Preview Week 17: Must Win

 Posted by at 8:53 AM  No Responses »
Jan 012012
 

When the Raiders exit the field Sunday, there are three possible scenarios for the Raiders: Division Champs, Wildcard winners, or out of the playoffs.

The Raiders could be division champions with a win and the Chiefs can beat the Broncos, the Raiders could be wild card winner with a win, Bengals loss and either a Jets win or Titans loss. The last scenario is one no Raider fan wants to think about, the Raiders lose or the Broncos and Bengals both win.

It’s been a very up and down season and the Raiders must win and get a little help to get into the playoffs for the first time since 2002. Perhaps it is fitting that the Raiders would let the possibility of a playoff berth come down to the final game. The Raiders have seemingly given opponent after opponent the opportunity to win the game, if only a few took advantage of the opportunity. The primary issue has been a porous defense, but the Raiders defense played one of their best games of the season in San Diego a few short weeks ago and San Diego is the opponent in week 17.

What does it all mean for Sunday? Not much. It’s a one game season for the Raiders  and  we’ll find out how deep the Raiders can dig to get a win and if the defense can put together a complete game. If they can it may boost the Raiders should they make the playoffs.

When the Raiders have the ball:

The last time the Raiders faced the Chargers Michael Bush had a day to remember with 157 rushing yards, 85 receiving yards and 1 touchdown. In the Raiders week 10 win Denarius Moore came up big with 123 yards and two touchdowns. Ford added a 41-yard catch and Darrius Heyward-Bey, the team’s leading receiver, didn’t catch a single pass.

Ford was injured in the game against San Diego and has missed the last six weeks with a foot injury. Ford is ready to go and Carson Palmer has his top three receiving options healthy for the first time since the last game in San Diego six week ago. Palmer almost tossed 300 in San Diego without Ford and with Heyward-Bey as a no-show and should be even better with more options.

Bush’s effectiveness can open up the passing game for the Raiders by keeping the pass rush from coming hard after Carson Palmer. Palmer is a different quarterback when pressured and it is vital to keep the pass rush from getting to Palmer if he is to make good decisions with the football.

The Raiders will attempt to pound the football once again and hope that it opens up the deep passing game. If the Raiders can’t get the run going early expect them to turn to the short passing game with Heyward-Bey and screens and reverses to Moore or Ford.

Hue Jackson needs this win and he will empty the playbook. Expect the Raiders to showcase their speed and continue to be aggressive even when the situation calls for conservatism.

As with any game, it all starts in the trenches. The Raiders offensive line opens holes for Bush or gives Palmer time to throw. Failure on these objectives will prove fatal for the Raiders playoff chances.

Jacoby Ford vs. Dante Hughes

The Raiders get on of the Ferrari’s back and will immediately try to exploit the Chargers sub-standard group of cornerbacks. If the Raiders put Ford in the slot he’ll likely draw Chargers third corner Dante Hughes. Hughes has just three passes defended on the year and this should be a matchup the Raiders try to exploit. If Ford goes outside, expect Hughes to draw Moore instead.

Denarius Moore vs. Quentin Jammer

In their first match-up of the season Moore get the best of the veteran corner Jammer. Raiders will continue to pick on Jammer as along as Moore is getting deep releases. If the Chargers give Jammer help over the top with the strong safety Steve Gregory the Raiders will run Kevin Boss down the seam. With the Raiders offensive weapons expanding the Chargers will have to pick a poison and Moore killed them in week 10.

Darrius Heyward-Bey vs Antoine Cason

It’s a bit abnormal for three of these match-ups to be receivers versus cornerbacks, but with a full air arsenal at his disposal expect Hue Jackson to make good use of his options. With Ford’s return and Moore’s big game against the Chargers it would be easy to forget about the Raiders most productive receiver and consistent receiver this season. Heyward-Bey is a move the chains receiver that has enough speed to turn mistakes into scores. Cason is the Chargers best cornerback and has really played well the second half of this season. Over the top help is also good with Eric Weddle patrolling. If the Raiders want to get Heyward-Bey involved they may put him in the slot and have Ford run off the coverage to the outside.

Jared Veldheer vs Antwan Barnes

In the first meeting between these two teams Antwan Barnes was the only player applying consistent pressure of Palmer on only 15 pass rushing snaps. It’s up to Veldheer to keep Barnes away from the Palmer. The Chargers have only recently discovered Barnes talent as a pass rush specialist and he’ll now rush the passer 20-25 times a game.

