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Over at Grantland , the great Bill Barnwell wrote an interesting piece on the year-to-year ebb and flow of NFL teams, as it pertains to their records. The basis of his piece was examining whether 2nd half hot streaks carry over into the following season, but he also provided some good statistics on the well known idea that great teams regress and awful teams usually improve the following season. As it applies to the Raiders, coming off a 4-12 season, Barnwell found that since 1990, 88.2% of 4 win teams improved their record the following season, 5.9% got worse, and 5.9% won 4 games again. So should we expect the Raiders to improve on 4-12 this upcoming season? Short answer is: yes. Given that 88.2% of 4 win teams are winning the more games the next season, it would seem logical to expect Oakland will be a better team this upcoming season. The big X-factor for Oakland this season will be the quarterback situation. Matt Flynn will likely be the starter, and he's an interesting case. ...

Travis Goethel #50 College: Arizona St. Height: 6'2½" Weight: 240 lbs Arm Length: 32.0" Hand Size 9.6"   40 Yard Dash: 4.81 3 Cone Drill: 6.93 20 Yard Shuttle: 4.54 Bench Press: 21 reps Vertical Jump: 35" Broad Jump: 111"   Travis Goethel was selected in the 6th round in the 2010 draft. He was initially thought to be one of those late round steals after making some significant noise in training camp, but a lower back injury limited him severely his first season with the Raiders. He saw action in just 8 games his rookie season, most of which was on special teams. After showing signs of promise his rookie year before the injury, many were excited to see what Goethel had to offer in his second season with a clean bill of health. He burst onto the scene again in 2011, drawing rave reviews in training camp from the coaches, and was in line to start at weak side linebacker. Fans again began to hope Goethel would emerge into a late round steal for the R...

Rolando McClain #55 College: Alabama Height: 6'3" Weight: 254 lbs Arm Length: 33" Hand Size: 9 3/8"   40 Yard Dash: 4.69 3 Cone Drill: N/A 20 Yard Shuttle: N/A Bench Press: 24 reps Vertical Jump: 35" Broad Jump: N/A   In the last decade there have been a lot of Raiders first round picks that were scrutinized far before they ever put on a uniform. A lot of the scrutiny was justified, but should not always be directed at the player. After all, the players can't control where they are selected. Rolando McClain "broke the mold" if you will, when it comes to first round picks by the Raiders though. He was thought of by many to finally be one of those "sure thing" draft picks. Well the start of McClain's career in the NFL has been anything but "sure". McClain struggled to make the transition from a one gap linebacker in Nick Saban's 34 defense at Alabama to a two gap linebacker in the 43 defense the Raiders ran in hi...

The  Oakland Raiders  may not do much shuffling on the offensive side of the ball, but the 29th ranked defense will be altered. Stanford Routt has already been released and Reggie McKenzie promises even more change. Of the 11 positions on defense, only two have unquestioned starters. Had the Raiders been healthy, the starters at the end of the season would have been nearly identical to the starters in Week 1. The lone exception would be Aaron Curry starting over Quentin Groves. Since the Raiders will use both three-man and four-man fronts, we'll have to predict the starters for both schemes.   RDE Matt Shaughnessy (4-3 only) Last season, Shaughnessy was among the favorites during training camp to have a breakout, but hurt his shoulder and missed 13 games. He'll return in 2012 and hope to revive the buzz he generated last offseason. Shaughnessy managed to record just one sack in three games in 2011 and will be ready to add to that total. The introduction of the 3-4 will be very ...

Al Davis carefully planned his estate so his son could retain full control of the team. It will be Mark Davis who leads the team into an era of Raiders football without his legendary father. Mark Davis waited three months before making any changes on the football side of the organization, but changes were inevitable. Perhaps the best slogan for the 2012 Raiders would be, "Under New Management." The Raiders have hired 21 new people on the football side of the organization and whereas a quality control coach will have little to no impact on the immediate or long-term success of the team, a general manager will have significant impact.   21. Eric Sanders, Quality Control - Defense He's been with the team for two years and even the most die-hard fan doesn't recognize the name. Sanders coached linebackers at U.C. Davis for two seasons and he was a psychology major before joining the Raiders. He'll make copies of play sheets and get the rest of the staff coffee. That...

