Flight Risk: Raiders’ Free Agents Ready to Hit the Open Market

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Mar 092012
 

Free agency starts Monday and the Raiders are still hacking away at troublesome contracts to get under the salary cap. Once the Raiders are comfortably under the salary cap they will turn their attention to signing free agents.

It wouldn’t be uncommon for a team to end up signing the majority of their own free agents, but this is no ordinary year in Oakland. Reggie McKenzie will try to re-shape the roster and the fringe-roster players could all be seeking employment on Monday.

Some Raiders’ free agents will be retained and others will be boarding flights to different cities in 201

 

QB Jason Campbell

Odds he leaves in free agency: 96%

Campbell is a classy player that understands the business side of the game. He didn’t make any noise when he was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski and he stuck around to support the team even though the Raiders had moved on from him last season.

Despite the bonds Campbell forged in Oakland, he’ll be boarding a flight for a new city in 2012. Where will depend on who wins the Peyton Manning sweepstakes and which teams rolls the dice on Matt Flynn.

Teams that need a quarterback include, Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Arizona, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Jacksonville.

Campbell may find it difficult to find a starting job in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he wont select a team where his odds of starting are increased.

Denver would be an interesting location for Campbell. Tebow’s success appears unsustainable and they don’t have much behind him. Unless the Dolphins lose

 

QB Kyle Boller

Odds he leaves in free agency: 100%

Boller will be hard-pressed to find a job as a second or third quarterback and it’s probably close to the end of the line for Boller.

 

RB Michael Bush

Odds he leaves in free agency: 90%

The Franchise Tag was given to Tyvon Branch, leaving Michael Bush to test the waters of free agency.

While the Raiders might want Bush to return, there will be teams calling that are willing to offer Bush much more than the Raiders will be able to offer.

The Bengals find themselves looking for a starting runningback for the first time in many years. Cedric Benson fizzled out as a starter and the Bengals will be looking for a back to pair with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Bengals can find more balance offensively if they sign a legitimate starter and Bush has proven valuable and durable as the backup in Oakland. Potential fit.

 

RB Rock Cartwright

Odds he leaves in free agency: 25%

Cartwright was the Raiders’ special teams captain in 2012 and will come cheaply. Expect the Raiders to keep Cartwright around in 2012, but he wont be a top priority. He’s expressed a desire to stay with the Raiders and the Raiders will eventually return the favor.

 

WR Chaz Schilens

Odds he leaves in free agency: 85%

Vincent Jackson is ready to find a new team and that leaves a hole at receiver in San Diego. The Chargers rarely open up the bank for a free agent, so Schilens potential and affordability make Schilens an interesting target for the Chargers.

Schilens is familiar with San Diego having gone to college at San Diego State and he’s a native of southern California.

The Chargers have seen enough of Schilens to know he has talent, but not so close that they realize that he’s been healthy for one year of his career.

 

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

No one wanted him seven games into the 2011 season before Carson Palmer and Hue Jackson called. He didn’t do much with his time catching 11 passes for 146 yards in nine games.

He’ll file back into the unemployment line and that’s likely where he will remain.

 

C Samson Satele

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Satele will reportedly not be retained by the Raiders. While that’s certainly not a bad move, Satele is cheap and can backup multiple positions on the offensive line. He’ll find a work somewhere.

 

RT Khalif Barnes

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Barnes was not a very good starter at right tackle, but he could be signed to be a backup lineman somewhere in 2012

The Raiders will shift to younger players and/or players that fit the zone-blocking scheme and neither describe Barnes.

 

OL Stephon Heyer

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Heyer was brought in to challenge for a starting job and he never did although one could argue the line played better when he was at left guard and Stefen Wisniewski was at center.

Regardless, Heyer is a free agent and doesn’t fit into the Raiders’ plans to shift to zone-blocking.

 

DE Trevor Scott

Odds he leaves in free agency: 48%

Scott is one player that might benefit from the Raiders new defense and he’ll be inexpensive to retain. It wasn’t long ago when Scott was an up-and-coming pass rusher and that might be enough to intrigue Dennis Allen. Intrigued enough to keep Scott in Oakland?

