2011 Bold Predictions Revisited

 Posted by at 6:48 PM  No Responses »
Jan 092012
 

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more.

Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1.

Prediction 2:  Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards.

Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2.

Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage.

Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden’s season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3.

Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year.

Result: Twice as many? That wasn’t enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it was actually closer to three times as many. 1 for 4.

Prediction 5: Jason Campbell will have 3000+ yards passing and 20 touchdowns.

Result: Had it not been for the injury, Campbell was well on his way to 300 yards. Based on his first six games he would have been a little shy of the 20 predicted touchdowns. 1 for 5.

Prediction 6: Denarius Moore will return two punts for touchdowns.

Result: The injuries really are killing the bold predictions from 2011 as they did the team. 1 for 6.

Prediction 7: Jacoby Ford will return two kicks for touchdowns (despite the new rules).

Result: Injuries kill the prediction again. Ford had one in eight games. That’s two if he is healthy. I’m giving credit here. 2 for 7.

Prediction 8: Michael Bush will rush for just 500 yards….but with 10 touchdowns.

Result: Bush almost doubled the yardage prediction, but still fell short of the touchdown prediction. 2 for 8.

Prediction 9: The Raiders will have a top 5 offense and lead the league in rushing.

Result: 9th in yards per game and 16th in points per game. 2 for 9.

Prediction 10: The Raiders will win 10 games. (My prediction is 8 games +-2. Since this is for bold predictions, I’ll go with the higher one)

Result: Can’t help but feel like my bold prediction was two defensive stops away. 2 for 10.

Prediction 11: The Raiders will go 4-2 in the division.

Result: 3-3 and a defensive stop away. 2 for 11.

Prediction 12: The Raiders will not miss Zach Miller

Result: They didn’t. Boss was more than capable and the Ra5iders started incorporating the receivers into the offense. 3 for 12.

Prediction 13: The Raiders will not miss Nnamdi Asomugha

Result: A case could certainly be made either way, but the Raiders secondary was pretty bad for long stretches. Asomugha would have helped. 3 for 13.

Prediction 14: The Raiders will beat the Jets in the home opener.

Result: Win. 4 for 14.

Prediction 15: The Raiders will play the Chargers at home week 17 for the AFC West title.

Result: Not exactly what I had envisioned, but it was true. 5 for 15.

Prediction 16: Chuck Bresnahan ‘s defense will intercept 20 passes.

Result: 18 interceptions good for 12th in the league and perhaps the highest Bresnahan’s defense ranked in any category. 5 for 16.

Prediction 17: Rolando McClain will have 120 tackles

Result: Not close and I didn’t really expect this one to be. 5 for 17.

Prediction 18: Chris Johnson will have 8 interceptions.

Result: Injury or not didn’t look like he was going to get there. 5 for 18.

Prediction 19: The Raiders will lead the league in sacks.

Result: 15th ranking not good enough for such a talented group. Injuries certainly hurt. 5 for 19.

Prediction 20: Kamerion Wimbely will have 10 sacks.

Result: Just 8 sacks for Wimbley. Maybe if he wasn’t in coverage so much he could have reached the 10 sack level. 5 for 20.

Hitting on 25 percent of the bold predictions isn’t bad and it certainly could have been better if not for the numerous injuries sustained by the Raiders in 2011.

What’s Going On In The Training Room?

 Posted by at 10:32 AM  1 Response »
Dec 112011
 

Anyone who is a Raiders fan or works writing about football is beyond frustrated with the Raiders organization right now. Not because of the way they’re playing, which is bipolar to say the least, experiencing glimpses of an untouchable championship team, then flashes of a scrappy high school squad. The frustration comes from within, with regard to injuries. Call it self-serving, but many people need to know what to expect on Sunday, and with these obscure, clearly false injury reports, fans are getting restless.

A key component to the Silver and Black’s mystique is an air of secrecy. Up until the time of his death, the team and family never let on how truly sick Mr. Davis was. This would take attention away from the team on the field, which no one inside the walls of the facility in Alameda wanted. This same tactic is being employed with the Raiders current injured players.

Darren McFadden has been out for weeks with a foot injury that they’ve played down from the beginning. He’s still not practicing and no one has any idea when he’s coming back. Recently, Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford went down too, both with what was made to sound like minor injuries and promises that they would be back soon. Taiwan Jones is also out and no one knows when the rookie might help out Michael Bush carry the load.

This week the Raiders are going up against the undefeated champion Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field. If the Raiders are playing up to the very best of their ability, they have a good chance of beating the Packers. Have extra drinks on tap for celebration. However, if they play like they did last week have extra drinks on tap to make you forget. There’s always a chance that the injured players can come back, but the patience of Raiders fans is waning.

A little honestly never hurt anyone (not a lot, just a little) and everyone wants to know what’s really going on inside that training room. How much longer will McFadden have “DNP” next to his name on the injury report? At this rate, should we expect to see Denarius Moore, Jacoby Ford and Taiwan Jones again this year?

