Jul 072011
 

With the end of the lockout in view and free agency on the horizon it is time to review what the Raiders need to do once the NFL opens for business. We start with what the Raiders need to do with their own free agents.

The biggest free agent on the market may be Nnamdi Asomugha. While it is unlikely the Raiders can afford to keep Asomugha, it’s not totally impossible.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Nnamdi Asomugha: <20%

The Raiders face the real possiblity of losing two pieces of their defensive secondary, with Michael Huff poised to also become a free agent. Raiders will wait and see what the market is, but chances are a safety needy team like the Jaguars will bite hard.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Michael Huff: <20%

Charlie Frye as the thrid quarterback. It’s a thankless position and job. Fans would rather have a developmental player, but the coaches like Frye and he will get a chance to be the third quarterback.

Chances Raiders re-sign Charlie Frye: >85%

The Raiders drafted Richard Gordon and brought in a host of other lineman, but who can replace Khalif Barnes as the sixth lineman? He likely sticks.

Chances Khalif Barnes is re-signed: >90%

Sam Williams. Vet minimum. 100%

Robert Gallery, Bruce Gradkowski, Thomas Howard, Johnnie Lee Higgins 0%.

What about Zach Miller? He has been the Raiders most productive receiver for the past three seasons. The Raiders will pay whatever is necessary to retain Miller, but he will have other options.

Zach attack back: >75%

Al Davis and Hue Jackson have hinted that they should have installed Mario Henderson at right tackle earlier. Does that mean he will be back? Probably.

Super? Mario 2: >75%

The drafting of Joseph Barksdale and Henderson’s performance late in the year leaves Langston Walker twisting in the wind, if that’s possible at 350 pounds. He’s a good run blocker and the Raiders have a need for lineman.

Langston Walker Part Trois: <80%

Ricky Brown and Jarvis Moss: >90%

Samson Satele was given a tender, so he may stick, but my gut says he’s let go, backup centers are a dime a dozen. 5%

Everyone’s favorite fullback, Marcel Reece is restricted free agent. 100%

Michael Bush, restricted free agent, given first and third-round tender. 100%

Long Snapper Jon Condo: 100%

May 072011
 

Panthers wide receiver Steve Smith wants out of Carolina. He reportedly wants a trade to the Chargers, Raiders or Ravens. Smith is more likely to be released and have his choice of teams.

If that becomes the case, San Diego is a more logical fit for Smith. The Chargers are reportedly monitoring the situation much as they did with Bob Sanders, who ultimately signed as a free agent.

Refreshing as it is to hear that a player wants to play for the silver and black again, unless Al Davis thinks Steve Smith is worth something in trade, he’ll have better opportunities elsewhere.

Could the Raiders have a roster spot for the 5-foot-9, 180-pound receiver with 52 career touchdown receptions?

Back in March, Rick Drummond did a great review of the Raiders receivers that gives some perspective and insight.

Of course, the Raiders drafted Denarius Moore also, so one has to wonder what role Steve Smith might play on a team chalked full of young receivers.

Darrius Heyward-Bey is likely to get one more season to prove himself as a legit threat, but a starting job will not handed to him this season. Coaches and players sing his praises as a breakout candidate. It’s either wishful thinking or legit observation, we will know soon enough.

Steve Smith broke out in his third full season after a solid second season. The Raiders are hoping the third-year receiver standard holds true for Heyward-Bey.

Jacoby Ford is too electric to keep off the field and he will get his snaps. In many ways Ford could be compared to a young Steve Smith. Does it make sense to have two smaller receivers on the roster, both of which can lineup outside? Steve Smith is going to expect to start, and the Raiders will have to decide if they are able to provide him that opportunity.

Don’t forget about Chaz Schilens, Louis Murphy and the rookie Moore. Murphy is the most consistently productive receiver on the team. Schilens fights his own health for snaps and the rookie wild card Moore may demand playing time. Where does that leave Steve Smith?

Smith has been a productive receiver, but he is 31 and his production has dipped in recent years. He’s been fairly durable despite missing 15 games in 2004. He’s known as a bit tough to handle, but Hue Jackson is no stranger to “personalities” at wide receiver.

