Flight Risk: Raiders’ Free Agents Ready to Hit the Open Market

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Mar 092012
 

Free agency starts Monday and the Raiders are still hacking away at troublesome contracts to get under the salary cap. Once the Raiders are comfortably under the salary cap they will turn their attention to signing free agents.

It wouldn’t be uncommon for a team to end up signing the majority of their own free agents, but this is no ordinary year in Oakland. Reggie McKenzie will try to re-shape the roster and the fringe-roster players could all be seeking employment on Monday.

Some Raiders’ free agents will be retained and others will be boarding flights to different cities in 201

 

QB Jason Campbell

Odds he leaves in free agency: 96%

Campbell is a classy player that understands the business side of the game. He didn’t make any noise when he was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski and he stuck around to support the team even though the Raiders had moved on from him last season.

Despite the bonds Campbell forged in Oakland, he’ll be boarding a flight for a new city in 2012. Where will depend on who wins the Peyton Manning sweepstakes and which teams rolls the dice on Matt Flynn.

Teams that need a quarterback include, Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Arizona, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Jacksonville.

Campbell may find it difficult to find a starting job in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he wont select a team where his odds of starting are increased.

Denver would be an interesting location for Campbell. Tebow’s success appears unsustainable and they don’t have much behind him. Unless the Dolphins lose

 

QB Kyle Boller

Odds he leaves in free agency: 100%

Boller will be hard-pressed to find a job as a second or third quarterback and it’s probably close to the end of the line for Boller.

 

RB Michael Bush

Odds he leaves in free agency: 90%

The Franchise Tag was given to Tyvon Branch, leaving Michael Bush to test the waters of free agency.

While the Raiders might want Bush to return, there will be teams calling that are willing to offer Bush much more than the Raiders will be able to offer.

The Bengals find themselves looking for a starting runningback for the first time in many years. Cedric Benson fizzled out as a starter and the Bengals will be looking for a back to pair with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Bengals can find more balance offensively if they sign a legitimate starter and Bush has proven valuable and durable as the backup in Oakland. Potential fit.

 

RB Rock Cartwright

Odds he leaves in free agency: 25%

Cartwright was the Raiders’ special teams captain in 2012 and will come cheaply. Expect the Raiders to keep Cartwright around in 2012, but he wont be a top priority. He’s expressed a desire to stay with the Raiders and the Raiders will eventually return the favor.

 

WR Chaz Schilens

Odds he leaves in free agency: 85%

Vincent Jackson is ready to find a new team and that leaves a hole at receiver in San Diego. The Chargers rarely open up the bank for a free agent, so Schilens potential and affordability make Schilens an interesting target for the Chargers.

Schilens is familiar with San Diego having gone to college at San Diego State and he’s a native of southern California.

The Chargers have seen enough of Schilens to know he has talent, but not so close that they realize that he’s been healthy for one year of his career.

 

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

No one wanted him seven games into the 2011 season before Carson Palmer and Hue Jackson called. He didn’t do much with his time catching 11 passes for 146 yards in nine games.

He’ll file back into the unemployment line and that’s likely where he will remain.

 

C Samson Satele

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Satele will reportedly not be retained by the Raiders. While that’s certainly not a bad move, Satele is cheap and can backup multiple positions on the offensive line. He’ll find a work somewhere.

 

RT Khalif Barnes

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Barnes was not a very good starter at right tackle, but he could be signed to be a backup lineman somewhere in 2012

The Raiders will shift to younger players and/or players that fit the zone-blocking scheme and neither describe Barnes.

 

OL Stephon Heyer

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Heyer was brought in to challenge for a starting job and he never did although one could argue the line played better when he was at left guard and Stefen Wisniewski was at center.

Regardless, Heyer is a free agent and doesn’t fit into the Raiders’ plans to shift to zone-blocking.

 

DE Trevor Scott

Odds he leaves in free agency: 48%

Scott is one player that might benefit from the Raiders new defense and he’ll be inexpensive to retain. It wasn’t long ago when Scott was an up-and-coming pass rusher and that might be enough to intrigue Dennis Allen. Intrigued enough to keep Scott in Oakland?

