Over at Grantland , the great Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting piece on the year-to-year ebb and flow of NFL teams, as it pertains to their records. The basis of his piece was examining whether 2nd half hot streaks carry over into the following season, but he also provided some good statistics on the well known idea that great teams regress and awful teams usually improve the following season. As it applies to the Raiders, coming off a 4-12 season, Barnwell found that since 1990, 88.2% of 4 win teams improved their record the following season, 5.9% got worse, and 5.9% won 4 games again. So should we expect the Raiders to improve on 4-12 this upcoming season? Short answer is: yes. Given that 88.2% of 4 win teams are winning the more games the next season, it would seem logical to expect Oakland will be a better team this upcoming season. The big X-factor for Oakland this season will be the quarterback situation. Matt Flynn will likely be the starter, and he's an interesting case. ...
Much like the understanding that the NFL has become a passing league, it has also has adopted the "running back by committee" model. In a day and age where running backs seem to be a dime a dozen, teams are less likely to commit to one guy and therefore take on the RBBC approach to the season. With the mindset of having multiple backs sharing the touches, many also assume that each team needs a "speed back" and a "power back". The idea, of course, being that the power back gets the tough yards and wears down the defense while the speed back plays the finesse role and provides the home run threat to the offense. The last few years the Raiders have had the luxury of a backfield that consisted of Darren McFadden and Michael Bush. In some ways, it seemed to be the perfect combination power and speed that would be a nightmare for any defense. Except when you break down the games when both running backs were healthy last year, you saw more of McFadden wearing do...
The Oakland Raiders came into the offseason with salary cap issues and needing to improve a team that finished a disappointing 8-8 last season. New general manager Reggie McKenzie was hired to reshape the Raiders' front office and establish a new philosophy to guide the team into the future. McKenzie has a plan and as time passes his philosophies will slowly be revealed. So far, McKenzie has made a flurry of moves designed to help the Raiders reach short-term and long-term goals such as getting under the salary cap and shedding back-loaded contracts that would have handicapped his plans in 2013 and beyond. A lot of activity doesn't always indicate a lot of change. As it stands, the Raiders will return 16 of 22 starters. What does the Raiders activity or lack of activity mean for the team in 2012? 1. Reggie McKenzie wants to win and knows how to build a team to do it. Overreacting, overvaluing and overpaying is not a recipe for success in the NFL. The most successful teams ...
Allow me for a moment to walk the Raider Nation through a timeline of Hue Jackson's tenure with the Raiders. 2010 Al Davis hires Hue Jackson to revamp an offense that hadn't been good in many years. With the aide of competent quarterback play and a healthy Darren McFadden, Jackson is wildly successful in his first year. 2011 Tom Cable is fired for an 8-8 season and Hue Jackson is promoted to Head Coach. Situation He is working with a roster constructed by Al Davis and defensive coaches hired by Al Davis. October 8, 2011 Al Davis dies and Hue Jackson is forced to take a more active role in managing player personnel because-although unqualified-he is the most qualified person in the building. Mark Davis begins to gather his advisory team or John Madden, Ron Wolf and Ken Herock. Problem 1 Hue Jackson loses his starting quarterback to injury for the season. Jackson knows with the passing of Al Davis that a new front office would be coming in and in all likelihood he would be fired ...
Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more. Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1. Prediction 2: Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards. Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2. Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage. Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden's season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3. Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year. Result: Twice as many? That wasn't enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it w...
While the year is coming to a close, the Raiders’ season is very much still alive. With playoff hopes looming, there are few things the Raiders need to do both this current season and in the season to come. This means starting the new year off with a bang against the Division rival San Diego Chargers. The Chargers have become a formidable opponent in recent weeks, especially amidst the Raiders' inconsistent play. So, these are some of the resolutions the Raiders need to make in the upcoming year: No More Penalties While they've been better about minimizing penalties recently, certainly better than they were at the beginning of the season, the Raiders still need some work on avoiding penalties altogether. Many people complain that their team is unfairly penalized, but the fact of the matter is that the Raiders are like a team of Ndamukong Suh's, meaning that the refs already have their eye on the guys. Just this season, the team has given up over 1,200 yards in penalties, wh...
The Raiders simply must win their next two games to have a chance at the playoffs. The Chiefs are playing for the playoffs themselves and will need to win the last two games. This is a late December trip to Arrowhead with playoff implications despite struggles along the way for both teams. Reeling after an explicable defensive meltdown last week at home versus the Detroit Lions, the Raiders will attempt to pick their season off the scrap heap Sunday in Kansas City. Temperatures will be win the mid 40s and mild, not what one would expect for a late season trip to Arrowhead stadium. The mild temperatures mean the Raiders will have dodged their cold-weather games this season. It didn't make any difference in their blowout loss to the Packers two weeks ago and the Raiders are hoping to avoid any repeats. The last time the Raiders faced the Chiefs, Todd Haley was the Head Coach and Matt Cassel was the Quarterback for the Chiefs. Fast forward 11 weeks and Romeo Crennel and Kyle Orton are...
