Best Case & Worst Case Scenarios For Each Raiders’ Draft Pick

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Mar 162012
 

The Raiders aren’t making much noise in free agency and will attempt to build through the draft. Missing are five of their original seven draft selections and in their place are five players that may contribute in 2012.

A couple more selections may be awarded as compensatory selections, but that is yet to be determined.

What is the best case and worse case scenarios for the Raiders’ 2012 draft? Not only does it depend on the players they draft, but how many they draft and how the players perform they obtained for those picks.

 

1st Round: Carson Palmer

Hue Jackson orchestrated a trade that brought Palmer to Oakland. It was too much to give up, but what’s done is done. The Raiders have their franchise quarterback, right? That’s the hope. The new regime is hitching their wagon to Palmer and putting a new offense around him. There wasn’t many other options for the Raiders.

Best Case: Palmer, with an offseason with the receivers and studying the offense, turns in a pro bowl season and leads the Raiders to their first playoff berth since 2002. Winning the AFC championship game would bump the 2013 pick from a second round to a first round pick and further justify why Hue Jackson traded for him.

Worst Case: Palmer continues to be a turnover machine and the Raiders change the offense to the extent that Palmer is handicapped by his weaknesses. Palmer is average, doesn’t lead the Raiders to the playoffs and never justifies even one of the two picks the Raiders gave up for him.

 

2nd Round: Joseph Barksdale and Taiwan Jones

2011 was the rookie year for Barksdale and Jones and neither produced. Jones was injured and never cracked the rotation at running back and Barkdale spent the entire season as a backup. While the Raiders don’t have their second round pick, they do have a two sophomore’s with a year of NFL experience. The Raiders will be counting some development from both players/

Best Case: Barksdale becomes a solid starter on the offensive line and Taiwan Jones becomes a nightmare speed back that is a threat to take the ball the distance every time he touches the ball.

Worst Case: Both wash out. Barksdale never wins a starting job and is eventually released. Jones has problems with injuries and tries to do too much when he gets the ball.

 

3rd Round: Terrelle Pryor & Draft Pick(s)

It should be intriguing how Greg Knapp works Pryor into the rotation at quarterback. Pryor will have to be patient with the Raiders if he wants to play quarterback. The Raiders could work Pryor into special packages and expand his role as he becomes more comfortable in the offense.

In return for losing Nnamdi Asomugha the Raiders should receive a draft pick. It is expected to be a pick in the third round. The Raiders may receive a second pick in the third round as compensation for losing Zach Miller.

Best Case: Pryor becomes a weapon on offense and takes over for Palmer in a couple of years as the starter. The Raiders get two picks and are able to find a quality defender at cornerback and linebacker.

Worst Case: Pryor isn’t ever a starter and can only play in special packages. Pryor is eventually released.The Raiders don’t receive a compensatory pick until the fourth round.

 

4th Round: Draft Pick(s)

The Raiders could receive a couple of compensatory draft picks for Zach Miller and Robert Gallery in the fourth round. The Raiders original pick in this round was traded for Jason Campbell two years ago.

Best Case: Raiders receive an additional pick in the fourth round for Robert Gallery having received two in the third for Asomugha and Miller. The Raiders find a quality lineman.

Worst Case: Raiders receive only one pick and are forced to try to find a player at a position of need, but because it’s the end of the fourth round the quality prospects at linebacker and cornerback are off the board.

 

5th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

With the 13th pick of the fifth round the Raiders will have their first non-compensatory selection of the 2012 draft. An additional compensatory selection is possible at the end of the fifth for Robert Gallery if they are not awarded one in the fourth, but it is also possible the Raiders don’t receive a compensatory for Gallery at all.

Best case: McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a fifth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fourth.

Worst case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders are unable to move the pick. McKenzie drafts his best player available, but the player will be sitting behind established starters for the next several years.

 

6th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

The Raiders will have the 19th pick in the sixth round. It is one of the Raiders original picks giving the Raiders the option of trading the pick if it benefits them.

Best Case:  McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a sixth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fifth.

Worst Case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders need the pick to find a player to fill out the roster, but McKenzie plays it safe and drafts a role player.

 

7th Round: Aaron Curry

The Raiders traded their seventh-round selection for Aaron Curry last season. Curry and the Raiders had mutual interest in continuing the relationship and worked out a restructured contract in 2012 that saves the Raiders cap space.

Best Case: Curry turns into the pro bowl caliber linebacker he was expected to be when he was drafted out of Wake Forest and solidifies the defense.

