Best Case & Worst Case Scenarios For Each Raiders’ Draft Pick

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  No Responses »
Mar 162012
 

The Raiders aren’t making much noise in free agency and will attempt to build through the draft. Missing are five of their original seven draft selections and in their place are five players that may contribute in 2012.

A couple more selections may be awarded as compensatory selections, but that is yet to be determined.

What is the best case and worse case scenarios for the Raiders’ 2012 draft? Not only does it depend on the players they draft, but how many they draft and how the players perform they obtained for those picks.

 

1st Round: Carson Palmer

Hue Jackson orchestrated a trade that brought Palmer to Oakland. It was too much to give up, but what’s done is done. The Raiders have their franchise quarterback, right? That’s the hope. The new regime is hitching their wagon to Palmer and putting a new offense around him. There wasn’t many other options for the Raiders.

Best Case: Palmer, with an offseason with the receivers and studying the offense, turns in a pro bowl season and leads the Raiders to their first playoff berth since 2002. Winning the AFC championship game would bump the 2013 pick from a second round to a first round pick and further justify why Hue Jackson traded for him.

Worst Case: Palmer continues to be a turnover machine and the Raiders change the offense to the extent that Palmer is handicapped by his weaknesses. Palmer is average, doesn’t lead the Raiders to the playoffs and never justifies even one of the two picks the Raiders gave up for him.

 

2nd Round: Joseph Barksdale and Taiwan Jones

2011 was the rookie year for Barksdale and Jones and neither produced. Jones was injured and never cracked the rotation at running back and Barkdale spent the entire season as a backup. While the Raiders don’t have their second round pick, they do have a two sophomore’s with a year of NFL experience. The Raiders will be counting some development from both players/

Best Case: Barksdale becomes a solid starter on the offensive line and Taiwan Jones becomes a nightmare speed back that is a threat to take the ball the distance every time he touches the ball.

Worst Case: Both wash out. Barksdale never wins a starting job and is eventually released. Jones has problems with injuries and tries to do too much when he gets the ball.

 

3rd Round: Terrelle Pryor & Draft Pick(s)

It should be intriguing how Greg Knapp works Pryor into the rotation at quarterback. Pryor will have to be patient with the Raiders if he wants to play quarterback. The Raiders could work Pryor into special packages and expand his role as he becomes more comfortable in the offense.

In return for losing Nnamdi Asomugha the Raiders should receive a draft pick. It is expected to be a pick in the third round. The Raiders may receive a second pick in the third round as compensation for losing Zach Miller.

Best Case: Pryor becomes a weapon on offense and takes over for Palmer in a couple of years as the starter. The Raiders get two picks and are able to find a quality defender at cornerback and linebacker.

Worst Case: Pryor isn’t ever a starter and can only play in special packages. Pryor is eventually released.The Raiders don’t receive a compensatory pick until the fourth round.

 

4th Round: Draft Pick(s)

The Raiders could receive a couple of compensatory draft picks for Zach Miller and Robert Gallery in the fourth round. The Raiders original pick in this round was traded for Jason Campbell two years ago.

Best Case: Raiders receive an additional pick in the fourth round for Robert Gallery having received two in the third for Asomugha and Miller. The Raiders find a quality lineman.

Worst Case: Raiders receive only one pick and are forced to try to find a player at a position of need, but because it’s the end of the fourth round the quality prospects at linebacker and cornerback are off the board.

 

5th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

With the 13th pick of the fifth round the Raiders will have their first non-compensatory selection of the 2012 draft. An additional compensatory selection is possible at the end of the fifth for Robert Gallery if they are not awarded one in the fourth, but it is also possible the Raiders don’t receive a compensatory for Gallery at all.

Best case: McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a fifth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fourth.

Worst case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders are unable to move the pick. McKenzie drafts his best player available, but the player will be sitting behind established starters for the next several years.

 

6th Round: Original Draft Pick (can be traded)

The Raiders will have the 19th pick in the sixth round. It is one of the Raiders original picks giving the Raiders the option of trading the pick if it benefits them.

Best Case:  McKenzie doesn’t think much value remains on the board worth a sixth and the Raiders, having addressed many needs with their compensatory selections in prior rounds, trade the pick for a future fifth.

Worst Case: Talent has thinned and the Raiders need the pick to find a player to fill out the roster, but McKenzie plays it safe and drafts a role player.

 

7th Round: Aaron Curry

The Raiders traded their seventh-round selection for Aaron Curry last season. Curry and the Raiders had mutual interest in continuing the relationship and worked out a restructured contract in 2012 that saves the Raiders cap space.