Anyone who is a Raiders fan or works writing about football is beyond frustrated with the Raiders organization right now. Not because of the way they're playing, which is bipolar to say the least, experiencing glimpses of an untouchable championship team, then flashes of a scrappy high school squad. The frustration comes from within, with regard to injuries. Call it self-serving, but many people need to know what to expect on Sunday, and with these obscure, clearly false injury reports, fans are getting restless. A key component to the Silver and Black's mystique is an air of secrecy. Up until the time of his death, the team and family never let on how truly sick Mr. Davis was. This would take attention away from the team on the field, which no one inside the walls of the facility in Alameda wanted. This same tactic is being employed with the Raiders current injured players. Darren McFadden has been out for weeks with a foot injury that they've played down from the beginnin...
Quarterback Carson Palmer is lighting up the field now, and helping to win football games. With the recent slew of quarterback injuries league-wide, you should seriously consider picking up Palmer. He's back in the saddle and playing well, even in the Fantasy world. Last week he threw for 300+ yards, but had one interception. Depending on if you have a league that's focused more on yards than points then play him, however, if you rely heavily on a QB's ability to score, he may not be as beneficial. Last week he threw for no touchdowns, but his stats were great. Again, play him if you're looking for yardage, but do so while accounting for one or two interceptions. Running Backs Michael Bush is a must play this week. Darren McFadden in still out with no word on when he'll return. Rookie Taiwan Jones also did not practice on Wednesday, which doesn't bode well for his chances on Sunday. These factors taken into account, Bush is going to get a ton of carries. While h...
The Raiders success on offense this Sunday in Minnesota relies on the massive shoulders of the offensive line. The big boys up front dominated the Chargers defensive line last Thursday night, providing big holes for Michael Bush and a solid pocket for Carson Palmer. But it’s a horse of a different color waiting for them in Minnesota: a big purple horse wearing number 69. Match-ups To Watch LT Jared Veldheer vs. DE Jared Allen Jared Allen leads the Vikings front seven. He is a tenacious, relentless pass rusher, and leads the NFL with 13.5 sacks. His motor never stops, he has a wide range of pass rush moves and has embarrassed even the league’s best tackles. He can electrify the loud raucous crowd in Minnesota with one play, and it’ll be up to 6’8” left tackle Jared Veldheer to slow him down. Don’t expect him to shoulder the burden alone, Hue Jackson will have tight ends Kevin Boss or Brandon Myers stay in and pass block on some plays, and he may also chip Allen with a back....
Quarterback Carson Palmer is a name that is generating a lot of buzz this week, partly because of his solid stat line in Week 10 (299 yards, 2 TD passes, 1 INT). It also has to do with the fact that a lot of quarterbacks are injured in fantasy land (Matt Schaub, Matt Cassel, Michael Vick). Facing off against a depleted Vikings secondary this week, Palmer is a recommended start this week. The Vikings placed cornerback Antoine Winfield in injured reserve and will be counting on Benny Sapp. Unfortunately for Sapp, he will most likely going up against one of the hottest receivers in the NFL in Denarius Moore. With a plethora of options in the passing game, fantasy owners should be able to count on Palmer against a weak Vikings' secondary this week. Running Backs Michael Bush has been a force in the running game, scoring double-digit fantasy games in three straight games. While Darren McFadden has been seen out of his protective walking boot, he has been ruled out for week 11. Fantasy o...
The Raiders are one of the most up and down teams in the NFL, but with good reason. At the beginning of the season, they rose with the Autumn wind, fueled by the emotion of the passing of Mr. Silver and Black himself. They looked unstoppable; that is, until Campbell got hurt. The team, who still has no real, official front office leadership, had to make a snap decision about what to do since the signing deadline was looming. This landed Carson Palmer squarely into the black hole, and the rest of the team started looking like just that: a black hole. Then the Autumn wind picked up again and the team is cruising steadily. Though they're headed in the right direction, there are still some massive things to look out for, both good and bad. Raiders' Biggest Obstacles Penalties It's still no secret that the Raiders are the most penalized team in the NFL, which is not unique to this season. This seems to be something that needs constant work and attention. Even a casual Raiders fa...
