Predicting the Raiders Defensive Starters

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Mar 052012
 

The Oakland Raiders may not do much shuffling on the offensive side of the ball, but the 29th ranked defense will be altered.

Stanford Routt has already been released and Reggie McKenzie promises even more change. Of the 11 positions on defense, only two have unquestioned starters.

Had the Raiders been healthy, the starters at the end of the season would have been nearly identical to the starters in Week 1. The lone exception would be Aaron Curry starting over Quentin Groves.

Since the Raiders will use both three-man and four-man fronts, we’ll have to predict the starters for both schemes.

 

RDE Matt Shaughnessy (4-3 only)

Last season, Shaughnessy was among the favorites during training camp to have a breakout, but hurt his shoulder and missed 13 games. He’ll return in 2012 and hope to revive the buzz he generated last offseason. Shaughnessy managed to record just one sack in three games in 2011 and will be ready to add to that total.

The introduction of the 3-4 will be very interesting for Shaughnessy and his only scheme fit appears to be as an end in the 4-3.

 

LDE Lamarr Houston

Houston registered one sack in 13 games after registering five in his rookie campaign in 2010. He’s stout against the run, but he can be neutralized when forced to rush the passer.

Houston’s best opportunity to rush the passer comes from the defensive tackle position in the 4-3, but Richard Seymour will remain with the Raiders for at least another season.

Houston is scheme diverse and should be able to translate into a nice 3-4 defensive end. Instead of coming off the field on passing downs like he has the past two seasons, Houston will stay on field.

 

DT Tommy Kelly

Kelly has been rumored to be on the chopping block, but he’s a decent bet to return and should restructure the mega deal he signed in 2008. Kelly quietly put up a career year in 2011 with 7.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 5 passes defended and 1 interception.

Houston gets the starting nod over Kelly at 3-4 end, but Kelly could be just as effective playing the 5-technique. The question with Kelly is if he is the right guy to defend the run or if he would be better suited for the 3-technique a position locked down by Richard Seymour.

 

DT/RDE Richard Seymour

McKenzie made a commitment to Seymour when the deadline came and went that made half of Seymour’s $15 million base salary in 2012 guaranteed. That means McKenzie will need to work out an extension with Seymour that reduces his cap number.

Seymour has experience running the 3-4 and 4-3 fronts and would start in both fronts. He’d continue to have good success as a 4-3 defensive tackle from the 3-technique and would start at LDE as a 5-technique defensive end. He’s one of the few locks on the defense.

 

OLB Manny Lawson

Aaron Curry played well after coming over from Seattle, but there was a reason he was traded and he’s due $5.7 million in 2012. It’s hard to imagine the Raiders wanting to pay Curry anything close to what his contract has paid him to this point and that will force the Raiders to go in a different direction.

The Raiders will look for a more affordable option in free agency and hopefully they will find an OLB who is equally effective in the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses. There aren’t many OLB options in free agency so this will be one of the more interesting positions to watch.

Lawson has experience in both schemes and with defensive coordinator Jason Tarver.

Lawson isn’t great at rushing the passer, but uses his natural athleticism. He’s underrated in coverage and a good defender against the run. He’s a well-rounded linebacker that is being undervalued by the rest of the league.

 

MLB/ILB Rolando McClain

It’s a make or break year for McClain. Playing more of the 3-4 defense will take some of the pressure off McClain and he should be able to play faster. However, effort has also been an issue with McClain and that’s something Dennis Allen and his staff needs to address right away.

Despite lackluster play to this point in his career the Raiders will give McClain his chance at redemption. It’s up to McClain to take advantage of his second chance and shut-up his critics.

 

ILB Joe Mays

The Raiders don’t have a lot of cap space and will find it difficult to add a ILB in free agency. Travis Goethel is a huge unknown, but he’d be a consideration for this position as well.