 

DE Jarvis Moss

Odds he leaves in free agency: 84%

Things didn’t work out for Moss in Denver or Oakland and Moss will be looking for his third team in 2012.

He flashes ability, but he’s far too inconsistent. Gut feeling is Rex Ryan calls and offers Moss a job as a backup with the Jets.

 

LB Ricky Brown

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

He was a player with ties to the organization and Al Davis kept coming back to Brown when he needed him.

Brown will have a tough time finding a team in 2012 and there is a very good chance

 

LB Quentin Groves

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Groves was benched in favor of Aaron Curry mid-season and outside of solid special teams play offered little more than a body for the Raiders defense.

He’ll be in a different uniform in 2012.

 

LB Darryl Blackstock

Odds he leaves in free agency: 95%

He was a special teams player and was familiar with Chuck Bresnahan from his days as a coach for a UFL team. Given Blackstock is affordable and there isn’t much film on the guy, it’s conceivable the Raider will give him the opportunity to earn a roster spot in camp.

 

CB Lito Sheppard

Odds he leaves in free agency: 93%

Veteran cornerbacks that are on the street mid-season aren’t typically the type you want starting down the stretch, but Sheppard is a veteran and he’s smart.

He may be limited more now than he used to be, but he can still be relatively effective as a backup.

 

FS Matt Giordano

Odds he leaves in free agency: 50%

Giordano is familiar with Dennis Allen from his time with the Saints, but it is unknown if Allen has a favorable opinion of Giordano.

Giordano had five interceptions last season playing part-time, but also seemed to shy away from contract and let far too many receivers behind him to feel comfortable with him as anything more than a backup.

SS Jerome Boyd

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Boyd is a fringe roster player and bounced between the practice squad and the active roster. Unless McKenzie and Allen see something in Boyd worth developing they will set their sights on other players.

 

DB Bryan McCann

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Filled in admirably for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore in the return game. He’s a specialist and given his success in that area he could find a home in 2012.

There is an outside chance the Raiders might keep McCann around to limit the wear on the Raiders’ two young receivers.

 

FB Marcel Reece

Odds he leaves in free agency: 0%

As a restricted free agent, if another team wanted to sign Reece they’d have give the Raiders compensation depending on the level of the tender. That’s extremely unlikely and Reece is considered a big part of what the Raiders want to do on offense.

Don’t worry, Reece will be back with the Raiders in 2012.

 

DE Desmond Bryant

Odds he leaves in free agency: 2%

Like Reece, Bryant is a restricted free agent. He’s a great rotational lineman and can play multiple positions on the defensive line.

He’ll undoubtedly be back this season.

Free Agency Strategy: Play Moneyball

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Feb 272012
 

A lot has been made of the Raiders lack of draft selections in the 2012 NFL draft. The Raiders have just two, but are likely to be awarded a few more by the NFL when they announce compensatory picks in late March.

The best pick that can be awarded is a pick at the end of the third round and compensatory selections can’t be traded.

In the NFL there is a salary cap and salary floor to keep all the teams as competitive as possible, but when it comes to draft selection they are traded like currency for acquiring players or more selections.

With such limited resources this offseason, the Oakland Raiders may need to take a page from the Oakland Athletics to stay competitive.

The most important lesson of Moneyball was the A’s determined a way to find value in the market. They did more with less and that’s exactly what the Raiders need to do this offseason.

 

Don’t Overvalue the Cornerbacks

Four of the 12 playoff teams in 2011 were ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense and three of those four teams were ranked in the top four overall. The Cincinnati Bengals were the lone exception having the 9th ranked passing defense in 2011.

The remaining eight playoff teams were all well below average pass defenses and the four worst pass defenses were all playoff teams.

It was an extraordinary year for passing and a terrible year for pass defense. Most teams will be in the market for help in secondary having determined the secondary is now an area of weakness. There are no shortage of options at cornerback to assist these teams.

