Raiders’ Week 9 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 9:21 AM  No Responses »
Nov 052011
 

Quarterback

This position, in regards to Fantasy, is less of a crap shoot than it was two weeks ago, but there’s still no way to confidently say play Palmer over other QBs in the NFL. Palmer’s play against the Chiefs was not an indication of his future play because he was unprepared and didn’t have his go-to: Darren McFadden. He was just trying to clean up Boller’s mess. This week he still won’t have McFadden, but he will have T.J. “Who’s-Yo-Mama” Houshmandzadeh with whom he practiced during his “retirement.” Housh will give Palmer a reliable target that he’s comfortable with and can go to on third downs, or any other down for that matter. It would irresponsible to give a definitive “go!” for starting Palmer on your team this week. On the bright side, Tebow will make him look like a pro-bowler again.

Running Back

All of you who have been reaping the benefits of McFadden’s success have probably been drinking yourself to sleep after seeing him leave practice in a boot. Leave the kool-aid alone though because he’ll be back. Until then you can play Michael Bush and/or Taiwan Jones. While neither will get tons of yards, they’ll still get decent numbers, especially Bush. Palmer may go more to the air since he’s got his training-mate on the team now, but the Raiders’ success has been built on the run. Luckily, the Broncos will be unprepared since it’s unclear if the game will be more passing or rushing. Play Bush, he should get 20 carries. The key to winning with regard to your Fantasy team is just remembering to sit McFadden and play someone who will actually run.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey is the only receiver worth owning in terms of fantasy production. The addition of Houshmandzadeh to the mix really muddies the water for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. If you’ve been stashing Moore this year, it’s OK to cut him loose now unless you are in a keeper league. Houshmandzadeh was quoted saying that there are a lot of fast guys on the team but they’re not as polished as route-runners. While he is definitely positioning himself within the team, there is a morsel of truth to that. Moore and Ford stretches the field in a way they play and cannot be counted on for consistent production. Coming off a bye, we’re hoping that DHB has built some sort of rapport with Palmer and he is proving doubters wrong. Right now he is considered to be a low-end WR2 and strong WR3.

Tight End

Kevin Boss can make a sneaky play this week for owners truly desperate for a TE. Oakland is squaring off against a Broncos defense who have been pretty stout thus far to opposing tight ends, but coming off a bye, the Raiders could play at a maximum effort to keep pace in the AFC West. The addition of Houshmandzadeh definitely hurts his value, as they both operate in the middle of the field. Boss is definitely a player worth keeping an eye on to see how Carson Palmer utilizes him.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski hasn’t been able to practice this week and Dave Rayner may get the call again. Avoid this situation if you can. Some strong plays this week include Matt Bryant who is squaring off against the Colts indoors.

Defense/Special Teams

While the Raiders defense has ranked towards the bottom in most statistical categories this year, this is a defense with value this week vs. Tim Tebow. The Raiders defense has played better than their stats suggests with Richard Seymour leading the way. Tebow is turnover prone and he is susceptible to the pass rush. Seymour alone could match his season sack total of five in this game, to double his output for the season. And yeah, I don’t need to tell you that Ford is returning kicks for this game. It’s added incentive for you to play them this week.

Studs and Duds From Week 7

 Posted by at 12:32 PM  No Responses »
Oct 252011
 

Studs

Michael Bush

While he was stone-walled at the goal line by Derrick Johnson three times he still managed to put up a very respectable game with 99 rushing yards on 17 carries. That’s a very healthy 5.8 yards per carry. He managed a respectable game despite little to no threat passing and an early two score deficit. He wasn’t amazing, but no one was on Sunday.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

He snarred another 5 balls for 89 yards and he’s the Raiders leading receiver and it isn’t close. Heyward-Bey is on pace for over 1100 yards receiving on 72 receptions. Over the past four games Heyward-Bey is averaging 96 yards and 6 receptions. If that trend continues he’ll finish the season with 82 receptions for nearly 1400 yards. It probably will not continue at the same level, but it is worth noting. Ten receivers finished the 2010 season with more than 1100 yards and only Brandon Lloyd finished 2010 with more than 1400 yards. The sample is still relatively small, but Heyward-Bey may have finally arrived. 