Best Case: Curry turns into the pro bowl caliber linebacker he was expected to be when he was drafted out of Wake Forest and solidifies the defense.

Worst Case: Curry remains a liability in coverage and the Raiders have to bring in a player for Curry on third down.

Hue’s Bullies Are Meek In Loss

 Posted by at 12:42 PM  1 Response »
Aug 212011
 

Hue Jackson has been beating a drum this offseason. He wants his team to bully opposing teams. It’s reminiscent of something Mike Singletary would say. Big talk from the coach doesn’t always translate to the team.

On Saturday at Candlestick, the Raiders were bullied. The offensive line couldn’t intimidate a 7-year-old girl. The reserves on the defensive line were pushed around like a grocery cart with a crazy wheel.

It was bad, but it is never as bad as it looks. Particularly when it is the reserves getting pushed around. Next week against a superior Saints team will be the best sampling of the Raiders progress under Jackson. Next week, the starters should play an entire half. Drew Brees will expose any weaknesses on the Raiders defense and Gregg Williams isn’t likely to make it easy for the Raiders defensive line.

The game did highlight some areas of great concern, but there were bright spots early.

 

Studs

Darrius Heyward-Bey – Could he finally be a useful weapon? If he keep catching the ball and getting open like he did Saturday he will have an impact for the first time in his career.

Denarius Moore – Things turn to gold when Moore is around the ball. He has been too good for the Raiders not to keep him in the mix, even if he isn’t announced as a starter.

Kevin Boss – If he stays healthy Raider Nation may forget about Zach Miller. The only issue is that he strained his knee during the game. It’s not a major injury, but the Raiders would like to keep him out of the trainer’s room.

Michael Bush – Aside from one missed blitz pickup, he played well. Bush was picking up extra yards despite an offensive line that was getting very little push. He picked up the blitz well when he got a second chance.

Lamarr Houston – Houston held the edge very well and the 49ers were not picking up big chunks on the ground when Houston was in the game.

Matt Shaughnessey – Did a great job selling his rush and dropping into coverage on a zone blitz. He was rewarded with an interception. He’s definitely a player to watch this season.

 

Duds

Daniel Loper – Gone is Robert Gallery and Loper is the starter at left guard. If you couldn’t figure out why Stefen Wisniewski was getting snaps at left guard we figured it out on Saturday night. Loper was terrible against Ricky Jean Francois. Jean Francois isn’t even a starter and Loper couldn’t block him. I don’t think Loper won as single battle all night. He was bullied by a backup.

Jarvis Moss – He should have a role as a pass rush specialist, but he was consistently losing his contain on the outside. Not only did he lose his contain, but the offensive line was able to manipulate him out of running lanes. Not swag.

Trent Edwards/Kyle Boller – The backup offensive lines fared a little better, but Boller and Edwards were inaccurate at best. Too many bad decisions from the backups.

Reserve DL – Jamie Cumbie, Tommie Hill and Mason Brodine might as well have been a blocking sled.

 

The Sophomore Scene

Walter McFadden – He was beat by Braylon Edwards on a long pass, but it was good coverage. A great throw and great catch. That’s about all we saw of McFadden on the night. Rebound for him.

Bruce Campbell – Plays way too high. His natural strength helps him from looking terrible, but he loses the point of attack battle far too often. Inconsistent at best. Cooper Carlisle doesn’t have much to worry about at the moment.

Jeremy Ware – Aside from one blitz we didn’t see much of Ware in coverage. The 49ers second team was content to run and throw short passes to the flat.

Travis Goethel – The defensive line in front of him was getting thrown around making his performance difficult to evaluate. He’s shown enough in practice and during games that he’s likely to get a shot at outside linebacker once camp breaks.

Rolando McClain – Struggled to get off blocks at times and was slow to read a run near the goal line. Not much to worry about with McClain. He doesn’t make the same mistake twice very often, but does need to keep defenders away from his body.

Jared Veldheer – Allowed a sack. It was pure speed rush and the linebacker went very wide. Veldheer was able to keep him deep, but the linebacker made it around him with excellent bend. Jason Campbell’s first read was not open and he didn’t read it fast enough to avoid the sack.

 

Rookie Report

Demarcus Van Dyke – Played with the starters. On the only play he could be evaluated his footwork and technique was all over the map. He got turned around and allowed an easy reception. Too early to make much of Van Dyke and you can’t put much stock into a single isolated play. He’ll take his lumps as all rookies do.

Stefen Wisniewski – Played consistently as the backup center. Not overly impressive, but didn’t make any glaring mistakes. Samson Satele may have been the most impressive starting offensive lineman which could mean Wisniewski remains a reserve. Snap reaction would be that Wisniewski’s best chance to start could be at left guard.