Dennis Allen was calling in the plays to Mays in Denver and the familiarity will help the Raiders defense get up to speed in Allen’s defense. Mays shouldn’t break the bank, he’ll play in 3-4 alignments and provide competition for McClain as at MLB.

 

OLB Kamerion Wimbley

There has been a lot of talk about Wimbley and how he’ll be released if he doesn’t restructure his contract. The fact that this has all come out in the media suggests the Raiders are having issues negotiating with Wimbley’s agent.

Wimbley has a ton of leverage and the Raiders need to restore fiscal responsibility. The Raiders can release Wimbley and suggest it’s part of the regime change in Oakland, but the truth is they want Wimbley back.

Something will get done at the last minute that keeps Wimbley in Oakland.

 

CB Terrell Thomas

He’s coming off an injury, but was a solid cornerback for the Giants for the past few seasons. He’s more of a number two cornerback, but the Raiders can’t afford a top option.

When you think about which players can be signed to a reasonable contract and fit the new defensive scheme, Thomas comes to mind. He’s a poor man’s Cortland Finnegan.

 

FS Brandon Underwood

The Raiders picked up ex-Packer Underwood as one of McKenzie’s first signings. It would be easy to look at Underwood as a potential starter at cornerback considering he was signed shortly after the release of Stanford Routt, but that’s a mistake.

The Packers were trying to convert Underwood into a free safety, something the Raiders should try to continue. If Underwood can stay focused, he’s got enough talent to start. The Raiders need options in the secondary and with a limited budget the Raiders will be forced to find a starter or two with minimum salaries.

 

SS Tyvon Branch

The Raiders put the franchise tag on Branch and will continue to work on a long-term contract. Branch hasn’t been featured in the Raiders defensive scheme to this point, but that should be changing.

Branch is an extremely underrated player in the secondary and the fans will finally get a chance to see it in 2012.

 

CB Michael Huff

Huff has a huge cap number, but recently tweeted how excited he was about Dennis Allen’s defense. That would be an awkward conversation if McKenzie planned on releasing Huff.

Huff likely will or has restructured his contract to be more favorable for the Raiders, and the Raiders may have a hard time finding solid cornerbacks in free agency.

Safeties aren’t easy to find in free agency either, but McKenzie won’t be able to justify the cost on two safeties so Huff will shift to cornerback.

3-4 Fits & Non-Fits

 Posted by at 10:52 AM  8 Responses »
Jan 082012
 

When you look at the Raiders current 4-3 defense, it appears the problem is very easy to solve. The Raiders have run a strict man-to-man defense for years. At certain times and with the right personnel it was successful. However, when creative offensive minds are scheming against it, the holes in it become clear.

Another big problem is the linebackers are trying to cover slot receivers, tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. A lot of the big plays that Oakland surrenders are the result of players playing outside of their “comfort zone” or natural ability. Using the last game against the Chargers as an example, when the Raiders needed a key stop San Diego would run a “rub” route or get Gates matched up with Kamerion Wimbley, Aaron Curry, or even LaMarr Houston (on at least one occasion) and make a big play. Those guys have little to no shot at covering Gates. Using a 3-4 defense would allow Oakland to disguise their defense more, integrate more zone coverage, and keep players in roles that are a better fit for their natural ability. Most quarterbacks will tell you that the 3-4 defense is harder to diagnose pre-snap. The argument can be made that some of Oakland’s troubles on defense could stem from players playing out of their natural positions.

3-4 Linebackers

Kamerion Wimbley played DE in a 4-3 at Florida State. He flourished at rushing the passer, but was considered too small to play 4-3 DE at the NFL level so scouts had him tagged as a 3-4 OLB. He was drafted by the Browns in 2006 and played DE his rookie season and tallied 11 sacks. The Browns switched him to a 3-4 OLB in that scheme for three years before trading him to the Raiders. He racked up 15.5 sacks in three seasons as a 3-4 OLB. He’s been effective as a third down pass rushing end for the Raiders, but he has never had the skills to cover as a linebacker. Wimbley is built and has the skill set to be a 3-4 rush LB, but is more effective putting his hand in the dirt.