Aaron Curry

Flying around and consistently around the ball. He hasn’t looked as lost in coverage as he did in Seattle. The Raiders turned in another solid performance against the run and Curry was a big part of it. The Raiders have been playing a lot of big nickel and Curry isn’t a part of it, but what the Raiders have asked him to do he has done well. Let’s hope it continues as he gets more and more comfortable in the defense.

Demarcus Van Dyke

 He did allow a few receptions, but he was targeted a lot and had pretty solid coverage most of the game. Obviously he is a rookie so he is still learning things. He showed more willingness to tackle and use his body on Sunday. He’s thinly built, but he’ll get bigger and can’t shy away from contact. Rod Woodson and Kevin Ross have done a good job with the Raiders young corners. It wasn’t a great game for him, but it was a good game and worthy of recognition.

Honorable Mentions: Tyvon Branch, Stanford Routt, Lamarr Houston

 

Duds

Kyle Boller

It would be easy to write and entire post here about how poor Boller played. He locked onto receivers, he made bad decisions. There just isn’t a lot to say. If the Raiders have their way he wont start again and he shouldn’t.

Hue Jackson

Just for talking large and then letting his team put up a goose egg is enough for dud status this week for the Raiders leader. He’s wearing a lot of hats now and made a spectacle of the Raiders acquisition of Carson Palmer. Then there was a decision on who to start at quarterback and some shoddy playcalling. Hue did just about everything wrong last week, but those same moves are genius if the Raiders win. That’s just life as a coach that talks a big game. He’s only seven games into his head coaching career and will rebound from the loss and learn from some of his mistakes.

Denarius Moore

Four of the six interceptions were in the direction of Denarius Moore including one that bounced off his chest. Perhaps the quarterbacks placed a little too much confidence that Moore would “make a play” and it seems like there was a communication issue and a poorly run route among the interceptions. Boller has to make the right decisions, but Moore wasn’t helping on Sunday.

Jared Veldheer

At least one of the interceptions was the result of pressure from Tamba Hali. Hali bull rushed Veldheer and blew through him giving Boller less than two seconds to make his read. He was blown into the backfield numerous times and failed to get enough of a push at the goaline to open up things for Bush on the wildcat run that would have made it 14-7. He’s had a very good season, but he struggled with Hali.

Dishonorable mention: Carson Palmer, Samson Satele

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Raiders’ Week 7 Fantasy Impact

 Posted by at 1:15 PM  No Responses »
Oct 212011
 

Quarterback

Not sure what to tell you here except don’t play Campbell or Boller. Obviously. Al Saunders basically told everyone that Palmer will start, but Jackson is trying to “surprise” people on Sunday. Hue, your surprises are welcome in Raider Nation, but not in Fantasy Land. Pick up Palmer as your QB if you need one this week because chances are very good he’ll start. That being said, he has a big playbook to learn. He’s worked with Jackson before at USC and Cincy, so he knows his style, but hasn’t had the time to memorize the NFL’s most prolific playbook. This leaves the chance of interceptions if he gets routes confused, so most likely he’ll be handing off a lot. Running is what the Raiders do best, but it gets you nowhere in Fantasy. Pick up Palmer, but don’t play him just yet, unless you’re QB-less.

Running Backs

If DMC is going to have a huge, monster week, this is it. Not only will he be able to run all over the Chief’s defense, his quarterback will require it. No matter if it’s Boller or Palmer, they’ll be demanding a lot of McFadden this week. He’ll generate RB points that you have only seen in your, well, fantasies. Michael Bush may also get his season high yardage in this game. DMC can do a lot, but he can’t do it on his own. Bush will be right there to back him up. You may even get a TD out of him. Rock is listed as questionable, so that’s an obvious no. and he’s primarily special teams player. Taiwan Jones may get some carries, since the run game will be so heavily used, but not enough to advise playing him.

