiel is a solid zone-blocking guard that will provide a nice upgrade over Cooper Carlisle. Brisiel may also help implement the scheme as he is familiar with Knapp and offensive line coach Frank Pollack.

The question remains what the Raiders will do at right tackle, left guard and center. Stefen Wisniewski will either stay at guard or move to center and the Raiders will need to address whichever position Wisniewski doesn’t play.

The theory behind the zone-blocking scheme is that high-priced lineman are not required if the team knows what traits to look for in an offensive lineman. The Raiders will put the theory to the test in 2012.

Jared Veldheer and Stefen Wisniewski will also have to learn the zone-blocking system. Both should be able to pick up the scheme and both have traits that should translate, but it’s still something new and developing a new skill takes time away from their development of existing skills.

The Raiders should be able to run the ball, but pass protection could be an issue when the line might have three new starters.

Perhaps Joseph Barksdale is ready to compete for a starting job and maybe the zone-scheme can salvage Bruce Campbell’s career.

In the end, the offensive line could be a strength or a weakness of this team. We’ll just have to wait and see.

 

5. The Raiders will be much better in coverage.

The Raiders released 2011 starters Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson, but brought back Michael Huff and Tyvon Branch. After a terrible year in coverage, a few changes were merited and McKenzie has started the process of solidifying the secondary.

McKenzie signed Ron Bartell to play cornerback on a modest one-year deal. It’s the kind of bargain contract that can pay huge dividends for the Raiders if Bartell is fully recovered from a neck injury he sustained early last season.

Bartell is 30 and had seven solid seasons in St. Louis before being released. He still has all the physical tools to be successful and he can obviously play, but even if there was some question if Bartell had lost a step, McKenzie is known for his ability to tell which players can play and which players can’t.

The Raiders have to figure out what to do on the other cornerback position. One option is free agent cornerback Tracy Porter who will have a visit with the team later this week according to Vittorio Tafur of the San Francisco Chronicle.

Porter is a young cornerback with the skills that will fit what Dennis Allen likes to do on defense. Porter’s best seasons came when Allen was his position coach in New Orleans.

Allen’s defense will help take the pressure off the secondary, but the changes have already been positive and McKenzie should continue to add solid depth.

2011 Bold Predictions Revisited

 Posted by at 6:48 PM  No Responses »
Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

Week 13 Preview: Sling It

 Posted by at 9:44 AM  No Responses »
Dec 042011
 

The Raiders land in Miami to face a rejuvenated Dolphins team. It was a few short weeks ago Tony Sparano was on the chopping block. Now, after winning three of the last four, Sparano’s team looks to play spoiler in the AFC. The Dolphins are finding out what they have in quarterback Matt Moore, the defense is playing well and Reggie Bush may be relevant once again.

It was a week full of distraction for the 7-4 Raiders and perhaps that wasn’t a bad thing. The focus could have been on how the Raiders are still unable to get three offensive playmakers on the field. Jacoby Ford Denarius Moore and Darren McFadden remain out of action. Tommy Kelly did not participate in practice and is questionable with toe injury.

There is good news for the Raiders, they get back veteran corner Chris Johnson and Richard Seymour is getting healthy. The offense has been able to manage without Ford, Moore and McFadden, but the defense has been patchy and can use all the help they can get.

The Dolphins are surprising evenly matched with the Raiders and the game could come down to turnovers and special teams play or a defensive score.

Offense

The Dolphins defense is averaging less than 100 yards allowed on the ground. That’s bad news for Michael Bush. The good news for the Raiders is that the Dolphins have been vulnerable through the air.

Palmer is capable and if he can limit mistakes could have a big day ahead of him. The Raiders should use play action early and as the Dolphins’ linebackers will attempt to fill the run. Expect a couple deep shots and for the Raiders to utilize Marcel Reece and more three and four receiver sets than usual to force the Dolphins to take a linebacker off the field. Any of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy or Chaz Schilens could be in for big days.

In the run game, the Raiders could choose to spread the Dolphins out or focus on zone blocking to setup the passing game in the redzone. The zone running style suits Michael Bush and could help the offensive line recover from the physical domination the Bears laid on them last week. Bush is at his best running north and south and the Raiders will try slip Bush past the line and take their chances with Bush against smaller players.

Jared Veldheer draws a matchup against Cameron Wake. Another tough battle for the Raiders young left tackle. After a string a good games, Julius Peppers got the best of him, but don’t expect that to continue, Peppers, when he wants to, can get after the best. Expect Veldheer to handle Wake and keep him away from Palmer most of the day. Samson Satele has a tall order in front of him in Paul Soliai. Every 3-4 defense needs a good nose tackle and that has been Satele’s weakness for years. If the Raiders are able to run, it will be because of the play of Satele.

