Raiders’ Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 2:21 PM  1 Response »
Nov 182011
 

Quarterback

Carson Palmer is a name that is generating a lot of buzz this week, partly because of his solid stat line in Week 10 (299 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT). It also has to do with the fact that a lot of quarterbacks are injured in fantasy land (Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Michael Vick). Facing off against a depleted Vikings secondary this week, Palmer is a recommended start this week. The Vikings placed cornerback Antoine Winfield in injured reserve and will be counting on Benny Sapp. Unfortunately for Sapp, he will most likely going up against one of the hottest receivers in the NFL in Denarius Moore. With a plethora of options in the passing game, fantasy owners should be able to count on Palmer against a weak Vikings’ secondary this week.

Running Backs

Michael Bush has been a force in the running game, scoring double-digit fantasy games in three straight games. While Darren McFadden has been seen out of his protective walking boot, he has been ruled out for week 11. Fantasy owners can look forward to a full load of work for Bush. Clearly, Bush is running with authority and is making a case to be a full-time starter for the Silver and Black next year or elsewhere. Take advantage of his production while you can. Taiwan Jones is the change-of-pace back, but it’s very hard to trust him. He has shown spurts of breakaway ability, but his chances are limited. Additionally, Jones is struggling in pass-protection, making him an even riskier play as the coaches might want to employ Bush on all three downs.

Wide Receivers

Denarius Moore lit it up last week vs. the Chargers to the tune of 5 receptions for 123 yards and two TDs.  Moore is the best fantasy option when it comes to the Raiders’ wide receiving corps in terms of being the safest option as well as the one possessing the most upside. Consider him a WR2 play this week with the upside of a WR1. Held without a catch for the past two games, Darrius Heyward-Bey is a droppable candidate this late into the season. Sure he may be able to turn things around, but it’s a risky proposition. Acquire depth elsewhere as you make the push towards fantasy playoffs. The same can be said about Jacoby Ford who is battling an injury.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss showed signs of life last week catching two passes for 32 yards. He could develop into a nice option for CP3, but fantasy players should take a wait and see approach when it comes to Boss and the other Raiders’ tight ends. The Raiders just haven’t used the tight end as a weapon in the passing game.

Kicker

Fantasy owners who own Sebastian Janikowski have been frustrated as of late due to his injury. According to Contra Costa Times, Janikowski did not practice Thursday and Hue Jackson called him 97.2% healthy. Roll the dice with Janikowski or look into the availability of Rob Bironas of the Titans. When his team is playing well and Chris Johnson is running well  it gives him both the opportunity for PATs and field goals.

Defense/Special Teams

Don’t be tempted to play the Raiders’ defense or special teams this week even if they are facing the Vikings. The Vikings have played their opponents tough (disregard their last game vs. Packers game as it was a blowout). The Raiders’ defensive unit has been tough to rely on, giving fantasy owners negative points in three games this year. Also, the loss of Ford in the return game makes them a risky start as the Vikings have an emerging offense led by the poise of Christian Ponder and the dangerous Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.

Raiders’ Obstacles and Weapons

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  2 Responses »
Nov 172011
 

The Raiders are one of the most up and down teams in the NFL, but with good reason. At the beginning of the season, they rose with the Autumn wind, fueled by the emotion of the passing of Mr. Silver and Black himself. They looked unstoppable; that is, until Campbell got hurt. The team, who still has no real, official front office leadership, had to make a snap decision about what to do since the signing deadline was looming. This landed Carson Palmer squarely into the black hole, and the rest of the team started looking like just that: a black hole. Then the Autumn wind picked up again and the team is cruising steadily. Though they’re headed in the right direction, there are still some massive things to look out for, both good and bad.

Raiders’ Biggest Obstacles

Penalties
It’s still no secret that the Raiders are the most penalized team in the NFL, which is not unique to this season. This seems to be something that needs constant work and attention. Even a casual Raiders fan can think of at least one game that was lost on a penalty. This remains their biggest obstacle.