If Smith becomes a Raider, the team has either lost confidence in Heyward-Bey’s ability to develop and/or they have deep concerns about Schilens’ ability to stay healthy.

The Raiders could use another quality receiving option like Smith, but bringing him in would retard the message the team has sent.

Of course, the Raiders are never too worried about the messages they send and it’s always a good idea to bring in a high upside veteran when you can do so cheaply.

The big question, should the Raiders bring in Smith, who would be the odd man out?

Ford will play and it would be tough to imagine the team giving up on Heyward-Bey this early. That leaves Murphy and Schilens. If healthy, can’t imagine Schilens is the odd man either, but he could certainly be injured again. That leaves Murphy, the most consistently productive receiver on the team over the past two seasons.

It’s also more likely Murphy makes the third-year leap than Heyward-Bey at this point.

To bring in Smith would be for the Raiders to abandon a receiver and relegate him to the fifth slot. Last year, the Raiders fifth receiver was Nick Miller or Johnnie Lee Higgins, who rarely saw the field and even more rarely caught a pass.

Maybe Hue Jackson can find enough packages to spread the snaps around evenly with a receiver like Smith in the fold. It would be a high-risk move, by an organization that is no stranger to the high-risk move.

 

May 022011
 

The Raiders completed day three of the 2011 NFL draft by selecting Chimdi Chekwa, Taiwan Jones, Denarius Moore, Richard Gordon and David Ausberry to add to the selections of Stefen Wisniewski, Demarcus Van Dyke and Joseph Barksdale yesterday.

With the selections on day three, the Raiders finished plugging at least three team needs and added depth a wide receiver. Al Davis doesn’t hide his affection for speed and in this, his 39th year as managing general partner, he again selected multiple players who ran the 40-yard-dash in under 4.4 seconds.

Now that the draft is complete and since the NFL is enduring a lockout, we have time to properly analyze the Raiders draft picks. Who are these players and what are their strengths and weaknesses? How do they fit on the team in 2011?

Stefen Wisniewski is the safest pick the Raiders could have made in the second round. Most if not all the top-tier talent had been selected and he’ll be an instant starter at center and should play for a decade. The fans will love this one also, because Stefen is the nephew of former Raiders all-pro guard guard and current assistant offensive line coach Steve Wisniewski.

Strengths: Smart, technically sound, knows how to use his hands and plays with a good base most of the time. Natural bender, bends at the knees. Agile and has good footwork. Fires off the snap quickly. Whistle-to-whistle player that is successful because he never gives up on a play.

Weaknesses: Average overall strength and may struggle with big nose tackles. Sometimes overextends and gets off-balance. Frame maxed out, can’t carry much more weight.

Overall: Wisniewski is a very high floor player that doesn’t need a lot of time to develop to help the Raiders. He’s durable and the Raiders have been looking for a center since Barrett Robins hailed a cab to Tijuana just before Super Bowl XXXVII. He’s a natural leader and should be an instant starter and upgrade over Samson Satele.

Scouting Reports:

National Football Post

NFLDRAFTSCOUT

NFL.com

NFLDraftCountdown

Videos:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7YaslZQO3ew

 

The simple fact that Al Davis drafted Demarcus Van Dyke should not define the Raiders 2011 draft class. He’s one player and he does have potential.

Al Davis drafted Van Dyke in the third round, which is why analysts will not like the selection. The experts believed Van Dyke was a fifth or sixth-round prospect and very much a project. He’s a thinly-built burner and needs work on his technique to make use of his speed.

Thankfully, the Raiders have Kevin Ross, Rod Woodson and Willie Brown as coaches and mentors for the young corner project.

Strengths: Solid ball skills, length and speed,  fluid hips, reads and reacts to what he sees quickly.

Weaknesses: Needs help with his footwork to maintain his speed when he turns and runs, needs to add ten pounds to his frame, will not be a great jammer without adding bulk and strength.

Overall: He has the physical skills to be a good corner in the NFL, but he’ll have to add bulk and work on his footwork. He will contribute on special teams and his best chance to get on the field on defense is probably in the dime or nickel package. He’s a faster version of Walter McFadden.

