Raiders Free Agency Preview: Why Oakland Must Pursue These 11 Players

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Mar 122012
 

At 1 p.m. PDT, March 13, 2012 the NFL’s free agency period starts and the Raiders must be under the salary cap. There are a number of player contracts that have not yet restructured or otherwise addressed which will likely have an impact on the salary cap and the Raiders’ free agency plans.

Kamerion Wimbley

The two sides aren’t talking and extra guarantees are triggered on Friday and Wimbley is likely to be released before they do. Wimbley’s release would save the Raiders just $2 million in cap space and leave the Raiders without a strong-side linebacker on the roster.

John Henderson

His contract is due to pay him $4.75 million in 2012. It’s far too much for part-time backup with Henderson’s miles. The Raiders would save approximately $4 million by releasing Henderson, but that also leaves the Raiders with a need for a run-stuffing defensive tackle

Tommy Kelly

Kelly’s cap number is nearly $9 million and one would expect a restructured contract would have reduced his $6 million in base salary in order to save the Raiders valuable cap space, but nothing has been announced.

With only a few hours to go before Kelly’s $8.9 million cap number counts against the Raiders, one has to wonder if Kelly is in the team’s future plans.

If the Raiders released both Kelly and Henderson, they would either need to move Lamarr Houston inside or begin the search for a defensive tackle in free agency.

Once the Raiders are comfortably under the cap, they can start trolling the bottom of the free agent market to see if they might be able to land a player or two. Don’t expect the Raiders to land any big fish, they don’t have the cap space to lure the top free agents.

There are a few free agents on the market that can help the Raiders that aren’t elite players and the Raiders should aggressively pursue them.

OC Option 1: Chris Meyers

Greg Knapp has returned to the Raiders and will re-introduce the zone-blocking system to the offensive line. Knapp spent the last two seasons in Houston coaching the quarterbacks and would have worked closely with Meyers. So would have the Raiders new offensive line coach Frank Pollack, as he was the assistant offensive line coach in Houston last season.

Considering Meyer’s ties to the coaching staff and the Raiders’ desire to get a young offensive line up to speed in the scheme quickly, Meyers should be one of the Raiders biggest priorities in free agency.

Meyers shouldn’t cost considerable amounts of money to sign as he only fits in the zone-blocking system.

OC Option 2: Scott Wells

If the Raiders miss out on Meyers they can always take a look at Wells. Wells has a link to the Raiders of his own having been selected by the Green Bay Packers in the seventh round of the 2004 NFL draft during which time Reggie McKenzie was responsible for scouting college players for the Packers.

Wells is also well-versed in the zone-blocking scheme and could help the Raiders jump start the transition. Like Meyers, Wells fits best in the zone-blocking system and that will keep his cost in an affordable range.

DT/NT Option 1: Broderick Bunkley

If the Raiders release Henderson they will be in need of a two-down defensive tackle to support the run.Bunkley played under Dennis Allen last season and fits the two-down run support role perfectly.

Best of all, Bunkley doesn’t figure to cost an arm and a leg in free agency.

DT/NT Option 2: Aubrayo Franklin

Should the Raiders want a nose tackle that offers nearly zero pass rush ability, they might look at an affordable option like Franklin.

Franklin would be great against the run, but the Raiders would have to make sure they had more of a pass rush on the field in nickel and dime situations.

The traditional nose tackle that offers little to no pass rush is a dying breed and the Raiders will have to determine if a specialist like Franklin is worth the cap dollars.

ILB Option 1: Joe Mays

The Raiders desperately need players that can support the run and Dennis Allen also coached Mays last season. While Mays’ coverage ability is merely average, he’ll come cheap enough that the Raiders would use him primarily on running downs.

Rolando McClain would remain the team’s top ILB, but Mays would enable the Raiders to show more 3-4 looks and Mays would definitely push McClain for playing time as the middle linebacker.

OLB Option 1: Manny Lawson

The Bengals turned Lawson into a two-down strong-side linebacker playing in the 4-3 defense. The release of Wimbley would create just that type of need on the Raiders roster.

Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver coached Lawson for five years in San Francisco from 2006 to 2010 and knows his strengths and weaknesses. Lawson excels at defending the run, something the Raiders haven’t done well over the last 10 seasons.

The Raiders shouldn’t waste any time bringing Lawson in for a visit because, although Lawson isn’t likely to be a hot commodity, the market for outside linebackers is extremely thin.

ILB/OLB Option 2: Jameel McClain

McClain is primarily a two-down run stopper, but he’s not terrible in coverage either. He’s been over-shadowed by Ray Lewis in Baltimore, but has played well enough to garner some interest as a free agent.

An added bonus is that McClain can play inside in the 3-4 and probably slide outside in the four-man front. That should fit perfectly with Allen’s multiple front defense.

