Raiders’ Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 2:21 PM  1 Response »
Nov 182011
 

Quarterback

Carson Palmer is a name that is generating a lot of buzz this week, partly because of his solid stat line in Week 10 (299 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT). It also has to do with the fact that a lot of quarterbacks are injured in fantasy land (Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Michael Vick). Facing off against a depleted Vikings secondary this week, Palmer is a recommended start this week. The Vikings placed cornerback Antoine Winfield in injured reserve and will be counting on Benny Sapp. Unfortunately for Sapp, he will most likely going up against one of the hottest receivers in the NFL in Denarius Moore. With a plethora of options in the passing game, fantasy owners should be able to count on Palmer against a weak Vikings’ secondary this week.

Running Backs

Michael Bush has been a force in the running game, scoring double-digit fantasy games in three straight games. While Darren McFadden has been seen out of his protective walking boot, he has been ruled out for week 11. Fantasy owners can look forward to a full load of work for Bush. Clearly, Bush is running with authority and is making a case to be a full-time starter for the Silver and Black next year or elsewhere. Take advantage of his production while you can. Taiwan Jones is the change-of-pace back, but it’s very hard to trust him. He has shown spurts of breakaway ability, but his chances are limited. Additionally, Jones is struggling in pass-protection, making him an even riskier play as the coaches might want to employ Bush on all three downs.

Wide Receivers

Denarius Moore lit it up last week vs. the Chargers to the tune of 5 receptions for 123 yards and two TDs.  Moore is the best fantasy option when it comes to the Raiders’ wide receiving corps in terms of being the safest option as well as the one possessing the most upside. Consider him a WR2 play this week with the upside of a WR1. Held without a catch for the past two games, Darrius Heyward-Bey is a droppable candidate this late into the season. Sure he may be able to turn things around, but it’s a risky proposition. Acquire depth elsewhere as you make the push towards fantasy playoffs. The same can be said about Jacoby Ford who is battling an injury.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss showed signs of life last week catching two passes for 32 yards. He could develop into a nice option for CP3, but fantasy players should take a wait and see approach when it comes to Boss and the other Raiders’ tight ends. The Raiders just haven’t used the tight end as a weapon in the passing game.

Kicker

Fantasy owners who own Sebastian Janikowski have been frustrated as of late due to his injury. According to Contra Costa Times, Janikowski did not practice Thursday and Hue Jackson called him 97.2% healthy. Roll the dice with Janikowski or look into the availability of Rob Bironas of the Titans. When his team is playing well and Chris Johnson is running well  it gives him both the opportunity for PATs and field goals.

Defense/Special Teams

Don’t be tempted to play the Raiders’ defense or special teams this week even if they are facing the Vikings. The Vikings have played their opponents tough (disregard their last game vs. Packers game as it was a blowout). The Raiders’ defensive unit has been tough to rely on, giving fantasy owners negative points in three games this year. Also, the loss of Ford in the return game makes them a risky start as the Vikings have an emerging offense led by the poise of Christian Ponder and the dangerous Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.

Week 10 Preview: Short Week, Short Handed

 Posted by at 3:58 PM  6 Responses »
Nov 102011
 

Wow.  That was ugly.  The Raiders have played themselves into a corner after dropping two straight divisional games to less talented football teams.  After the “bully” had his nose broken on Sunday, the Raiders will have to heal quickly because one of the biggest games of the season comes on only three days rest.

The Raiders gave up 300 rushing yards to the Denver Broncos.  That’s not a typo.  A college-style option offense torched the Oakland defense en route to a 34-21 upset win on Sunday.  The Raiders were undisciplined in every aspect of the game.  They had 15 penalties for 130 yards.  Players didn’t stay true to their assignments, and were caught out of position, with Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee ripping them for huge gains.  Linebackers were leaving gaps uncovered, defensive ends got burned bending down the line and lost contain, and the punt coverage team took bad angles in pursuit.

