Sep 022011
 

It’s been a good run, even if it ends this year. No one has been better at predicting the 53-man roster for the past few years. My not-so-humble brag will ultimately make this prediction terrible, but I’ve got to make it anyway.

 

Quarterbacks (3+1)

Jason Campbell

Kyle Boller

Trent Edwards

Terrelle Pryor (roster exemption while he is suspended)

 

Running backs (5)

Darren McFadden

Michael Bush

Taiwan Jones

Rock Cartwright

Marcel Reece

 

Receivers (6)

Darrius Heyward Bey

Jacoby Ford

Louis Murphy

Denarius Moore

Chaz Schilens

Derek Hagan

 

Tight Ends (3)

Kevin Boss

Brandon Myers

David Ausberry

 

Offensive Tackles (4)

Jared Veldheer

Stephon Heyer

Khalif Barnes

Joseph Barksdale

 

Offensive Guards (3)

Stefen Wisniewski

Cooper Carlisle

Bruce Campbell

 

Center (1)

Samson Satele

 

Defensive Tackles (4)

Richard Seymour

Tommy Kelly

John Henderson

Desmond Bryant

 

Defensive Ends (4)

Lamarr Houston

Matt Shaughnessy

Trevor Scott

Jarvis Moss

 

Linebackers (6)

Rolando McClain

Kamerion Wimbley

Quentin Groves

Darryl Blackstock

Jeremy Leman

Sam Williams

 

Safties (5)

Michael Huff

Tyvon Branch

Mike Mitchell

Chimdi Chekwa

Stevie Brown

 

Cornerbacks (6)

Stanford Routt

Chris Johnson

Demarcus Van Dyke

Lito Sheppard

Walter McFadden

Jeremy Ware

 

Specialists (3)

Sebastian Janikowski

Shane Lechler

Jon Condo

Aug 282011
 

It was 2009 the last time the Raiders played the Saints in the preseason. The New Orleans Saints were still the “Aints” and the Raiders were a team headed into the Tom Cable era without a true identity.

That game-also in Oakland and the third preseason game-was a 45-7 shellacking at the hands of the eventual Super Bowl Champion Saints. The Raiders would win five games, none by more than four points.

Preseason is usually a time to evaluate individual performances over team performance, but the first half of the third preseason game is the closest we will get to predicting how a team might play during the regular season. The coaches scheme a bit and the starters play at least a full half.

Let’s take a look at third preseason games over the past few years.

2007 first-half score Rams 3 @ Raiders 17.

Rams would finish 3-13. The Raiders would finish 4-12

If it had been any other team besides the Rams, would the Raiders have even won? Both teams were terrible in 2007 and the fact that the Raiders didn’t blow out the Rams was a sign of things to come for both teams.

2008 Cardinals 3 @ Raiders 0

The Cardinals would finish 9-7 and go one to appear and lose in the Super Bowl. The Raiders finish the season 5-11.

This demonstrates how bad the Raiders offense was in 2008. Although the score was close in the first half, the Cardinals would blow the Raiders backups away in the second half and win 24-0. Kurt Warner attempted just four passes and he was the key for the Cardinals run to the playoffs.

In 2009 it was the aforementioned Saints blowout in week three. The halftime score was Saints 31, Raiders 0. Saints win Super Bowl. Raiders finish 5-11. The Raiders don’t want to repeat this performance.

2010 49ers 17, Raiders 14

The 49ers would win six games, the Raiders eight. It was a sign of just how mediocre both teams were in 2010. Did the Raiders have their moments? Absolutely, but everyone could see how mediocre the 49ers were and the Raiders couldn’t put them away at home during the preseason and later turned in a hapless performance in San Francisco during the regular season.

One theme was apparent in just about all of these games. The Raiders could not stop the run and aside from the 2010, the Raiders could not score. Hue Jackson may have solved the offensive woes and if the Raiders can pass more effectively in 2011, they should be more consistent offensively as well.