1. TAG! YOU’RE IT. - Michael Bush proved once again just how productive he can be as a starter in this league. His 242 yards from scrimmage were the most by a Raider since the merger. The Raiders need to use the franchise tag on him in the off-season, as its clear he is worth it. It’s a steep price to pay for a backup runningback, but as this league continues to remind us, you cannot just rely on one. 2. PLAYING FAVORITES - Looks like Carson Palmer found his go-to guy in rookie wide out Denarius Moore. Moore has come on strong the last two weeks and is finding his groove with Palmer. Moore brought in 5 receptions for 123 yards and 2 TDs, including one of the best catches you’ll see all season. The sky’s the limit for this kid, as he continues to wow the Raider Nation and develop a rapport with the Raiders new signal caller. 3. WIMBLEY IS BACK - Hue Jackson said Kamerion Wimbley would get his sacks in bunches, but who could predict he’d grab four against the Chargers, doubling h...
Wow. That was ugly. The Raiders have played themselves into a corner after dropping two straight divisional games to less talented football teams. After the “bully” had his nose broken on Sunday, the Raiders will have to heal quickly because one of the biggest games of the season comes on only three days rest. The Raiders gave up 300 rushing yards to the Denver Broncos. That’s not a typo. A college-style option offense torched the Oakland defense en route to a 34-21 upset win on Sunday. The Raiders were undisciplined in every aspect of the game. They had 15 penalties for 130 yards. Players didn’t stay true to their assignments, and were caught out of position, with Tim Tebow and Willis McGahee ripping them for huge gains. Linebackers were leaving gaps uncovered, defensive ends got burned bending down the line and lost contain, and the punt coverage team took bad angles in pursuit. Michael Bush had a nice game in the starting role, 19 carries for 96 yards and 33 yards receiving...
It's been a NFL season full of abnormalities due to the lockout and the Raiders have been no exception. Many thought the Raiders would finally find their grove. The team finally had a guy they could call their franchise quarterback in Jason Campbell and they were full of young talent at just about every position. Hue Jackson, a fiery new coach, seemed to have the right formula for success. It started well enough, until week 5 when the wheels started to come off. The Raiders lost their fearless leader Al Davis. While the Raiders were able to rally to beat the Texans that week, it was easy to tell that things were not the same in Oakland. Although often scrutinized for his managerial decisions, Al Davis ran things his way and answered to no one. Meaning when it came time to make decisions, they were made, and people moved on. Uncertainty was the word of the week when it came to how the Raiders would move forward. It didn't take long to find out who was now making the calls. Hue J...
Quarterback This position, in regards to Fantasy, is less of a crap shoot than it was two weeks ago, but there's still no way to confidently say play Palmer over other QBs in the NFL. Palmer's play against the Chiefs was not an indication of his future play because he was unprepared and didn't have his go-to: Darren McFadden. He was just trying to clean up Boller's mess. This week he still won't have McFadden, but he will have T.J. “Who's-Yo-Mama” Houshmandzadeh with whom he practiced during his “retirement.” Housh will give Palmer a reliable target that he's comfortable with and can go to on third downs, or any other down for that matter. It would irresponsible to give a definitive “go!” for starting Palmer on your team this week. On the bright side, Tebow will make him look like a pro-bowler again. Running Back All of you who have been reaping the benefits of McFadden's success have probably been drinking yourself to sleep after seeing him leave practi...
Both Tim Tebow and Carson Palmer are coming off performances they would love to forget. After orchestrating a heroic comeback against Miami, Tebow fell flat at home against Detroit, while Carson’s last outing resulted in 3 interceptions in one half of football. For Palmer, the Raiders bye was anything but an “off week" as he spent some of the mandatory off days gaining chemistry with receivers Jacoby Ford and Darius Heyward-Bey. “There’s no comparison to last week…I’m comfortable with the entire playbook. I’m comfortable with the guys,” Palmer said. The Raiders added to Palmer’s familiarity by signing veteran free agent wide receiver T.J. Houshmanzadeh. Houshmandzadeh will help out in the slot. He’s a big body that’s not afraid of contact and can go over the middle. Palmer and Houshmandzadeh played together in Cincinnati and worked out together last summer. Palmer will look for his safety blanket primarily on third downs. Perhaps the definition of “Tebowing” should be changed...
The Raiders are coming fresh off the bye week and it couldn't have come at a better time. The Raiders are nursing a host of injuries and spent extra week getting Carson Palmer ready and advance scouting for the Chargers next Thursday. The coaching staff also spent time evaluating their own team so don't be surprised if there are a few changes in the starting lineup come Sunday. Several Raiders receivers stayed in Alameda during the bye week to work with Palmer on timing and routes. Palmer has extensive homework to do getting to know the Raiders playbook and the game plan for the Broncos. The Raiders coaching staff also took a look at T.J. Houshmandzadeh and he will have a physical Tuesday. Housh is very familiar with Palmer and Hue Jackson, so it comes as little surprise the Raiders would take a look at him. One of Derek Hagan or Chaz Schilens would probably be out if the Raiders brought in the veteran receiver. Everyone is hoping Darren McFadden's foot sprain was minor and...