 

DE Jarvis Moss

Odds he leaves in free agency: 84%

Things didn’t work out for Moss in Denver or Oakland and Moss will be looking for his third team in 2012.

He flashes ability, but he’s far too inconsistent. Gut feeling is Rex Ryan calls and offers Moss a job as a backup with the Jets.

 

LB Ricky Brown

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

He was a player with ties to the organization and Al Davis kept coming back to Brown when he needed him.

Brown will have a tough time finding a team in 2012 and there is a very good chance

 

LB Quentin Groves

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Groves was benched in favor of Aaron Curry mid-season and outside of solid special teams play offered little more than a body for the Raiders defense.

He’ll be in a different uniform in 2012.

 

LB Darryl Blackstock

Odds he leaves in free agency: 95%

He was a special teams player and was familiar with Chuck Bresnahan from his days as a coach for a UFL team. Given Blackstock is affordable and there isn’t much film on the guy, it’s conceivable the Raider will give him the opportunity to earn a roster spot in camp.

 

CB Lito Sheppard

Odds he leaves in free agency: 93%

Veteran cornerbacks that are on the street mid-season aren’t typically the type you want starting down the stretch, but Sheppard is a veteran and he’s smart.

He may be limited more now than he used to be, but he can still be relatively effective as a backup.

 

FS Matt Giordano

Odds he leaves in free agency: 50%

Giordano is familiar with Dennis Allen from his time with the Saints, but it is unknown if Allen has a favorable opinion of Giordano.

Giordano had five interceptions last season playing part-time, but also seemed to shy away from contract and let far too many receivers behind him to feel comfortable with him as anything more than a backup.

SS Jerome Boyd

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Boyd is a fringe roster player and bounced between the practice squad and the active roster. Unless McKenzie and Allen see something in Boyd worth developing they will set their sights on other players.

 

DB Bryan McCann

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Filled in admirably for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore in the return game. He’s a specialist and given his success in that area he could find a home in 2012.

There is an outside chance the Raiders might keep McCann around to limit the wear on the Raiders’ two young receivers.

 

FB Marcel Reece

Odds he leaves in free agency: 0%

As a restricted free agent, if another team wanted to sign Reece they’d have give the Raiders compensation depending on the level of the tender. That’s extremely unlikely and Reece is considered a big part of what the Raiders want to do on offense.

Don’t worry, Reece will be back with the Raiders in 2012.

 

DE Desmond Bryant

Odds he leaves in free agency: 2%

Like Reece, Bryant is a restricted free agent. He’s a great rotational lineman and can play multiple positions on the defensive line.

He’ll undoubtedly be back this season.

Free Agency Primer 2011: Part 1

 Posted by at 4:08 PM  1 Response »
Jul 072011
 

With the end of the lockout in view and free agency on the horizon it is time to review what the Raiders need to do once the NFL opens for business. We start with what the Raiders need to do with their own free agents.

The biggest free agent on the market may be Nnamdi Asomugha. While it is unlikely the Raiders can afford to keep Asomugha, it’s not totally impossible.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Nnamdi Asomugha: <20%

The Raiders face the real possiblity of losing two pieces of their defensive secondary, with Michael Huff poised to also become a free agent. Raiders will wait and see what the market is, but chances are a safety needy team like the Jaguars will bite hard.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Michael Huff: <20%

Charlie Frye as the thrid quarterback. It’s a thankless position and job. Fans would rather have a developmental player, but the coaches like Frye and he will get a chance to be the third quarterback.

Chances Raiders re-sign Charlie Frye: >85%

The Raiders drafted Richard Gordon and brought in a host of other lineman, but who can replace Khalif Barnes as the sixth lineman? He likely sticks.

Chances Khalif Barnes is re-signed: >90%

Sam Williams. Vet minimum. 100%

Robert Gallery, Bruce Gradkowski, Thomas Howard, Johnnie Lee Higgins 0%.

What about Zach Miller? He has been the Raiders most productive receiver for the past three seasons. The Raiders will pay whatever is necessary to retain Miller, but he will have other options.

Zach attack back: >75%

Al Davis and Hue Jackson have hinted that they should have installed Mario Henderson at right tackle earlier. Does that mean he will be back? Probably.