The Raiders spinning injury information, trying to calm the fan base is not working anymore. The fans are starting to expect that anyone on the injury report after the game Sunday will not play for the rest of the year because no one is letting the fans know what’s really going on inside the training room.

Hold tight Raiders fans and focus on the players who are on the field. Carson Palmer is getting better as he falls in sync with this team. T.J. Houshmandzadeh finally caught his first touchdown pass as a Raider last week and Michael Bush is keeping the ground game going single-handedly.

Week 12 Offensive Preview: Avoid Turnovers

 Posted by at 4:16 PM  No Responses »
Nov 252011
 

With Jay Cutler going down to injury the Chicago Bears will start Caleb Hanie on Sunday. Hanie has played well in short spurts, but will make his first career start on the road. I’m sure the record for quarterbacks in their first career starts on the road isn’t good. The focus shifts on what the Raiders can accomplish on offense versus an opportunistic Bears defense.

Rushing

Fortunately for the Raiders, the Bears weakness has been against the running game. The Bears rush defense has allowed 4.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs, but only 6 rushing touchdowns. Raiders will want to run the ball in the middle of the field and attempt to pass in the redzone for opportunities to score. Expect Michael Bush to have a big day on the ground, but don’t expect too many touchdowns as the Bears clamp down against the run in the redzone. The Raiders offensive lineman must get to the second level in the running game and put clean blocks on Lance Briggs and Brian Urlacher to spring Michael Bush into the secondary.

The Bears linebackers struggle with speed backs as evidenced by Jahvid Best’s 163-yard rushing performance in week five.  If Taiwan Jones is healthy enough to play he should get more carries to spell Bush and could finally break off a long run, but the Bears will be looking to force turnovers and Jones needs to focus on ball security or the Raiders will again give Bush 30 carries. Marcel Reece received more carries than normal last week, expect him to be more active in the passing game this week leaving the rushing duties to Bush and Jones. The Bears corners can tackle and the Raiders receivers will need to block and keep them from getting involved in run support.

Passing

The Bears primary weapon against the pass in defensive end Julius Peppers. The Raiders counter with Jared Veldheer to keep Peppers away from Carson Palmer. The Bears corners are physical and play short zones close to the line of scrimmage leaving the safeties to help deep. Carson Palmer will need to thread passes between the zones and be mindful of linebackers bailing into coverage. If Darrius Heyward-Bey is able to play, this game suites his abilities. Intermediate outs and slants can decimate the Bears defense if the backs can keep the linebackers sucked close to the line of scrimmage. The backs need to read Briggs and Urlacher bailing into zone and become check-down options for Palmer.

The struggle will be in the redzone as gaps in the zone are more condensed. The Raiders should attack the center of the field with a tight end and the perimeter of the field with Marcel Reece and force the Bears defense to cover the maximum amount of space.

Overall

The Bears are a good example of a bend, don’t break defense. The Bears will allow yardage, but force turnovers or the opponents to settle for field goals. It is very important for the Raiders to take care of the football this week. The Bears zone defense is good at creating confusion in the passing game and the Bears defense loves force fumbles when the ball-carrier gets careless. The Raiders run game should carry them once again, but don’t count out the passing game in the redzone.

By The Numbers

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Raiders’ Week 11 Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 2:21 PM  1 Response »
Nov 182011
 

Quarterback

Carson Palmer is a name that is generating a lot of buzz this week, partly because of his solid stat line in Week 10 (299 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT). It also has to do with the fact that a lot of quarterbacks are injured in fantasy land (Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Michael Vick). Facing off against a depleted Vikings secondary this week, Palmer is a recommended start this week. The Vikings placed cornerback Antoine Winfield in injured reserve and will be counting on Benny Sapp. Unfortunately for Sapp, he will most likely going up against one of the hottest receivers in the NFL in Denarius Moore. With a plethora of options in the passing game, fantasy owners should be able to count on Palmer against a weak Vikings’ secondary this week.

Running Backs

Michael Bush has been a force in the running game, scoring double-digit fantasy games in three straight games. While Darren McFadden has been seen out of his protective walking boot, he has been ruled out for week 11. Fantasy owners can look forward to a full load of work for Bush. Clearly, Bush is running with authority and is making a case to be a full-time starter for the Silver and Black next year or elsewhere. Take advantage of his production while you can. Taiwan Jones is the change-of-pace back, but it’s very hard to trust him. He has shown spurts of breakaway ability, but his chances are limited. Additionally, Jones is struggling in pass-protection, making him an even riskier play as the coaches might want to employ Bush on all three downs.

Wide Receivers

Denarius Moore lit it up last week vs. the Chargers to the tune of 5 receptions for 123 yards and two TDs.  Moore is the best fantasy option when it comes to the Raiders’ wide receiving corps in terms of being the safest option as well as the one possessing the most upside. Consider him a WR2 play this week with the upside of a WR1. Held without a catch for the past two games, Darrius Heyward-Bey is a droppable candidate this late into the season. Sure he may be able to turn things around, but it’s a risky proposition. Acquire depth elsewhere as you make the push towards fantasy playoffs. The same can be said about Jacoby Ford who is battling an injury.

