Week 14 Preview: It’s All About Time

 Posted by at 1:31 PM  1 Response »
Dec 112011
 

When the Raiders take on the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, there is little room for error. Losing to the Dolphins last week and the meteoric rise of Tim Tebow in Denver has given the AFC West a legitimate race to the finish. Both teams are 7-4 with four to play. The Raiders face Green Bay and Kansas City on the road and Detroit and San Diego at home. The Broncos have three at home versus the battered Bears, New England and Kansas City and one game on the road against the faltering Bills.

Hue Jackson has been trying to get his team to finish games all season and now that lesson is on full display. If the Raiders are to win the division they will need to win in the final quarter of the season too.

The Packers are undefeated and present the Raiders greatest challenge this season, but don’t let a record fool you in the NFL, this will be a battle and it could come down to a turnover or special teams score. Here is how the teams look by the numbers.

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As you can see, the Packers and Raiders actually pair strengths and against strengths and weakness versus weakness. The difference could come down to the significant advantage of turnovers for the Packers or special teams. The Packers and Raiders are similarly matched return units with the Packers punt return game holding a slight advantage. Shane Lechler is punting remains amazing, but his net average could be better. The Raiders need to pin the Packers deep and make Aaron Rodgers job as difficult as possible.

The Raiders will attempt to limit Rodgers in two ways. One way is with their defense and the other is with a clock-eating offense on the back of Michael Bush.

 

When The Raiders Have The Ball:

The Packers defense is suspect on the ground and through the air. Offense has been good defense for the Packers so far this season. The Raiders need to play their game and that’s rushing and taking shots deep when needed. The Packers rush defense is allowing just over 100 yards per game, but at a 4.9 yards per carry average. It’s important for the offense and Hue Jackson not to get caught up too much in what the Packers offense is doing to the Raiders defense. If the Raiders need to pass they should be able to do so, particularly on slant patterns deep. Passing comes with risk against a Packers defense known for being ball Hawks.

Michael Bush vs. A.J. Hawk

Bush never got on track last week and the Raiders offensive line was pushed around. Hawk is questionable with a calf injury and is expected to play. The Raiders should test Hawk’s health by running right at him with the 240+ pound tailback they have. If Bush has a good day the Raiders have a good chance to hand the Packers their first loss of the season. Bush needs to do a better job in blitz pickup to protect Palmer on passing downs.

Samson Satele vs. B.J. Raji

The Raiders offensive line needs to do the job this week than last and the pressure has been coming up the middle in recent weeks. While most of the pressure has been coming via blitz, Samson needs to do a better job of getting push to thwart the free blitzer from running up the middle and getting in the face of Carson Palmer.

Khalif Barnes vs. Clay Matthews

Barnes has been the weakest link on the offensive line all year. When the Raiders offense is rolling Barnes is playing consistently average. That’s the best you can hope for is for Barnes to limit Matthews. The Raiders should keep Matthews busy in coverage versus Marcel Reece and slide help to his side.

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Woodson

Palmer will try to get matchups against Tramon Williams and the Packers safeties. He should stay away from Woodson. At very least Palmer needs to pick his spots versus Woodson. Palmer must limit interceptions and Woodson is the most dangerous player in pass coverage.

 

When The Packers Have The Ball:

Aaron Rodgers is the key to the Packers cog. Limit Rodgers and the Packers are beatable. The Raiders will attack the outside with Kamerion Wimbley and try to make Rodger move in the pocket. It’s important for the Raiders to get pressure and surprise Rodgers. The Packers will spread the Raiders defense out and put the pressure on the Raiders secondary. If the Raiders don’t present Rodgers with any new challenges the Packers talent at receiver should be enough to beat the Raiders consistently.

If the Raiders play man, the Packers will spread them out wide and run crossing routes to open up consistent yards underneath and if the Raiders play zone the Packers will attack the safeties deep and dump it off short if the Raiders play it tight. The dump offs will be the responsibility of the Raider linebackers, even when they are executing a zone blitz. If the protection holds up around Rodgers expect small dump offs to turn into big gains.

Tackling will be important and the first man to the ball must make the tackle. Yards after catch must be limited through the air and on dump-offs. If the Raiders secondary doesn’t put a shoulder into their Tackles the Packers will chip away at them all day.