Michael Bush had a nice game in the starting role, 19 carries for 96 yards and 33 yards receiving.  Jacoby Ford had a big game and Marcel Reece was welcomed back to the mix with a beautiful laser thrown by Carson Palmer, which Reece caught in traffic for a 40 yard score.  Carson threw 3 interceptions but actually had a decent game.  His arm strength looks to be there and made some really impressive throws.  His decision-making will have to improve, as well as his handle on the offense, but it was definitely a step in the right direction.

The Raiders face another rival Thursday night in San Diego.  We know about Phillip Rivers, we know about Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates, we know Norv Turner.  There shouldn’t be any surprises.  The Raiders are limping into this game.  No Darren McFadden, no Demarcus Van Dyke and no Chris Johnson.  Eight other starters are questionable with injuries.

The Raiders biggest challenge comes at a time when they are playing their worst football.  A win could spark a run, unifying the team and pushing them into the second half of the season with momentum.  A loss, would be their third in a row and threaten this team’s once promising 2011 campaign.

OFFENSE

We’ll see another 20-25 carries from Michael Bush with McFadden out.  Bush is a good runner, always gains positive yards, and enjoys the pressure of stepping into the starting role.  However, he doesn’t have big home-run hitting capability like McFadden.  Hue Jackson will have to work to keep the Raiders in manageable third down situations which require an effective ground game.

You can’t turn the ball over against this team.  It’s going to be hard enough to stop this offense without giving them extra possessions.  Carson Palmer needs to make smart decisions, spread the ball around, and not zero in on his targets.  He was telegraphing a lot of his passes last week and he needs to freeze the safety longer to open up routes for his receivers and find holes in the Charger zone.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Carson Palmer vs. Eric Weddle

In six quarters of play, Palmer has 3 touchdowns and 6 interceptions. Having a 1-2 touchdown interception ratio will not win many games. Weddle has 5 of San Diego’s 8 interceptions. If Palmer is to lead Oakland to its first victory in nearly a month, he needs to minimize his turnovers.

Micheal Bush vs. Donald Butler & Takeo Spikes

Bush is a high quality running back, who if given more opportunities could easily reach the 1,000 yard marker. Butler and Spikes anchor the Charger defense. They have combined for over 100 tackles this season. Compare that to McClain and Wimbley, who have combined total of 73.

X- FACTOR

Kevin Boss

Carson Palmer needs to find his talented tight end in this game.  The Chargers have only allowed one 100 yard receiver this year, but they have given up five touchdowns to tight ends in eight games.  Boss, who was really only used on special teams against Denver, does a wonderful job finding spots in the zone and can be a real asset in the redzone if Jackson gets him on the field.

 

DEFENSE

Ryan Matthews is healthy, and he’ll split carries with Mike Tolbert.  The Raiders have the talent on that side of the ball to be a stout defense against the run.  The problem has never been between the lines, but between the ears.  The Raiders need to play smart, disciplined, gap control defense. After studying the Denver game, Norv Turner will try to run the ball down Chuck Bresnahan’s esophagus to take pressure off Rivers.  If the Raiders are unable to stop the run, it could be a long afternoon for this unit.

Looks like Malcolm Flloyd will miss Sunday’s game.  The Raiders will start cornerback Lito Shepphard because of injuries to the secondary.  Oakland generally doesn’t match up cornerbacks with specific wide receivers, but if there was a time to do it, this is the game.  Routt needs to handle Vincent Jackson, who has had a relatively disappointing year until he exploded for 150 yards and 3 touchdowns Sunday against Green Bay.

The Raiders don’t really have a player to matchup with Antonio Gates.  Expect Mike Mitchell to draw some one-on-one coverage with Gates or the freshly signed Jerome Boyd.  The Raiders will try to blitz Rivers, but if they don’t get it to him, it’s going to make Rivers job far too easy.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH:

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Marcus McNeil

Wimbley is coming off his worse game of the season, as he missed an open sack on Tebow and lost outside containment on a number of runs. McNeil, is still San Diego’s franchise left tackle, but is not having his best year. Wimbley has been consistently applying pressure all season. To live up to his big contract, Wimbley needs to start turning pressures into sacks.

