A Tale of Two Seasons

 Posted by at 12:50 PM  No Responses »
Nov 052011
 

It’s been a NFL season full of abnormalities due to the lockout and the Raiders have been no exception. Many thought the Raiders would finally find their grove. The team finally had a guy they could call their franchise quarterback in Jason Campbell and they were full of young talent at just about every position. Hue Jackson, a fiery new coach, seemed to have the right formula for success. It started well enough, until week 5 when the wheels started to come off.

The Raiders lost their fearless leader Al Davis. While the Raiders were able to rally to beat the Texans that week, it was easy to tell that things were not the same in Oakland. Although often scrutinized for his managerial decisions, Al Davis ran things his way and answered to no one. Meaning when it came time to make decisions, they were made, and people moved on. Uncertainty was the word of the week when it came to how the Raiders would move forward. It didn’t take long to find out who was now making the calls. Hue Jackson quickly took the reigns and swung a trade for former first-round draft pick Aaron Curry to replace then starting weak-side linebacker Quentin Groves.

In the very next game against Cleveland, the Raiders took another big blow as starting QB Jason Campbell went down with a broken clavicle. The Raider faithful was in disbelief. A season that showed so much promise was quickly taking a turn for the worse. The Raiders managed to hold on and win that game on the strength of Janikowski’s leg and a fake field goal pass to Kevin Boss for a touchdown. The win was bitter sweet as Oakland, now 4-2, was left wondering who was going to finish the season at quarterback. Kyle Boller did very little in relief of Campbell against Cleveland and it was painfully obvious the coaching staff did not have faith in his abilities to run the offense.

Hue Jackson knew the season was hanging in the balance and, with his added decision-making power, began negotiations on a bigger than blockbuster trade that brough Caron Palmer to Oakland. Jackson called up his old buddy Mike Brown and persuaded him to hand over the key to a former Pro Bowl quarterback who was sitting out in protest of playing another season in Cincinnati. Palmer did not come cheap as the Raiders sent the Bengals a first round pick in 2012 and a conditional first round pick in 2013. With the acquisition came many questions. How much did Palmer have left? How quickly could he pick up the offense? Would he be able to gel with Oakland’s young receiving core? Would he be ready in time for the next game? Did the Raiders give up too much of the future in panic of having this season be lost?

The NFL season does not stop to allow a franchise to catch its breath. The Raiders had an important divisional game to get ready for against the Kansas City Chiefs. Having only a couple of days in Oakland before the next game, it was pretty clear that Kyle Boller had to make the start against the Chiefs. Adding to the list of problems for the Raiders, kicker Sebastian Janikowski injured his hamstring in practice and running back Darren McFadden sprained his foot on the opening drive and would not return. After an atrocious first half and opening series in the second half that saw Kyle Boller seemingly throwing more completions to Kansas City defensive backs than his own receivers, Hue had seen enough. In came Carson Palmer who knew all of 15 plays in his new offense and had essentially no time to get any type of timing down with his new wide receivers. The rest of the game concluded as you would expect. Palmer threw three interceptions and the Raiders offense was clearly in shambles. To say the offense wasn’t on the same page would insinuate that it appeared they were even reading the same book. From the looks of things, it wasn’t clear that was true. After a 28-0 loss, the bye week couldn’t get here soon enough.

The Raiders had two weeks to get things straight before division games against Denver and San Diego within a span of five days. Hue Jackson, still trying to adjust to all the turmoil, was not done making waves. He brought in T.J. Houshmandzadeh for a workout and eventually signed him to a veteran minimum deal much to the dismay of a lot of fans who did not understand the reason behind the signing. Houshmandzadeh played with Carson Palmer for six seasons, and has trained with him in the offseason for many years.  Veteran knowledge and timing with your quarterback are very undervalued in this league today.

Heading into the second half  the Raiders are essentially starting a whole new season. Not only are they tied for first in the AFC West with San Diego and Kansas City, but they are beginning the second half with a new starting quarterback, the backup running back, a new receiver, and the return of fullback Marcel Reece. Reece has been out of the lineup with an ankle injury since week two.