Play Calling
Hue Jackson is seemingly trying to fill the shoes of Head Coach and Al Davis, one of which he is new to and the other is impossible. You could see the desperation and over-confidence in his face when he prematurely threw down the challenge flag last week. Hue Jackson, while doing a good job overall, tends to get in his own way. His ability to out-think himself and put the weight of the Raider Nation on his shoulders is most definitely an obstacle.

The O-Line
While they did a pretty good job last week, the O-line is the scapegoat for a lot of problems. If a quarterback has no blocking, he can’t throw; it’s as simple as that. If he gets sacked, he gets hurt, and Boller goes in, which NO ONE wants except maybe his mother, unless she’s a Raiders fan. The O-line needs to protect their quarterback. If he has time, plays happen and games are won.

Raiders Biggest Weapons

The Run Game
Even with DMC out, the Raiders have been able to generate a ton of yards utilizing the run game. Michael Bush is a number two running back, but when given the chance, he always rises to the occasion. This is a weapon the Raiders use effectively and consistently. Taiwan Jones brings up the next weapon.

Rookies
Sure, coaches have had half a season to get a look at some of these Raider rookies, but not a good one, which works to the Raiders’ benefit. Denarius Moore lit up the field last Thursday and quickly took Who’s-Yo-Mamma’s place as Palmer’s number one receiver. Taiwan Jones played a very valuable part and averaged 5.6 yards per carry against the Chargers. The ability of their rookies to step up, play where needed, and excel is a huge benefit.

A Veteran Quarterback
While many questioned the signing of Carson Palmer for two weeks (three if you count the bye), they were silenced on Thursday. Taking a closer look at Palmer’s initial play would show you there was nothing to worry about and he just needed to fall in sync with his players. He now provides the team with steady veteran leadership, which they haven’t had from a quarterback since the Gannon years.

Seven Things From Thursday Night

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Nov 142011
 

1. TAG! YOU’RE IT. – Michael Bush proved once again just how productive he can be as a starter in this league.  His 242 yards from scrimmage were the most by a Raider since the merger.  The Raiders need to use the franchise tag on him in the off-season, as its clear he is worth it.  It’s a steep price to pay for a backup runningback, but as this league continues to remind us, you cannot just rely on one.

2. PLAYING FAVORITES - Looks like Carson Palmer found his go-to guy in rookie wide out Denarius Moore.  Moore has come on strong the last two weeks and is finding his groove with Palmer.  Moore brought in 5 receptions for 123 yards and 2 TDs, including one of the best catches you’ll see all season.  The sky’s the limit for this kid, as he continues to wow the Raider Nation and develop a rapport with the Raiders new signal caller.

3. WIMBLEY IS BACK - Hue Jackson said Kamerion Wimbley would get his sacks in bunches, but who could predict he’d grab four against the Chargers, doubling his season total in 60 minutes of inspired football?  Wimbley took advantage of the injured Chargers offensive line with great pass rush moves.  Wimbley really focused on ripping the inside arm and dropping that inside shoulder on the edge, giving him a quicker more direct route to the quarterback.  We’ll see if we have to wait another eight games for this Wimbley to re-surface, or if this game was the catalyst to a big second half.

4. GOING VERTICAL -  Carson Palmer completed 14 of 20 passes for 299 yards and 2 scores.  He did throw one interception, but that was due to a missed cut-block by Bush, leading to Palmer getting hit as he threw.  What was most impressive was that those 14 completions were for an average of 15 yards a pop.  Not only is the strength there, the 2006-2008 strength, but the accuracy throwing the ball down the field is there as well.  You know Al was watching that game up there with a big smile on his face, the old man loved the vertical passing game.  Looks like the Raiders finally have one.

5. THE SURE THING – When the Raiders predictably drafted Penn State offensive lineman Stefan Wisniewski, the pundits claimed that he would fit perfectly with the Raiders, as his uncle did.  But I don’t thing anyone thought he’d do it so quickly.  Wisniewski filled in for injured Samson Satele at center and had an excellent game.  Calling out blitzes, controlling the line, making adjustments.  He plays the position like a grizzled veteran, and the Silver and Black will have a leader on that line for years to come.

