Flight Risk: Raiders’ Free Agents Ready to Hit the Open Market

 Posted by at 8:00 AM  1 Response »
Mar 092012
 

Free agency starts Monday and the Raiders are still hacking away at troublesome contracts to get under the salary cap. Once the Raiders are comfortably under the salary cap they will turn their attention to signing free agents.

It wouldn’t be uncommon for a team to end up signing the majority of their own free agents, but this is no ordinary year in Oakland. Reggie McKenzie will try to re-shape the roster and the fringe-roster players could all be seeking employment on Monday.

Some Raiders’ free agents will be retained and others will be boarding flights to different cities in 201

 

QB Jason Campbell

Odds he leaves in free agency: 96%

Campbell is a classy player that understands the business side of the game. He didn’t make any noise when he was benched in favor of Bruce Gradkowski and he stuck around to support the team even though the Raiders had moved on from him last season.

Despite the bonds Campbell forged in Oakland, he’ll be boarding a flight for a new city in 2012. Where will depend on who wins the Peyton Manning sweepstakes and which teams rolls the dice on Matt Flynn.

Teams that need a quarterback include, Miami, Cleveland, Washington, Arizona, Seattle, Denver, Kansas City and Jacksonville.

Campbell may find it difficult to find a starting job in 2012, but that doesn’t mean he wont select a team where his odds of starting are increased.

Denver would be an interesting location for Campbell. Tebow’s success appears unsustainable and they don’t have much behind him. Unless the Dolphins lose

 

QB Kyle Boller

Odds he leaves in free agency: 100%

Boller will be hard-pressed to find a job as a second or third quarterback and it’s probably close to the end of the line for Boller.

 

RB Michael Bush

Odds he leaves in free agency: 90%

The Franchise Tag was given to Tyvon Branch, leaving Michael Bush to test the waters of free agency.

While the Raiders might want Bush to return, there will be teams calling that are willing to offer Bush much more than the Raiders will be able to offer.

The Bengals find themselves looking for a starting runningback for the first time in many years. Cedric Benson fizzled out as a starter and the Bengals will be looking for a back to pair with Andy Dalton and A.J. Green. The Bengals can find more balance offensively if they sign a legitimate starter and Bush has proven valuable and durable as the backup in Oakland. Potential fit.

 

RB Rock Cartwright

Odds he leaves in free agency: 25%

Cartwright was the Raiders’ special teams captain in 2012 and will come cheaply. Expect the Raiders to keep Cartwright around in 2012, but he wont be a top priority. He’s expressed a desire to stay with the Raiders and the Raiders will eventually return the favor.

 

WR Chaz Schilens

Odds he leaves in free agency: 85%

Vincent Jackson is ready to find a new team and that leaves a hole at receiver in San Diego. The Chargers rarely open up the bank for a free agent, so Schilens potential and affordability make Schilens an interesting target for the Chargers.

Schilens is familiar with San Diego having gone to college at San Diego State and he’s a native of southern California.

The Chargers have seen enough of Schilens to know he has talent, but not so close that they realize that he’s been healthy for one year of his career.

 

WR T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

No one wanted him seven games into the 2011 season before Carson Palmer and Hue Jackson called. He didn’t do much with his time catching 11 passes for 146 yards in nine games.

He’ll file back into the unemployment line and that’s likely where he will remain.

 

C Samson Satele

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Satele will reportedly not be retained by the Raiders. While that’s certainly not a bad move, Satele is cheap and can backup multiple positions on the offensive line. He’ll find a work somewhere.

 

RT Khalif Barnes

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Barnes was not a very good starter at right tackle, but he could be signed to be a backup lineman somewhere in 2012

The Raiders will shift to younger players and/or players that fit the zone-blocking scheme and neither describe Barnes.

 

OL Stephon Heyer

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Heyer was brought in to challenge for a starting job and he never did although one could argue the line played better when he was at left guard and Stefen Wisniewski was at center.

Regardless, Heyer is a free agent and doesn’t fit into the Raiders’ plans to shift to zone-blocking.