It’s obvious that a great pass defense is not required to win a Super Bowl and with limited draft picks and salary cap room, the Raiders should play closer attention to other areas and not overvalue the available cornebacks.

The market is going to inflate the value of the available options, particularly Brent Grimes, Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rodgers.

The Raiders should look for bargain options like Tim Jennings, Williams Gay, Richard Marshall and Terrell Thomas to see if one might be able to help solidify the group, but the Raiders should avoid the inflated costs of the top cornerbacks.

 

Buy Generic

The Raiders have some decisions to make when it comes to player contracts. Kamerion Wimbley, Aaron Curry and Michael Huff need to drastically reduce their cap numbers to stick around.

There is still time to work things out, but the Raiders strategy has to be to find cheaper alternatives that can accomplish the same tasks if one or more of them are released. In some cases the generics could actually be better which could steer McKenzie to release and not worry about restructuring the player.

Manny Lawson would be a good sign a.nd fill-in at linebacker Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver was his position coach when he played for the 49ers. Lawson is similar to Curry. He can rush, but he’s not a particularly good pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run. Dennis Allen would be able to utilize Lawson is a variety of ways as a blitzer.

The Baltimore Ravens have plenty of free agents and they will not be able to sign them all. One that stands out is strong-side linebacker Jarrett Johnson. Johnson is particularly good at stopping the run, which has been a problem for the Raiders since 2002.

Johnson will be a popular free agent, but he’s been extremely durable. Johnson has played in 129 straight games for the Ravens, a franchise record. Johnson is 31 and that could keep his costs down on the open market.

Jim Leonhard has been extremely consistent for the New York Jets, but he’s 29 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s not likely to command a huge sum in free agency and the Raiders could use a strong cover safety if they are forced to put Michael Huff on the street inside of pay him $8 million in 2012.

 

Find a Big Man

If the Raiders are planning to play the 3-4 with any regularity they will need a nose tackle that can draw the double team up the middle.

John Henderson is likely to be released due to his contact and that leaves room for run defender on the inside.

Available nose tackle’s include Antonio Garay, Sione Pouha, Paul Soliai, Aubrayo Franklin and Kelly Gregg.

Franklin and Gregg would be the perfect players for the Raiders considering their cost would be minimal. The Raiders wouldn’t need a full-time player unless they planned on shifting to the 3-4 permanently.

Pouha, Garay and Soliai are likely to be cost prohibitive for the Raiders and they will look at some of the cheaper options.

If Tommy Kelly is released the Raiders could look at Broderick Bunkley to play defensive tackle. He improved drastically under Dennis Allen in Denver and was one of the better run defenders in the entire NFL last season.

A linebacker and a tackle could help solidify a run defense that has ranked routinely in the bottom of the league.

 

Get a Bush Replacement

Unless the Raiders can work out a favorable deal with running back Michael Bush, he’ll hit the open market where he is likely to fetch more than the Raiders are willing to pay. It would be a surprise if the Raiders placed the franchise tag on Bush consider the hefty price tag.

Bush departure would leave a hole behind oft-injured starter Darren McFadden. Oft-injured slasher Taiwan Jones and special teams ace Rock Cartwright are the other two backs. Jones may or may not be ready for an expanded roles in the offense. Cartwright is strictly a special teams player, but he’s also a free agent.

The Raiders either need a big bruiser or just another back that can run Greg Knapps’s zone-blocking system effectively.

Good news for the Raiders is that the market for backs is deep and not many are buying.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis would be a good option because he knows how to pass protect having come from New England. Greg Knapp is much more run heavy, but it is nice knowing that the player in the game can put a body on someone to spare the quarterback a hit.

Mike Tolbert is another back that knows how to pass protect and would be great second option to McFadden. He’s built like a bowling ball and could be uses in rush and pass situations.

Justin Forsett would be an inexpensive option for the Raiders. He’s not a big back, but he had a career year in Greg Knapp’s zone-blocking system. He’d be a good pickup as a true backup to McFadden and may actually be able to steal enough carries away from McFadden to keep him fresh.

McKenzie should also keep open the possibility that Bush could be re-signed at a reasonable price.