Prediction 1: Matt Shaughnessy will have 10 sacks or more. Result: Shaughnessy played in three games registering 1 sack. There is no way of knowing is Shaughnessy would have made it to 10 sacks and the three games was too small of a sample to project out a full season. 0 for 1. Prediction 2:   Taiwan Jones will have at least two touchdowns longer than 70 yards. Result: Jones also had an injury that derailed what could have been a promising start to his young career. No dice. 0 for 2. Prediction 3: Darren McFadden will have 2000 total yards from scrimmage. Result: Yet again injury hurts he possibility of the bold prediction coming true. McFadden had 768 total yards from scrimmage in seven games. Projecting McFadden's season over 16 games means he falls short at 1751 total yards. 0 for 3. Prediction 4: Darrius Heyward-Bey will catch twice as many passes as he did last year. Result: Twice as many? That wasn't enough for DHB who caught more than twice as many passes and it w...

When you look at the Raiders current 4-3 defense, it appears the problem is very easy to solve. The Raiders have run a strict man-to-man defense for years. At certain times and with the right personnel it was successful. However, when creative offensive minds are scheming against it, the holes in it become clear. Another big problem is the linebackers are trying to cover slot receivers, tight ends and running backs out of the backfield. A lot of the big plays that Oakland surrenders are the result of players playing outside of their “comfort zone” or natural ability. Using the last game against the Chargers as an example, when the Raiders needed a key stop San Diego would run a “rub” route or get Gates matched up with Kamerion Wimbley, Aaron Curry, or even LaMarr Houston (on at least one occasion) and make a big play. Those guys have little to no shot at covering Gates. Using a 3-4 defense would allow Oakland to disguise their defense more, integrate more zone coverage, and keep player...

Two weeks ago headed into the game against Miami the Raiders were leading the AFC West and coming off three straight victories. Two weeks later the season is on the line. Thanks to Timothy Tebow in Denver and two horrible losses in a row, the Raiders are in must-win mode. Unfortunately for the Raiders the opponent this week needs a win just as badly. The Lions look and play like a playoff team. The Raiders haven't played like a playoff team in many weeks. What do the Raiders need to do to win? Let's take a look at the numbers. [table id=9 /] When the Raiders have the ball: The Lions are nearly as suspect against the run as the Raiders surrendering 5.1 yards per carry this season to the Raiders 5.2 and 5 yards less per game than the Raiders atrocious run defense. The Raiders will attempt to run on the Lions and keep Carson Palmer from hurting the Raiders with costly turnovers. The Lions secondary have proven themselves to be ball hawks and they will force Carson Palmer into a tu...

Surely in a blowout loss there were more duds than studs. I suppose a stud is relative to the play of the rest of the team when the score is 147-14. A few players did have nice days and the rest didn't. There were probably more duds than I can list, so the duds this week are the "Death Ro" of duds. STUDS Desmond Bryant He's earning himself more playing time each week. With the way Richard Seymour is playing and with John Henderson banged up he might just earn more time at defensive tackle as well as defensive end. Stefen Wisniewski Towards the end of the game the Raiders sat the Wiz kid down. I guess the coaching staff realized that he was the only solid offensive lineman and gave him a rest. He was very good pass blocking and did a solid job run blocking for Bush. He was particularly good at getting to the linebacker. Some may argue Wisniewski is better suited to play center, but until Stephon Heyer or Joseph Barksdale play well enough to slide Wisniewski over he...

Belated this week, but the show must go on! STUDS Marcel Reece Quite the weapon for the Raiders. Expect him to continue to have a big role for the final five games. Aaron Curry Best game as a professional. He's a good player when he the play is in front of him. A good trade for the Raiders with potential to be great. Rolando McClain The linebackers were a big reason for the Raiders success on Sunday. McClain had a good game stopping the run and in coverage. He was in a tough position when Caleb Hanie scrambled to his right as he had to choose between covering Forte or going after Hanie. It was a big pickup for the Bears, but if McClain leaves Forte open it could have been bigger. ***I should revoke this for his actions Wednesday night in Alabama.*** Kamerion Wimbley He did a bit of everything on Sunday. Still the best pure pass rusher on the team, he stepped up and stopped the run and he had an interception and return that would have been a touchdown if not for a horse-collar tackl...