6. DEUCES – The Raiders continue to have success against opposing team’s top wide receiver.  They held Vincent Jackson to one catch for 22 yards (targeted 7 times).  The Raiders are 10th in the NFL in yards allowed to primary targets, but are 28th in yards allowed to the number two wide out.  The trend continued Thursday night as Charger rookie Vincent Brown had 5 catches for 97 yards, including an incredible touchdown grab in double coverage. Brown’s second long touchdown catch was overturned upon review.

7. DEFENSIVE REBOUND -  After getting torched by Tebow and the Broncos for 300 yards on the ground, the Raiders defense rebounded big time, allowing only 75 yards on Thursday night.  They still gave up an average of 5 yards a rush, but they prevented the big play.  They contained the ground game and routinely forced San Diego into tough third downs, which they were 5 of 16 converting on the night.  Rivers never got going, and was 23-47 on the night.  He missed a lot of easy throws and was out of sync with his receivers all evening.

Week 10 Preview: Short Week, Short Handed

 Posted by at 3:58 PM  6 Responses »
Nov 102011
 

Wow.  That was ugly.  The Raiders have played themselves into a corner after dropping two straight divisional games to less talented football teams.  After the “bully” had his nose broken on Sunday, the Raiders will have to heal quickly because one of the biggest games of the season comes on only three days rest.

The Raiders gave up 300 rushing yards to the Denver Broncos.  That’s not a typo.  A college-style option offense torched the Oakland defense en route to a 34-21 upset win on Sunday.  The Raiders were undisciplined in every aspect of the game.  They had 15 penalties for 130 yards.  Players didn’t stay true to their assignments, and were caught out of position, with Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee ripping them for huge gains.  Linebackers were leaving gaps uncovered, defensive ends got burned bending down the line and lost contain, and the punt coverage team took bad angles in pursuit.

Michael Bush had a nice game in the starting role, 19 carries for 96 yards and 33 yards receiving.  Jacoby Ford had a big game and Marcel Reece was welcomed back to the mix with a beautiful laser thrown by Carson Palmer, which Reece caught in traffic for a 40 yard score.  Carson threw 3 interceptions but actually had a decent game.  His arm strength looks to be there and made some really impressive throws.  His decision-making will have to improve, as well as his handle on the offense, but it was definitely a step in the right direction.

The Raiders face another rival Thursday night in San Diego.  We know about Phillip Rivers, we know about Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, we know Norv Turner.  There shouldn’t be any surprises.  The Raiders are limping into this game.  No Darren McFadden, no Demarcus Van Dyke and no Chris Johnson.  Eight other starters are questionable with injuries.

The Raiders biggest challenge comes at a time when they are playing their worst football.  A win could spark a run, unifying the team and pushing them into the second half of the season with momentum.  A loss, would be their third in a row and threaten this team’s once promising 2011 campaign.

OFFENSE

We’ll see another 20-25 carries from Michael Bush with McFadden out.  Bush is a good runner, always gains positive yards, and enjoys the pressure of stepping into the starting role.  However, he doesn’t have big home-run hitting capability like McFadden.  Hue Jackson will have to work to keep the Raiders in manageable third down situations which require an effective ground game.

You can’t turn the ball over against this team.  It’s going to be hard enough to stop this offense without giving them extra possessions.  Carson Palmer needs to make smart decisions, spread the ball around, and not zero in on his targets.  He was telegraphing a lot of his passes last week and he needs to freeze the safety longer to open up routes for his receivers and find holes in the Charger zone.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Carson Palmer vs. Eric Weddle

In six quarters of play, Palmer has 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Having a 1-2 touchdown interception ratio will not win many games. Weddle has 5 of San Diego’s 8 interceptions. If Palmer is to lead Oakland to its first victory in nearly a month, he needs to minimize his turnovers.

Micheal Bush vs. Donald Butler & Takeo Spikes

Bush is a high quality running back, who if given more opportunities could easily reach the 1,000 yard marker. Butler and Spikes anchor the Charger defense. They have combined for over 100 tackles this season. Compare that to McClain and Wimbley, who have combined total of 73.