Aaron Curry vs. Mike Tolbert & Ryan Matthews

With McClain’s injury, Curry is now the Raiders defensive quarterback. Much of the 299 rushing yards yielded last week can be attributed to Curry’s poor play and leadership. San Diego’s running backs account for 1,387 total yards from scrimmage, with almost half those coming in the passing game.

X Factor

Chuck Bresnahan

The Raiders heavily criticized Defensive Coordinator is probably coaching for his job tomorrow night.  He knows his unit is banged up and doesn’t have the talent in the secondary to compete with Rivers’ weapons.  He is going to dial-up the blitz early and often.  He knows he needs to get Rivers on his back.  Defensive line stunts, corner blitzes, it’s all going to be in the game plan Thursday night.  Much of this team’s success will rely on stopping the run.  Chuck needs to make sure his guys are in the right position and are educated on the Chargers running game.  Bresnahan is familiar with the Chargers offense, so look for him to put his best players in positions to make big plays.

Predictions

Nick’s Pick

As much as I would like to think this is the game where the Raiders come together and put together an inspiring and motivational win to spark the rest of the season, I just don’t see it happening with the 22 guys they are marching out there.  Palmer will continue to improve, but Rivers will finally get back on track as the Chargers second half rise begins.

Raiders 23, Chargers 31,

Brandon’s Pick

After two embarrassing AFC West loses in Oakland, the spotlight is on Hue Jackson to find balance and right the ship. The Raiders woes will continue, and this time in primetime.

Raiders 17, Chargers 24

Raiders’ Week 10 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 3:47 PM  No Responses »
Nov 102011
 

Quarterback

There’s absolutely no way you should play Carson Palmer this week. He’s averaging 3 INTs a week and his yardage certainly isn’t making up for that. He threw for 3 touchdowns last week, but the INTs nearly balance out the point gain. The only reason he should start on your Fantasy roster is if it’s 10 minutes before kickoff, you have no backup and your usual starter is on a bye. Otherwise, no Palmer for you!

Running Backs

From all appearances, DMC will be out again this week. If you didn’t pick up Bush or Jones, then you didn’t miss too much. Bush had an impressive showing in comparison to previous weeks. He had 96 yards and his first touchdown of the season. That being said, the Chargers are fairly tough against the run, but Bush is going to have the majority of work in this game. Jones, however will get a few touches, but it most likely won’t translate into fantasy points. Consider Bush a strong RB2 this week after back-to-back strong showings.

Wide Receivers

What in Al Davis’ name happened to Darrius Heyward-Bey? DHB was fifth in the depth chart vs. the Broncos and by all accounts we can only assume that it was for disciplinary reasons. Or worse, the other two WRs, Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore, caught on to the scheme faster than DHB during practice. In either case, the Oakland WR corps is bound to be a jumbled mess. Moore saw the most targets with 12, while Ford did the most with his targets (6) for 105 yards and a touchdown. Ford made for a popular waiver-wire add this week and deservedly so. He is an explosive playmaker and shows great rapport with CP3. Consider Ford a strong flex option this week and it’s wise to use the wait-and-see approach with the other pass catchers this late in the fantasy season.

Tight End

Kevin Boss should not be deployed even in the deepest of fantasy leagues. He failed to catch a pass vs. Denver and recorded two catches combined in Oakland’s last three games. We can conclude that the Raiders will utilize newly-signed TJ Houshmandzadeh out of the slot to catch short passes to move the chains, rendering Boss to blocking duties.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski is officially listed as Questionable (Rotowire) for Thursday’s tilt with San Diego. While he has a strong leg for fantasy purposes, we strongly advise that you pick up a replacement for this week and beyond.