While many may expect Carson Palmer to take off as the Raiders new starting quarterback, you have to take a step back to realize what is actually unfolding in Oakland. How many times in NFL history has a starting quarterback gone down mid-season, only to have the team trade for quarterback that had been unemployed and pick up right where they left off? Fans should absolutely have faith in the Raiders new Palmer-led offense, but should also understand that patience will be essential. The Raiders face an up hill climb to winning the AFC West. That climb starts on Sunday when Denver comes to town. Nothing would begin to heal the wounds better than a thrashing of Tim Tebow and the Broncos in front of a sold out O.co Coliseum crowd.

Raiders’ Week 9 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 9:21 AM  No Responses »
Nov 052011
 

Quarterback

This position, in regards to Fantasy, is less of a crap shoot than it was two weeks ago, but there’s still no way to confidently say play Palmer over other QBs in the NFL. Palmer’s play against the Chiefs was not an indication of his future play because he was unprepared and didn’t have his go-to: Darren McFadden. He was just trying to clean up Boller’s mess. This week he still won’t have McFadden, but he will have T.J. “Who’s-Yo-Mama” Houshmandzadeh with whom he practiced during his “retirement.” Housh will give Palmer a reliable target that he’s comfortable with and can go to on third downs, or any other down for that matter. It would irresponsible to give a definitive “go!” for starting Palmer on your team this week. On the bright side, Tebow will make him look like a pro-bowler again.

Running Back

All of you who have been reaping the benefits of McFadden’s success have probably been drinking yourself to sleep after seeing him leave practice in a boot. Leave the kool-aid alone though because he’ll be back. Until then you can play Michael Bush and/or Taiwan Jones. While neither will get tons of yards, they’ll still get decent numbers, especially Bush. Palmer may go more to the air since he’s got his training-mate on the team now, but the Raiders’ success has been built on the run. Luckily, the Broncos will be unprepared since it’s unclear if the game will be more passing or rushing. Play Bush, he should get 20 carries. The key to winning with regard to your Fantasy team is just remembering to sit McFadden and play someone who will actually run.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey is the only receiver worth owning in terms of fantasy production. The addition of Houshmandzadeh to the mix really muddies the water for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. If you’ve been stashing Moore this year, it’s OK to cut him loose now unless you are in a keeper league. Houshmandzadeh was quoted saying that there are a lot of fast guys on the team but they’re not as polished as route-runners. While he is definitely positioning himself within the team, there is a morsel of truth to that. Moore and Ford stretches the field in a way they play and cannot be counted on for consistent production. Coming off a bye, we’re hoping that DHB has built some sort of rapport with Palmer and he is proving doubters wrong. Right now he is considered to be a low-end WR2 and strong WR3.

Tight End

Kevin Boss can make a sneaky play this week for owners truly desperate for a TE. Oakland is squaring off against a Broncos defense who have been pretty stout thus far to opposing tight ends, but coming off a bye, the Raiders could play at a maximum effort to keep pace in the AFC West. The addition of Houshmandzadeh definitely hurts his value, as they both operate in the middle of the field. Boss is definitely a player worth keeping an eye on to see how Carson Palmer utilizes him.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski hasn’t been able to practice this week and Dave Rayner may get the call again. Avoid this situation if you can. Some strong plays this week include Matt Bryant who is squaring off against the Colts indoors.

Defense/Special Teams

While the Raiders defense has ranked towards the bottom in most statistical categories this year, this is a defense with value this week vs. Tim Tebow. The Raiders defense has played better than their stats suggests with Richard Seymour leading the way. Tebow is turnover prone and he is susceptible to the pass rush. Seymour alone could match his season sack total of five in this game, to double his output for the season. And yeah, I don’t need to tell you that Ford is returning kicks for this game. It’s added incentive for you to play them this week.

Week 7: Matchups To Watch

 Posted by at 7:01 AM  No Responses »
Oct 232011
 

Matchups

Hue Jackson vs. Romeo Crennel

Regardless of who the Raiders quarterback is Hue Jackson is in a difficult spot. This game will feature the Raiders passing game at its lowest point of the season. Expect Crennel’s defense to key in on the run and attempt to apply pressure on passing downs. Look for Kansas City’s cornerbacks to play bump and run in attempt to throw Oakland’s passing game off its timing. Crennel, who won three Super Bowls as defensive coordinator in New England, will try to force Hue Jackson to use the passing game.