X- FACTOR

Kevin Boss

Carson Palmer needs to find his talented tight end in this game.  The Chargers have only allowed one 100 yard receiver this year, but they have given up five touchdowns to tight ends in eight games.  Boss, who was really only used on special teams against Denver, does a wonderful job finding spots in the zone and can be a real asset in the redzone if Jackson gets him on the field.

 

DEFENSE

Ryan Matthews is healthy, and he’ll split carries with Mike Tolbert.  The Raiders have the talent on that side of the ball to be a stout defense against the run.  The problem has never been between the lines, but between the ears.  The Raiders need to play smart, disciplined, gap control defense. After studying the Denver game, Norv Turner will try to run the ball down Chuck Bresnahan’s esophagus to take pressure off Rivers.  If the Raiders are unable to stop the run, it could be a long afternoon for this unit.

Looks like Malcolm Flloyd will miss Sunday’s game.  The Raiders will start cornerback Lito Shepphard because of injuries to the secondary.  Oakland generally doesn’t match up cornerbacks with specific wide receivers, but if there was a time to do it, this is the game.  Routt needs to handle Vincent Jackson, who has had a relatively disappointing year until he exploded for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns Sunday against Green Bay.

The Raiders don’t really have a player to matchup with Antonio Gates.  Expect Mike Mitchell to draw some one-on-one coverage with Gates or the freshly signed Jerome Boyd.  The Raiders will try to blitz Rivers, but if they don’t get it to him, it’s going to make Rivers job far too easy.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Marcus McNeil

Wimbley is coming off his worse game of the season, as he missed an open sack on Tebow and lost outside containment on a number of runs. McNeil, is still San Diego’s franchise left tackle, but is not having his best year. Wimbley has been consistently applying pressure all season. To live up to his big contract, Wimbley needs to start turning pressures into sacks.

Aaron Curry vs. Mike Tolbert & Ryan Matthews

With McClain’s injury, Curry is now the Raiders defensive quarterback. Much of the 299 rushing yards yielded last week can be attributed to Curry’s poor play and leadership. San Diego’s running backs account for 1,387 total yards from scrimmage, with almost half those coming in the passing game.

X Factor

Chuck Bresnahan

The Raiders heavily criticized Defensive Coordinator is probably coaching for his job tomorrow night.  He knows his unit is banged up and doesn’t have the talent in the secondary to compete with Rivers’ weapons.  He is going to dial-up the blitz early and often.  He knows he needs to get Rivers on his back.  Defensive line stunts, corner blitzes, it’s all going to be in the game plan Thursday night.  Much of this team’s success will rely on stopping the run.  Chuck needs to make sure his guys are in the right position and are educated on the Chargers running game.  Bresnahan is familiar with the Chargers offense, so look for him to put his best players in positions to make big plays.

Predictions

Nick’s Pick

As much as I would like to think this is the game where the Raiders come together and put together an inspiring and motivational win to spark the rest of the season, I just don’t see it happening with the 22 guys they are marching out there.  Palmer will continue to improve, but Rivers will finally get back on track as the Chargers second half rise begins.

Raiders 23, Chargers 31,

Brandon’s Pick

After two embarrassing AFC West loses in Oakland, the spotlight is on Hue Jackson to find balance and right the ship. The Raiders woes will continue, and this time in primetime.

Raiders 17, Chargers 24

A Tale of Two Seasons

 Posted by at 12:50 PM  No Responses »
Nov 052011
 

It’s been a NFL season full of abnormalities due to the lockout and the Raiders have been no exception. Many thought the Raiders would finally find their grove. The team finally had a guy they could call their franchise quarterback in Jason Campbell and they were full of young talent at just about every position. Hue Jackson, a fiery new coach, seemed to have the right formula for success. It started well enough, until week 5 when the wheels started to come off.