Defense

The Dolphins have found a rejuvenated passing game behind Matt Moore and the Raiders are still struggling to collect themselves on defense. Richard Seymour has been nursing a sore knee but it is healing. If Reggie Bush splits wide the Raiders will cover him with a safety such as Mike Mitchell or Michael Huff.

Brandon Marshall is the biggest weapon and one that must be handled for the Raiders to have a good day. Stanford Routt shadowed Vincent Jackson against the Chargers only for Vincent Brown to have a monster day. The Dolphins flank Marshall with Brian Hartline. Hartline is certainly capable of doing damage, but he’s hardly the jump-ball threat that Vincent Brown is.

Lamaar Houston has had a good season and that should continue today. The Dolphins offensive line has weaknesses and Houston can exploit them along with his part-time defensive end friend Kamerion Wimbley. Marc Colombo can be beat and Jake Long has taken steps back this season. The Raiders will attack the edge and hope to pressure Matt Moore into mistakes.

Houston could also see time inside at defensive tackle with Tommy Kelly’s status in doubt due to a toe injury.

As has been the key for the Raiders, the linebackers must step up and stop the run to allow the big men up front to rush the passer. That’s the Raiders game.

Special Teams

Special teams could be the difference between a win and a loss between two surprisingly evenly matched teams. Coverage units need to keep Clyde Gates from getting his feet moving in the return game. Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler need only to continue to do their thing.

X-Factor

 

Would be easy to say turnovers. The team with more usually wins, particularly when the teams are so evenly matched. Perhaps more important for the Raiders to covert in the redzone and score touchdowns. Carson Palmer, Michael Bush and the rest of the offense have struggled punching the ball into the redzone. The Raiders need to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns and not just field goals.

By The Numbers

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The Raiders Linebacker Problem

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  4 Responses »
Oct 062011
 

The strength of the Raiders defense as everyone knows is the defensive line. It is anchored by six-time pro-bowler Richard Seymour and 300-pounder Tommy Kelly. The defensive line also features two young stout defensive ends, Matt Shaugnessey and Lamarr Houston. This season has also featured plays by run stuffing 330 pounder John Henderson and a resurgent Jarvis Moss. This unit is the undeniable strength of the defense.

Coming into this season the biggest question regarding the Raiders defense was in the secondary. With Nnamdi leaving, the spotlight has been on Stanford Routt and he has quietly delivered. Tyvon Branch has made his fair share of plays, but he’s still working to improve his consistency. These two starters of the secondary are the only two starters that have stayed healthy and that played four games. Michael Huff, Chris Johnson, Mike Mitchell and DeMarcus Van Dyke have all missed time and the backups have played like backups. Once these four players return the play and potential of the secondary unit will come into focus.

What about the linebackers? Coming into the season, they were neither the strength of the defense nor the weakness. This unit has two former 1st round picks in Rolondo McClain and Kamerion Wimbley and a 2nd round pick in Quentin Groves. Since week 1, the Raiders linebackers have been struggling. The biggest problem with this unit is that Wimbley and Groves were both drafted into this league primarily on their pass rushing abilities and not their outside linebacker skills. Both of these men, are outside rush linebackers in a 3-4 system or a defensive end in the nickel or dime in passing situations. The problem with this unit is that Groves and Wimbley are not 4-3 outside linebackers.

McClain is a work in progress. Some plays, he makes a pass deflection or he makes the correct read, fills the correct gap and stuffs the run. But too often, he is slow to react, plays too high, takes bad angles and is easily sealed off. McClain can be a quality run stuffing middle linebacker but right now he needs his outside linebacker to back him up when he makes mistakes. Unfortunately for McClain, his outside linebackers are not linebackers who fit the system. This season is not the season to give up on McClain, the Raiders are putting him a very difficult position.

Wimbley and Groves can still find a home with the Raiders. Groves is not a financial liability and could actually provide quality depth in the linebacker or defensive line unit. Given that he isn’t relayed upon to produce as the starting outside linebacker. Wimbley, whose new contract is deserved, is his best and provides the most value when played at defensive end.

With Groves and Wimbley at outside linebacker the Raiders are trying to put a square peg in a round hole. Wimbley and Groves provide another example of how Al Davis loves size and speed. Having Wimbley and Groves start at outside linebacker is an experiment. This experiment has resulted in the Raiders owning the worst run defense in the league. Groves and Wimbley both need to quickly complete the transformation into quality 4-3 outside linebackers. If not, Oakland’s run defense will continue to be embarrassed and the Raiders will have to give up the experiment. If the Raiders are to win the AFC West and be playoff team, something has to change.

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