Worst Case: Curry remains a liability in coverage and the Raiders have to bring in a player for Curry on third down.

2011 Bold Predictions Revisited

 Posted by at 6:48 PM  No Responses »
Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

2011 Oakland Raiders Season Preview

 Posted by at 9:55 PM  1 Response »
Sep 102011
 

Only two seasons ago the Raiders had trouble scoring touchdowns. All of that changed when Hue Jackson arrived as offensive coordinator prior to the 2010 season. Despite the continued problems pass blocking the Raiders vaulted into the top ten in total yards and top six in points per game. Despite the offensive improvement the Raiders had other problems that caused them to end the season with an 8-8 record.

Fast forward to 2011 and the Raiders offense appears ready to exceed their 2010 production, but the Raiders will need to curb a troubling trend of being unable to stop the run or create turnovers. The poor pass blocking was also a concern as the Raiders struggled with quarterback injuries in 2010. Unable or unwilling to retain the services of all-pro cornerback Nnamdi Asomugha, the Raiders pass defense is now under a microscope.
What’s in store for the 2011 Raiders? Let’s take a look at the key areas.

 

Can the Raiders Stop the Run?

The Raiders have been unable to play consistently against the run despite changes in defensive personnel. Richard Seymour and the coaching staff claim this is just a matter of attitude and the players all being on the same page.

Reality is that the Raiders defensive scheme makes stopping the run more difficult. The Raiders front four attempts to penetrate into the backfield and this creates running lanes. If the linebacker is blocked or does not fill the correct gap the running back is likely headed for the secondary, where sure tacklers are scarce save Tyvon Branch.

The defensive backs often have their back turned playing man-to-man and opposing offenses will often have their receivers run off the coverage on running plays instead of blocking.

Richard Seymour, Tommy Kelly, Lamarr Houston and Matt Shaughnessy have the opportunity to be one of the best defensive fronts in the NFL, but if they can’t help stop the run they will continue to get accolades while costing the Raiders wins.

The linebackers will need to do their part to help the defensive front and fill the running lanes and make solid tackles.

It is a very important season for middle linebacker Rolando McClain. How he coordinates the defense and if he can play faster and more consistently will go a long way in helping the Raiders run defense.

The other key the Raiders run defense is veteran defensive tackle John Henderson. Henderson was brought in to be a specialist of sorts. He’s the Raiders run plug up the middle. If Henderson can stay healthy he should help solidify the Raiders run defense.
Quentin Groves is clearly the weakest link in the front seven. Absent a suitable replacement the Raiders are stuck with him. If Groves can’t improve his play defenses are going to target him.
Kamerion Wimbley may be the star of the front seven. As a strong-side linebacker Wimbley has played well enough. As a defensive end in passing situation Wimbley has been a force. He was paid according to his production this offseason.

If Al Davis gives Chuck Bresnahan the flexibility to change-up the defensive scheme, the Raiders may improve in 2011. It’s a risk for Bresnahan to change the defensive philosophy too drastically, but minor tweaks may result in significant strides.

 

Can the Raiders Pass Block?

The Raiders return three starters on the offensive line and Stefen Wisniewski will be the only new player to the team playing with the starting five. The Raiders must have realized the mistake in shuffling the offensive line too drastically, because the starting line remains relatively unchanged from 2010.

Jared Veldheer must make strides as the Raiders left tackle and protect Jason Campbell’s blindside so he can deliver the football down the field. His continued development is vitally important to the passing game’s success. Based on observations of his play he has already improved since the end of last season.
Samson Satele has played better during this preseason than he has in his career. He’ll still struggle with nose tackles, but his solid play is a welcome sign on the offensive line. If he remains consistent and plays like he is capable the Raiders will be content to keep starting him.

With Cooper Carlisle and Khalif Barnes on the right side of the line, expect much of the same. Occasionally lapses in pass blocking may be the norm. The Raiders can tolerate a certain level of mediocrity from these two provided they don’t also make mental errors that kill drives. However, poor play may cost Carlisle and Barnes their starting jobs.

The Raiders do have the benefit of depth for the first time in many years. Stephon Heyer, Joseph Barksdale and Bruce Campbell are a much improved group of backups. Poor play by the starters or elevated play by the backups could result in changes to the starting five. Heyer could force his way into the lineup quickly and take Barnes starting spot at right tackle.

Raiders’ new offensive coordinator Al Saunders is perhaps best known for his work with receivers. If the Raiders can pass block, Saunders will make sure the receivers are in position to make a play.

 

How Will the Raiders Adjust to the Loss of Nnamdi Asomugha?