Scouting Reports:

CBS Sports – Gil Brandt

NFL.com

National Football Post

Videos:

 

The Raiders needed help on the offensive line and they chose Joseph Barksdale over other quality options on the board. He’s an athlete that hasn’t played consistently well. He became an offensive lineman in college after being recruited as a defensive tackle. He was a five star recruit out of high school and some people believed he was the next Haloti Ngata.  He projects to right tackle, but may have a home at guard as well.

Strengths: Athletic and strong. Can slide and move his feet. Long arms. Can be nasty is a solid run blocker. Agile for a man his size and carries his weight well.

Weaknesses: Bends at the waist too much and can get himself caught out of position. Inconsistent. Not an elite athlete, probably can’t play left tackle in the pros.

Overall: The Raiders see a ton of potential in Barksdale and if he can become more consistent and focus on his craft he has a very good chance to start at right tackle for the Raiders as a rookie. Having Steve Wisniewski and his nephew around could help him as he’s only been playing offensive line for four years. He could be a gem of a right tackle in time.

Scouting Reports:

CBS Sports

National Football Post

NFL.com

Video:

 

 

Continue reading »

Mar 082011
 

By Rick Drummond, Profootballfocus.com (on twitter: @PFF_Rick)

Remember 2003? That was the last time we found ourselves looking out to either side of Raider formations to see Tim Brown and Jerry Rice taking their positions, surveying coverage, itching to shred that zone or shake that man. Washing over you was a feeling you felt so many times during the seasons leading to that one – the sense that no matter who they were facing, our guys just couldn’t be covered. The Raider passing attack in those days was just that, an attack. A well-planned, well-executed, diverse, and determined attack. 2003, however, was when the wheels came off.

Since then, our gazes out to the edge have been greeted by visions of Javon Walker, Ashley Lelie, Jerry Porter, Ronald Curry, Randy Moss, Doug Gabriel, almost Drew Carter … and the current crop.

Of course, there were hopeful moments along the way (really, there were) and we should force upon ourselves more realistic expectations than ever again fielding a pair of hall of famers, but regardless, the difference between that time and the years since has been painful.

With the garbage finally cleared away and a few years put into rebuilding this unit through the draft, the Raiders can now say that they have a young and speedy stable assembled. What they’re unable to say is they have a clear number one … or even that they are only missing a number one. Today’s group does have talent and, yes, they’ve been thrilling at times, but, as a whole, they seem fragile. Not fragile in the injury-waiting-to-happen sense (outside of Schilens of course), but rather in the there-is-no-foundation-here sense.

All six current raider receivers have entered the league in the last four years – four of them in the last two – so it’s understandable that they would be lacking a foothold in the imaginations of Raider fans. They’ve established no consistently positive identity. Louis Murphy can point to theSan Diego and Pittsburgh games in 2009. Jacoby Ford had a handful of outings in 2010 to shout about. Darrius Heyward-Bey has had two games in his 25 starts where he produced like a legit threat. All scattered flashes.

There are, of course, contributing factors to their nearly impact-less existence that must be noted … questionable quarterback play, coaching and system changes, playing from behind quite often, etc. But, given that, these young professionals must develop and must do so rapidly if they are the ones to end the Raider receiver drought.

The 2010 Raiders receivers:

Nick Miller
Experience: 2 seasons
Signed through: Resigned for 2011. (Was an exclusive rights free agent)
2010 receiving: 0 starts, 52 snaps (29 run plays / 23 pass plays), 4 targets / 3 receptions, 40 yards / 13.3 YPR, 3 yards after catch / 1.0 avg YAC, 0 touchdowns, 1 drop
2010 rushing: none
2010 returning: 35 punt returns, 7.3 yards per return, 0 touchdowns; 2 kickoff returns, 18.5 yards per return, 0 touchdowns
PFF grades: overall -0.5, receiving -0.3
The staff saw something in Miller in 2009, opting to keep him around despite a preseason injury. He made the cut again in 2010 and eventually got some game action as a receiver (52 snaps in a 4-game, mid-season stretch.) He was also given an opportunity to compete for the punt returner spot, a job he held for nine weeks.
Miller is easy to root for – an effort guy, small in stature, big in heart – but he didn’t show enough as a returner to clearly lock down the role and, though gutsy as a receiver, he’ll have a tough time climbing the ranks with a better version of him (Ford) already many steps ahead.
Johnnie Lee Higgins
Experience: 4 seasons
Signed through: FREE AGENT in 2011
2010 receiving: 1 start, 375 snaps (122 run plays / 253 pass plays), 25 targets / 10 receptions, 103 yards / 10.3 YPR, 21 yards after catch / 2.1 avg YAC, 0 touchdowns, 1 drop
2010 rushing: none
2010 returning: 17 punt returns, 7.2 yards per return, 0 touchdowns
PFF grades: overall -6.4, receiving -6.6
Higgins’ last three seasons as a receiver have been a gradual slide down from a starting point that wasn’t very high to begin with. Never the threat the Raiders hoped he would be, the ‘old man’ of this group has seen the newer, shinier toys pass him by. With just 10 catches in 2010 and only 25 targets in 253 passing plays, he wasn’t a viable contributor to the offense.
The regression also hit his return game. After breaking out in 2008 with 3 punt return touchdowns and a 13.5 yards per return average, he has slipped to just six yards per return in the two seasons since. He lost kickoff return duties in 2008 and lost punt returns this season.
Higgins just doesn’t bring anything to the table now and his roster spot will likely be handed to a new Raider for 2011.
Chaz Schillens
Experience: 3 seasons
Signed through: 2011
2010 receiving: 0 starts, 81 snaps (38 run plays / 43 pass plays), 9 targets / 5 receptions, 40 yards / 8.0 YPR, 14 yards after catch / 2.8 avg YAC, 1 touchdown, 0 drops
2010 rushing: none
PFF grades: overall +1.1, receiving +0.6
There’s no questioning that Schilens, the 6’ 4” 210 pound, former seventh round pick offers a unique and much-needed build to this unit. His comparatively large frame would provide balance, helping to diversify game plan options – if he were able to take the field regularly. Unfortunately for him and for the Raiders, he has only seen significant time in 10 games over the past two seasons.
In those 10 games, he has caught 60% of the balls thrown his way – a rate well ahead of the rest of the group. He can work under and across, gain position, and catch the ball. All great traits, but all undermined by his injury history.
His 2011 contract year will be big. Another injury and he’s surely done in Oakland, but even a healthy season that lacks possession-receiver-type productivity could get him sent out.
Darrius Heyward-Bey
Experience: 2 seasons
Signed through: 2013
2010 receiving: 12 starts, 761 snaps (342 run plays / 419 pass plays), 60 targets / 26 receptions, 366 yards / 14.1 YPR, 106 yards after catch / 4.1 avg YAC, 1 touchdown, 7 drops
2010 rushing: 4 carries, 48 yards
PFF grades: overall -13.7, receiving -12.0
Training camp reports singing Heyward-Bey’s praises were pumped out of Napa almost daily. He had turned the corner, put in the extra time, rededicated himself – he was the last guy on the field every day working on tightening up his routes and softening his hands. He was primed to surprise. Turns out, DHB’s draft slot is still the only surprise he’s had for Raider fans.
Much noise was made surrounding the decision to select him so high in the 2009 draft and more followed when, despite starting 11 games as a rookie, he managed only nine receptions. Critics were quick to slam and few resisted the word “bust.” In 2010, he did very little to change their minds. He was thrown at 22 more times and caught 17 more balls, but climbing up to a total of 26 catches just isn’t impressive.
His speed was what attracted the Raiders to him; no doubt envisioning a blur racing past the deepest defenders, slowing only as he cruised through the endzone, ball in hand, readying for his regular leaps into the Black Hole. The reality is, in two seasons, there have been 33 attempts to get him the ball downfield (throws of over 20 yards) and those efforts have netted four catches, just one of which went the distance. 
Particularly damaging to his pre-season “improved hands, improved work ethic, improved want-to” image was what became evident on many of his deep ball chances – his inability to win battles for the ball; the perfect test of those claims.
The third year is often thought of as especially telling for receivers. Heyward-Bey’s third season is coming up and, though Mr. Davis still has faith, half of the Raider nation has moved on from any hope of a DHB turnaround … and most of the others are wavering.
Louis Murphy
Experience: 2 seasons
Signed through: 2012
2010 receiving: 9 starts, 737 snaps (283 run plays / 454 pass plays), 74 targets / 41 receptions, 609 yards / 14.9 YPR, 227 yards after catch / 5.5 avg YAC, 2 touchdowns, 3 drops
2010 rushing: 1 carry, 43 yards
PFF grades: overall -7.8, receiving -6.1
Murphy got to ride in the shadows for a while. Selected in the same draft as Heyward-Bey, but three rounds later, he didn’t face the same scrutiny. Like DHB, Murphy was made an instant starter but, unlike DHB, he made an impact out of the gate: a pair of touchdowns in the 2009 Monday Night opener in Oakland (yes, two touchdowns, one was reversed on the score sheet, but not in my head.)
The remainder of Murphy’s 2009 was uneventful – save for his heroics in Pittsburgh – but he entered 2010 as the smart money choice to finish as the top Raider receiver, and, by the numbers, he did. However, with 15 of his 41 catches coming in the first three weeks, he averaged just 2.3 catches after and lost his grip on the top billing when Ford emerged. Still, 40+ catches and over 600 yards is a respectable season.
Murphy displays passion, speed, and the ability to execute from a variety of positions (running routes from the slot half as often as from the outside in 2010.) He has lapses and sloppy moments, but as with the rest, he’s young and can make fixes. There is an NFL receiver here, and if everything works out, he could combine with Ford to give the Raiders two-thirds of a dangerous trio. Finding a legit number one to top it off is another question, but at this point, any positives need to be recognized.

