Week 11 Defensive Preview: Focus is on the Linebackers

 Posted by at 4:20 PM  2 Responses »
Nov 182011
 

The 2011 Minnesota Viking Offense is very similar to the offense of the 2009 Oakland Raiders. Both of these offenses featured young developing quarterbacks and potentially game braking running backs. The Raiders won five games during the 2009 season. With the season more than halfway over Minnesota is 2-7, so finishing with a five-win season is a realistic goal for them. As a result, both of these offenses relayed on a strong running game to alleviate their ineptness in the passing game.

For the Vikings to be successful they have to get Adrian Peterson going. Peterson has earned the right to be regarded as the best running back in the NFL. The Raiders defense has contain him and remain disciplined. To be successful, the Vikings must take advantage when the Raiders defense plays undisciplined or gets too aggressive. Look for Christian Ponder to try to expose the Raiders’ linebackers in pass coverage and take try to connect with Percy Harvin when he is lined up against Demarcas Van Dyke or Lito Shepperd. The pressure is on the Raiders front seven to play with enough aggression to keep Peterson in check and simultaneously maintain gap discipline. The result of the game will hinge on the leadership and play of Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain.

Match-ups

Adrian Peterson vs. Rolando McClain

The Raiders have an inconsistent rush defense, that performs well in wins and abysmal in losses. As the quarterback of the defense, it is easy to criticize McClain, but he does deserve some praise. With Minnesota having an inept passing game, the pressure will be on McClain to lead the troops and to keep Peterson from taking over the game.

Aaron Curry vs. Christian Ponder

The Raiders play a lot of nickel, so Curry is on the field in less than ideal situations. Even though Curry is getting better in passing situations, he still remains a liability in coverage. If Ponder is to make Minnesota’s passing game respectable, a great place to start would be throwing to the target closest to Curry.

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Charlie Johnson

Wimbley has been getting after the opposing quarterback all season and finally cashed in with four sacks last week. Johnson and the Vikings offensive line have given up 25 sacks, contrast that with the Raiders giving up 11 sacks. It doesn’t help having a developing rookie as quarterback. If the Vikings are to convert third downs and sustain drives they will need good protection and that starts with containing Wimbley.

X-Factor

Richard Seymour

The Raiders defense could easily dominate the game. If they do, it is because they consistently stuffed the run and put Ponder in long down and distance situations. If the Raiders defense dominates the line of scrimmage it is because their defensive line, led by , is getting consistent penetration. Barring a systemic defense collapse the Raiders should win this game. If a collapse occurs, it is because their defensive captain, Seymour, played undisciplined and received multiple penalties.

Prediction

Raiders 20, Vikings 13

The Raiders defense will not fall apart, but the game will stay close. Hue Jackson will use the pass to set up the run as Palmer picks apart Minnesota’s injured and helpless secondary.

Hue-yuck!

 Posted by at 10:33 PM  9 Responses »
Nov 062011
 

Hue Jackson essentially benched Darrius Heyward-Bey, the team’s most productive receiver, in favor freshly signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh and rookie Denarius Moore. Moore’s production has dipped since taking over punt return duties and was targeted on three of the six interceptions against the Chiefs and another one Sunday against the Broncos. Benching a guy just starting to get confidence is terrible mistake if he is to be part of the Raiders future. Al Davis wouldn’t have let this happen and by pulling this move Jackson is essentially urinating on whatever legacy Al Davis left behind.

Houshmandzadeh hasn’t played a down in months and he gets more action than your top receiver? Palmer is paid to throw the receivers on the roster. Houshmandzadeh was not a terrible sign, but it’s subtraction by addition if he plays more than your top receiver. The only valid reason to bench Heyward-Bey was for discipline reasons. By all accounts Heyward-Bey is a model teammate.

Jackson has no one to contest his authority and the rookie head coach is full of himself. He is accountable to no one on the moves he makes. He has more power than any coach in the league right now. Carson Palmer, Houshmandzadeh, and Aaron Curry moves are prime examples. Quickly out were Al Davis’ pet projects on defense Joe Porter and Bruce Davis Jr. Louis Murphy has been shoved aside and now Heyward-Bey. When does someone chew Hue Jackson out? Even a good CEO has to answer to the board of directors. Jackson will soon be answering to boos of the home crowd.