 

DE Trevor Scott

Odds he leaves in free agency: 48%

Scott is one player that might benefit from the Raiders new defense and he’ll be inexpensive to retain. It wasn’t long ago when Scott was an up-and-coming pass rusher and that might be enough to intrigue Dennis Allen. Intrigued enough to keep Scott in Oakland?

 

DE Jarvis Moss

Odds he leaves in free agency: 84%

Things didn’t work out for Moss in Denver or Oakland and Moss will be looking for his third team in 2012.

He flashes ability, but he’s far too inconsistent. Gut feeling is Rex Ryan calls and offers Moss a job as a backup with the Jets.

 

LB Ricky Brown

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

He was a player with ties to the organization and Al Davis kept coming back to Brown when he needed him.

Brown will have a tough time finding a team in 2012 and there is a very good chance

 

LB Quentin Groves

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Groves was benched in favor of Aaron Curry mid-season and outside of solid special teams play offered little more than a body for the Raiders defense.

He’ll be in a different uniform in 2012.

 

LB Darryl Blackstock

Odds he leaves in free agency: 95%

He was a special teams player and was familiar with Chuck Bresnahan from his days as a coach for a UFL team. Given Blackstock is affordable and there isn’t much film on the guy, it’s conceivable the Raider will give him the opportunity to earn a roster spot in camp.

 

CB Lito Sheppard

Odds he leaves in free agency: 93%

Veteran cornerbacks that are on the street mid-season aren’t typically the type you want starting down the stretch, but Sheppard is a veteran and he’s smart.

He may be limited more now than he used to be, but he can still be relatively effective as a backup.

 

FS Matt Giordano

Odds he leaves in free agency: 50%

Giordano is familiar with Dennis Allen from his time with the Saints, but it is unknown if Allen has a favorable opinion of Giordano.

Giordano had five interceptions last season playing part-time, but also seemed to shy away from contract and let far too many receivers behind him to feel comfortable with him as anything more than a backup.

SS Jerome Boyd

Odds he leaves in free agency: 98%

Boyd is a fringe roster player and bounced between the practice squad and the active roster. Unless McKenzie and Allen see something in Boyd worth developing they will set their sights on other players.

 

DB Bryan McCann

Odds he leaves in free agency: 99%

Filled in admirably for Jacoby Ford and Denarius Moore in the return game. He’s a specialist and given his success in that area he could find a home in 2012.

There is an outside chance the Raiders might keep McCann around to limit the wear on the Raiders’ two young receivers.

 

FB Marcel Reece

Odds he leaves in free agency: 0%

As a restricted free agent, if another team wanted to sign Reece they’d have give the Raiders compensation depending on the level of the tender. That’s extremely unlikely and Reece is considered a big part of what the Raiders want to do on offense.

Don’t worry, Reece will be back with the Raiders in 2012.

 

DE Desmond Bryant

Odds he leaves in free agency: 2%

Like Reece, Bryant is a restricted free agent. He’s a great rotational lineman and can play multiple positions on the defensive line.

He’ll undoubtedly be back this season.

Week 15 Preview: Effort & Efficiency

 Posted by at 12:55 PM  No Responses »
Dec 182011
 

Two weeks ago headed into the game against Miami the Raiders were leading the AFC West and coming off three straight victories. Two weeks later the season is on the line. Thanks to Timothy Tebow in Denver and two horrible losses in a row, the Raiders are in must-win mode. Unfortunately for the Raiders the opponent this week needs a win just as badly. The Lions look and play like a playoff team. The Raiders haven’t played like a playoff team in many weeks. What do the Raiders need to do to win? Let’s take a look at the numbers.

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When the Raiders have the ball:

The Lions are nearly as suspect against the run as the Raiders surrendering 5.1 yards per carry this season to the Raiders 5.2 and 5 yards less per game than the Raiders atrocious run defense. The Raiders will attempt to run on the Lions and keep Carson Palmer from hurting the Raiders with costly turnovers. The Lions secondary have proven themselves to be ball hawks and they will force Carson Palmer into a turnover if the Raiders can’t keep the Lions honest by running the ball.