Jacoby Ford

Experience: 1 season
Signed through: 2013
2010 receiving: 9 starts, 577 snaps (250 run plays / 327 pass plays), 50 targets / 25 receptions, 470 yards / 18.8 YPR, 125 yards after catch / 5.0 avg YAC, 2 touchdowns, 5 drops
2010 rushing: 10 carries, 155 yards, 2 touchdowns
2010 returning: 53 kickoff returns, 24.2 yards per return, 3 touchdowns
PFF grades: overall -3.6, receiving -2.4

Could this be him? The next Cliff Branch? Al Davis has been searching for this player – the downfield playmaker with blazing speed and go-get-the-ball instincts – for years. Being that this was just his rookie season, expectations like that are probably unfair to throw at Jacoby Ford, but judging by the humble maturity he has shown to date, perhaps he can handle it.

After getting only 41 snaps through his first six weeks in the Silver and Black, Ford was thrust into extended action in Week 7. He started every game after that, earning an average of 53 snaps. His display in the season-defining home win over Kansas City demanded attention – a 94-yard kickoff return TD to open the second half, a body-twisting adjustment to haul in an underthrown long ball, an eye-popping effort to steal away a sure interception in the final minute, and his signature catch of the season, sprinting past Brandon Flowers to secure a 47-yard heave that set-up the game winning, overtime field goal.

Standing only 5’ 9”, Ford obviously isn’t going to cure the Raiders’ need for a big-bodied, possession receiver capable of defeating tight underneath coverage, but that’s not why he’s here. He’s a Raider because he can push the top of the defense and maneuver his way to the big play. All that remains for his full transformation to Raider legend reincarnate is a “Speed Kills” sign hanging in the end zone and a jersey number inversion to #21 … which, unfortunately, may be available soon.

Oct 282010
 

Remember Brian Schneider? I bet most of the Raider Nation does, because Schneider coached the Raiders special teams in 2007 and 2008.

Schneider was considered by many to be a great special teams coordinator for the Raiders. What was so special about Schneider’s special teams units? Was it kick coverage or return yardage? Is John Fassel worse? He’s certainly hasn’t received the praise like Schneider did during his time with the Raiders.

Both punting and kicking seem to be more dependent on the kicker and punter. Obviously, the Raiders have two of the best. One thing you can get from punting and kicking is blocks and return touchdowns which is more indicative of coverage and coaching.

In 2007, Brian Schneider’s first season as a coach for the Raiders, the return units were near the bottom in return yardage and had no return touchdowns. The Raiders allowed punt return touchdowns, but were middle of the pack in regards to kick coverage.