Bryan Bulaga/Marshall Newhouse vs. Kamerion Wimbley

The Raiders will deploy Wimbley as a defensive end on both sides, rotating out Lamarr Houston and Desmond Bryant when needed. Wimbley needs a performance reminiscent of his game against San Diego. The Raiders would be wise to keep Wimbley totally out of coverage and let him do all his work on the Packers sub-par offensive tackles.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Rolando McClain

McClain’s job is to keep the Raiders defense on the same page. The Raiders must play a clean mental game to limit Rodgers and confuse him and hope the Raiders can capitalize when the Packers occasionally make a mistake. If the Packers attempt to attack the Raiders weakness against the run it will be McClain’s play that makes them thing otherwise or continue. If Rodgers can easily diagnose the Raiders defense and catches the Raiders defense confused or out of position he will have a field day. Very important that McClain has a big day.

Greg Jennings vs. Stanford Routt

Jennings runs great routes and has the skills to beat almost any cornerback. The Raiders should take their chances with the Packers other offensive weapons and have Routt shadow Jennings. Routt successfully took away Vincent Jackson and he’ll need a similar performance Sunday.

Jermichael Finley vs. Mike Mitchell

The Packers told NFL.com that they will attack Mitchell after seeing something on film. Expect them to do so. Mitchell hasn’t played as well this season as he did last year when he limited Antonio Gates on too occasions. Finley is much like a younger Gates and Mitchell will have his hands full. Mitchell has been out of position on many occasions this year. With Chris Johnson, Michael Huff will be filling in at corner and Matt Giordano at safety, but it is Mitchell’s size, physicality and athleticism that gives him the best chance to limit Finley.

Predictions:

The Raidersblog prediction machine puts the game at Packers 30, Raiders 23 taking only into account offense and defense. The Raiders need to make a couple big plays, score on defense or score on special teams to close the gap. The Raiders can win this game and limiting mental mistakes, including penalties will certainly help them keep it close. If it is close, anything can happen. If the Packers decide to run, that could play into the Raiders strategy by keeping the score down, but the offense needs to show up in a big way without four of the fastest guys in the NFL.

Studs and Duds From Week 12

 Posted by at 7:17 PM  No Responses »
Dec 012011
 

Belated this week, but the show must go on!

STUDS

Marcel Reece

Quite the weapon for the Raiders. Expect him to continue to have a big role for the final five games.

Aaron Curry

Best game as a professional. He’s a good player when he the play is in front of him. A good trade for the Raiders with potential to be great.

Rolando McClain

The linebackers were a big reason for the Raiders success on Sunday. McClain had a good game stopping the run and in coverage. He was in a tough position when Caleb Hanie scrambled to his right as he had to choose between covering Forte or going after Hanie. It was a big pickup for the Bears, but if McClain leaves Forte open it could have been bigger. ***I should revoke this for his actions Wednesday night in Alabama.***

Kamerion Wimbley

He did a bit of everything on Sunday. Still the best pure pass rusher on the team, he stepped up and stopped the run and he had an interception and return that would have been a touchdown if not for a horse-collar tackle at the end of the play.

Tyvon Branch

The stats rarely show it, but Branch is one of the rare players that can play at full speed and make very few mistakes. He was flying around the field on Sunday and he should get credit for being the strength of the Raiders secondary.

DUDS

The Offensive Line

The entire line got dominated by the Bears. The best of the bunch was Cooper Carlisle. The young left side struggled and Veldheer came back to earth against Julius Peppers. I might have expected it from the right side of the line, but it was a tough game for the Raiders left side. Back to work big fellas.

Carson Palmer

He made a few throws he would like back. He turns into a different quarterback when he is pressured and the line did him no favors. Could be a key going forward. He got the job done, which is a testament to him. He’s a very good quarterback, but Sunday was not his best.

Stanford Routt

The touchdown he allowed on a skinny post by Johnny Knox isn’t why he is a dud. He is too passive in run support and his coverage is still inconsistent. He needs to play up to his pay grade.

Week 12 Defensive Preview: Stop Forte

 Posted by at 1:51 AM  No Responses »
Nov 272011
 

The Bears come into Oakland minus their starting quarterback Jay Cutler. They will turn from Cutler to Caleb Hanie. It changes the game considerably from what the Raiders would have been facing with Jay Cutler under center. The Bears will not be able to turn to Cutler when the defense stacks the box against Matt Forte and the pressure will be on Hanie to make the defense pay for it.

Running

Matt Forte has more yards from scrimmage and more 20+ and 40+ yards runs than any running back in football. Forte is averaging 155.1 yards per game. Put this in perspective, Matt Forte generates over 47% of the Bears offensive yards. How does the worst run defense in football stop the best running back in football? The Raiders are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Forte is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It doesn’t take a mathematician to do this math Forte could run all over the Raiders if they don’t have a plan to stop him.