Michael Bush vs. Shaun Phillips

There is occasionally a linebacker that does it all. That’s Shaun Phillips. He can fill the run, rush the passer and, when needed, drop back into coverage with almost equal effectiveness. Although he’s not fantastic at anything he is good at everything. The Raiders might want to think twice before running screens to his side and getting a seal block on Phillips is a must if the Raiders intend to run in his direction. If Bush can slip past Phillips in the passing game that might be the best way to exploit Phillips. Either way, if Bush has a good day on the ground or through the air, he’ll need to go through Phillips at least half the time.

Samson Satele vs. Antonio Garay

It’s a story that’s been told over and over again over the past few seasons. Samson Satele can struggle a bit with nose tackles, but in normal Satele form, he’s gotten better and better as the season has progressed and has turned in solid performances over the last five weeks. It’s Garay who can eat up blockers and apply the most effective type of pressure, that is pressure right up the middle. Garay exploited Stefen Wisniewski in week 10 when pass rushing, but it was Wisniewski pushing Garay around in the running game. For the Raiders run game and pass game to be effective it starts in the middle with Satele. The more Satele can handle Garay on his own the more that frees up the guards get second-level blocks on the Chargers linebackers.

When the Chargers have the ball:

The Raiders blanketed Vincent Jackson in the first meeting and limited him. It was Vincent Brown who became the go-to receiver for Phillip Rivers. Ryan Mathews is questionable, and the Chargers haven’t fielded a good running game in many weeks. No, the Chargers will again attempt to sling the ball around. That’s good news for the Raiders pass rushing defensive line. If the Raiders can cover the Chargers receivers long enough to pressure Rivers they will win the game. If the pass rush doesn’t get to Rivers quick enough that could give the Chargers big receivers opportunities.

Expect the Raiders to pressure the Chargers receivers at the line of scrimmage and attempt to tie up the receivers long enough to get pressure on Rivers. None of the Chargers receivers have elite speed so there is little risk of the receivers running past the coverage. Should the pass rush fail to get to Rivers there will be a lot of pressure on the Raiders safeties to provide help over the top.

Stanford Routt vs. Vincent Jackson

Routt 1 vs Jackson 0. The re-match does not always go the same way. Routt limited Jackson for most of the game in week 10. Routt has been good in coverage, he’s playing just a bit too physical and has been on the bad end of a few pass interference and defensive holding calls. The Chargers may to exploit Routt’s aggressiveness, so it is vital Routt whips his head around to find the ball. He might have opportunities to get interceptions if he can read and react to the ball in flight. He’s been getting called for hand checks lately as a direct result of his inability to find the ball in the air. Jackson was limited in practice all week until Friday. He’s probable, but a late scratch wouldn’t be surprising with Jackson headed for free agency and facing a tough match-up.

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Jared Gaither

Wimbley terrorized the Chargers in week 10 with 4 sacks, 3 hits and 7 more pressures on Rivers. Wimbley is coming off one of his worst games of the season and he may draw a more difficult match-up this time around. Gaither was picked up off the scrap heap and is starting at left tackle for the Chargers. Gaither was not signed by the Raiders in training camp when all signs pointed to it. He caught on with KC, but was hardly playing. The Chargers in need of help on the offensive line picked him up and he’s started and played remarkably well the past four weeks. Wimbley has the talent to beat a tackle like Gaither, but it’s one of the most interesting match-ups of the day.

Richard Seymour vs. Louis Vasquez

He’s big mean and nasty and as long as he isn’t committing stupid penalties he’s one of the top defensive tackle in the game. He’s the defacto leader of the Raiders defense and the defense goes as Seymour goes. So Seymour must go against Vasquez. Vasquez was having a solid season, but he’s fallen off lately. Enter Seymour. If Seymour draws a double team the Raiders to his left and right, being Lamarr Houston and Tommy Kelly need to make the most of their one-on-ones. Seymour doesn’t need 3 sacks to be successful, but the defensive line goes as Seymour goes. It’s a big game.

Michael Huff vs. The Field

Huff is used in many ways and he’s coming back from injury. The Raiders can surely use him against all the Chargers receiving weapons. It will be Huff’s job to fill in as a slot corner and help over the top. He’ll have considerable pressure on him in this game and let’s hope he makes the best of it.

If the Raiders want to win and make the playoffs it is these three highly paid defensive players that need to shine. Routt, Wimbley, Seymour and Huff were handed sizable contracts in the offseason and this is where contracts and careers are made. Crunch time for these defensive players.

Prediction:

Chargers playing spoiler and Raiders with everything to lose. The Raiders are at home and the coliseum will be rocking like it hasn’t since 2002. Raiders win this one, somehow, someway, but will it be enough?