Darren McFadden/Michael Bush vs. Kansas City Linebackers

The pressure is on DMC and Bush this week to carry the load. DMC and Bush will also be the quarterback safety valve in the passing game. Look for more plays that have Bush and DMC in the backfield together and don’t be surprised if Bush gets more touches overall. The Chiefs run a 3-4 defense and are anchored by inconsistent linebackers Jevon Belcher and Derrick Johnson. Tambi Hali has four out of the five Chief sacks this season. With the Chiefs eyeing the run and recalling how the Raiders have run over them last season, they are sure to be highly motivated. This is a match-up the Raiders running backs need to consistently win.

Raiders Quarterbacks vs. Chief’s Secondary

To succeed offensively, the Raiders quarterback does not need to throw for 300 yards. The Raiders quarterback needs to distribute the ball and not make mistakes. More than any other game this season, the Raiders quarterback needs to be clutch. Kansas City lost Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry early in the season to injury, but they still have cornerbacks Brandon Flowers and Brandon Carr, who have three interceptions combined. Flowers and Carr play aggressive, but do have a have a tendency to get beat deep. If the Raiders offense is to be effective, look for the Raiders quarterback to take advantage of any soft coverage given to wide receivers and any coverage mistakes by the Chief safeties.

Raiders’ offensive line vs. Chiefs front 7

After having their worst game in Houston, the Raiders offensive line regained their form last week against the Browns. This week, the pressure will be on them to deliver in the running game. The Raiders offensive line faces a defensive front that is in the bottom third in the league in rushing yards allowed. The Chiefs are 31st in the NFL in sacks with only  five and Hali has four of them. The Chiefs will surely test the communication between the Raiders offensive line and the Raiders quarterback. Look for the offensive line to provide running lanes for the running backs against eight-man fronts and run blitzes.

Raiders Tight Ends vs. Chiefs Defense

The Raiders tight end’s need to make critical blocks against the Chiefs outside linebackers that seal the edge for the running game. The Chiefs run a 3-4, and the Raiders running game has had mixed results when facing 3-4 teams. The Raiders had a season high 234 rushing yards vs. the Jets and a season low 94 against the Texans. Not only will the Raiders tight ends be counted on in the run game, but also must play a vital part in the passing game. When the Raiders do pass they will rely on play action and short, safe throws. With Berry injured the Raider tight ends will work the Chiefs safeties. Outside of the fake field goal touchdown last week Kevin Boss has been a non-factor for the past two games. This is the time for Boss to make his presence felt in the passing game.

Matt Cassel vs. Chuck Bresnahan

The last two games the Raiders have held the opposing teams to an average of 68 rushing yards and the blitzes are coming from everywhere. Bresnahan has been able to get his defense to play with the right mixture of disciple while remaining aggressive. With Jamaal Charles’ injury, the Chiefs offense was forced to adapt. In both of the Chiefs victories, Cassel  passed for over 240 yards, in all three of losses, Cassel did not hit 200. For Cassel and the Chiefs to have success, Cassel needs to expose the Raiders when they play undisciplined. The Raiders aggressive defense may have problems covering the running back in the flat and tight ends when the Chiefs use play action. Look for Cassel to attempt a good handful of draws, screens and play action passes.

Thomas Jones/Jackie Battle vs. Raiders Defensive Line

With youth and size on his side, expect Jackie Battle to shoulder the running load and Thomas Jones to get a few carries as well. Against the Colts, Battle had a breakout game running for 119 yards on 19 carries, but the Colts line isn’t built like the one in Oakland. The Raiders defensive line is the unquestionable strength of the team. Since an undisciplined day vs. New England, the defensive line has been dominant. Matt Shaughnessy is officially out for the rest of the year. Expect Desmond Bryant, Jarvis Moss and Trevor Scott to step up. Look for the Raiders defensive line to command the line of scrimmage once again. The Raiders should continue to prevent the Chiefs from getting their first rushing touchdown of the season.