Nnamdi Asomugha took his talents out of Oakland this offseason. The Raiders now will attempt to make up for the loss of one of the best players in the league.
Out is Asomugha, in comes former starter Chris Johnson. Johnson isn’t a terrible starter and the Raiders look adequate with Stanford Routt and Chris Johnson on either side. The problem comes is one of depth.

The Raiders have rookies Demarcus Van Dyke, Chimdi Chekwa and former UFL player Joe Porter.

One of Van Dyke, Chekwa or Porter will be the Raiders primary slot cornerback. Van Dyke has potential, but is rather green when it comes to his technique. He must learn on the fly and learn quickly how to be an NFL corner or Raiders opponents will spread the Raiders out and target him.

The other likely scenario is Michael Huff playing slot cornerback and Chekwa playing free safety. Huff filled in as the nickel corner at times last season and had success. He’ll continue this role until the Van Dyke is ready.

It’s not likely the Raiders will play a lot of zone this season, but expect more zone than in past years. Al Davis is comfortable with Chuck Bresnahan and one benefit to it is Bresnahan knows how far he can stretch Davis when it comes to zone coverage.

A bit of zone coverage may ultimately help the Raiders safeties. Tyvon Branch has been criticized for his coverage the past couple years and that has been a question with Mike Mitchell and Jerome Boyd as well. Michael Huff is on the other end of the spectrum.

Again, don’t expect a lot of zone, but a little more zone coverage and blitzing may ease some of the pressure on the secondary redirecting it the Raiders strong front seven.

 

Run DMC, Pound the Bush, Taiwan on Track, Reece a Piece

The Raiders running game can’t get much better than it was in 2011. The offensive line needs to block, but appears as strong as 2010 or better. So the pressure will be the backs to be productive.
Darren McFadden remains the pack leader. The Raiders will continue to put him in positions to be successful. He’ll carry the bulk of the load and is also a receiving threat. Michael Bush remains the change of pace back. He’s not really a bruiser as he is made out to be, but he is a big man that is surprising fluid and always seems to chew up positive yardage.

The new weapon the Raiders have is rookie Taiwan Jones. He might be one of the fastest players in the league. An odd build for a running back and prone to injuries so the Raiders will use him to return kicks and implement special packages designed to get Jones in space. He may not get a lot of carries this season, but he will be exciting to watch when he does. Jones is a home run threat; the Raiders will use him to swing for the fences.

Marcel Reece will remain a big part of the offense. With weapons all over the field it is hard to redirect much attention to Reece. He’s a receiving threat first and foremost and fast enough to gain yards after catch. Reece needs to continue to improve his pass blocking to stay on the field. Part of the reason the Raiders kept four tight ends was because of the injury to Kevin Boss, the other was because rookie Richard Gordon may translate his blocking skills to be a blocking fullback.

 

Young Receivers Primed For Breakout?

It is the third season for Darrius Heyward-Bey. It’s now or never for the much maligned Raiders first rounder. It’s also the pivotal third season for Louis Murphy. Is he any better than a number two? Jacoby Ford, is he another Steve Smith or will he regress in his sophomore year?

DHB and Murphy should be hitting their stride as professionals this season. Ford should be progressing towards it. Hopefully Al Saunders influence can thrust these receivers’ careers forward.

One way the Raiders may help Heyward-Bey is by having him run shorter routes where he doesn’t have to go up to battle for the ball. He’ll be forced to make a quick catch and run.

Much celebrated rookie Denarius Moore will figure into the mix and the Raiders are looking for big things out of Moore. That leaves the much less explosive Derek Hagan and the oft-injured Chaz Schilens to round out the group. How much production the Raiders get from these veterans will be important to passing production on third down.

Nick Miller finishes up the group, but should mostly be used as a punt returner this season. If he doesn’t win the punt return job he likely will not stick around for long.

 

Jason Campbell Must Lead The Way

No excuses for Campbell will be made. He must lead the Raiders this season. Gone is the safety net of Bruce Gradkowski when Campbell played poorly. Campbell seems more than capable when given time, so the Raiders must give him time.

One problem Campbell has yet to correct is his rollout from center on pass plays. Certainly defenses have spotted this on tape and will continue to exploit his problem. More time in the pocket means more comfort for Jason Campbell.

The moment Jason Campbell stops tipping pass plays will be the same day the Raiders give him enough time to throw. Campbell has a longer than normal delivery and he needs the extra time to properly deliver the ball.

If the Raiders can pass block more effectively and Campbell can correct his rolling start the Raiders passing game could really take flight.