Kevin Boss. Not the boss lately. He’s not starting and hardly playing. Why would you throw all kinds of money at a tight end and then not use him when the team is trying to break in a new starting quarterback? It doesn’t make a lot of sense for Hue Jackson to turn to Brandon Myers over Kevin Boss, yet that’s what he is doing. Boss needs to be more involved going forward.

From too cute to too conservative. Jackson gets predictable the offensive series after a turnover. Never would he have given Jason Campbell the ability to audible as much as Palmer did on Sunday, so the excuse that he was easing Palmer into the offense rings hollow.  Run, run, incomplete pass, punt after the second interception. Carson Palmer made a few laser throws that saved the Raiders and Jackson’s play calling on more than one occasion. Why not go for it on fourth and one with the game on the line? Do you not have faith in your offensive line and Michael Bush? Hue punted and turned the ball over to his defense. The defense keeps letting him down.

That brings us to Chuck Bresnahan. Read option. The team swears they practiced to stop it all week. Bresnahan couldn’t get his players to execute his game plan or the plan to stop a college offensive scheme was terrible. Either issue reflects poorly on Bresnahan’s skill as a defensive coordinator. This wasn’t the Patriots offense. This was Tim Tebow. The Raiders continue to get exposed on defense against the run and pass. The Raiders couldn’t stop Tebow and let him get the edge on multiple occasions. The secondary seems lost in zone coverage and blown assignments resulted in two touchdown passes. The Broncos rushed for some ungodly amount of yards because the linebackers didn’t fill the right holes. It’s pathetic how many points the Raiders are allowing. The Raiders have the players to be way better than they have been on defense.

Mental penalties. Hue Jackson swears he is focusing on getting the penalty issue fixed, but it is getting ridiculous how many stupid penalties the Raiders are committing. The problem is particularly bad on defense. The message is not getting through. It’s a culture problem. Hue’s needs to hold players accountable, but his discipline is either non-existent, toothless or the players don’t have respect for him. It doesn’t really matter which problem, they are all cause of great concern. Hue himself is not being held accountable for two pathetic losses to division teams at home in front of sold out crowds and it’s about time someone tore into Hue Jackson.

Richard Seymour continues to be the biggest offender when it comes to mental penalties and yet remains a team captain. Jackson has allowed Seymour’s mentality to rub off on the rest of the team. While some if this is a good thing, the bad has also made itself known in terms on mental penalties. Hue’s mistake is allowing Seymour to remain a captain when he isn’t acting like one. At very least the Hue Jackson needs make an example of Seymour. Stripping him of his captain title wouldn’t be a bad idea if he doesn’t respond. We should probably already be to that point.

Special teams have saved the Raiders a few times, but not lately. Punt coverage has been terrible and Denarius Moore hasn’t a clue how to return a punt. Penalties finding their way into this unit as well. John Fassel isn’t getting the job done. How many years do we blame poor special teams on the players and not the coach?

Al Davis liked a football team that played with aggression, but does a face-mask penalty when the player is stacked up or a late push out-of-bounds or slamming a quarterback to the ground, or tossing a ball into the air or running into the punter help you win the game? Certainly not. That’s a recipe to Just Lose, Baby! and that’s just what Hue Jackson has done since Al Davis passed away.

The rookie coach may have made the right moves while playing GM, but he’s doing so at the detriment of learning how to coach a winning team. Fix the penalties Hue and get rid of the deadbeat coaches before Mark Davis and Amy Trask start thinking the problem is you.

Week 9 Preview: Matchups To Watch

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Nov 062011
 

Hue Jackson vs. Hue Jackson

This is the most important matchup of the game. Jackson made himself look foolish with the Raiders quarterback situation two weeks ago and Kyle Boller and Carson Palmer combined to throw six interceptions. Jackson will be walking a fine line this Sunday. He has to balance his aggressive tendencies, Carson Palmer’s effectiveness and game management. The play calling has to vary enough to keep the passing game respectable without putting Palmer in a position to fail. Jackson has to remember that the opposing team has one of the worst quarterbacks and will struggle to be productive. If the Raiders lose this game it is because Jackson failed.