Raiders OL vs. Lions DL

The Lions defensive line is much like the Raiders defensive line. It looks great on paper, but the production hasn’t matched the reputation. Khalif Barnes versus the Lions 9-sack defensive end Cliff Avril. If Barnes continues his streak of below average play Avril will harass Carson Palmer. If the Raiders intend to keep Palmer from making mistakes they need to keep the pressure out of his face. Jared Veldheer draws a match up against veteran Kyle Vanden Bosch and his 7 sacks. Vanden Bosch is the type of end that Veldheer has been struggling with. Vanden Bosch will combine power and a quick first step that Veldheer has been struggling to deal with. In the middle Cooper Carlisle draws a well rested Ndamukong Suh who served a two game suspension for stomping a Packers offensive lineman. That leaves Stefen Wisniewski and Samson Satele to block Corey Williams.

If the Raiders fall behind and the Lions are able to turn their defensive line loose on the Raiders offensive line things could get ugly. The Raiders offensive line needs to push around the Lions defensive front in the run game and get Michael Bush through cleanly and let him do his work the Lions linebackers and secondary.

Carson Palmer vs. Carson Palmer

Palmer needs to get back to basics. The Raiders are good enough and Palmer is good enough to score points when they aren’t turning the ball over. Palmer has made several inexplicable decisions over the past few weeks and has been making fundamental errors. IF Palmer can clean up his game and avoid making mistakes the Raiders should at least be able to stay in the game. Palmer will hope the Raiders ride Bush hard this week and that should open up things for Palmer in the passing game.

When the Lions have the ball:

Richard Seymour has disappeared from games for several weeks and it prompted a meeting with Hue Jackson this week. Expect Seymour to respond. The Raiders must pressure Matthew Stafford and force him to make mistakes. The Lions are a passing team, but become infinitely more potent offensively when Kevin Smith is  slashing through defenses. The Lions have weapons all over the field. Calvin Johnson, Nate Burleson, Titus Young and Brandon Pettigrew round out the group. The Raiders will need to pressure Stafford into mistakes, if he gets it into the hands of his playmakers the Raiders will be in trouble.

Richard Seymour vs. Stephen Peterman

The Raiders need big game from their defensive leader. Seymour ignites the rest of the defensive line and when he is getting pressure up the middle things up outside for Kamerion Wimbley. It’s a must for Seymour to physically dominate Peterman. The Lions offensive line is prone to giving up pressure and Peterman is the no exception.

Rolando McClain vs. Kevin Smith

Smith is a slasher that thrives on bouncing things outside and getting yards from draws and cutbacks. If Rolando McClain diagnoses plays quickly he can take the Lions rush out of the game. Stafford can catch fire if he has time and the rushing game will help his offensive line tremendously. The Raiders must limit Smith and McClain’s job is to make sure the Raiders have gap integrity, himself included.

Stanford Routt vs. Calvin Johnson

Routt has been playing relatively well. He’s limiting the opponents top receiving option and will need to do so again on Sunday. Forcing Stafford to consider his other option is a win for the Raiders defense and it will be on Routt to make sure Johnson isn’t getting into a groove with Stafford.

Raiders Win If…

1. Raiders give a total effort
2. Raiders protect the ball
3. Raiders force turnovers
4. Raiders stop the run

Raiders Lose If…

1. Raiders do not maintain gap integrity in the running game
2. Raiders turn the ball over more than once
3. Raiders fall behind early
4. Raiders commit more penalties than the  Lions

Week 14 Preview: It’s All About Time

 Posted by at 1:31 PM  1 Response »
Dec 112011
 

When the Raiders take on the Packers at Lambeau Field on Sunday, there is little room for error. Losing to the Dolphins last week and the meteoric rise of Tim Tebow in Denver has given the AFC West a legitimate race to the finish. Both teams are 7-4 with four to play. The Raiders face Green Bay and Kansas City on the road and Detroit and San Diego at home. The Broncos have three at home versus the battered Bears, New England and Kansas City and one game on the road against the faltering Bills.