 

Week 15 Preview: Effort & Efficiency

 Posted by at 12:55 PM  No Responses »
Dec 182011
 

Two weeks ago headed into the game against Miami the Raiders were leading the AFC West and coming off three straight victories. Two weeks later the season is on the line. Thanks to Timothy Tebow in Denver and two horrible losses in a row, the Raiders are in must-win mode. Unfortunately for the Raiders the opponent this week needs a win just as badly. The Lions look and play like a playoff team. The Raiders haven’t played like a playoff team in many weeks. What do the Raiders need to do to win? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

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When the Raiders have the ball:

The Lions are nearly as suspect against the run as the Raiders surrendering 5.1 yards per carry this season to the Raiders 5.2 and 5 yards less per game than the Raiders atrocious run defense. The Raiders will attempt to run on the Lions and keep Carson Palmer from hurting the Raiders with costly turnovers. The Lions secondary have proven themselves to be ball hawks and they will force Carson Palmer into a turnover if the Raiders can’t keep the Lions honest by running the ball.

Raiders OL vs. Lions DL

The Lions defensive line is much like the Raiders defensive line. It looks great on paper, but the production hasn’t matched the reputation. Khalif Barnes versus the Lions 9-sack defensive end Cliff Avril. If Barnes continues his streak of below average play Avril will harass Carson Palmer. If the Raiders intend to keep Palmer from making mistakes they need to keep the pressure out of his face. Jared Veldheer draws a match up against veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch and his 7 sacks. Vanden Bosch is the type of end that Veldheer has been struggling with. Vanden Bosch will combine power and a quick first step that Veldheer has been struggling to deal with. In the middle Cooper Carlisle draws a well rested Ndamukong Suh who served a two game suspension for stomping a Packers offensive lineman. That leaves Stefen Wisniewski and Samson Satele to block Corey Williams.

If the Raiders fall behind and the Lions are able to turn their defensive line loose on the Raiders offensive line things could get ugly. The Raiders offensive line needs to push around the Lions defensive front in the run game and get Michael Bush through cleanly and let him do his work the Lions linebackers and secondary.

Carson Palmer vs. Carson Palmer

Palmer needs to get back to basics. The Raiders are good enough and Palmer is good enough to score points when they aren’t turning the ball over. Palmer has made several inexplicable decisions over the past few weeks and has been making fundamental errors. IF Palmer can clean up his game and avoid making mistakes the Raiders should at least be able to stay in the game. Palmer will hope the Raiders ride Bush hard this week and that should open up things for Palmer in the passing game.

When the Lions have the ball:

Richard Seymour has disappeared from games for several weeks and it prompted a meeting with Hue Jackson this week. Expect Seymour to respond. The Raiders must pressure Matthew Stafford and force him to make mistakes. The Lions are a passing team, but become infinitely more potent offensively when Kevin Smith is  slashing through defenses. The Lions have weapons all over the field. Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew round out the group. The Raiders will need to pressure Stafford into mistakes, if he gets it into the hands of his playmakers the Raiders will be in trouble.

Richard Seymour vs. Stephen Peterman

The Raiders need big game from their defensive leader. Seymour ignites the rest of the defensive line and when he is getting pressure up the middle things up outside for Kamerion Wimbley. It’s a must for Seymour to physically dominate Peterman. The Lions offensive line is prone to giving up pressure and Peterman is the no exception.

Rolando McClain vs. Kevin Smith

Smith is a slasher that thrives on bouncing things outside and getting yards from draws and cutbacks. If Rolando McClain diagnoses plays quickly he can take the Lions rush out of the game. Stafford can catch fire if he has time and the rushing game will help his offensive line tremendously. The Raiders must limit Smith and McClain’s job is to make sure the Raiders have gap integrity, himself included.

Stanford Routt vs. Calvin Johnson

Routt has been playing relatively well. He’s limiting the opponents top receiving option and will need to do so again on Sunday. Forcing Stafford to consider his other option is a win for the Raiders defense and it will be on Routt to make sure Johnson isn’t getting into a groove with Stafford.

Raiders Win If…

1. Raiders give a total effort
2. Raiders protect the ball
3. Raiders force turnovers
4. Raiders stop the run

Raiders Lose If…

1. Raiders do not maintain gap integrity in the running game
2. Raiders turn the ball over more than once
3. Raiders fall behind early
4. Raiders commit more penalties than the  Lions

Studs and Duds From Week 14

 Posted by at 2:12 PM  No Responses »
Dec 142011
 

Surely in a blowout loss there were more duds than studs. I suppose a stud is relative to the play of the rest of the team when the score is 147-14. A few players did have nice days and the rest didn’t. There were probably more duds than I can list, so the duds this week are the “Death Ro” of duds.