Carson Palmer vs. Carson Palmer

Palmer will make his starting quarterback debut this Sunday vs. Denver. To lead the Raiders to victory this Sunday, Palmer has to be more of a game manager than anything else. Rather than making plays that lead his team to victory, Palmer has to avoid plays that give away the game. This is not the game for Palmer to prove to everybody how comfortable he is in the offense. It’s the game for him to relay on passing outlets, work play action and find out what works. A multiple interception game by Palmer could make this game closer than the Raiders are comfortable with.

Michael Bush vs. Denver’s Front Seven

Carrying the load last game Bush finished with 99 yards. With McFadden officially out for this game, this is another opportunity for Bush to showcase his talents and to show everybody why he deserves a big contract in the offseason. To do this, Bush has to get the tough rushing yards when Denver’s front seven is expecting the run. Bush will also be relied upon as a passing outlet and to pick up blitzes in the passing game. Denver boasts a mediocre rush defense but has not let a back get 100 yards since McFadden put up 150 in week one. Wesley Woodyard, Denver’s leading tackler, will be all over the place trying to ensure the trend continues. This is an opportunity for Bush to showcase himself for the big contract.

Jared Veldheer/ Kalif Barnes vs. Von Miller

There are reasons why Miller is a leading candidate for defensive rookie of the year. He is in the top 10 in the league with 6 sacks and is fourth on his team in total tackles. With Palmer making his first start, the Broncos will likely test how he directs the lines protection and handles varied pressure. Veldheer and Barnes have to make sure this rookie does not consistently get to Palmer. The real test will be on third and longs, where the Raiders choose to pass and Miller is set in pass rushing mode.

Kevin Boss/ Brandon Myers vs. Denver Defense

The Raider tight ends will be needed to run block and provide support against Denver’s outside pass rush. So far this season, the success of McFadden and the wide outs have overshadowed Boss’ lack of productivity in the passing game. As Palmer is adjusting Boss and Myers need to become more reliable passing options. Boss needs to make big plays when Denver loads the box to stop the run. Denver has allowed two tight end touchdowns over the past two weeks. Either Boss will make an impact and reach the end zone or he will disappear.The Raider need Boss to have a good game on Sunday.

Tim Tebow vs. Chuck Bresnahan

The Raiders linebackers are better blitzing than in coverage. Chuck Bresnanhan’s safeties are effective blitzers and Tebow can’t stay composed in the face of blitzes. Expect Bresnahan to blitz Tebow as his inability to stay composed is undermining any effort of his to become a legitimate NFL quarterback. For Tebow not to be too embarrassed this Sunday, he needs to establish his mobility as a weapon and count on various screen plays and check downs. With inadequate wide receivers and his quarterback skills, Tebow must rely on his legs to make plays. The Raiders D has to make sure they get sacks on Tebow and not let him escape their blitzes.

Knowshon Moreno & Willis McGahee vs. Richard Seymour & Aaron Curry

McGahee when healthy is showing that he still has fuel and could very well eclipse the 1,000 mark for the first
time since 2007. He has three 100-yard games this season but is coming off a broken hand. He will likely play and get the majority of the carries. Seymour sets the tone for the entire defense. When he plays with the right amount of aggression and discipline, the Raiders defense is one of the league’s best. McGahee and Moreno have combined for 20 catches and 2 touchdowns this season and pose a threat coming out of the backfield. As Tebow struggles finding targets downfield, expect him to look to these back. Curry has historically struggled in pass coverage, but so far with the Raiders, this has not been a problem. Look for McGahee and Moreno to test Curry in pass coverage.