Dwayne Bowe vs. DeMarcus Van Dyke

Dwayne Bowe is by far the Chiefs most explosive and most consistent offensive weapon. Out of the Chiefs five games, he has been the game’s leading receiver in four of them. Bowe has accounted for half of Kansas City’s touchdowns and nearly half of the receiving yards. The Chiefs do not have a rushing touchdown because they rely on Bowe in the red zone. With Chris Johnson still not healthy and Stanford Routt being largely avoided, look for Cassel to take advantage when Bowe is matched up against Van Dyke. Bowe to be against Van Dyke in the red zone. It’s the rookie’s first true test.

Oakland’s Special teams vs. Steve Hoffman

Oakland’s special teams  is probably one of the league’s best. In the past two games the Raiders have had a kickoff return for touchdown, a fake punt run for 35 yards and a fake field goal for a touchdown. The Raiders will miss Janikowski’s presence,but Steve Hoffman, the Chiefs special teams coach, has had to get his unit ready for anything.

Prediction: With this game being a transition game for Raiders because of the quarterback situation. Expect an old-fashioned AFC West intense, hardnosed, and close game. Raiders 17, Chiefs 13

Raiders’ Week 7 Fantasy Impact

 Posted by at 1:15 PM  No Responses »
Oct 212011
 

Quarterback

Not sure what to tell you here except don’t play Campbell or Boller. Obviously. Al Saunders basically told everyone that Palmer will start, but Jackson is trying to “surprise” people on Sunday. Hue, your surprises are welcome in Raider Nation, but not in Fantasy Land. Pick up Palmer as your QB if you need one this week because chances are very good he’ll start. That being said, he has a big playbook to learn. He’s worked with Jackson before at USC and Cincy, so he knows his style, but hasn’t had the time to memorize the NFL’s most prolific playbook. This leaves the chance of interceptions if he gets routes confused, so most likely he’ll be handing off a lot. Running is what the Raiders do best, but it gets you nowhere in Fantasy. Pick up Palmer, but don’t play him just yet, unless you’re QB-less.

Running Backs

If DMC is going to have a huge, monster week, this is it. Not only will he be able to run all over the Chief’s defense, his quarterback will require it. No matter if it’s Boller or Palmer, they’ll be demanding a lot of McFadden this week. He’ll generate RB points that you have only seen in your, well, fantasies. Michael Bush may also get his season high yardage in this game. DMC can do a lot, but he can’t do it on his own. Bush will be right there to back him up. You may even get a TD out of him. Rock is listed as questionable, so that’s an obvious no. and he’s primarily special teams player. Taiwan Jones may get some carries, since the run game will be so heavily used, but not enough to advise playing him.

Wide Receivers

The wide receivers you want to own in Oakland is Darrius Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore at the present time. With the arrival of Palmer in Oakland, anyone of the young Raiders receivers may have sneaky value in the second half of the season. The rapport Palmer had with Terrell Owens was great chemistry and smart fantasy owners are invited to scout the return of Louis Murphy. Murphy is a do-it-all receiver, making his stamp in the possession game. Murphy and QB Bruce Gradkowski had great chemistry before injuries plagued this QB and WR combo. If you held on to Jacoby Ford since your fantasy draft day, it’s safe to let him go unless you are in deeper leagues. Ford is relegated to kick and punt returns to utilize his great speed, but is untrustworthy in fantasy purposes in terms of the kind of steady production he will provide you. Maybe wait one more week before cutting Ford loose to see if his role continues to expand as he gets healthy. Our money in terms of the rest of the season production lies in DHB, Moore, and possibly Ford and Murphy.

Tight Ends

While you’re scouting Murphy, Kevin Boss is a player that can make an impact during your fantasy playoffs as well. Once QB Palmer and Boss have a couple of games under their belt, Palmer may lean on Boss to move the chains and play possession ball that Head Coach Hue Jackson and the Raiders will want to employ. Boss scored a touchdown against the Browns on a fake punt thrown by Shane Lechler. Keep Boss in your “players to watch” list.

Kicker

Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, the Raiders are auditioning kickers due to injury to Sebastian Janikowski. If your fantasy team depth is enough to hold two kickers, I advise you hold onto Janikowski because his leg is truly special. However, fantasy wise, kickers are replaceable as their output is unpredictable. Monitor the situation with Janikowski closely. A great play this week would the Seahawk’s Steven Hauschka as they play the Browns this week or the Ravens’ Billy Cundiff as he put up 20 points in most leagues last week.