Rolando McClain played and excelled in Nick Saban’s 3-4 defense at Alabama, yet he was drafted by the Raiders to play 4-3 MLB. McClain has proved time and time again that he is not a good player in space, but can get downhill, tackle, and fill gaps like he did in the 3-4 at Alabama. 3-4 ILB is his ideal position because he would no longer have multiple gap responsibilities as a 4-3 MLB does. That coupled with less coverage responsibilities on the outside could salvage what appears to be a career headed for a quick end.

Aaron Curry who was acquired from Seattle is currently the Will LB in the Raiders 4-3 scheme where he also often times get caught in man-to-man coverage. The scouting report on Curry is no secret. He gets lost in coverage, but when it comes to instincts, filling gaps in run support and tackling he is one of the best. That is exactly why he would make a smooth transition to 3-4 ILB, where filling gaps in run support and solid tackling is the name of the game.

Travis Goethel has been praised by coaches for 2 years now for being relentless to the ball and tackling well. We have yet to see much from him because of his injury woes, but he could fill in as a reserve ILB. This was the scouting report on CBS when he was coming out of college “Goethel’s average speed and overall athleticism might not allow him to stay outside in the NFL, but his hustle, instincts in coverage and secure tackling could earn him a spot on the strong side or even inside in a 3-4 defense”

3-4 Linemen

Richard Seymour played six seasons at defensive end in a 3-4 system with the Patriots before coming to Oakland. He had two seasons that resulted in 8 sacks, help the Patriots win three Super Bowls and went to the Pro Bowl in four straight years at that position.

Tommy Kelly’s rookie season with the Raiders was the last year the Raiders ran a 3-4 defense. Kelly played DE in that system and with limited playing time his rookie year he still was able to amass 4 sacks and played very well. Kelly has experience and has proven he can play the role of a 3-4 DE.

LaMarr Houston played DT at the University of Texas before being drafted by the Raiders. At 6’3” 305 lbs he has the size to fill the role of a DE in a 3-4 as well. Houston’s style of play also mirrors that of a 3-4 DE. He is a power guy who often wins at the point of attack, and is great at setting the edge, however he lacks the pass rushing skills to be really effective in a 4-3.

John Henderson is a massive mountain of a man. That lead some people to believe he could be a good NT. His height may make him best suited to play outside in the 3-4 as an end. Henderson has very little 3-4 experience in his career.

Matt Shaughnessy is perhaps the most interesting fit or non-fit on the a Raiders defensive line. He came into the NFL at 260 pounds and promptly added 10 to 15 pounds of muscle to his frame to play at a high level as a 4-3 defensive end. Shaughnessy has the length to play 3-4 end but may need to add even more bulk to effectively set the edge at the position. Shaughnessy could also find a home as a 3-4 OLB, but he might have to drop weight gain a little quickness. Mario Williams transitioned to 3-4 OLB at 280+ pounds and was effective for the games he played before being lost for the season.

There will need to be some personnel changes and the Raiders new GM Reggie McKenzie helped the Packers switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 in 2009 so he is no stranger to the conversion process.

A move to a 3-4 defense would immediately create a need for a NT and more 3-4 OLB’sand the Raiders may have excess ends for the 3-4. With Oakland’s lack of draft picks, that does create a challenge for the Raiders.

Aaron Curry Headed To Oakland

 Posted by at 1:21 PM  2 Responses »
Oct 122011
 

Raiders have acquired former 1st round pick Aaron Curry from the Seahawks for two future draft picks.

The compensation is a 7th round pick in 2012 and a conditional mid-round pick in the 2013 draft.