Forte is extremely elusive and defenders have missed tackles on him 38 times. Only Michael Turner has more, but Forte has also forced 11 missed tackles in the passing game. Raiders must maintain gap discipline and maintain their fundamentals when trying to bring down Forte.

The Raiders rush defense has been inconsistent and there is debate about just how much the run defense has improved from prior years. Raiders have allowed 38, 223, 100, 183, 70, 65, 139, 299, 75, 124 in games this season. If the Raiders hold the opposing team to less than 125 yards they are 6-0, but are 0-4 when allowing more than 125 yards on the ground.

Without consistency it is difficult to project how the Raiders will fare against a back of Forte’s caliber, but they have demonstrated the ability to stop the run at times this season. The defense is struggling for consistency and holding opponents under 125 in three consecutive weeks would be a step in the right direction. Stopping the run is a combination between attitude, gap discipline and tackling. The Raiders can’t afford to skirt by with only one of the three elements. Pressure is on the linebackers in this game. If Forte runs wild it will be a long afternoon.

Playing with a lead would limit Forte’s role in the game and the Raiders offense can really help out the defense by scoring early.

Passing

Again, the Raiders must worry about Matt Forte. He has 46 receptions for 465 yards coming through the passing game. Forte can be stopped in the passing game by ensuring coverage in the middle of the field. Only 9 of 46 Forte receptions have been to the outside for a total of just 96 yards. He’ll be Caleb Hanie’s security blanket and the Raiders need to know where he is at all times.

Johnnie Knox presents a different challenge. He’s a burner and deep threat for the Bears and averaging nearly 20 yards per reception. Play him physical at the line and make sure he doesn’t get behind you. The Raiders are never speed deficient and may opt to single cover and dare Hanie to throw deep.

Devin Hester is turning into a solid receiver and the Bears may try to get the ball into his hands. The Raiders defense needs to converge on Hester and limit his running lanes for a big play. Earl Bennett and Roy Williams are more station-to-station receivers and Hanie may look to them on third downs.

Raiders should dare Hanie to throw by stacking the box and using inside leverage to force Hanie to make more difficult throws.

Special Teams

The oft ignored third phase of the game takes center stage this Sunday as the Raiders get set to host Devin Hester and the Bears. Hester is one of he best return men in the league. If Shane Lechler and the Raiders elect to kick it in Hester’s direction the coverage teams will need to be ready. All signs indicate the return team is getting prepared for the worst, but don’t expect Lechler to take the risk this Sunday unless necessary.

By The Numbers

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Studs and Duds From Week 11

 Posted by at 2:56 PM  1 Response »
Nov 222011
 

The Raiders slogged through the second half again and it nearly came back to bite them. A better team may have been able to capitalize on the Raiders penalties, but the Vikings without Adrian Peterson were powerless to do so. The defense looked suspect again and the Raiders offensive line struggled more than they have all season. A few welcome surprises this week and the reappearance of duds from 2010.

STUDS

Jared Veldheer

Veldheer handled Jared Allen on Sunday and held him without a sack for the first time this season. The Raiders finally found their franchise left tackle from Hillsdale College. If Veldheer can handle Julius Peppers this Sunday, he’ll start getting national recognition and should get a decent amount of Pro Bowl consideration. Allen did get pressure on Palmer on back-to-back plays in the first half, but Veldheer adjusted and was pushing Allen well wide of Palmer for the rest of the day. On one occasion Veldheer flattened Allen on a run. A great performance from the Raiders left tackle and the Raiders need him to equal it next Sunday.

Kevin Boss

Hue Jackson finally got his tight end involved in the offense and the Bossman didn’t disappoint. On more than one occasion Boss helped the Raiders convert on third down. It was nice to see Boss getting into the groove of things and getting involved, he’ll continue to be a good third down outlet for Carson Palmer and Jackson should utilize him in that capacity when needed.

Darrius Heyward-Bey

He sustained a blow to the back of the head and the severity of the injury is still unclear, but it appears that Heyward-Bey avoided the worst and may be able to return to action in a few weeks. It’s a good thing too, because Heyward-Bey’ has been producing when given the opportunity. Palmer is starting to look his way and a 34-yard strike was nullified by a Veldheer hold in the first half.

Stanford Routt

He’s much like Nnamdi Asomugha was, he’s consistently good in coverage and will occasionally have lapses trying to make a tackle, but a corner’s main responsiblity in the Raiders offense is to cover and he did that an elite level on Sunday. Capping the performance with interception in the endzone when it appeared the Vikings were getting back into the game.

Desmond Bryant

He’s the starting end opposite Lamarr Houston now and his performances have gotten him more and more playing time ahead of Jarvis Moss and Trevor Scott. He had two sacks on Sunday and looked dominant at times. He should win the job full-time at end as he has been equally good against the run and pass. It sure helps alleviate the loss of Matt Shaughnessy when you have a player as versatile and good as Desmond Bryant on the team.