Defense/Special Teams

I like many of you out there was burned by this defense last week vs. the Broncos. There was no excuses for last week’s showing and the defense as a whole should be ashamed of their performance. Tim Tebow looked like world-beaters and the newly-installed read-option playbook was effective. This week this unit gets a Chargers team. Avoid the Raiders’ defense at all costs this week. Sneaky alternatives this week include the Browns defense vs. the Rams and the Jags defense playing against the Colts.

Just Balance, Baby!

 Posted by at 4:00 PM  No Responses »
Nov 082011
 

Every year around this time something happens in the NFL, but not usually in Oakland. Al Davis had a grip on the Raiders for decades so it hadn’t quite taken root until now. The influence of the Head Coach begins to percolate through the team’s play and demeanor. Hue Jackson is making the Raiders an image of himself. Jackson is aggressive and undisciplined on defense and conservative and bland on offense (outside of “trick plays”). Balance is not on his list of personality traits. Hue Jackson’s inconsistent nature only works if he is actively supervised and held in check. Up until October 8th he was.

Coming into the Kansas City game, dating back to 2009, the Raiders had an 8-game wining streak inside the AFC West. Now, regardless of what the records say, the Raiders are playing the worst football in arguably the worst division in football.

It’s still interesting in Oakland, but the attention Oakland is getting is reminiscent of 2002-2009. Darrius Hayward-Bey was in the midst of proving why he was picked so highly in the draft, was demoted for a veteran who hasn’t played in months. Louis Murphy, who led all Raiders wide receivers in catches and yards over the past two years has been minimized to special teams and mop up duty. Even before Palmer arrival, Kevin Boss was not being used in the passing game.

Defense is all about mentality and Jackson’s lack of balance on offense is dictating the Raiders defensive play. The Raiders held Arian Foster, last year’s NFL leading rusher, to 68 yards with 20 coming on one run. For eight weeks the Raiders only let Fred Jackson, who is the midst of a pro-bowl year, put up more than 100 rushing yards on them. Then the Raiders let Willis McGahee, who was let go by Baltimore and was replaced by Ricky Williams, put up 163 yards rushing and  Tim Tebow add 118 more. Most of those yards came from the Raiders inability to stop the same play run over and over. The Raiders undisciplined defense made Tebow and the Denver offense instantly respectable. The Raiders ridiculous penalty problems on defense are no secret.

Hue Jackson is a lot things: he’s fiery, passionate, and usually aggressive at the right time and conservative at the right time. He’s just not balanced or disciplined. The more Jackson shapes his Raiders the more they become like him. There are eight games left and the division is up for grabs, all hope for this season is not lost.

Balance is needed to be consistent in the NFL as balance is one of the few ingredients that playoff contenders have. Just Balance, Baby!

Week 9 Preview: Matchups To Watch

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Nov 062011
 

Hue Jackson vs. Hue Jackson

This is the most important matchup of the game. Jackson made himself look foolish with the Raiders quarterback situation two weeks ago and Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer combined to throw six interceptions. Jackson will be walking a fine line this Sunday. He has to balance his aggressive tendencies, Carson Palmer’s effectiveness and game management. The play calling has to vary enough to keep the passing game respectable without putting Palmer in a position to fail. Jackson has to remember that the opposing team has one of the worst quarterbacks and will struggle to be productive. If the Raiders lose this game it is because Jackson failed.

Carson Palmer vs. Carson Palmer

Palmer will make his starting quarterback debut this Sunday vs. Denver. To lead the Raiders to victory this Sunday, Palmer has to be more of a game manager than anything else. Rather than making plays that lead his team to victory, Palmer has to avoid plays that give away the game. This is not the game for Palmer to prove to everybody how comfortable he is in the offense. It’s the game for him to relay on passing outlets, work play action and find out what works. A multiple interception game by Palmer could make this game closer than the Raiders are comfortable with.