Eric Decker vs. DeMarcus Van Dyke

Decker is the bright spot in Denver’s largely inept passing attack. He has 30 catches, three more than DHB and is tied for fourth in the NFL with 5 touchdowns receptions. He has potential and his ability made Denver comfortable trading Brandon Lloyd. If Tebow has success connecting with any of Denver’s wide receivers it is Decker. The Raiders won’t shadow Decker. Expect, Tebow to try to connect with Decker when he is lined up against Van Dyke. Van Dyke is experiencing ups and down during his rookie year but is progressing. Look for Van Dyke to be tested often and for him to have his hands on the ball.

Prediction:

Expect a somewhat conservative Hue Jackson game plan, one that features Michael Bush and has a few wrinkles. The only good thing about Tebow’s performance will be his 50+ yard rushing effort. Oakland 20, Denver 13.

Raiders’ Week 9 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 9:21 AM  No Responses »
Nov 052011
 

Quarterback

This position, in regards to Fantasy, is less of a crap shoot than it was two weeks ago, but there’s still no way to confidently say play Palmer over other QBs in the NFL. Palmer’s play against the Chiefs was not an indication of his future play because he was unprepared and didn’t have his go-to: Darren McFadden. He was just trying to clean up Boller’s mess. This week he still won’t have McFadden, but he will have T.J. “Who’s-Yo-Mama” Houshmandzadeh with whom he practiced during his “retirement.” Housh will give Palmer a reliable target that he’s comfortable with and can go to on third downs, or any other down for that matter. It would irresponsible to give a definitive “go!” for starting Palmer on your team this week. On the bright side, Tebow will make him look like a pro-bowler again.

Running Back

All of you who have been reaping the benefits of McFadden’s success have probably been drinking yourself to sleep after seeing him leave practice in a boot. Leave the kool-aid alone though because he’ll be back. Until then you can play Michael Bush and/or Taiwan Jones. While neither will get tons of yards, they’ll still get decent numbers, especially Bush. Palmer may go more to the air since he’s got his training-mate on the team now, but the Raiders’ success has been built on the run. Luckily, the Broncos will be unprepared since it’s unclear if the game will be more passing or rushing. Play Bush, he should get 20 carries. The key to winning with regard to your Fantasy team is just remembering to sit McFadden and play someone who will actually run.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey is the only receiver worth owning in terms of fantasy production. The addition of Houshmandzadeh to the mix really muddies the water for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore. If you’ve been stashing Moore this year, it’s OK to cut him loose now unless you are in a keeper league. Houshmandzadeh was quoted saying that there are a lot of fast guys on the team but they’re not as polished as route-runners. While he is definitely positioning himself within the team, there is a morsel of truth to that. Moore and Ford stretches the field in a way they play and cannot be counted on for consistent production. Coming off a bye, we’re hoping that DHB has built some sort of rapport with Palmer and he is proving doubters wrong. Right now he is considered to be a low-end WR2 and strong WR3.

Tight End

Kevin Boss can make a sneaky play this week for owners truly desperate for a TE. Oakland is squaring off against a Broncos defense who have been pretty stout thus far to opposing tight ends, but coming off a bye, the Raiders could play at a maximum effort to keep pace in the AFC West. The addition of Houshmandzadeh definitely hurts his value, as they both operate in the middle of the field. Boss is definitely a player worth keeping an eye on to see how Carson Palmer utilizes him.

Kicker

Sebastian Janikowski hasn’t been able to practice this week and Dave Rayner may get the call again. Avoid this situation if you can. Some strong plays this week include Matt Bryant who is squaring off against the Colts indoors.

Defense/Special Teams

While the Raiders defense has ranked towards the bottom in most statistical categories this year, this is a defense with value this week vs. Tim Tebow. The Raiders defense has played better than their stats suggests with Richard Seymour leading the way. Tebow is turnover prone and he is susceptible to the pass rush. Seymour alone could match his season sack total of five in this game, to double his output for the season. And yeah, I don’t need to tell you that Ford is returning kicks for this game. It’s added incentive for you to play them this week.

Week 9 Preview: Tebow & Palmer Do Battle

 Posted by at 4:17 PM  No Responses »
Nov 042011
 

Both Tim Tebow and Carson Palmer are coming off performances they would love to forget.  After orchestrating a heroic comeback against Miami, Tebow fell flat at home against Detroit, while Carson’s last outing resulted in 3 interceptions in one half of football.