CB Option 1: Richard Marshall

Marshall produced nicely in cornerback in 2011, but he didn’t start until late in the year. Marshall is 27 and entering his prime, provided the market for his services doesn’t push his salary out of the Raiders’ range, he should and will be considered a starter with good potential.

Raiders should be heavily interested in the available cornerbacks and don’t be surprised if Marshall is one of the primary targets. His best fit is outside and not covering the slot. If the Raiders decide to continue to use Huff as the slot cornerback Marshall would figure to be a good fit outside.

CB Option 2: Terrell Thomas

It will be difficult for any team to give Thomas a full value contract he deserves because he is coming off a torn ACL. However, Thomas was on of the best when it came to defending the run from the cornerback position. He’s been liability in coverage at times, but that’s largely the product of the New York Giants pass rush as Jason Pierre-Paul had not yet burst upon the scene.

The Raiders would roll the dice on Thomas’ health as he is just 27 and would still solidify their group of cornerbacks.

CB Option 3: Tracy Porter

Porter is looking for his big payday, but if his cost remains reasonable the Raiders could be in the mix. With only sophomore’s DeMarcus Van Dyke and Chimdi Chekwa left at the position the Raiders will be looking to add depth at cornerback via free agency and the draft.

Porter had a down year and that’s a concern considering he was playing for a contract. Dennis Allen is familiar with Porter from his time as secondary coach for the New Orleans Saints.

Expect the Raiders to a least inquire and hope the market remains cool for Porter’s services.

CB Option 4: William Gay

Gay is yet another cornerback entering his prime that the Raiders should take a long look at in free agency. Gay isn’t spectacular at anything, but he’s a solid cornerback that is a more than capable second or third cornerback.

Gay should also remain affordable as teams will recall him surrendering a 30-yard touchdown to Eddie Royal in the playoffs last season.,

Predicting the Raiders Defensive Starters

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Mar 052012
 

The Oakland Raiders may not do much shuffling on the offensive side of the ball, but the 29th ranked defense will be altered.

Stanford Routt has already been released and Reggie McKenzie promises even more change. Of the 11 positions on defense, only two have unquestioned starters.

Had the Raiders been healthy, the starters at the end of the season would have been nearly identical to the starters in Week 1. The lone exception would be Aaron Curry starting over Quentin Groves.

Since the Raiders will use both three-man and four-man fronts, we’ll have to predict the starters for both schemes.

 

RDE Matt Shaughnessy (4-3 only)

Last season, Shaughnessy was among the favorites during training camp to have a breakout, but hurt his shoulder and missed 13 games. He’ll return in 2012 and hope to revive the buzz he generated last offseason. Shaughnessy managed to record just one sack in three games in 2011 and will be ready to add to that total.

The introduction of the 3-4 will be very interesting for Shaughnessy and his only scheme fit appears to be as an end in the 4-3.

 

LDE Lamarr Houston

Houston registered one sack in 13 games after registering five in his rookie campaign in 2010. He’s stout against the run, but he can be neutralized when forced to rush the passer.

Houston’s best opportunity to rush the passer comes from the defensive tackle position in the 4-3, but Richard Seymour will remain with the Raiders for at least another season.

Houston is scheme diverse and should be able to translate into a nice 3-4 defensive end. Instead of coming off the field on passing downs like he has the past two seasons, Houston will stay on field.

 

DT Tommy Kelly

Kelly has been rumored to be on the chopping block, but he’s a decent bet to return and should restructure the mega deal he signed in 2008. Kelly quietly put up a career year in 2011 with 7.5 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, 5 passes defended and 1 interception.

Houston gets the starting nod over Kelly at 3-4 end, but Kelly could be just as effective playing the 5-technique. The question with Kelly is if he is the right guy to defend the run or if he would be better suited for the 3-technique a position locked down by Richard Seymour.

 

DT/RDE Richard Seymour

McKenzie made a commitment to Seymour when the deadline came and went that made half of Seymour’s $15 million base salary in 2012 guaranteed. That means McKenzie will need to work out an extension with Seymour that reduces his cap number.

Seymour has experience running the 3-4 and 4-3 fronts and would start in both fronts. He’d continue to have good success as a 4-3 defensive tackle from the 3-technique and would start at LDE as a 5-technique defensive end. He’s one of the few locks on the defense.

 

OLB Manny Lawson

Aaron Curry played well after coming over from Seattle, but there was a reason he was traded and he’s due $5.7 million in 2012. It’s hard to imagine the Raiders wanting to pay Curry anything close to what his contract has paid him to this point and that will force the Raiders to go in a different direction.

The Raiders will look for a more affordable option in free agency and hopefully they will find an OLB who is equally effective in the 4-3 and 3-4 defenses. There aren’t many OLB options in free agency so this will be one of the more interesting positions to watch.