 

Take Advantage of Value in the Marketplace

If Reggie McKenzie realizes a certain player is being undervalued by market, he should sign the player and rehab his value.

The Raiders could have 6 or 7 good defensive ends and still sign a defensive end that is being drastically undervalued. It’s better to sign a good player for an affordable price and let the coaching staff worry about how to utilize the player.

There’s always room on the roster for good players, so if McKenzie thinks the player is good, the coaches will figure out how to put him in position to win games.

While the Raiders will be hunting in free agency for players at positions of need, they should also keep their options open at other positions to see if the league might be undervaluing receiver, defensive end, offensive tackle, etc.

That means the Raiders should be talking to everyone, including the top free agent receivers to get an idea for what the market is going to look like and what sort of deal the players are expecting.

It may be that the Raiders need to strike now to land a number one receiver, but they wont know until there is competition in the marketplace.

Raiders vs. Browns Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 8:33 AM  No Responses »
Oct 152011
 

Quarterback

Jason Campbell had a very average game last week, throwing for 190 yards. His games have been alternating pretty steadily from the 100s to 300s. If the trend continues this week, look for him to get somewhere in the 300s for yardage. He is averaging two touchdowns and is low risk when it comes to interceptions. Plan for at least one or each for Campbell when choosing which QB to play.

Running Back

Last week was Darren McFadden’s worst all season with only 51 yards and no touchdowns. In that particular game, the carries he did make were crucial, but that doesn’t always translate into fantasy points. This week he should get somewhere around 100 yards with at least one touchdown. Michael Bush also had his worst game last week with a just 9 yards. This will not happen again. The whole running game was a bit off last week, but this week the team is at home so look for Bush to get his standard 30 yards and maybe vulture a touchdown. Cartwright’s yards came on special teams so you can’t count on him for fantasy points. Taiwan Jones is in the same boat. He’ll likely get you no points.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey, one of Al Davis’ latest controversial and bold moves, came through last week in a big way vs. the Houston Texans. In fact, DHB has 11 catches for 214 yards in the past 2 weeks, making him a viable pick-up in fantasy circles.  Coach Davis has gotten a lot of flak for reaching for freakishly athletic talents with blazing speed. DHB was the first the first WR taken in the 2009 draft ahead of supposed can’t miss stud WR Michael Crabtree for this very reason. The reason pundits and analysts look down on DHB was his route-running and questionable ability to catch the ball. Coach Davis lives by the mantra you can teach ability, but you can’t teach speed and knew that all DHB needed was good coaching and the belief his team has in him to deliver. And in his third year in the league, Coach Davis’ vision for DHB is finally coming into fruition. The time has come for many fantasy owners to buy his stock and DHB is a strong WR3 start this week and viable WR2 option vs. the Browns who may be missing top cornerback Joe Haden.

Additionally, the Raiders are also looking for the return of Louis Murphy back into this offense. Fantasy-wise, this doesn’t bode well for Denarius Moore or Jacoby Ford. After a fast start, Moore put up a zero last week vs. the Texans despite his high snap count and targets. After DHB, Moore makes for a strong sneaky flex start if you need his services. This Hue Jackson-led offense is looking Moore’s way and is counting on his big play ability to take the pressure off Darren McFadden. Look for Ford to return kicks and be a viable threat in that front.

Tight End

Kevin Boss was not productive last week vs. the Texans in an emotional game. Look for Boss’ role in this offense to fluctuate, making him just a fantasy prospect at this point. The tight-end position is deep this year and you can look elsewhere. Looking across the sidelines, Ben Watson is a solid plug and play candidate for fantasy as he is getting a ton of work with Colt McCoy actively looking towards the tight ends this year.

Kicker

Seabass – Nothing to see here. He’s a weapon from this team, making the Raiders that much better in close games knowing that Janikowski tied a league long 63 yard field goal earlier this year.  I would suggest even keeping him on your roster during the Raiders’ bye week in Week 8 and trying to find a kicker without dropping him.