Wide Receivers

The wide receivers you want to own in Oakland is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore at the present time. With the arrival of Palmer in Oakland, anyone of the young Raiders receivers may have sneaky value in the second half of the season. The rapport Palmer had with Terrell Owens was great chemistry and smart fantasy owners are invited to scout the return of Louis Murphy. Murphy is a do-it-all receiver, making his stamp in the possession game. Murphy and QB Bruce Gradkowski had great chemistry before injuries plagued this QB and WR combo. If you held on to Jacoby Ford since your fantasy draft day, it’s safe to let him go unless you are in deeper leagues. Ford is relegated to kick and punt returns to utilize his great speed, but is untrustworthy in fantasy purposes in terms of the kind of steady production he will provide you. Maybe wait one more week before cutting Ford loose to see if his role continues to expand as he gets healthy. Our money in terms of the rest of the season production lies in DHB, Moore, and possibly Ford and Murphy.

Tight Ends

While you’re scouting Murphy, Kevin Boss is a player that can make an impact during your fantasy playoffs as well. Once QB Palmer and Boss have a couple of games under their belt, Palmer may lean on Boss to move the chains and play possession ball that Head Coach Hue Jackson and the Raiders will want to employ. Boss scored a touchdown against the Browns on a fake punt thrown by Shane Lechler. Keep Boss in your “players to watch” list.

Kicker

Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Raiders are auditioning kickers due to injury to Sebastian Janikowski. If your fantasy team depth is enough to hold two kickers, I advise you hold onto Janikowski because his leg is truly special. However, fantasy wise, kickers are replaceable as their output is unpredictable. Monitor the situation with Janikowski closely. A great play this week would the Seahawk’s Steven Hauschka as they play the Browns this week or the Ravens’ Billy Cundiff as he put up 20 points in most leagues last week.

Defense/Special Teams

A lot of fantasy owners are clamoring for the Dallas defense this week and deservedly so due to their matchup vs. the hapless Rams. But if you lost out on the waiver wire add, consider the Raiders defense this week. They are playing the Chiefs who got blown out the first two weeks of the season and beat two below average teams in the Vikings and the Colts. There is no faith now that the Chiefs are better than their 2-3 records suggest. They are trotting out RB Jackie Battle, a former special teamer and Matt Cassel was throwing a ton in their last game against the Colts. Word out of their camp was that Head Coach Todd Haley would have gotten fired if they lost against the Colts. What makes the Raiders D/ST a great play is the ability of KR Ford to take it to the house as he did vs. the Browns for those valuable special teams points. This week the Raiders will put the hammer down on this AFC West rival and continue their undefeated streak in the division.

Raiders vs. Browns Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 8:33 AM  No Responses »
Oct 152011
 

Quarterback

Jason Campbell had a very average game last week, throwing for 190 yards. His games have been alternating pretty steadily from the 100s to 300s. If the trend continues this week, look for him to get somewhere in the 300s for yardage. He is averaging two touchdowns and is low risk when it comes to interceptions. Plan for at least one or each for Campbell when choosing which QB to play.

Running Back

Last week was Darren McFadden’s worst all season with only 51 yards and no touchdowns. In that particular game, the carries he did make were crucial, but that doesn’t always translate into fantasy points. This week he should get somewhere around 100 yards with at least one touchdown. Michael Bush also had his worst game last week with a just 9 yards. This will not happen again. The whole running game was a bit off last week, but this week the team is at home so look for Bush to get his standard 30 yards and maybe vulture a touchdown. Cartwright’s yards came on special teams so you can’t count on him for fantasy points. Taiwan Jones is in the same boat. He’ll likely get you no points.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey, one of Al Davis’ latest controversial and bold moves, came through last week in a big way vs. the Houston Texans. In fact, DHB has 11 catches for 214 yards in the past 2 weeks, making him a viable pick-up in fantasy circles.  Coach Davis has gotten a lot of flak for reaching for freakishly athletic talents with blazing speed. DHB was the first the first WR taken in the 2009 draft ahead of supposed can’t miss stud WR Michael Crabtree for this very reason. The reason pundits and analysts look down on DHB was his route-running and questionable ability to catch the ball. Coach Davis lives by the mantra you can teach ability, but you can’t teach speed and knew that all DHB needed was good coaching and the belief his team has in him to deliver. And in his third year in the league, Coach Davis’ vision for DHB is finally coming into fruition. The time has come for many fantasy owners to buy his stock and DHB is a strong WR3 start this week and viable WR2 option vs. the Browns who may be missing top cornerback Joe Haden.