Lawson has experience in both schemes and with defensive coordinator Jason Tarver.

Lawson isn’t great at rushing the passer, but uses his natural athleticism. He’s underrated in coverage and a good defender against the run. He’s a well-rounded linebacker that is being undervalued by the rest of the league.

 

MLB/ILB Rolando McClain

It’s a make or break year for McClain. Playing more of the 3-4 defense will take some of the pressure off McClain and he should be able to play faster. However, effort has also been an issue with McClain and that’s something Dennis Allen and his staff needs to address right away.

Despite lackluster play to this point in his career the Raiders will give McClain his chance at redemption. It’s up to McClain to take advantage of his second chance and shut-up his critics.

 

ILB Joe Mays

The Raiders don’t have a lot of cap space and will find it difficult to add a ILB in free agency. Travis Goethel is a huge unknown, but he’d be a consideration for this position as well.

Dennis Allen was calling in the plays to Mays in Denver and the familiarity will help the Raiders defense get up to speed in Allen’s defense. Mays shouldn’t break the bank, he’ll play in 3-4 alignments and provide competition for McClain as at MLB.

 

OLB Kamerion Wimbley

There has been a lot of talk about Wimbley and how he’ll be released if he doesn’t restructure his contract. The fact that this has all come out in the media suggests the Raiders are having issues negotiating with Wimbley’s agent.

Wimbley has a ton of leverage and the Raiders need to restore fiscal responsibility. The Raiders can release Wimbley and suggest it’s part of the regime change in Oakland, but the truth is they want Wimbley back.

Something will get done at the last minute that keeps Wimbley in Oakland.

 

CB Terrell Thomas

He’s coming off an injury, but was a solid cornerback for the Giants for the past few seasons. He’s more of a number two cornerback, but the Raiders can’t afford a top option.

When you think about which players can be signed to a reasonable contract and fit the new defensive scheme, Thomas comes to mind. He’s a poor man’s Cortland Finnegan.

 

FS Brandon Underwood

The Raiders picked up ex-Packer Underwood as one of McKenzie’s first signings. It would be easy to look at Underwood as a potential starter at cornerback considering he was signed shortly after the release of Stanford Routt, but that’s a mistake.

The Packers were trying to convert Underwood into a free safety, something the Raiders should try to continue. If Underwood can stay focused, he’s got enough talent to start. The Raiders need options in the secondary and with a limited budget the Raiders will be forced to find a starter or two with minimum salaries.

 

SS Tyvon Branch

The Raiders put the franchise tag on Branch and will continue to work on a long-term contract. Branch hasn’t been featured in the Raiders defensive scheme to this point, but that should be changing.

Branch is an extremely underrated player in the secondary and the fans will finally get a chance to see it in 2012.

 

CB Michael Huff

Huff has a huge cap number, but recently tweeted how excited he was about Dennis Allen’s defense. That would be an awkward conversation if McKenzie planned on releasing Huff.

Huff likely will or has restructured his contract to be more favorable for the Raiders, and the Raiders may have a hard time finding solid cornerbacks in free agency.

Safeties aren’t easy to find in free agency either, but McKenzie won’t be able to justify the cost on two safeties so Huff will shift to cornerback.

Free Agency Strategy: Play Moneyball

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Feb 272012
 

A lot has been made of the Raiders lack of draft selections in the 2012 NFL draft. The Raiders have just two, but are likely to be awarded a few more by the NFL when they announce compensatory picks in late March.

The best pick that can be awarded is a pick at the end of the third round and compensatory selections can’t be traded.

In the NFL there is a salary cap and salary floor to keep all the teams as competitive as possible, but when it comes to draft selection they are traded like currency for acquiring players or more selections.

With such limited resources this offseason, the Oakland Raiders may need to take a page from the Oakland Athletics to stay competitive.

The most important lesson of Moneyball was the A’s determined a way to find value in the market. They did more with less and that’s exactly what the Raiders need to do this offseason.

 

Don’t Overvalue the Cornerbacks

Four of the 12 playoff teams in 2011 were ranked in the top half of the league in pass defense and three of those four teams were ranked in the top four overall. The Cincinnati Bengals were the lone exception having the 9th ranked passing defense in 2011.

The remaining eight playoff teams were all well below average pass defenses and the four worst pass defenses were all playoff teams.

It was an extraordinary year for passing and a terrible year for pass defense. Most teams will be in the market for help in secondary having determined the secondary is now an area of weakness. There are no shortage of options at cornerback to assist these teams.

It’s obvious that a great pass defense is not required to win a Super Bowl and with limited draft picks and salary cap room, the Raiders should play closer attention to other areas and not overvalue the available cornebacks.

The market is going to inflate the value of the available options, particularly Brent Grimes, Brandon Carr, Cortland Finnegan and Carlos Rodgers.