The questions still remain: Can the Raiders stop the run? Can the Raiders pass protect? Can the Raiders contend for the playoffs?

Those questions may just be answered tonight at O.co Coliseum in Oakland.

Place your attention squarely in the trenches and leave them there for this game only straying to see how the young corners are doing against Drew Brees.

Offensive Line:

Stefen Wisniewski may win a starting job at left guard instead of center. Samson Satele has played well and Daniel Loper has played terribly so this is a logical move for the Raiders. Pay close attention to how the rookie handles playing guard with the first team.

Bruce Campbell needs to shine brightly tonight to have any chance of supplanting Cooper Carlisle as the starter at right guard. Carlisle has looked solid enough to hold off Campbell so far, but if and when Campbell learns leverage he may get his chance.

The Raiders also haven’t settled on the starter at right tackle. Stephon Heyer is the favorite, but he needs to continue to play well. The Raiders have started using Khalif Barnes as a sixth offensive lineman again, a sign that he may no longer be in the running to start, but will almost assuredly be on the roster. Rookie Joseph Barksdale needs to impress, but is likely headed for a reserve role in his first season. Still, things can change rapidly, pay close attention to who is lining up with the first team.

The Saints are commonly known for their prolific passing game with Drew Brees. This is a very important game for the Raiders young secondary.

The nickel corner job is still very much up for grabs, the Raiders didn’t bring in Lito Sheppard last week for no reason.

Sheppard will not play, so that leaves the young quadruplet Demarcus Van Dyke, Chimdi Chekwa, Walter McFadden and Jeremy Ware to battle for jobs.

The young group will need to hold down a very skilled set of receivers and an elite quarterback. No small task. Sterling Moore figures into the mix as well.

Quentin Groves. Is this guy really a starting linebacker? Will the Raiders rush out to sign a linebacker once players start being cut? Groves needs to show up and prove that the Raiders don’t need to worry about adding depth. The Raiders do need to add linebacker depth whether Groves plays well or not, but Groves can put their mind at ease.

Pressure Brees. The Raiders have a dizzying array of pass rushers. Put the pressure on Brees to give the young secondary a chance.

Have fun watching Taiwan Jones in the second half. He has special speed. If he gets loose he could go for a long one.

Players to watch: Stefen Wisniewski, Quentin Groves, Bruce Campbell

Positions to watch: Offensive line, cornerback

Score prediction: Saints 21, Raiders 17 at the end of the first half.

Aug 242011
 

Per Jaz Glazer of Fox Sports, Kirk Morrison has signed with the Buffalo Bills. If the Raiders wanted to bring in a linebacker, they are down to Lofa Tatupu as the only remaining serviceable option.

The Raiders were already thin at linebacker before losing Travis Goethel for the season to a knee injury.

Behind starters Kamerion Wimbley, Rolando McClain and Quentin Groves the Raiders have Sam Williams, Darryl Blackstock, Bruce Davis II, Bani Gbdayu and Chris Francis.

That’s an extremely thin group of linebackers and the Raiders will be looking at cuts around the league to shore up the group.

Aug 122011
 

Everyone likes to win, but this is preseason. It’s the first preseason game of a year which features very little practice time beforehand.

It’s far too early to jump to conclusions about the season or any one player. It doesn’t mean that there is nothing to learn from the game.

Highs

1. The defensive line looks even more dominant than they did last year. Matt Shaughnessy looks poised for breakout year. They held up on the goal line.

2. The passing game looks ready to take the next step. Darrius Heyward-Bey, Denarius Moore and Kevin Boss all looked the part. Moore got snaps with the first team and made the most of them.

Heyward-Bey made a hands catch and then beat a defender deep only to have Jason Campbell under-throw him. Even Kyle Boller and Trent Edwards looked to be effectively orchestrating the passing offense. David Ausberry looks like he could become something special and a weapon in the receiving game.