Hue Jackson has been trying to get his team to finish games all season and now that lesson is on full display. If the Raiders are to win the division they will need to win in the final quarter of the season too.

The Packers are undefeated and present the Raiders greatest challenge this season, but don’t let a record fool you in the NFL, this will be a battle and it could come down to a turnover or special teams score. Here is how the teams look by the numbers.

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As you can see, the Packers and Raiders actually pair strengths and against strengths and weakness versus weakness. The difference could come down to the significant advantage of turnovers for the Packers or special teams. The Packers and Raiders are similarly matched return units with the Packers punt return game holding a slight advantage. Shane Lechler is punting remains amazing, but his net average could be better. The Raiders need to pin the Packers deep and make Aaron Rodgers job as difficult as possible.

The Raiders will attempt to limit Rodgers in two ways. One way is with their defense and the other is with a clock-eating offense on the back of Michael Bush.

 

When The Raiders Have The Ball:

The Packers defense is suspect on the ground and through the air. Offense has been good defense for the Packers so far this season. The Raiders need to play their game and that’s rushing and taking shots deep when needed. The Packers rush defense is allowing just over 100 yards per game, but at a 4.9 yards per carry average. It’s important for the offense and Hue Jackson not to get caught up too much in what the Packers offense is doing to the Raiders defense. If the Raiders need to pass they should be able to do so, particularly on slant patterns deep. Passing comes with risk against a Packers defense known for being ball Hawks.

Michael Bush vs. A.J. Hawk

Bush never got on track last week and the Raiders offensive line was pushed around. Hawk is questionable with a calf injury and is expected to play. The Raiders should test Hawk’s health by running right at him with the 240+ pound tailback they have. If Bush has a good day the Raiders have a good chance to hand the Packers their first loss of the season. Bush needs to do a better job in blitz pickup to protect Palmer on passing downs.

Samson Satele vs. B.J. Raji

The Raiders offensive line needs to do the job this week than last and the pressure has been coming up the middle in recent weeks. While most of the pressure has been coming via blitz, Samson needs to do a better job of getting push to thwart the free blitzer from running up the middle and getting in the face of Carson Palmer.

Khalif Barnes vs. Clay Matthews

Barnes has been the weakest link on the offensive line all year. When the Raiders offense is rolling Barnes is playing consistently average. That’s the best you can hope for is for Barnes to limit Matthews. The Raiders should keep Matthews busy in coverage versus Marcel Reece and slide help to his side.

Carson Palmer vs. Charles Woodson

Palmer will try to get matchups against Tramon Williams and the Packers safeties. He should stay away from Woodson. At very least Palmer needs to pick his spots versus Woodson. Palmer must limit interceptions and Woodson is the most dangerous player in pass coverage.

 

When The Packers Have The Ball:

Aaron Rodgers is the key to the Packers cog. Limit Rodgers and the Packers are beatable. The Raiders will attack the outside with Kamerion Wimbley and try to make Rodger move in the pocket. It’s important for the Raiders to get pressure and surprise Rodgers. The Packers will spread the Raiders defense out and put the pressure on the Raiders secondary. If the Raiders don’t present Rodgers with any new challenges the Packers talent at receiver should be enough to beat the Raiders consistently.

If the Raiders play man, the Packers will spread them out wide and run crossing routes to open up consistent yards underneath and if the Raiders play zone the Packers will attack the safeties deep and dump it off short if the Raiders play it tight. The dump offs will be the responsibility of the Raider linebackers, even when they are executing a zone blitz. If the protection holds up around Rodgers expect small dump offs to turn into big gains.

Tackling will be important and the first man to the ball must make the tackle. Yards after catch must be limited through the air and on dump-offs. If the Raiders secondary doesn’t put a shoulder into their Tackles the Packers will chip away at them all day.

Bryan Bulaga/Marshall Newhouse vs. Kamerion Wimbley

The Raiders will deploy Wimbley as a defensive end on both sides, rotating out Lamarr Houston and Desmond Bryant when needed. Wimbley needs a performance reminiscent of his game against San Diego. The Raiders would be wise to keep Wimbley totally out of coverage and let him do all his work on the Packers sub-par offensive tackles.