The Raiders lost their fearless leader Al Davis. While the Raiders were able to rally to beat the Texans that week, it was easy to tell that things were not the same in Oakland. Although often scrutinized for his managerial decisions, Al Davis ran things his way and answered to no one. Meaning when it came time to make decisions, they were made, and people moved on. Uncertainty was the word of the week when it came to how the Raiders would move forward. It didn’t take long to find out who was now making the calls. Hue Jackson quickly took the reigns and swung a trade for former first-round draft pick Aaron Curry to replace then starting weak-side linebacker Quentin Groves.

In the very next game against Cleveland, the Raiders took another big blow as starting QB Jason Campbell went down with a broken clavicle. The Raider faithful was in disbelief. A season that showed so much promise was quickly taking a turn for the worse. The Raiders managed to hold on and win that game on the strength of Janikowski’s leg and a fake field goal pass to Kevin Boss for a touchdown. The win was bitter sweet as Oakland, now 4-2, was left wondering who was going to finish the season at quarterback. Kyle Boller did very little in relief of Campbell against Cleveland and it was painfully obvious the coaching staff did not have faith in his abilities to run the offense.

Hue Jackson knew the season was hanging in the balance and, with his added decision-making power, began negotiations on a bigger than blockbuster trade that brough Caron Palmer to Oakland. Jackson called up his old buddy Mike Brown and persuaded him to hand over the key to a former Pro Bowl quarterback who was sitting out in protest of playing another season in Cincinnati. Palmer did not come cheap as the Raiders sent the Bengals a first round pick in 2012 and a conditional first round pick in 2013. With the acquisition came many questions. How much did Palmer have left? How quickly could he pick up the offense? Would he be able to gel with Oakland’s young receiving core? Would he be ready in time for the next game? Did the Raiders give up too much of the future in panic of having this season be lost?

The NFL season does not stop to allow a franchise to catch its breath. The Raiders had an important divisional game to get ready for against the Kansas City Chiefs. Having only a couple of days in Oakland before the next game, it was pretty clear that Kyle Boller had to make the start against the Chiefs. Adding to the list of problems for the Raiders, kicker Sebastian Janikowski injured his hamstring in practice and running back Darren McFadden sprained his foot on the opening drive and would not return. After an atrocious first half and opening series in the second half that saw Kyle Boller seemingly throwing more completions to Kansas City defensive backs than his own receivers, Hue had seen enough. In came Carson Palmer who knew all of 15 plays in his new offense and had essentially no time to get any type of timing down with his new wide receivers. The rest of the game concluded as you would expect. Palmer threw three interceptions and the Raiders offense was clearly in shambles. To say the offense wasn’t on the same page would insinuate that it appeared they were even reading the same book. From the looks of things, it wasn’t clear that was true. After a 28-0 loss, the bye week couldn’t get here soon enough.

The Raiders had two weeks to get things straight before division games against Denver and San Diego within a span of five days. Hue Jackson, still trying to adjust to all the turmoil, was not done making waves. He brought in T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a workout and eventually signed him to a veteran minimum deal much to the dismay of a lot of fans who did not understand the reason behind the signing. Houshmandzadeh played with Carson Palmer for six seasons, and has trained with him in the offseason for many years.  Veteran knowledge and timing with your quarterback are very undervalued in this league today.

Heading into the second half  the Raiders are essentially starting a whole new season. Not only are they tied for first in the AFC West with San Diego and Kansas City, but they are beginning the second half with a new starting quarterback, the backup running back, a new receiver, and the return of fullback Marcel Reece. Reece has been out of the lineup with an ankle injury since week two.

While many may expect Carson Palmer to take off as the Raiders new starting quarterback, you have to take a step back to realize what is actually unfolding in Oakland. How many times in NFL history has a starting quarterback gone down mid-season, only to have the team trade for quarterback that had been unemployed and pick up right where they left off? Fans should absolutely have faith in the Raiders new Palmer-led offense, but should also understand that patience will be essential. The Raiders face an up hill climb to winning the AFC West. That climb starts on Sunday when Denver comes to town. Nothing would begin to heal the wounds better than a thrashing of Tim Tebow and the Broncos in front of a sold out O.co Coliseum crowd.

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