Chimdi Chekwa – Tight coverage and came up to support the run. It was his first game back and he should continue to get expanded opportunities. Looked solid.

Richard Gordon – For being a blocking specialist he sure did get handled on a couple blocks. He’s probably a safe player to stash on the practice squad.

David Ausberry – Not much action for Ausberry. This happens quite a bit when the team knows what they think of a player. Time to hide him from the film.

Free Agency Primer 2011: Part 1

 Posted by at 4:08 PM  1 Response »
Jul 072011
 

With the end of the lockout in view and free agency on the horizon it is time to review what the Raiders need to do once the NFL opens for business. We start with what the Raiders need to do with their own free agents.

The biggest free agent on the market may be Nnamdi Asomugha. While it is unlikely the Raiders can afford to keep Asomugha, it’s not totally impossible.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Nnamdi Asomugha: <20%

The Raiders face the real possiblity of losing two pieces of their defensive secondary, with Michael Huff poised to also become a free agent. Raiders will wait and see what the market is, but chances are a safety needy team like the Jaguars will bite hard.

Chances the Raiders re-sign Michael Huff: <20%

Charlie Frye as the thrid quarterback. It’s a thankless position and job. Fans would rather have a developmental player, but the coaches like Frye and he will get a chance to be the third quarterback.

Chances Raiders re-sign Charlie Frye: >85%

The Raiders drafted Richard Gordon and brought in a host of other lineman, but who can replace Khalif Barnes as the sixth lineman? He likely sticks.

Chances Khalif Barnes is re-signed: >90%

Sam Williams. Vet minimum. 100%

Robert Gallery, Bruce Gradkowski, Thomas Howard, Johnnie Lee Higgins 0%.

What about Zach Miller? He has been the Raiders most productive receiver for the past three seasons. The Raiders will pay whatever is necessary to retain Miller, but he will have other options.

Zach attack back: >75%

Al Davis and Hue Jackson have hinted that they should have installed Mario Henderson at right tackle earlier. Does that mean he will be back? Probably.

Super? Mario 2: >75%

The drafting of Joseph Barksdale and Henderson’s performance late in the year leaves Langston Walker twisting in the wind, if that’s possible at 350 pounds. He’s a good run blocker and the Raiders have a need for lineman.

Langston Walker Part Trois: <80%

Ricky Brown and Jarvis Moss: >90%

Samson Satele was given a tender, so he may stick, but my gut says he’s let go, backup centers are a dime a dozen. 5%

Everyone’s favorite fullback, Marcel Reece is restricted free agent. 100%

Michael Bush, restricted free agent, given first and third-round tender. 100%

Long Snapper Jon Condo: 100%

Interview on ESPN Radio Honolulu (Audio)

 Posted by at 6:46 AM  No Responses »
Apr 202011
 

ESPN Honolulu was kind enough to have me on Sports Animals. Here is the audio.

Podcast: Embed

Maverick Davis Defies Convention, Again

 Posted by at 3:57 PM  No Responses »
Feb 252011
 

Stanford Routt received a new contract for $31 million over three years with about $10 per year over the first two years. Richard Seymour will be paid in the $12-15 million per year range for the next two years. Kamerion Wimbley will receive a one-year franchise tender around $10 million.

Throw in $8 million to John Henderson and a ham sandwich for Rock Cartwright and you have about $80 million worth of spending on players.

$80 million is a lot of money in a normal NFL off season, but it is even more considering the uncertainty surrounding the CBA.

There are still free agents to be signed too. Nnamdi Asomugha, Michael Bush, Zach Miller, Michael Huff and Robert Gallery are all potentials.

While the Routt contract would seemingly indicate the end of the Nnamdi Asomugha era, don’t be surprised if Al Davis continues to open his wallet for his players, including Asomugha.

Signing players before a new CBA is signed is risky business. The market for players could completely change under terms of the new CBA.

If the labor terms change and the owners get a bigger slice of the revenue pie, the Raiders would have several contracts on the books that were detrimental moving forward. The contracts run for two or three years instead of four to six for this reason.

If however the NFLPA negotiates for a bigger slice of the revenue pie, the contracts Davis has handed out could seem like bargains.

If the NFL adopts an 18-game schedule, the contacts signed prior may be spread out over an additional two games. Two additional games would increase the season length by 12.5%.

Provided the owners were able to realize the extra games as revenue increases, the players are going to ask for some of that revenue to be as part of the cap figure.

While other teams will be forced to renegotiate under the new terms for players, the Raiders have grandfathered these contracts under the prior rules. If the contracts are structured to avoid likely new proration rules under a new CBA, the deals are could be financially sound.

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