Defense/Special Teams

A lot of fantasy owners are clamoring for the Dallas defense this week and deservedly so due to their matchup vs. the hapless Rams. But if you lost out on the waiver wire add, consider the Raiders defense this week. They are playing the Chiefs who got blown out the first two weeks of the season and beat two below average teams in the Vikings and the Colts. There is no faith now that the Chiefs are better than their 2-3 records suggest. They are trotting out RB Jackie Battle, a former special teamer and Matt Cassel was throwing a ton in their last game against the Colts. Word out of their camp was that Head Coach Todd Haley would have gotten fired if they lost against the Colts. What makes the Raiders D/ST a great play is the ability of KR Ford to take it to the house as he did vs. the Browns for those valuable special teams points. This week the Raiders will put the hammer down on this AFC West rival and continue their undefeated streak in the division.

Week 6 Preview: Browns @ Raiders

 Posted by at 12:12 AM  1 Response »
Oct 162011
 

On Offense

With all the discussion about last week’s emotional win in Houston it is easy to forget that statistically, last week was the Raiders worse offensive game. Last week, the Raiders finished with 278 offensive yards marking the first time since week 1 the team did not reach 300 yards. The Raiders offense were out-gaineed by nearly 200 yards, by far the largest amount so far this season. The most the Raiders had been out-gained this season was by 56 in Week 3 when Mark Sanchez and the Jets were playing catch-up and attempted 44 passes.

To improve this week, it starts up front with the big hogs. The Raiders offensive line last gave up 3 sacks in week 5 after only allowing two total in the other four games this season. The Browns have 11 sacks in four games and a pass rush that could pose problems to the Raiders offensive line. Darren McFadden totaled only 51 rushing yards in week 5 and 75 in week 4. The opposition has done a good job shrinking the running lanes the past two weeks. Regardless of the defensive front or scheme the Raiders offensive line needs to find a way to get McFadden cleanly to the second level and beyond.

The Browns will likely load the box and make Jason Campbell prove he can be consistently accurate. In order to help open up the running lanes, Jason Campbell must make the Browns secondary respect the pass. Campbell can do this by connecting with tight end Kevin Boss and other receivers on intermediate passing routes. Campbell will be facing a defense that is giving up less than 200 passing yards a game so look for McFadden to break out his mini funk with 125 yards or more this week and look for Kevin Boss to make an impact in the red zone.

 

On Defense

The Browns are led by Colt McCoy and running back Peyton Hillis, but Hillis has been maligned and McCoy has shouldered the offensive burden impressively. In four games, McCoy has passed for 984 yards and 6 touchdowns. More would be talked about McCoy’s campaign if it was not for Hillis’ off the field problems. Given that Hillis’ agent did not advise him to sit out this game; the Raiders should expect a healthy dosage of him. His physical running style will go along with a well-distributed passing game which will feature team leading receiver Mohamed Massaquoi and tight end Benjamin Watson. This Sunday, Cleveland rookie Greg Little will get his first career start at wide receiver.

So far this season, the Browns offense has not been impressive. Victories in the NFL cannot be taken for granted and opponents cannot be underestimated, but the Browns’ victories came over Indianapolis and Miami. Cal product Alex Mack is the Browns starting center and is recovering from an appendectomy. This is a golden opportunity for the Raiders defensive line to flex their muscle and dominate once again. After one practice Aaron Curry will get the start, look for him to be around the ball on running downs and off the field in passing situations. Look for multiple sacks from the defensive line and an interception or two in the secondary.

 

Matchups

Darren McFadden vs. D’Qwell Johnson

D’Qwell Johnson has been plagued with injuries during his career but he is now staying healthy and is having the best season of his career. He has registered double digits in tackles in three out if the Browns four games this season. Johnson also leads all middle linebackers in sacks and was voted AFC defensive player of the month in September. For the Raiders to have a big game, McFadden needs to have early success. After two unusually subpar games, McFadden needs to get back on track. The key will be how many times McFadden gets past the first wave of Cleveland defenders.