Super? Mario 2: >75%

The drafting of Joseph Barksdale and Henderson’s performance late in the year leaves Langston Walker twisting in the wind, if that’s possible at 350 pounds. He’s a good run blocker and the Raiders have a need for lineman.

Langston Walker Part Trois: <80%

Ricky Brown and Jarvis Moss: >90%

Samson Satele was given a tender, so he may stick, but my gut says he’s let go, backup centers are a dime a dozen. 5%

Everyone’s favorite fullback, Marcel Reece is restricted free agent. 100%

Michael Bush, restricted free agent, given first and third-round tender. 100%

Long Snapper Jon Condo: 100%

Step Up Your Game: Thomas Howard

 Posted by at 6:51 PM  1 Response »
Jul 262010
 

Third in a series analyzing players on the 2010 Raiders that need to step up their game for the Raiders to become a playoff team.

Who Will Cover?

The strength of the starting linebackers in 2009 was certainly their ability to play the pass. Thomas Howard, Kirk Morrison and Ricky Brown were all more adept at playing the pass than they were at playing the run.

(Photo Credit: Jeffrey Beall)

Flash-forward to 2010 and the starting linebackers are Trevor Scott, Rolando McClain and Kamerion Wimbley. Three new linebackers, two pass rushers and one rookie.

The drastic change comes on the heels of yet another poor year stopping the run. While some of that can certainly be placed upon the interior line play, the one constant had been Morrison and Howard. Morrison was shipped out of town, but Howard remains with an uncertain roll.

The Raiders have a totally different question surrounding the linebackers in 2010. Can they cover?

Scott, a converted defensive end, was effective rushing the passer and stopping the run last season, but still has a ways to go in coverage. Wimbley is also playing a new position. The college defensive end turned 3-4 outside linebacker will play the strong-side linebacker position for the Raiders. Coupled with the fact that McClain’s only perceived weakness was playing the pass and the Raiders have completely flipped the position upside down.

Howard finds himself competing for the job as a nickel linebacker. Ricky Brown and Quentin Groves will also figure in, although Groves has similar issues covering the pass. Howard’s struggles were not apparent last season, but the coaches saw enough on film to move him from the weak-side to the strong-side and basically replace him in the offseason.

With the stated liabilities of the other linebackers against the pass, Howard will need to embrace his new role and thrive covering the pass when spelling Scott and Wimbley.

The revamped core of linebackers will need to prove they can cover to stay on the field, while Howard will get on the field for his coverage abilities.

Howard is the rare physical specimen that could force his way into a starter roll if he can stop the run. He will be relied upon to play the pass well.

If Howard steps up his game, he has the potential to make this core of linebackers special. If he doesn’t, there is the potential for the linebackers to be a pass coverage liability.

Step up your game Thomas Howard, the Raiders defense needs you to cover up their liabilities, as they will yours.

A Look At The Raiders Revamped Core of Linebackers

 Posted by at 8:04 PM  No Responses »
May 262010
 

Did the Raiders fix the run defense with the revamping of the linebackers?

It is one of the biggest questions the Raiders will need to answer this offseason.

If so, can the linebackers Trevor Scott, Rolando McClain, and Kamerion Wimbley also cover running backs out of the backfield and tight ends on passing downs?

The Raiders started 2009 with Thomas Howard, Kirk Morrison, and Ricky Brown as the starters. By the end of the year Scott had supplanted Howard on the weak-side and Howard had moved to the strong-side for the injured Ricky Brown.
When Sam Williams and a rookie fifth-round draft pick get meaningful snaps, it is time for an overhaul.
So the Raiders started the overhaul, traded for Wimbley, drafted McClain, and finally traded for Quentin Groves and shipped out Kirk Morrison.

Trevor Scott

Scott developed into a nice linebacker last season, but wasn’t asked to drop into coverage very often. In five games as a linebacker, Scott dropped into pass coverage 65 times. This amounted to about 50 percent of the snaps in which a pass was thrown.

Scott fared pretty well in coverage and earned an overall neutral pass defense grade from profootballfocus.com , but he will need to continue to develop his pass coverage ability if asked to drop into coverage more often.