Schneider’s fortunes turned in 2008, with five return touchdowns. Johnnie Lee Higgins was the punt returner in both 2007 and 2008, but really thrived in that role in the 2008. Justin Miller was the kick returner who returned two kicks for touchdowns. Was it Schneider’s coaching, Higgin’s and Miller’s return skills or a total fluke?

The kick coverage regressed to near the bottom of the league in 2008 under Schneider, a noted decline from the year before.

In 2009, the special teams regressed significantly. Johnnie Lee Higgins was crushed by Eric Weddle and has yet to recover. Perhaps he just isn’t very good at punt returns? He averaged the same yards per return in 2007 under Schneider as he did in 2009 under Fassel (5.2).

The return man for the Raiders was rotating before settling on the very slow fullback Gary Russell in 2009. Was this Fassel’s idea or were the Raiders simply out of viable options to field the kicks? Obviously the return game wasn’t working and the Raiders came into 2009 looking for a more dynamic return man to complement the solid coverage teams.

To add insult to the special teams, the kick coverage unit was the worst in the league in 2009, but appears to have bounced back in 2010, despite early indications of struggle.

That brings us to the current year. The Raiders started with Yamon Figurs as the kick returner but Jacoby Ford has taken over those duties. Nick Miller has taken over for Higgins and done a great job so far. The Seahawks awesome kick return unit is largely due to the additions of Leon Washington and Golden Tate.

Washington was a great return man until the Jets used him more as a running back last season and he broke his leg. Not only does he have six career return touchdowns, but he has at least one longer than 90 yards in each of his three seasons as the primary kick returner. Washington has a career average of 26.6 yards per kick return. Tate is averaging 11.8 yards per punt return this season.

Schneider’s units are struggling in punt coverage and the Seahawks have already given up a punt return touchdown. However, the kick return coverage team ranks in the top 10 in the NFL.

Schneider seems to have a weakness, that being his punt coverage units. His return units and kick coverage unit will likely again be strong. Schneider has had a great set of returners, particularly Leon Washington.

Fassel has had to do more with less since taking over and his special teams units appear to be bouncing back from a horrible season.

This could be the game Nick Miller breaks loose on another long return, but don’t expect too much from Jacoby Ford returning kicks. The Raiders will have to defend against the prolific Seahawks return men, who have had a major impact in three of the four Seahawks victories.

Below are the raw special teams statistics from 2007 to present.

2007: Brian Schneider
21.6 yards per kick return (25), 0 Touchdowns
5.5 yards per punt return (31), 0 Touchdowns
49.1 Average Punt (1)
41.1 Net Avg (1)
2 allowed punt return Touchdowns (32)
23 of 32, 72% Field Goals (29), 1 Blocked, 1 miss 30-39, 3 missed 40-49, 5 misses 50+
22.4 avg yards allowed per kick return (14)

2008: Brian Schneider
22.8 yards per kick return (17), 2 Touchdowns
13.0 yards per punt return (2), 3 Touchdowns
48.8 Average Punt (2)
41.2 Net Avg (1)
24 of 30, 80% Field Goals (24), 2 Misses 40-49, 4 misses 50+
1 Blocked PAT
24.4 avg yards allowed per kick return (26)

2009: John Fassel
18.2 yards per kick return (32), 0 Touchdowns
4.9 yards per punt return (29), 0 Touchdowns
51.1 Average Punt (1)
43.9 Net Avg (1)
20 of 23, 90% field goals (6), 1 miss 40-49, 2 misses 50+
25.7 avg yards allowed per kick return (32)

2010: John Fassel
20.1 yards per kick return (27), 0 Touchdowns
9.0 yards per punt return (19), 0 Touchdowns
49.0 Punt Average (1)
44.1 Net Average (1)
15 for 20, 70% field goals, 1 miss 30-39, 2 misses 40-49, 2 misses 50+
25.4 avg yards allowed per kick return (23)

2010 Seattle Seahawks: Brian Schneider
32.2 yards per kick return (1), 2 Touchdowns
9.9 yards per punt return (14), 0 Touchdowns
42.8 Punt Average (25)
36.3 Net Avg (23)
1 allowed punt return touchdown (32)
9 of 9, 100% Field Goals (1), only one attempt longer than 40 yards (51 yards).
22.1 avg yards allowed per kick return (10)