Aaron Rodgers vs. Rolando McClain

McClain’s job is to keep the Raiders defense on the same page. The Raiders must play a clean mental game to limit Rodgers and confuse him and hope the Raiders can capitalize when the Packers occasionally make a mistake. If the Packers attempt to attack the Raiders weakness against the run it will be McClain’s play that makes them thing otherwise or continue. If Rodgers can easily diagnose the Raiders defense and catches the Raiders defense confused or out of position he will have a field day. Very important that McClain has a big day.

Greg Jennings vs. Stanford Routt

Jennings runs great routes and has the skills to beat almost any cornerback. The Raiders should take their chances with the Packers other offensive weapons and have Routt shadow Jennings. Routt successfully took away Vincent Jackson and he’ll need a similar performance Sunday.

Jermichael Finley vs. Mike Mitchell

The Packers told NFL.com that they will attack Mitchell after seeing something on film. Expect them to do so. Mitchell hasn’t played as well this season as he did last year when he limited Antonio Gates on too occasions. Finley is much like a younger Gates and Mitchell will have his hands full. Mitchell has been out of position on many occasions this year. With Chris Johnson, Michael Huff will be filling in at corner and Matt Giordano at safety, but it is Mitchell’s size, physicality and athleticism that gives him the best chance to limit Finley.

Predictions:

The Raidersblog prediction machine puts the game at Packers 30, Raiders 23 taking only into account offense and defense. The Raiders need to make a couple big plays, score on defense or score on special teams to close the gap. The Raiders can win this game and limiting mental mistakes, including penalties will certainly help them keep it close. If it is close, anything can happen. If the Packers decide to run, that could play into the Raiders strategy by keeping the score down, but the offense needs to show up in a big way without four of the fastest guys in the NFL.

Week 13 Preview: Sling It

 Posted by at 9:44 AM  No Responses »
Dec 042011
 

The Raiders land in Miami to face a rejuvenated Dolphins team. It was a few short weeks ago Tony Sparano was on the chopping block. Now, after winning three of the last four, Sparano’s team looks to play spoiler in the AFC. The Dolphins are finding out what they have in quarterback Matt Moore, the defense is playing well and Reggie Bush may be relevant once again.

It was a week full of distraction for the 7-4 Raiders and perhaps that wasn’t a bad thing. The focus could have been on how the Raiders are still unable to get three offensive playmakers on the field. Jacoby Ford Denarius Moore and Darren McFadden remain out of action. Tommy Kelly did not participate in practice and is questionable with toe injury.

There is good news for the Raiders, they get back veteran corner Chris Johnson and Richard Seymour is getting healthy. The offense has been able to manage without Ford, Moore and McFadden, but the defense has been patchy and can use all the help they can get.

The Dolphins are surprising evenly matched with the Raiders and the game could come down to turnovers and special teams play or a defensive score.

Offense

The Dolphins defense is averaging less than 100 yards allowed on the ground. That’s bad news for Michael Bush. The good news for the Raiders is that the Dolphins have been vulnerable through the air.

Palmer is capable and if he can limit mistakes could have a big day ahead of him. The Raiders should use play action early and as the Dolphins’ linebackers will attempt to fill the run. Expect a couple deep shots and for the Raiders to utilize Marcel Reece and more three and four receiver sets than usual to force the Dolphins to take a linebacker off the field. Any of Darrius Heyward-Bey, Louis Murphy or Chaz Schilens could be in for big days.

In the run game, the Raiders could choose to spread the Dolphins out or focus on zone blocking to setup the passing game in the redzone. The zone running style suits Michael Bush and could help the offensive line recover from the physical domination the Bears laid on them last week. Bush is at his best running north and south and the Raiders will try slip Bush past the line and take their chances with Bush against smaller players.