As a linebacker, Scott had two poor games defending the run, both against prolific rushing teams in Baltimore and Dallas. He will need to show improvement against the elite rushing teams to be anything more than a rush linebacker.

Most of the hope for Scott is pinned on his pass rushing ability. As a linebacker, he recorded four sacks, one quarterback hit, and three quarterback pressures in just five games.

Kamerion Wimbley

Trying to breakdown Wimbley as a strong-side outside linebacker in the 4-3 defense is somewhat difficult. Wimbley played outside linebacker in a 3-4 defense with the Browns.

One area of Wimbley’s game that is better than advertised is his pass coverage. Although Wimbley wasn’t asked to drop into coverage often, he did perform pretty well in coverage with one good game against Chicago and one bad game against Detroit. Wimbley received a neutral grade in the other 14 games.

Pass rush is probably Wimbley’s best attribute, but some statistical oddities popped up in 2009. Wimbley recorded four of his seven sacks on the road to go along with 18 of his 24 quarterback pressures. All of his good performances rushing the passer came on the road and all but one of his bad games came at home.

Wimbley must not like home cooking.

Wimbley will probably rush the passer less in the 4-3 defense and his run defense will be more closely scrutinized.
Examining his run defense grades will reveal five poor performances and three good performances. If this doesn’t get better, the Raiders’ run defense may not be much improved, if at all.
These stats were accumulated in the 3-4 defense so they may mean nothing, but at least it may reveal areas to watch. They come back into play if the Raiders experiment with the 3-4 scheme.

Rolando McClain

All indications point to Rolando McClain being the most premiere middle linebacker to come out of college since Patrick Willis. Willis may have been the slightly higher rated prospect because of his speed, but McClain is no slouch.

McClain’s instincts, leadership, tackling, and knowledge are at an elite level. The only question was his coverage ability.

He proved in college he could cover pretty well in the zone, but struggled at times with speedy man coverage match-ups.

The good news is that it isn’t likely the Raiders will ask McClain to cover man-to-man even on third downs, and his instincts and knowledge should help him to avoid getting beat badly.

Quentin Groves

A disappointment in Jacksonville not because he was horrible, but because he didn’t perform like the player the Jaguars expected after drafting him in the second round of 2008.

He played defensive end for all of 2008 and was moved to linebacker to start 2009, but he was moved back to defensive end halfway through the 2009 season. He may be raw in pass coverage as a linebacker because of his limited experience in that role.

His pass rush skills weren’t up to par in Jacksonville and he didn’t record a sack in 2009. He recorded three in 2008. He did have 13 quarterback pressures in 197 snaps.

Groves has shown potential, having a monster game in 2009 against the Texans at home as a defensive end.

He also isn’t prone to having horrible games, but he isn’t a guy that will make impact plays at this point.

Young enough to still develop; it will be interesting to see how the Raiders decide to use Groves.

Thomas Howard

The question with his game has been run defense, but he was surprisingly decent against the run in 2009 earning a neutral grade by profootballfocus.com . This aligns with most observations. Not good, but not horrible defending the run.

Howard will be used most likely in pass coverage in 2010. Expect Howard to be the primary third-down linebacker in passing situations.

His biggest weakness in 2009 was covering backs as receivers coming out of the backfield and it earned him poor grades in coverage. Darren Sproles, Marion Barber, and Larry Johnson victimized him in the receiving game.
Two of his three bad games against the pass came in the first two weeks, the other coming against Dallas on Thanksgiving.

Removing those three games and Howard had a neutral grade against the pass. He will need to maintain or improve his coverage ability in order to earn defensive snaps.

The Raiders obviously wanted to keep Howard around, having offered him a high tender and opting not to trade him like Morrison.

He will likely battle with Brown for snaps as a situational linebacker.

Ricky Brown

Started 2009 as the starting strong-side linebacker and competing for the middle linebacker position with Morrison in camp. Brown actually showed signs of being a decent linebacker early. An injury derailed his season in Week 5, but for four healthy weeks he had good games against both the run and pass.

He may find himself as the odd man out of the rotation, but he is good enough to stick around and contribute on special teams if he can also stay healthy.