Aaron Curry was much heralded coming out of college but has been a non-impact player so far in his career. Curry has struggled to defend the pass and hasn’t added much as a pass rusher either. However, the Raiders likely traded Curry for his ability to stop the run. Curry has been decently successful at stopping the run since he entered the league despite occasional struggles.

The most likely scenario is that Curry is used in running situations to start as the staff work with Curry on other areas of his game.

With Matt Shaughnessy’s status in doubt the Raiders have worked out defensive ends and linebackers in successive weeks. The Raiders ultimately decided against signing these players. Kamerion Wimbley has been lining up more at defensive end with Shaughnessy out and that may continue as Curry sees time at Wimbley’s strong-side linebacker position.

While traditionally the strong-side linebacker would cover the tight end the Raiders are more likely to cover pass catching tight ends with a safety.

McClain missed practice Wednesday with an ankle injury the severity of which is currently unknown. If McClain were to miss time the Raiders could turn to Darryl Blackstock or slide Curry into the middle linebacker spot. The Raiders would certainly be able to more creatively shield Curry from having to drop into coverage if he played in the middle.

The trade is a low risk, high reward move and Curry’s draft status will not hang over his head in Oakland as it did in Seattle. Don’t expect Curry to be a plug-in starter unless the Raiders have injuries that force him to play, but he should help the Raiders shore up the run defense.

I wouldn’t expect Curry to move to the weak-side and challenge for Quentin Groves spot because of his deficiencies in pass coverage.

The Raiders Linebacker Problem

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  4 Responses »
Oct 062011
 

The strength of the Raiders defense as everyone knows is the defensive line. It is anchored by six-time pro-bowler Richard Seymour and 300-pounder Tommy Kelly. The defensive line also features two young stout defensive ends, Matt Shaugnessey and Lamarr Houston. This season has also featured plays by run stuffing 330 pounder John Henderson and a resurgent Jarvis Moss. This unit is the undeniable strength of the defense.

Coming into this season the biggest question regarding the Raiders defense was in the secondary. With Nnamdi leaving, the spotlight has been on Stanford Routt and he has quietly delivered. Tyvon Branch has made his fair share of plays, but he’s still working to improve his consistency. These two starters of the secondary are the only two starters that have stayed healthy and that played four games. Michael Huff, Chris Johnson, Mike Mitchell and DeMarcus Van Dyke have all missed time and the backups have played like backups. Once these four players return the play and potential of the secondary unit will come into focus.

What about the linebackers? Coming into the season, they were neither the strength of the defense nor the weakness. This unit has two former 1st round picks in Rolondo McClain and Kamerion Wimbley and a 2nd round pick in Quentin Groves. Since week 1, the Raiders linebackers have been struggling. The biggest problem with this unit is that Wimbley and Groves were both drafted into this league primarily on their pass rushing abilities and not their outside linebacker skills. Both of these men, are outside rush linebackers in a 3-4 system or a defensive end in the nickel or dime in passing situations. The problem with this unit is that Groves and Wimbley are not 4-3 outside linebackers.

McClain is a work in progress. Some plays, he makes a pass deflection or he makes the correct read, fills the correct gap and stuffs the run. But too often, he is slow to react, plays too high, takes bad angles and is easily sealed off. McClain can be a quality run stuffing middle linebacker but right now he needs his outside linebacker to back him up when he makes mistakes. Unfortunately for McClain, his outside linebackers are not linebackers who fit the system. This season is not the season to give up on McClain, the Raiders are putting him a very difficult position.

Wimbley and Groves can still find a home with the Raiders. Groves is not a financial liability and could actually provide quality depth in the linebacker or defensive line unit. Given that he isn’t relayed upon to produce as the starting outside linebacker. Wimbley, whose new contract is deserved, is his best and provides the most value when played at defensive end.