Additionally, the Raiders are also looking for the return of Louis Murphy back into this offense. Fantasy-wise, this doesn’t bode well for Denarius Moore or Jacoby Ford. After a fast start, Moore put up a zero last week vs. the Texans despite his high snap count and targets. After DHB, Moore makes for a strong sneaky flex start if you need his services. This Hue Jackson-led offense is looking Moore’s way and is counting on his big play ability to take the pressure off Darren McFadden. Look for Ford to return kicks and be a viable threat in that front.

Tight End

Kevin Boss was not productive last week vs. the Texans in an emotional game. Look for Boss’ role in this offense to fluctuate, making him just a fantasy prospect at this point. The tight-end position is deep this year and you can look elsewhere. Looking across the sidelines, Ben Watson is a solid plug and play candidate for fantasy as he is getting a ton of work with Colt McCoy actively looking towards the tight ends this year.

Kicker

Seabass – Nothing to see here. He’s a weapon from this team, making the Raiders that much better in close games knowing that Janikowski tied a league long 63 yard field goal earlier this year.  I would suggest even keeping him on your roster during the Raiders’ bye week in Week 8 and trying to find a kicker without dropping him.

Defense/Special Teams

Savvy fantasy players will mostly play defenses by matchups. If you employ this strategy, the Raiders D/ST is a viable option this week vs. the Browns. Nothing about this offense scares you as the team is looking for its identity after its bye. Coach Pat Shurmur has said that he is going back to feeding Peyton Hillis the ball. While he is a bruiser, the Browns is not likely to put up 30 or 40 points this week. The Raiders’ special teams also have upside with Jacoby Ford returning kicks for potential scores.

Raiders Displayed Strong ‘Will To Win’

 Posted by at 2:20 PM  No Responses »
Oct 112011
 

The Raiders should have been defeated by the Houston Texans on Sunday.

The offense came out extremely flat and did not get a first down until the 2nd quarter and only had four at halftime. For most of the game the Raiders were embarrassing on offense.

Darren McFadden, the NFL leading rusher, had only 12 yards at halftime and only 51 for the game which is well below his average. Jason Campbell on multiple occasions missed open receivers and made early mistakes. Neither Kevin Boss, Michael Bush or Denarius Moore caught a pass.

The Raiders squandered good field position and failed to capitalize on a block punt instead settling for three Janikowski field goals longer than 50 yards. The offensive line gave up three sacks and countless quarterback hurries. It appeared as if the Raiders offensive line was going to literally fall apart.

Then, all of a sudden, things changed. Penalty flags started to get picked up and the defensive line started to deflect passes. Lamarr Houston got an interception on one tipped pass and the defense began stopping the run, blitzing and dominating the Texans offense. The offensive line came back together and Rock Cartwright ran for 35 yards on a fake punt. McFadden picked up few first downs, Chaz Shilens reappeared and Darrius Heyward-Bey matured.

In a game where the Raiders let Arian Foster amass 184 yards from scrimmage, the Raiders found a way to win. In a game where the Raiders offensive play calling was questionable and offensive production inconsistent, the Raiders kept on fighting. In a game where the Raider failed to execute the four-minute drill and gave Matt Schaub one last chance, Michael Huff, and the Raiders defense held on. In a game where the Raiders were out gained by nearly 200 yards, the will to win never dissipated.

The Raiders were nowhere near their best but somehow, someway they returned to Oakland victorious. As it has been since the 1962, winning, is the only thing that really matters in Oakland. It was not pretty but the Raiders persevered and found a way to win this one for Al Davis. As Al would say, “Just Win, Baby.”

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