Jared Veldheer draws a matchup against Cameron Wake. Another tough battle for the Raiders young left tackle. After a string a good games, Julius Peppers got the best of him, but don’t expect that to continue, Peppers, when he wants to, can get after the best. Expect Veldheer to handle Wake and keep him away from Palmer most of the day. Samson Satele has a tall order in front of him in Paul Soliai. Every 3-4 defense needs a good nose tackle and that has been Satele’s weakness for years. If the Raiders are able to run, it will be because of the play of Satele.

Defense

The Dolphins have found a rejuvenated passing game behind Matt Moore and the Raiders are still struggling to collect themselves on defense. Richard Seymour has been nursing a sore knee but it is healing. If Reggie Bush splits wide the Raiders will cover him with a safety such as Mike Mitchell or Michael Huff.

Brandon Marshall is the biggest weapon and one that must be handled for the Raiders to have a good day. Stanford Routt shadowed Vincent Jackson against the Chargers only for Vincent Brown to have a monster day. The Dolphins flank Marshall with Brian Hartline. Hartline is certainly capable of doing damage, but he’s hardly the jump-ball threat that Vincent Brown is.

Lamaar Houston has had a good season and that should continue today. The Dolphins offensive line has weaknesses and Houston can exploit them along with his part-time defensive end friend Kamerion Wimbley. Marc Colombo can be beat and Jake Long has taken steps back this season. The Raiders will attack the edge and hope to pressure Matt Moore into mistakes.

Houston could also see time inside at defensive tackle with Tommy Kelly’s status in doubt due to a toe injury.

As has been the key for the Raiders, the linebackers must step up and stop the run to allow the big men up front to rush the passer. That’s the Raiders game.

Special Teams

Special teams could be the difference between a win and a loss between two surprisingly evenly matched teams. Coverage units need to keep Clyde Gates from getting his feet moving in the return game. Sebastian Janikowski and Shane Lechler need only to continue to do their thing.

X-Factor

 

Would be easy to say turnovers. The team with more usually wins, particularly when the teams are so evenly matched. Perhaps more important for the Raiders to covert in the redzone and score touchdowns. Carson Palmer, Michael Bush and the rest of the offense have struggled punching the ball into the redzone. The Raiders need to turn scoring opportunities into touchdowns and not just field goals.

By The Numbers

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Studs and Duds From Week 12

 Posted by at 7:17 PM  No Responses »
Dec 012011
 

Belated this week, but the show must go on!

STUDS

Marcel Reece

Quite the weapon for the Raiders. Expect him to continue to have a big role for the final five games.

Aaron Curry

Best game as a professional. He’s a good player when he the play is in front of him. A good trade for the Raiders with potential to be great.

Rolando McClain

The linebackers were a big reason for the Raiders success on Sunday. McClain had a good game stopping the run and in coverage. He was in a tough position when Caleb Hanie scrambled to his right as he had to choose between covering Forte or going after Hanie. It was a big pickup for the Bears, but if McClain leaves Forte open it could have been bigger. ***I should revoke this for his actions Wednesday night in Alabama.***

Kamerion Wimbley

He did a bit of everything on Sunday. Still the best pure pass rusher on the team, he stepped up and stopped the run and he had an interception and return that would have been a touchdown if not for a horse-collar tackle at the end of the play.

Tyvon Branch

The stats rarely show it, but Branch is one of the rare players that can play at full speed and make very few mistakes. He was flying around the field on Sunday and he should get credit for being the strength of the Raiders secondary.

DUDS

The Offensive Line

The entire line got dominated by the Bears. The best of the bunch was Cooper Carlisle. The young left side struggled and Veldheer came back to earth against Julius Peppers. I might have expected it from the right side of the line, but it was a tough game for the Raiders left side. Back to work big fellas.

Carson Palmer

He made a few throws he would like back. He turns into a different quarterback when he is pressured and the line did him no favors. Could be a key going forward. He got the job done, which is a testament to him. He’s a very good quarterback, but Sunday was not his best.

Stanford Routt

The touchdown he allowed on a skinny post by Johnny Knox isn’t why he is a dud. He is too passive in run support and his coverage is still inconsistent. He needs to play up to his pay grade.

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