With Groves and Wimbley at outside linebacker the Raiders are trying to put a square peg in a round hole. Wimbley and Groves provide another example of how Al Davis loves size and speed. Having Wimbley and Groves start at outside linebacker is an experiment. This experiment has resulted in the Raiders owning the worst run defense in the league. Groves and Wimbley both need to quickly complete the transformation into quality 4-3 outside linebackers. If not, Oakland’s run defense will continue to be embarrassed and the Raiders will have to give up the experiment. If the Raiders are to win the AFC West and be playoff team, something has to change.

Jets @ Raiders: The Week 3 Preview

 Posted by at 9:56 AM  No Responses »
Sep 252011
 

On Offense by Brandon Dwonch

The Raiders offense has been hitting on all cylinders. Week 1 saw Darren McFadden run for 150 yards. Week 2 showcased the Raiders vertical passing game as Jason Campbell passed for 323 yards and hooked up with Denarius Moore for 146. McFadden could not be the second leading rusher in the NFL nor could Campbell be performing this well if not for the offensive line. The make shift offensive line is exceeding expectations and deserves recognition. The offensive line is creating holes, finishing blocks and keeping Campbell upright and clean.

This week the offensive line faces their stiffest test yet. The Jets’ defensive front seven is stout and only giving up 88 rushing yards per game. By comparison the Raiders defense is allowing 130 rushing yards a game. Even though the Jets front seven might be a little overrated, they and their coordinator cannot be taken lightly. Make no mistake, the Jets are a defensive team.

This is a match up of strength vs. strength. In order to win, the Raiders offense must remain balanced and efficient. This means the Raiders need to establish their physical presence in the trenches but also attack Darrelle Revis, Antonio Cromartie and the Jets secondary. If the Raiders can run for over 125 yards and pass for over 175 the offensive line would have “bullied” the Jets front seven.

 

On Defense by Brandon Dwonch

The Jets were a team for years that relied heavily on the run but so far this year they are trying to air it out. In two games this season the Jets have gained a paltry 146 rushing yards on a meager 48 attempts. With 32 of those attempts and 101 of those yards coming in a blowout win over Jacksonville. On the other hand, the Raiders average 35 rushing attempts and 160 rushing yards a game. With the Raiders allowing over 200 rushing yards last week, the Jets’ offensive approach might change. With the Jets being without their starting center Nick Mangold, expect the Raiders defensive line, led by Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly, to come out hungry to prove themselves and have a great game in front of a sold out coliseum.

Look for Mark Sanchez to test the Raiders questionable secondary. This Jets passing game revolves around Santonio Holmes, Plaxico Burress and Dustin Keller and Holmes and Keller are both serious threats. The Raiders for years have struggled covering good receiving tight ends. Keller is in the top three at his position in the AFC in receptions, yards and touchdowns and could take over this game. The Raiders cannot afford to let Keller get on a roll.

The Raiders could do themselves a favor by assigning Stanford Routt to shadow Holmes, but this is highly unlikely. Routt, who currently owns the lowest completion percentage against in the NFL at 28% (4/14), has earned a chance to create his own island. It is time to see the coverage in the secondary consistently rolled towards Chris Johnson or Demarcus Van Dyke’s side. For the Raiders secondary to improve they need to figure out and fix their defensive communication problems. They need to line up correctly and stick to their assignment. If not, it will be a very long game against the fundamentally sound Jets.

For the Raiders to win this game their secondary must produce. Somebody in the secondary needs to step up and make plays. If the Raiders defense holds Holmes and Keller’s combined receiving yardage under 100 and Mark Sanchez under 215 passing yards, they would have done their job very well and will give the Raiders a great chance for victory.

 

Matchups by Chris Hansen

Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly vs. Rookie Center Colin Baxter

Nick Mangold didn’t make the trip to Oakland. The undrafted rookie will start at center and face two of the best defensive tackles in the league. If Seymour and Kelly can apply pressure to Mark Sanchez up the middle, the Raiders have a good chance to disrupt the Jets’ pass and run game.