The Raiders should look for bargain options like Tim Jennings, Williams Gay, Richard Marshall and Terrell Thomas to see if one might be able to help solidify the group, but the Raiders should avoid the inflated costs of the top cornerbacks.

 

Buy Generic

The Raiders have some decisions to make when it comes to player contracts. Kamerion Wimbley, Aaron Curry and Michael Huff need to drastically reduce their cap numbers to stick around.

There is still time to work things out, but the Raiders strategy has to be to find cheaper alternatives that can accomplish the same tasks if one or more of them are released. In some cases the generics could actually be better which could steer McKenzie to release and not worry about restructuring the player.

Manny Lawson would be a good sign a.nd fill-in at linebacker Defensive coordinator Jason Tarver was his position coach when he played for the 49ers. Lawson is similar to Curry. He can rush, but he’s not a particularly good pass rusher, but he’s solid against the run. Dennis Allen would be able to utilize Lawson is a variety of ways as a blitzer.

The Baltimore Ravens have plenty of free agents and they will not be able to sign them all. One that stands out is strong-side linebacker Jarrett Johnson. Johnson is particularly good at stopping the run, which has been a problem for the Raiders since 2002.

Johnson will be a popular free agent, but he’s been extremely durable. Johnson has played in 129 straight games for the Ravens, a franchise record. Johnson is 31 and that could keep his costs down on the open market.

Jim Leonhard has been extremely consistent for the New York Jets, but he’s 29 and hasn’t been able to stay healthy. He’s not likely to command a huge sum in free agency and the Raiders could use a strong cover safety if they are forced to put Michael Huff on the street inside of pay him $8 million in 2012.

 

Find a Big Man

If the Raiders are planning to play the 3-4 with any regularity they will need a nose tackle that can draw the double team up the middle.

John Henderson is likely to be released due to his contact and that leaves room for run defender on the inside.

Available nose tackle’s include Antonio Garay, Sione Pouha, Paul Soliai, Aubrayo Franklin and Kelly Gregg.

Franklin and Gregg would be the perfect players for the Raiders considering their cost would be minimal. The Raiders wouldn’t need a full-time player unless they planned on shifting to the 3-4 permanently.

Pouha, Garay and Soliai are likely to be cost prohibitive for the Raiders and they will look at some of the cheaper options.

If Tommy Kelly is released the Raiders could look at Broderick Bunkley to play defensive tackle. He improved drastically under Dennis Allen in Denver and was one of the better run defenders in the entire NFL last season.

A linebacker and a tackle could help solidify a run defense that has ranked routinely in the bottom of the league.

 

Get a Bush Replacement

Unless the Raiders can work out a favorable deal with running back Michael Bush, he’ll hit the open market where he is likely to fetch more than the Raiders are willing to pay. It would be a surprise if the Raiders placed the franchise tag on Bush consider the hefty price tag.

Bush departure would leave a hole behind oft-injured starter Darren McFadden. Oft-injured slasher Taiwan Jones and special teams ace Rock Cartwright are the other two backs. Jones may or may not be ready for an expanded roles in the offense. Cartwright is strictly a special teams player, but he’s also a free agent.

The Raiders either need a big bruiser or just another back that can run Greg Knapps’s zone-blocking system effectively.

Good news for the Raiders is that the market for backs is deep and not many are buying.

BenJarvus Green-Ellis would be a good option because he knows how to pass protect having come from New England. Greg Knapp is much more run heavy, but it is nice knowing that the player in the game can put a body on someone to spare the quarterback a hit.

Mike Tolbert is another back that knows how to pass protect and would be great second option to McFadden. He’s built like a bowling ball and could be uses in rush and pass situations.

Justin Forsett would be an inexpensive option for the Raiders. He’s not a big back, but he had a career year in Greg Knapp’s zone-blocking system. He’d be a good pickup as a true backup to McFadden and may actually be able to steal enough carries away from McFadden to keep him fresh.

McKenzie should also keep open the possibility that Bush could be re-signed at a reasonable price.

 

Take Advantage of Value in the Marketplace

If Reggie McKenzie realizes a certain player is being undervalued by market, he should sign the player and rehab his value.

The Raiders could have 6 or 7 good defensive ends and still sign a defensive end that is being drastically undervalued. It’s better to sign a good player for an affordable price and let the coaching staff worry about how to utilize the player.

There’s always room on the roster for good players, so if McKenzie thinks the player is good, the coaches will figure out how to put him in position to win games.

While the Raiders will be hunting in free agency for players at positions of need, they should also keep their options open at other positions to see if the league might be undervaluing receiver, defensive end, offensive tackle, etc.

That means the Raiders should be talking to everyone, including the top free agent receivers to get an idea for what the market is going to look like and what sort of deal the players are expecting.

It may be that the Raiders need to strike now to land a number one receiver, but they wont know until there is competition in the marketplace.