Honorable Mentions

Tommy Kelly, Matt Giordano, Tyvon Branch

DUDS

Rolando McClain

Oh Rolando…how I wish you were anything approaching a good middle linebacker. The Raiders really hit the 2010 draft out of the park…minus the very first pick. Bad angles, bad tackling, can’t get off blocks. He’s decent in coverage, but for every good play he has a lapse. He made a good play to knock down a pass late in the game, but he should have been able to intercept it if he hadn’t been there a step late.

Michael Huff

Matt Giordano is getting more time at free safety and Huff is getting more time at cornerback at the expense of Demarcus Van Dyke. Perhaps the Raiders should re-think this alignment. Huff might be playing injured, but he wasn’t able to tackle anyone and was lucky Percy Harvin’s touchdown run was nullified by a Vikings penalty. Terrible game for Huff.

Khalif Barnes

He’s obviously the weak link on the Raiders resurgent offensive line. If the Raiders had a good alternative they would probably bench Barnes, but Bruce Campbell appears stuck at the bottom of the depth chart and Stephon Heyer and Joseph Barksdale are getting their snaps at guard due to the injury of center Samson Satele.

Cooper Carlisle

The Raiders offensive line struggled on Sunday and Carlisle was no exception. The Raiders couldn’t run to the right without the lineman getting blown into the backfield and stuffing Michael Bush. Carlisle and Barnes are probably rated 21 and 22 among Raiders starters and they both get dud status this week.

Dishonerable Mentions

Stephon Heyer, Samson Satele, Aaron Curry, Officiating.

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Week 11 Defensive Preview: Focus is on the Linebackers

 Posted by at 4:20 PM  2 Responses »
Nov 182011
 

The 2011 Minnesota Viking Offense is very similar to the offense of the 2009 Oakland Raiders. Both of these offenses featured young developing quarterbacks and potentially game braking running backs. The Raiders won five games during the 2009 season. With the season more than halfway over Minnesota is 2-7, so finishing with a five-win season is a realistic goal for them. As a result, both of these offenses relayed on a strong running game to alleviate their ineptness in the passing game.

For the Vikings to be successful they have to get Adrian Peterson going. Peterson has earned the right to be regarded as the best running back in the NFL. The Raiders defense has contain him and remain disciplined. To be successful, the Vikings must take advantage when the Raiders defense plays undisciplined or gets too aggressive. Look for Christian Ponder to try to expose the Raiders’ linebackers in pass coverage and take try to connect with Percy Harvin when he is lined up against Demarcas Van Dyke or Lito Shepperd. The pressure is on the Raiders front seven to play with enough aggression to keep Peterson in check and simultaneously maintain gap discipline. The result of the game will hinge on the leadership and play of Richard Seymour and Rolando McClain.

Match-ups

Adrian Peterson vs. Rolando McClain

The Raiders have an inconsistent rush defense, that performs well in wins and abysmal in losses. As the quarterback of the defense, it is easy to criticize McClain, but he does deserve some praise. With Minnesota having an inept passing game, the pressure will be on McClain to lead the troops and to keep Peterson from taking over the game.

Aaron Curry vs. Christian Ponder

The Raiders play a lot of nickel, so Curry is on the field in less than ideal situations. Even though Curry is getting better in passing situations, he still remains a liability in coverage. If Ponder is to make Minnesota’s passing game respectable, a great place to start would be throwing to the target closest to Curry.

Kamerion Wimbley vs. Charlie Johnson

Wimbley has been getting after the opposing quarterback all season and finally cashed in with four sacks last week. Johnson and the Vikings offensive line have given up 25 sacks, contrast that with the Raiders giving up 11 sacks. It doesn’t help having a developing rookie as quarterback. If the Vikings are to convert third downs and sustain drives they will need good protection and that starts with containing Wimbley.

X-Factor

Richard Seymour

The Raiders defense could easily dominate the game. If they do, it is because they consistently stuffed the run and put Ponder in long down and distance situations. If the Raiders defense dominates the line of scrimmage it is because their defensive line, led by , is getting consistent penetration. Barring a systemic defense collapse the Raiders should win this game. If a collapse occurs, it is because their defensive captain, Seymour, played undisciplined and received multiple penalties.

Prediction

Raiders 20, Vikings 13

The Raiders defense will not fall apart, but the game will stay close. Hue Jackson will use the pass to set up the run as Palmer picks apart Minnesota’s injured and helpless secondary.

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