No one wants to see Kyle Boller starting for the Raiders. Even worse would be Shane Lechler or Terrelle Pryor. So the Raiders must give Campbell time and he must be smart and avoid preventable injuries.

 

How Do They Finish?

There are just too many problems to confidently say the Raiders are a playoff team. With a tough schedule and the unknowns the Raiders will have their struggles this season.

8-8, +-2 wins. The Raiders could gel and win 10 with corrections to the major trouble areas or regress and have great difficulty winning six. Hue Jackson talks a good game and handles Al Davis well, but Davis is much more difficult boss when the Raiders aren’t winning.

The first four games will be a barometer for the Raiders. If the Raiders start 1-3, perhaps six wins is in their future. If they go 3-1, maybe they can get to 10. A 2-2 start might just mean another .500 season.

20 Bold Predictions 2011

 Posted by at 11:48 AM  1 Response »
Sep 072011
 

What can you expect of the Raiders this season? More on that in the season preview later this week. This is about bold predictions. We will revist them at the end of the season and see how we did. I try to keep this as positive as possible so this is going to have a homer-like vibe to it. Just know, this is bold predictions. Hitting on 1/3 of them is probably an excellent hit rate, like baseball.

1. Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

2. Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

3. Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

4. Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

5. Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

6. Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

7. Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

8. Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

9. The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

10. The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

11. The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

12. The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

13. The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

14. The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

15. The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

16. Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

17. Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

18. Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

19. The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

20. Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

 

 

Raiders Served ‘Vanilla’ This Preseason

 Posted by at 7:30 AM  8 Responses »
Sep 062011
 

Remember the dumb brother from the movie “Corky Romano”? Trying to order rum raisin nut, rocky road, then pistachio. The guy keeps telling him we only have the three flavors on the sign; Vanilla, Chocolate, Strawberry. That’s what Hue Jackson has served us this pre-season, a big cup of vanilla-flavored offense. Which is perfectly fine, he gets to see what the players can execute and at the same time doesn’t expose too much to other teams.

Insert one Chuck Bresnahan. The old/new defensive coordinator re-hired by Al Davis in the off-season. When he was initially brought in his role on the staff was not given, was he the linebackers coach? This leads one to believe Al had someone else in mind that he wasn’t able to land for the position of defensive coordinator. So after a week or so the Raiders quietly named Chuck the coordinator and everyone said “oh….”.

Bresnahan went into this preseason with a defense who just lost its biggest name, Nnamdi Asomugha. His goal, to develop the already in place young talent the Raiders had collected in the previous years. And to do it with a familiar style, one he was a part of for 5 years under the Gruden era. How’s that vanilla ice cream tasting? The Raiders wrapped up the pre-season 32nd in total defense. 30th against the pass, 28th against the run. Maybe most disturbing is that they finished 28th in sacks with 5. Yep, 5 sacks in  four games.

This from a defensive pass rush that was supposed to be the strength of the defense. After watching the games a few times I don’t think I have ever witnessed worse line stunts. It’s almost as if Bresnahan designed the stunts to go through the same gaps. Now, this might be player execution, but let me remind you this is the same defensive line that finished last pre-season 3rd overall with 13 sacks. They also were 8th in total yards.

Bresnahan also hasn’t seemed to solve the Raiders problem of giving up the back-breaking 3rd and long conversion. Look at this sequence to open the Seahawks game: 1st play they line up in the base press man, Huff continues to show his more physical aggressive play and blows up the run off right. 2nd play its the same formation and Huff and Shaughnessy blow up the run off left. Everything’s looking good right? Finally, the Raiders D is starting to look normal. Then, Bresnahan blitzes Kamerion Wimbley, Rolando McClain and Stevie Brown. Wait, what? Stevie Brown? Result is a screen pass converts the 3rd and 15 for Seattle.

I watched that play at least 10 times, McClain was slow in shooting his gap, and Stevie Brown didn’t seem to notice how Leon Washington let him run by him. Stevie Brown made a name for himself last pre-season by having a ‘nose’ for the ball and being a playmaker in the defensive backfield. He hasn’t shown anything that warrants him being sent on a blitz. Not after Michael Huff had just blown up the first 2 plays.

Last year the Bresnahan lead defense of the Florida Tuskers lead the UFL in sacks. Impressive? Maybe, only problem is that league has rules against more than 6 guys rushing the passer and has to have 4 down lineman on all plays. Now it is just pre-season and Chuck might not be wanting to show anything to the league, but the lack of timely blitzing that has seemed to work for every other team so far is unsettling. More vanilla anyone?

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