 

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Wayne Hunter

Another week and another right tackle for Wimbley to feast on. Putting pressure on Sanchez and forcing errors will be a key to victory. Wimbley should have another fun afternoon harassing the quarterback and should record his first sack of the year on Sunday.

 

Santonio Holmes vs. Stanford Routt

Although the Raiders aren’t likely to shadow Holmes with Routt, this is still a key matchup. Holmes is the flanker and as such will likely lineup across from Routt more than not. The Raiders must not have a repeat of what happened in week 2 and neutralizing Holmes needs to be their primary focus.

 

Dustin Keller vs. The Secondary

The Raiders may deploy several options to stop Keller which may include using Jerome Boyd, another safety or an extra cornerback. Keller presents the Raiders with challenges in coverage and the Raiders will likely initially counter with Boyd. This is the first game the Raiders will really need Boyd to step in and play like Mike Mitchell in 2010, covering tight ends and becoming a linebacker to stuff the run when needed.

 

D’Brickashaw Ferguson vs. Matt Shaughnessy

It’s a big game for Shaughnessy as he faces his first elite left tackle of the season. If Shaughnessy is going to become a pro bowl-type player these are the games were he needs to shine. Ferguson is a tall tackle at 6’6″ and Shaughnessy should do whatever he can to get underneath him to gain leverage. Sanchez will have a tough afternoon if he gets pressure from both sides.

 

Raiders Offensive Line vs. Jets Front Seven

It’s tough to point out any one player from these units that needs to play well, but Samson Satele will have his hands full with Sione Pouha the big nose tackle. Satele has played well, but has struggled in the past with good nose tackles. If Satele can handle Pouha without significant help from Stefen Wisniewski or Cooper Carlile, the two guards will be free to take on blitzing linebackers like Bart Scott and Calvin Pace. This is the greatest test of the Raiders new look offensive line and the two tackles will always be under the most pressure. Jared Veldheer and Khalif Barnes will need to diagnose blitzes on the outside and pick up the inside man to allow Jason Campbell to step up into the pocket.

 

Denarius Moore vs. Darrelle Revis

Will the Jets shadow the rookie with one of the best cornerbacks in the league? They might try to limit the rookie and force the Raiders other receivers to beat them. It’s a tough matchup for any rookie. If Moore can beat Revis for a couple his hype train may never stop.

 

Derek Hagan/Chaz Schilens vs. Kyle Wilson

It’s either Derek Hagan or Chaz Schilens for the Raiders against the Jets slot corner Kyle Wilson. The Jets slot corner has been targeted more than any other team through the first two weeks. Revis and Antonio Cromartie have limited opponents number one and two receivers leaving the slot corner as the best option. Look for the Raiders third receivers to play an important role in this game.

 

Kevin Boss vs. Blitzing Linebackers

It’s the debut for Boss in Silver and Black and it couldn’t have come at a more opportune time. The Jets like to throw crazy looks at the opposing quarterbacks and will send at least one linebacker to rush the passer. Boss will need to find the soft spot vacated by the rusher and Campbell will need to deliver the ball to Boss in the face of a rush. If accomplished the Raiders will effectively take away the linebacker lined up across from Boss and this will make it easier to diagnose blitzes as they will likely come from the weak side. The Raiders may try to do the same on the weak side by running screens to Darren McFadden. It is often more effective to burn the blitz on a pass than max protect, particularly when the opposing defense has Revis and Cromartie.

 

Hue Jackson vs. Rex Ryan

They both want bullies, but only one can be a bully on Sunday. Who will it be?  The Jets defense is aggressive and the Jackson may call a few misdirection plays and see if he can’t get some of his speed out in the open. Jackson needs to have his players on the same page to diagnose Ryan’s defensive looks that can give offenses fits. The bully this Sunday will be the coach who outsmart the man on the other side of the field.

 

Score Prediction: Raiders 20, Jets 19.

 

 

 

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