Raiders’ Offensive line vs. Browns’ front 7

In all aspects the Raiders offensive line had their worst game last week and it showed. They gave up 3 sacks and the Raiders only gained 94 rushing yards. The Browns are coming off a bye but they will be without pass rushing Marcus Bernard. The Browns front 7 has a good combination of size, experience and speed. They are led on the line by 300 pounder Ahtyba Rubin and in the linebacker corps by D’Qwell Johnson. The Browns have had early contributions from massive rookie lineman Phil Taylor and his defensive end peer Jabaal Sheard. This matchup will set the Raiders offensive tempo for much of the game.

Jason Campbell vs. Browns’ Secondary

Campbell did barely enough to lead his team to victory last week. The Browns’ defense will likely come out loading the box, begging Campbell to make accurate throws. Campbell needs to make the Browns’ respect the pass. For McFadden to have success, Campbell needs to distribute the ball well, take advantage of open receivers and make accurate passes. The Browns secondary has an impressive mixture of experience and youth with 2nd year safety T.J Ward leading the way. Pass defense is a team effort but so far the Browns’ secondary is holding teams under 200 passing yards a game. Joe Haden, the Browns’ stud corner back is coming off a knee injury and will likely be a game time decision, his presence could be missed.

Kevin Boss vs. Browns’ coverage

Three out of the four games the Browns have played a tight end has caught a touchdown. Two out of those three games, the tight end was the leading receiver for the other team. Kevin Boss started the season injured and has been outshined by the Raiders wide receivers to this point. Boss has yet to reach the end zone so look for Boss to have his coming out party this Sunday against a defense that struggles defending the tight end.

Colt McCoy vs Chuch Bresnahan

Colt McCoy deserves his own light. With Hillis’ shenanigans, McCoy really has really stepped up and led this team. After a record-setting collegiate career, McCoy probably still has a chip on his shoulder after falling into the third round. Watch for McCoy to distribute the ball well and work short routes that test the Raiders open field tackling. Last week, Bresnahan used blitzes to take his linebackers out of coverage and it worked. Look for Bresnahan to dial-up the blitz again. Bresnahan will probably use a mixture of blitz packages including safety and zone blitzes to put added pressure on the Browns’ young quarterback.

Peyton Hillis vs. Raiders Defensive Line

When the Raiders defensive line plays inspired and they lead the team to victory. Tommy Kelly, Richard Seymour and Lamarr Houston all had great games last week. If the defensive line was not busy holding Arian Foster to 68 yards rushing, they were getting after Schaub and deflecting passes. When the defensive line plays like this, they are nearly unstoppable. Peyton Hillis so far has been a disappointment this year. His play has taken back seat to his contract and him being sick. Look for Hillis to come out motivated after the bye week.

Greg Little vs. DeMarcus Van Dyke

Greg Little is making his first career start at wide receiver and has been an early season favorite of Colt McCoy’s. Little, who’s getting the start over Cribbs, has caught a respectful 14 balls for 131 yards this season. Even though he has a low average he has caught more balls in four games than any Raiders receiver has in five, outside Hayward-Bey. DVD had a great first start for the Raiders only giving up one catch. If DVD gets the start, expect Little on his side and for him to get consistently challenged.

Benjamin Watson/Evan Moore vs. Raiders Linebackers/Safeties

The best friend for any young quarterback is a reliable tight end. Watson has been McCoy’s favorite target, leading the team in receptions with 16. Moore has 7 catches in four games and is currently tied with Watson in touchdown catches with 2. Even though last week the Raiders defense was stout again the run, they had some blown coverages that resulted in touchdowns. The Texans tight ends finished with 12 catches for 201 yards last week. The Raiders linebackers did not play the pass well. They often respond late and were suckered by play action. The Raiders safeties have had communication problems as well as problems tackling. The Raiders need to clamp down on these tight ends or Watson and Moore will have a party of their own.

Aaron Curry vs Aaron Curry

Just after a couple of being traded Aaron Curry is making his first in the silver and black. Curry will be asked to play weak side linebacker, a position that he has never played. Curry will see runs his way and be responsible for cut backs on runs to the strong side. Curry will be tested early and often by the Browns. It would make sense for the Raiders to take Curry out on obvious passing downs. The key will be how he plays against play action and other pass plays. Curry get one chance to make a good first impression on his new team and to the Raider Nation and this is it.

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