Defense/Special Teams

Savvy fantasy players will mostly play defenses by matchups. If you employ this strategy, the Raiders D/ST is a viable option this week vs. the Browns. Nothing about this offense scares you as the team is looking for its identity after its bye. Coach Pat Shurmur has said that he is going back to feeding Peyton Hillis the ball. While he is a bruiser, the Browns is not likely to put up 30 or 40 points this week. The Raiders’ special teams also have upside with Jacoby Ford returning kicks for potential scores.

Studs and Duds From Week 5

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Oct 112011
 

An emotional win. A big win. The Raiders made it through the toughest stretch of the schedule 3-2. Now the Raiders have a month at home and play three unspectacular teams. Two are division foes and anything can happen. Raiders have plenty of things to work on in practice this week and the coaching staff will not let the players look past the Cleveland Browns.

A few players really stood out in the Raiders win and a few, well, didn’t.

 

Studs

Lamarr Houston

Pushed the pile all day long and had the awareness to make the interception on one of the many Matt Schaub tips. Houston had a heck of game in Houston as did the rest of the defensive line. The Raiders really needed the defensive line to take over the game and the Raiders defensive line did just that and Houston was a big part of the Raiders day. Honorable Mention: John Henderson

Tommy Kelly

He had the worst game of his career against the Texans the last time he faced them, but one of his best this Sunday. The Texans had no answer for the Raiders bigs pushing the offensive line into Schaub’s lap. Kelly was pushing the pocket and sealing Arian Foster out of running lanes. A motivated Tommy Kelly is one heck of a football player. He proved that again on Sunday.

Richard Seymour

Three studs on the Raiders defensive line. They deserved it and you could really give a stud mention to this entire unit. Seymour applied tremendous pressure up the middle with Kelly and any yardage Foster gained didn’t come through the middle. Seymour had a sack and was beating double teams which prompted the Raiders to blitz Rolando McClain up the middle which disrupted Schaub even more. Al Davis traded a first round pick for Seymour and to this point he has been worth it and then some.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

Heyward-Bey had 99 yards on six receptions on Sunday with one touchdown and was two out-of-bounds throws by Jason Campbell from nine receptions for 150+ yards and a touchdown. Did I mention Heyward-Bey is also a great blocker? Heyward-Bey played his best game as a professional on Sunday. Heyward-Bey played with the kind of swagger great receivers play with and his profile with the Raider Nation is turning in his favor.

Michael Huff & Tyvon Branch

The Raiders starting safeties had some tough moments, but Branch had a few key tackles and kept Schaub from walking into the end zone on the game’s final play. Huff stepped in from of Schaub’s final pass to seal the big win for the Raiders. That’s enough to get stud recognition despite the team’s struggles covering backs out of the backfield and covering the Texans tight ends.

Rock Cartwright

Not only was the guy all over the field on kick coverage, but he checked to the fake on the punt that gave the Raiders new life and kept the momentum in the Raiders favor. He’s the Raiders special teams captain and he plays like one. He’s quickly become on of my favorite Raiders to watch. Just watch him work on special teams because it is a thing of beauty.

 

Duds

Stanford Routt

Gave up too many catches for an “elite” cornerback. The Patriots ran a quick slant that Routt wasn’t able to defend and the Texans took advantage of the same play to get their first score. He’s still clearly the Raiders best corner, but he’s not playing at an amazingly high level that is making the team forget about Nnamdi Asomugha. That’s troubling, because the two players are making about the same amount.

Quentin Groves

The 12-men on the field penalty on the final drive was a direct result of Groves lack of hustle to get off the field and it cost the Raiders crucial time at the end of the game. Groves also blew his coverage assignment on Texans fullback Lawrence Vickers only for Vickers to drop the sure touchdown. Groves was nowhere to be found when Arian Foster was catching swing passes out of the backfield. He’s still rounding into form as a linebacker, but he isn’t good enough to make up for his own mistakes.