Tight Ends

Kevin Boss showed signs of life last week catching two passes for 32 yards. He could develop into a nice option for CP3, but fantasy players should take a wait and see approach when it comes to Boss and the other Raiders’ tight ends. The Raiders just haven’t used the tight end as a weapon in the passing game.

Kicker

Fantasy owners who own Sebastian Janikowski have been frustrated as of late due to his injury. According to Contra Costa Times, Janikowski did not practice Thursday and Hue Jackson called him 97.2% healthy. Roll the dice with Janikowski or look into the availability of Rob Bironas of the Titans. When his team is playing well and Chris Johnson is running well  it gives him both the opportunity for PATs and field goals.

Defense/Special Teams

Don’t be tempted to play the Raiders’ defense or special teams this week even if they are facing the Vikings. The Vikings have played their opponents tough (disregard their last game vs. Packers game as it was a blowout). The Raiders’ defensive unit has been tough to rely on, giving fantasy owners negative points in three games this year. Also, the loss of Ford in the return game makes them a risky start as the Vikings have an emerging offense led by the poise of Christian Ponder and the dangerous Adrian Peterson and Percy Harvin.

Raiders vs. Browns Fantasy Outlook

 Posted by at 8:33 AM  No Responses »
Oct 152011
 

Quarterback

Jason Campbell had a very average game last week, throwing for 190 yards. His games have been alternating pretty steadily from the 100s to 300s. If the trend continues this week, look for him to get somewhere in the 300s for yardage. He is averaging two touchdowns and is low risk when it comes to interceptions. Plan for at least one or each for Campbell when choosing which QB to play.

Running Back

Last week was Darren McFadden’s worst all season with only 51 yards and no touchdowns. In that particular game, the carries he did make were crucial, but that doesn’t always translate into fantasy points. This week he should get somewhere around 100 yards with at least one touchdown. Michael Bush also had his worst game last week with a just 9 yards. This will not happen again. The whole running game was a bit off last week, but this week the team is at home so look for Bush to get his standard 30 yards and maybe vulture a touchdown. Cartwright’s yards came on special teams so you can’t count on him for fantasy points. Taiwan Jones is in the same boat. He’ll likely get you no points.

Wide Receivers

Darrius Heyward-Bey, one of Al Davis’ latest controversial and bold moves, came through last week in a big way vs. the Houston Texans. In fact, DHB has 11 catches for 214 yards in the past 2 weeks, making him a viable pick-up in fantasy circles.  Coach Davis has gotten a lot of flak for reaching for freakishly athletic talents with blazing speed. DHB was the first the first WR taken in the 2009 draft ahead of supposed can’t miss stud WR Michael Crabtree for this very reason. The reason pundits and analysts look down on DHB was his route-running and questionable ability to catch the ball. Coach Davis lives by the mantra you can teach ability, but you can’t teach speed and knew that all DHB needed was good coaching and the belief his team has in him to deliver. And in his third year in the league, Coach Davis’ vision for DHB is finally coming into fruition. The time has come for many fantasy owners to buy his stock and DHB is a strong WR3 start this week and viable WR2 option vs. the Browns who may be missing top cornerback Joe Haden.

Additionally, the Raiders are also looking for the return of Louis Murphy back into this offense. Fantasy-wise, this doesn’t bode well for Denarius Moore or Jacoby Ford. After a fast start, Moore put up a zero last week vs. the Texans despite his high snap count and targets. After DHB, Moore makes for a strong sneaky flex start if you need his services. This Hue Jackson-led offense is looking Moore’s way and is counting on his big play ability to take the pressure off Darren McFadden. Look for Ford to return kicks and be a viable threat in that front.

Tight End

Kevin Boss was not productive last week vs. the Texans in an emotional game. Look for Boss’ role in this offense to fluctuate, making him just a fantasy prospect at this point. The tight-end position is deep this year and you can look elsewhere. Looking across the sidelines, Ben Watson is a solid plug and play candidate for fantasy as he is getting a ton of work with Colt McCoy actively looking towards the tight ends this year.

Kicker

Seabass – Nothing to see here. He’s a weapon from this team, making the Raiders that much better in close games knowing that Janikowski tied a league long 63 yard field goal earlier this year.  I would suggest even keeping him on your roster during the Raiders’ bye week in Week 8 and trying to find a kicker without dropping him.

Defense/Special Teams

Savvy fantasy players will mostly play defenses by matchups. If you employ this strategy, the Raiders D/ST is a viable option this week vs. the Browns. Nothing about this offense scares you as the team is looking for its identity after its bye. Coach Pat Shurmur has said that he is going back to feeding Peyton Hillis the ball. While he is a bruiser, the Browns is not likely to put up 30 or 40 points this week. The Raiders’ special teams also have upside with Jacoby Ford returning kicks for potential scores.

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