3. The offensive line blocked reasonably well. A pleasant surprise. Sacks and pressure mostly came as a result of blitzes, something you aren’t really planning for in preseason games.

First team offensive line (left to right): Jared Veldheer, Daniel Loper, Samson Satele, Cooper Carisle, Khalif Barnes.

Second team: Stephon Heyer, Alex Parsons, Stefen Wisniewski, Roy Schuening, Joseph Barksdale

4. Depth players who looked good last night include Sterling Moore, who made a play, which echos what we have been hearing about him in camp. Chances are improving that he will make the roster. Tommie Hill was consistently getting a good push.

5. Jarvis Moss looks like he is in great shape. He’s motivated and he’s energetic on defense. He could become a key player this season if he continues to play with as much speed and strength as he did last night.

Lows

1. Depth in the secondary. After the starters left the game it got ugly. Walter McFadden looked the worst and was picked on repeatedly by the opposing quarterbacks. Jeremy Ware was not exposed in coverage, but could have made a play on the game-winning touchdown catch and run and didn’t. Stevie Brown didn’t even look good, missing the defender completely on an open-field tackle attempt.

Demarcus Van Dyke started strong by blanketing Larry Fitzgerald early. Fitzgerald still made a long reception over Van Dyke, but his coverage was good. He struggled with the backups. He was stiff-armed by Beanie Wells and was beat for a touchdown reception. He needs to bulk up and his speed will not benefit him if he isn’t within five yards. It looked worse than it was for Van Dyke, but he certainly has a steep learning curve.

2. An announced crowd under 30,000 means the Raiders will have a hard time selling out games. On any given week the Raiders will have to sell more individual game tickets than they have season ticket holders. The two for one offer starting August 15th will help, but it’s a steep hill to climb to avoid blackouts.

3. Not much depth at outside linebacker. Travis Goethel may end up sliding outside when the season moves closer, even though his best fit is in the middle. Goethel reminds me of Greg Biekert. Quentin Groves was playing with third and fourth string players and you almost couldn’t tell. Besides those three players there isn’t much depth. None of the backups stood out from the crowd. Raiders are rumored to still be interested in Lofa Tatupu. I’m not sure he can play outside, but he’s a quality option.

4. Mental errors killed the Raiders. Khalif Barnes had three false starts. That’s going to cost him snaps and could cost him his job. Trent Edwards had a delay of game penalty after a penalty. Reading Hue Jackson’s lips on the sideline: “You can’t do that! Come on!”

Blows

1. Hiram Eugene dislocated his hip. It’s a season ending injury. The same injury ended Bo Jackson’s career when the injury caused a subsequent conditions that resulted in loss of blood flow.

2. Chaz Schilens hurt his knee. Enough said.

3. Many Raiders players tweeted post game that the team had “a lot” of injuries. We’ll find out who had “nicks” when Hue Jackson talks to the press at 5 p.m.

Plenty of things to correct for Hue Jackson, sadly most of it will be on the back of Chuck Bresnahan. It only took one game for fans to lament his bend, don’t break defense.

 

Dec 122010
 

No one runs the ball better than the Raiders, except the Chiefs. Remember that line from week nine?

In week 14, it could be rephrased. No one runs the ball better than the Raiders, except the Chiefs and Jaguars.

The Raiders and Jaguars are surprisingly in the thick of the playoff run. Both teams are largely reliant on the running game to generate offensive production. The two ground games will battle at EverBank Field today, looking to make a statement about their playoffs chances.

Maurice Jones-Drew is rolling and the Raiders front seven must do what it takes to keep him contained.

On offense, the Raiders must get their own ground game going as the entire offense flows from a healthy running game,

The run game aspect of this match up has been publicized, but how hard is it to stop Jones-Drew and how hard is it to run on the Jaguars?

During Jones-Drew’s streak, five 100-yard games, he’s faced the Cowboys, Texans, Browns, Giants and Titans.