For Palmer, the Raiders bye was anything but an “off week” as he spent some of the mandatory off days gaining chemistry with receivers Jacoby Ford and Darius Heyward-Bey.

“There’s no comparison to last week…I’m comfortable with the entire playbook.  I’m comfortable with the guys,” Palmer said.

The Raiders added to Palmer’s familiarity by signing veteran free agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmanzadeh.  Houshmandzadeh will help out in the slot. He’s a big body that’s not afraid of contact and can go over the middle.  Palmer and Houshmandzadeh played together in Cincinnati and worked out together last summer.  Palmer will look for his safety blanket primarily on third downs.

Perhaps the definition of “Tebowing” should be changed to throwing the ball 10 yards behind a receiver, because that’s all Tim Tebow was doing Sunday against the Lions.  Tebow held the ball in the pocket for too long and the result was 7 sacks.  He was a dismal 18 of 39 passing and some of those throws weren’t even close.  The euphoria in Denver around Tebow is quickly evaporating. Doubt has grown in Denver all week about his ability to play the position at a pro level.

 

OFFENSE

The Raiders will be without Darren McFadden, who suffered a sprain in his foot early on in Week 7.  With the big match-up against San Diego looming next Thursday night, its best to rest him this week and get him as close to 100% as possible for the Chargers.

The Raiders are lucky to have a player of Michael Bush’s caliber as their backup running-back. He is not McFadden, but Bush would probably be the starter on 15 other NFL teams.  Bush should touch the ball at least 20 times, with change-of-pace Taiwan Jones getting more of a load this week.

Much of the Raiders’ success the rest of the way will fall on the arm of Carson Palmer.  He needs to show off the arm strength observers believe he has lost.  Now that Palmer is familiar with the playbook and the stable of young athletic receivers, he should have a good day against a less than stalwart Broncos defense.  Houshmanzadeh will make his Raider debut and it will be interesting to see if the chemistry he has with Palmer will carry over.

You usually don’t mention a kicker when breaking down the offensive keys for a football game, but Sebastian Janikowski is a weapon.  He will test his hamstring on Friday and Saturday. Dave Rayner’s cell number being is on speed dial in case he can’t go.

X-Factor – Marcel Reece, Fullback

The Raiders finally had a healthy Reece in practice this week.  Reece not only is a reliable blocking fullback, he is a special talent catching balls out of the backfield.  Screen plays, quick angle and flat patterns; his hands and athleticism are rivaled by few, if any, at that position.  Manase Tonga and Richard Gordon filled in admirably in his absence, but there is no replacing this special player.

 

DEFENSE

 Chuck Bresnahan is salivating at the chance to spring his defense loose on struggling quarterback Tim Tebow.  The only way Tebow will be able to hurt the Raiders is with his legs by turning broken plays into positive yards.  The Raiders will most likely continue to blitz, but I think you won’t see it as much this week.  The defense will force Tebow to make his reads and make the accurate throw in coverage, something he was unable to do last weekend against Detroit.  The Broncos offensive line has struggled for much of the year, so expect the Raiders big boys up front to be a major factor.

Denver running back Willis McGahee was limited in practice with a broken hand and is questionable for Sunday.  He has three 100-yard rushing games since he took over as the starting role in Week 2 and is enjoying a healthy 4.5 yards a carry.  The Raiders will predictably key on the Broncos ground game and force Tebow to make them pay through the air.

X-Factor – Richard Seymour, Defensive Tackle

The anchor on the Raiders defensive line had a great Week 1 performance against the Broncos, registering two sacks on Kyle Orton.  The Lions took down Tebow 7 times last week. Expect number 92 to be a frequent presence in the Denver backfield all afternoon.

Prediction: The Raiders were embarrassed by Kansas City at home in a loss much too reminiscent of the dark years between 2002-2010.  The Raiders have a great opportunity to get back in the win column against a struggling Broncos team.  Expect Palmer to play better (he can’t do any worse) than last week. The Raiders should be 5-3 heading into San Diego.

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