Jason Campbell

Forced too many throws and didn’t always give his receivers a chance to catch the ball. Way too many missed receivers. He missed Chaz Schilens on the flea flicker and threw several passes to Heyward-Bey and Denarius Moore that took the receivers out of pounds or where just too far out of reach. Campbell made enough plays to redeem himself and the touchdown pass to Schilens was a highlight, but he has to play better for the Raiders offense to take the next step. The next step for the Raiders offense is producing when Darren McFadden isn’t putting up be yardage on the ground.

Taiwan Jones

He redeemed himself with a big special teams tackle on Shane Lechler’s final punt, but he committed a penalty and was getting into Denarius Moore’s way on punt returns. The Texans special teams units pushed Jones back into Moore as well. Jones can’t stay active on gameday without his special teams ability, so the Raiders will continue putting him into position to make a play on special teams. Let’s hope his stop on special teams is the real Jones.

Studs and Duds From Week 3

 Posted by at 3:38 PM  1 Response »
Sep 272011
 

The Raiders victory over the Jets has the coach and the team riding high. Even the national media is catching on as the Raiders are now making the top 10 in the mostly ridiculous power rankings.

Tom Brady comes to Oakland in week 4 so the Raiders don’t have much time to think about their early season victory. The Raiders need more studs on defense if they are to beat the Patriots.

Studs

Samson Satele

I sometimes have a hard time believing he is the same player as he was last season. I heard Satele was dealing with headaches and dizzy spells last season. I’m not sure how much this impacted his on-field performance and how much his production has to do with having Bob Wylie and Steve Wisniewski as offensive line coaches. It doesn’t matter now as Satele has done a great job this season. Early in Sunday’s game Sione Pouha got the best of him on one running play and Satele dominated at the point of attack from that point on.

 

Darren McFadden

I’m pretty sure he’ll be on the list every week. You already know his stats 171 yards, 2 touchdowns.

 

Hue Jackson & Chuck Bresnahan

The Raiders made the Jets defense look silly most of the afternoon. Bresnahan switched to zone coverage when youngsters were forced into action and it worked in the second half. Coaching staff pulled all the right strings and called all the right plays. Credit to them.

 

Jason Campbell

Took care of the football. No turnovers and didn’t force throws into the Jets secondary. Stepped up into the pocket and delivered a strike to Michael Bush down the left sideline that lead to the game sealing field goal.

 

Kevin Boss

First game in Silver and Black looked pretty good. Made a key catch on the Raiders opening touchdown drive and a key block that sprung McFadden for over 70 yards. He’ll make everyone forget about Zach Miller if he stays healthy.

 

Chimdi Chekwa

Coming out party for the rookie? He entered the game when Chris Johnson went out with an injury and had tight coverage on Plaxico Burress most of the day. If the Raiders secondary remains banged up the Raiders will need Chekwa and Joe Porter to play well and Demarcus Van Dyke to get healthy.

 

Duds

Special Teams

It didn’t really burn them on Sunday, but the coverage units did terrible covering kicks on Sunday. John Fassell is really missing Hiram Eugene. Rock Cartwright can’t cover kicks alone. Lechler had a rare off day and Jon Condo had a few sub par long snaps. Seabass kept the special teams from being a complete disaster, but even he missed one. Taiwan Jones and Denarius Moore didn’t stumble and fall down like Nick Miller, but hardly improved the return game. Big difference between a muff and a forced fumble.

 

Rolando McClain

He had a solid game, but he makes the duds list for his weak arm tackle on Tomlinson’s long reception. When he properly diagnosing runs he’s at his best. He’s been solid in coverage, but far too many missed tackles and bad angles.

 

Matt Giordano

Plays too tentatively. He always seemed to be watching players run by him. He’s a ticking time bomb in the secondary, but until the Raiders young cornerbacks relieve Michael Huff from cornerback duties Giordano will keep playing. 

Khalif Barnes

The weakest link on a much improved offensive line. It shouldn’t be long now because Joseph Barksdale is starting at right tackle. He’s already been promoted as evidenced by Stephon Heyer’s deactivation on Sunday. The only pressure on Campbell came from Barnes inability to handle the speed rush. He’ll continue to have a role as a sixth lineman in jumbo sets, but his starting job is very much in jeopardy.

 

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