Team Run Defense vs, Jones-Drew
Dallas Cowboys 107.8 yards per game (14) vs. Jones-Drew 135 yards (5.0 avg)
Houston Texans 101.4 ypg (10) vs. Jones-Drew 100 yards (4.2 avg)
Cleveland Browns 119.1 (20) vs Jones-Drew 133 yards (5.8)
New York Giants 98.0 ypg (7) vs. Jones Drew 113 (5.4)
Tennessee Titans 120.6 (21) vs. Jones-Drew 186 yards (6.0)
Oakland Raiders 124.3 (23) vs Jones-Drew

Based upon Jones-Drew’s last five games, you would expect 148 rushing yards against the Raiders. He is tough and he has been particularly tough on teams with unfavorable statistics against the run. The Raiders are the worst run defense the Jaguars will have played during Jones-Drew’s streak.

It’s a tall order for the Raiders, but can they rise to the occasion? In week nine, the Raiders held the Chiefs to 104 rushing yards, limiting Jamaal Charles to 53 yards and Thomas Jones to 32 yards. The Raiders are capable, but this is a cross country road game against on the premier running backs in the NFL. This could be the biggest test for the run defense this season.

The other question is: Can the Raiders run it against the Jaguars?

The Jaguars run defense has surrendered 109.5 yards per game (17). While this is par for the course, the Jaguars have been stopping the run much better in the second half.

Arian Foster, 56 yards. Peyton Hillis 48 yards, Chris Johnson, 53 yards. Their only hiccup against the run came against the Giants with Brandon Jacobs 87 yards and Ahmad Bradshaw 49 yards totaling 136 yards in their only loss since week seven in Kansas City.

What about Kansas City, could the Jaguars stop the Chiefs ground game? Not exactly. Thomas Jones went for 125 and a touchdown, Jamaal Charles added 71 a touchdown and Dexter McCluster and Jackie Battle added 40 more and a touchdown. The Jaguars allowed 236 yards and three touchdowns that day.

If you examine the rest if the Jaguars schedule, you will see plenty of sub-par run offenses.

Denver in week one, San Diego in week two, Indianapolis in week four, Buffalo in week five, and Dallas in week eight.

Oddly, the Jaguars recent surge against the run has come against teams much higher up the list.

Theory is Jaguars can key on one runner, but have trouble with two-back systems. With the exception of Dallas in the final days of the Wade Phillips era, this holds true.

New York Giants have a two-back system. Kansas City has a two-back system. Philadelphia has McCoy and Vick and rushed for a 5.0 yard average.

Tennessee, Cleveland, Houston? All one lead runner.

Add Peyton Hillis. 95 yards receiving against the Jaguars and the shine comes off this defense a little. Could it be the Jaguars might be allowing fewer yards because teams game plan to pass the ball on the 27th ranked pass defense?

The Raiders have chance for another good game on the ground and it’s vitally important for the Raiders to run. The Raiders have won only two games without a 100 yard rusher, last week in San Diego was one example, but Darren McFadden had 97 yards and Michael Bush had 95 yards. The only other example was against Kansas City, but McFadden and Bush combined for 106 yards and the game required some late heroics in the passing game by rookie Jacoby Ford.

Jacksonville is basically the same team on the ground. During the first half, Jones-Drew struggled to get going. Not coincidentally when he did rush for more than 100 yards, the Jaguars won. The only loss in a game where Jones-Drew went for over 100 yards was against the Giants in New York.

He’s come close to or had over 100 yards in the Jaguars seven wins. The exception might be the game against Buffalo, Jones-Drew rushed for 84 yards, but Deji Karim added 70 and receiver Mike Thomas added 53.

The Jaguars are a running team. The Raiders are certainly capable of stopping the run, but it requires the big boys up front to do the dirty work.

John Henderson, Quentin Groves and Khalif Barnes are ready to square off against Kirk Morrison and Slade Norris.

Both teams will be guided to a win by the running game, it’s just a matter of which run defense shows up.