STUDS

Desmond Bryant

He’s earning himself more playing time each week. With the way Richard Seymour is playing and with John Henderson banged up he might just earn more time at defensive tackle as well as defensive end.

Stefen Wisniewski

Towards the end of the game the Raiders sat the Wiz kid down. I guess the coaching staff realized that he was the only solid offensive lineman and gave him a rest. He was very good pass blocking and did a solid job run blocking for Bush. He was particularly good at getting to the linebacker. Some may argue Wisniewski is better suited to play center, but until Stephon Heyer or Joseph Barksdale play well enough to slide Wisniewski over he’ll be at left guard.

Mike Mitchell

He makes this list because his primary assignment was Jermichael Finley and Finley didn’t catch a pass. He also made a nice interception.

DUDS

Rolando McClain

Sure he had two sacks and a safety. On those plays Ryan Grant had some of the worst blocking you will ever see and both were basically in garbage time. McClain’s poor gap discipline and diagnosis of plays hasn’t improved and may actually be regressing. The Raiders defense looked confused and out of sync. So much for the thought that McClain was better strictly because the defense would be on the same page.

Carson Palmer

Throw off back foot, interception. Throw into 5 on 1 coverage, interception. Lock onto receiver on short slant, interception. Palmer had about every issue a QB can have on Sunday. The trade is looking bad…really bad. When is Jason Campbell going to be back? Palmer takes more risks and that can work when the team has playmakers on offense. With the pedestrian group of offensive players healthy it’s extremely dangerous in a bad way. Palmer must play smarter and get to his second and third reads. His mechanics have also been sloppy and he doesn’t have enough arm strength to throw off his back foot.

Richard Seymour

If he isn’t healthy he shouldn’t be on the field. He was totally incapable of pushing anyone around for the past couple weeks. The pass rush has been steady from the outside, but the push the Raiders normally get up the middle has evaporated at the same rate as Seymour’s play. He sure doesn’t look like he is worth the contract he was given. Everyone wants to pinpoint Routt as a the man being most overpaid on the Raiders defense, but a case can certainly be made for Seymour.

Khalif Barnes

He struggles pass blocking and his skills in that area contributed to at least two of Palmer’s interceptions on Sunday. He’s the weakest link on the offensive line and the Raiders have to decide if they couldn’t get equal play out of Joseph Barksdale, Stephon Heyer or Bruce Campbell. Based on his play he can almost be on the duds list every week and it is time the Raiders moved him back into an extra blocker role.

Marion Barber

His dud status on Sunday reached Bill Buckner level when he handed the game to the Broncos and put the Raiders a game down in the division with only three to play.

Studs & Duds From Week 13

 Posted by at 1:13 AM  1 Response »
Dec 082011
 

It was such a painful football game to watch a second time that it took three days to get entirely through it. Searching for answers to what happened in Miami, I put some extra focus on finding the performers and pretenders this week, so let’s take a look.

STUDS

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Magnificent day from the Raiders’ breakout receiver. No he didn’t have great yardage numbers or multiple touchdowns, but he was the only offensive weapon the Raiders had on Sunday. He had 21 yards taken away from him via holding penalty on the offensive line and made a highlight one-handed touchdown grab. Knowing how far his team was behind, Heyward-Bey flipped the ball to the official. There would be no celebration of his second touchdown catch of the season.

Stefen Wisniewski

The rookie has a rough game last week and although the rest of the offensive line crumbled around him he stayed strong. It wasn’t a great performance, but no other Raiders seems to qualify for studs this week.

Stanford Routt

Wasn’t allowing anything through the air. No major errors supporting the run. He had a nice day and the Dolphins had to get Brandon Marshall into coverage against someone else. He needs to turn in more of these performances and hopefully his teammates will rise to the occasion and make a stop when the defense starts ignoring his coverage responsibility.

DUDS

Aaron Curry

Love his energy on the football field, but he was lost in coverage and lost against the run. Save a big hit his day was a total waste. With Rolando McClain sitting out many reps due to so little practice time, Curry was calling plays and the difference showed up in the Raiders’ game and Curry’s performance as well.

Jared Veldheer

Two weeks ago Veldheer was getting mentioned as a probowl candidate. That was two weeks ago before being smoked by Julius Pepper and Cameron Wake. He’s playing with really poor balance and defenders have learned how to get inside of him. Wake moved Veldheer around on Sunday with relative ease. Raiders desperately need a rebound from their young left tackle.