Michael Bush vs. Denver’s Front Seven

Carrying the load last game Bush finished with 99 yards. With McFadden officially out for this game, this is another opportunity for Bush to showcase his talents and to show everybody why he deserves a big contract in the offseason. To do this, Bush has to get the tough rushing yards when Denver’s front seven is expecting the run. Bush will also be relied upon as a passing outlet and to pick up blitzes in the passing game. Denver boasts a mediocre rush defense but has not let a back get 100 yards since McFadden put up 150 in week one. Wesley Woodyard, Denver’s leading tackler, will be all over the place trying to ensure the trend continues. This is an opportunity for Bush to showcase himself for the big contract.

Jared Veldheer/ Kalif Barnes vs. Von Miller

There are reasons why Miller is a leading candidate for defensive rookie of the year. He is in the top 10 in the league with 6 sacks and is fourth on his team in total tackles. With Palmer making his first start, the Broncos will likely test how he directs the lines protection and handles varied pressure. Veldheer and Barnes have to make sure this rookie does not consistently get to Palmer. The real test will be on third and longs, where the Raiders choose to pass and Miller is set in pass rushing mode.

Kevin Boss/ Brandon Myers vs. Denver Defense

The Raider tight ends will be needed to run block and provide support against Denver’s outside pass rush. So far this season, the success of McFadden and the wide outs have overshadowed Boss’ lack of productivity in the passing game. As Palmer is adjusting Boss and Myers need to become more reliable passing options. Boss needs to make big plays when Denver loads the box to stop the run. Denver has allowed two tight end touchdowns over the past two weeks. Either Boss will make an impact and reach the end zone or he will disappear.The Raider need Boss to have a good game on Sunday.

Tim Tebow vs. Chuck Bresnahan

The Raiders linebackers are better blitzing than in coverage. Chuck Bresnanhan’s safeties are effective blitzers and Tebow can’t stay composed in the face of blitzes. Expect Bresnahan to blitz Tebow as his inability to stay composed is undermining any effort of his to become a legitimate NFL quarterback. For Tebow not to be too embarrassed this Sunday, he needs to establish his mobility as a weapon and count on various screen plays and check downs. With inadequate wide receivers and his quarterback skills, Tebow must rely on his legs to make plays. The Raiders D has to make sure they get sacks on Tebow and not let him escape their blitzes.

Knowshon Moreno & Willis McGahee vs. Richard Seymour & Aaron Curry

McGahee when healthy is showing that he still has fuel and could very well eclipse the 1,000 mark for the first
time since 2007. He has three 100-yard games this season but is coming off a broken hand. He will likely play and get the majority of the carries. Seymour sets the tone for the entire defense. When he plays with the right amount of aggression and discipline, the Raiders defense is one of the league’s best. McGahee and Moreno have combined for 20 catches and 2 touchdowns this season and pose a threat coming out of the backfield. As Tebow struggles finding targets downfield, expect him to look to these back. Curry has historically struggled in pass coverage, but so far with the Raiders, this has not been a problem. Look for McGahee and Moreno to test Curry in pass coverage.

Eric Decker vs. DeMarcus Van Dyke

Decker is the bright spot in Denver’s largely inept passing attack. He has 30 catches, three more than DHB and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 5 touchdowns receptions. He has potential and his ability made Denver comfortable trading Brandon Lloyd. If Tebow has success connecting with any of Denver’s wide receivers it is Decker. The Raiders won’t shadow Decker. Expect, Tebow to try to connect with Decker when he is lined up against Van Dyke. Van Dyke is experiencing ups and down during his rookie year but is progressing. Look for Van Dyke to be tested often and for him to have his hands on the ball.

Prediction:

Expect a somewhat conservative Hue Jackson game plan, one that features Michael Bush and has a few wrinkles. The only good thing about Tebow’s performance will be his 50+ yard rushing effort. Oakland 20, Denver 13.

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