Richard Seymour

If you hadn’t realized Seymour was playing last Sunday until he was ejected no one would blame you. Seymour and the rest of the front seven were handled by the Miami offensive line. Absolutely no pass rush and the run defense was porous once again. The Raiders need more from Seymour, much more if they are to make a legitimate playoff push.

Carson Palmer

Even when he was completing throws the receiver they had to adjust significantly to it. His throws were off. The pressure really gets to Palmer. A few adjustments and many of his receptions could have been bigger than they are. He made some throws in garbage time that makes me think

 

Week 13 Preview: Sling It

 Posted by at 9:44 AM  No Responses »
Dec 042011
 

The Raiders land in Miami to face a rejuvenated Dolphins team. It was a few short weeks ago Tony Sparano was on the chopping block. Now, after winning three of the last four, Sparano’s team looks to play spoiler in the AFC. The Dolphins are finding out what they have in quarterback Matt Moore, the defense is playing well and Reggie Bush may be relevant once again.

It was a week full of distraction for the 7-4 Raiders and perhaps that wasn’t a bad thing. The focus could have been on how the Raiders are still unable to get three offensive playmakers on the field. Jacoby Ford Denarius Moore and Darren McFadden remain out of action. Tommy Kelly did not participate in practice and is questionable with toe injury.

There is good news for the Raiders, they get back veteran corner Chris Johnson and Richard Seymour is getting healthy. The offense has been able to manage without Ford, Moore and McFadden, but the defense has been patchy and can use all the help they can get.

The Dolphins are surprising evenly matched with the Raiders and the game could come down to turnovers and special teams play or a defensive score.

Offense

The Dolphins defense is averaging less than 100 yards allowed on the ground. That’s bad news for Michael Bush. The good news for the Raiders is that the Dolphins have been vulnerable through the air.

Palmer is capable and if he can limit mistakes could have a big day ahead of him. The Raiders should use play action early and as the Dolphins’ linebackers will attempt to fill the run. Expect a couple deep shots and for the Raiders to utilize Marcel Reece and more three and four receiver sets than usual to force the Dolphins to take a linebacker off the field. Any of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy or Chaz Schilens could be in for big days.

In the run game, the Raiders could choose to spread the Dolphins out or focus on zone blocking to setup the passing game in the redzone. The zone running style suits Michael Bush and could help the offensive line recover from the physical domination the Bears laid on them last week. Bush is at his best running north and south and the Raiders will try slip Bush past the line and take their chances with Bush against smaller players.

Jared Veldheer draws a matchup against Cameron Wake. Another tough battle for the Raiders young left tackle. After a string a good games, Julius Peppers got the best of him, but don’t expect that to continue, Peppers, when he wants to, can get after the best. Expect Veldheer to handle Wake and keep him away from Palmer most of the day. Samson Satele has a tall order in front of him in Paul Soliai. Every 3-4 defense needs a good nose tackle and that has been Satele’s weakness for years. If the Raiders are able to run, it will be because of the play of Satele.

Defense

The Dolphins have found a rejuvenated passing game behind Matt Moore and the Raiders are still struggling to collect themselves on defense. Richard Seymour has been nursing a sore knee but it is healing. If Reggie Bush splits wide the Raiders will cover him with a safety such as Mike Mitchell or Michael Huff.

Brandon Marshall is the biggest weapon and one that must be handled for the Raiders to have a good day. Stanford Routt shadowed Vincent Jackson against the Chargers only for Vincent Brown to have a monster day. The Dolphins flank Marshall with Brian Hartline. Hartline is certainly capable of doing damage, but he’s hardly the jump-ball threat that Vincent Brown is.

Lamaar Houston has had a good season and that should continue today. The Dolphins offensive line has weaknesses and Houston can exploit them along with his part-time defensive end friend Kamerion Wimbley. Marc Colombo can be beat and Jake Long has taken steps back this season. The Raiders will attack the edge and hope to pressure Matt Moore into mistakes.

Houston could also see time inside at defensive tackle with Tommy Kelly’s status in doubt due to a toe injury.

As has been the key for the Raiders, the linebackers must step up and stop the run to allow the big men up front to rush the passer. That’s the Raiders game.

Special Teams

Special teams could be the difference between a win and a loss between two surprisingly evenly matched teams. Coverage units need to keep Clyde Gates from getting his feet moving in the return game. Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler need only to continue to do their thing.

X-Factor

 

Would be easy to say turnovers. The team with more usually wins, particularly when the teams are so evenly matched. Perhaps more important for the Raiders to covert in the redzone and score touchdowns. Carson Palmer, Michael Bush and the rest of the offense have struggled punching the ball into the redzone. The Raiders need to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns and not just field goals.

By The Numbers

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