The Bears come into Oakland minus their starting quarterback Jay Cutler. They will turn from Cutler to Caleb Hanie. It changes the game considerably from what the Raiders would have been facing with Jay Cutler under center. The Bears will not be able to turn to Cutler when the defense stacks the box against Matt Forte and the pressure will be on Hanie to make the defense pay for it. Running Matt Forte has more yards from scrimmage and more 20+ and 40+ yards runs than any running back in football. Forte is averaging 155.1 yards per game. Put this in perspective, Matt Forte generates over 47% of the Bears offensive yards. How does the worst run defense in football stop the best running back in football? The Raiders are allowing 5.2 yards per carry. Forte is averaging 5.0 yards per carry. It doesn't take a mathematician to do this math Forte could run all over the Raiders if they don't have a plan to stop him. Forte is extremely elusive and defenders have missed tackles on him 38 ...

The Raiders slogged through the second half again and it nearly came back to bite them. A better team may have been able to capitalize on the Raiders penalties, but the Vikings without Adrian Peterson were powerless to do so. The defense looked suspect again and the Raiders offensive line struggled more than they have all season. A few welcome surprises this week and the reappearance of duds from 2010. STUDS Jared Veldheer Veldheer handled Jared Allen on Sunday and held him without a sack for the first time this season. The Raiders finally found their franchise left tackle from Hillsdale College. If Veldheer can handle Julius Peppers this Sunday, he'll start getting national recognition and should get a decent amount of Pro Bowl consideration. Allen did get pressure on Palmer on back-to-back plays in the first half, but Veldheer adjusted and was pushing Allen well wide of Palmer for the rest of the day. On one occasion Veldheer flattened Allen on a run. A great performance from the...

The 2011 Minnesota Viking Offense is very similar to the offense of the 2009 Oakland Raiders. Both of these offenses featured young developing quarterbacks and potentially game braking running backs. The Raiders won five games during the 2009 season. With the season more than halfway over Minnesota is 2-7, so finishing with a five-win season is a realistic goal for them. As a result, both of these offenses relayed on a strong running game to alleviate their ineptness in the passing game. For the Vikings to be successful they have to get Adrian Peterson going. Peterson has earned the right to be regarded as the best running back in the NFL. The Raiders defense has contain him and remain disciplined. To be successful, the Vikings must take advantage when the Raiders defense plays undisciplined or gets too aggressive. Look for Christian Ponder to try to expose the Raiders’ linebackers in pass coverage and take try to connect with Percy Harvin when he is lined up against Demarcas Van Dyke ...

Until Denver and their spread option read came and put up nearly 300 rushing yards on them, including two 100-yard rushers, the Raiders allowed only Fred Jackson to post a 100-yard rushing game. Four days after the Denver game, the Raiders held an offense that averages over 100 rushing yards a game to 68. So what happened two weeks ago against Denver? Did the Raiders defensive ends play undisciplined? Yes. Were the linebackers often late in filling lanes and did they often fill the wrong ones repeatedly? Yes. Did the entire front seven of the defense get manhandled by Denver’s offensive line? Yes. Is there anything else that led to the Raiders' defensive collapse two weeks ago? Yes: the absence of Rolando McClain. McClain has only missed one game, that being of course Denver at home. In that game, Curry had the green dot on the defense and the Raiders run defense was atrocious. Regardless of the Raiders having a dominant defensive line, the middle linebacker is the undisputed quart...

The Raiders dominated the Browns yet only squeezed out the victory. What players stood out on Sunday and which went unnoticed in the victory? Studs Jacoby Ford - A 101-yard kick return gets you into studs about 99 times out of 100. He broke another long return and almost busted out on an offensive play. Ford isn't getting the snaps he is used to getting, but that could change this week. Kamerion Wimbley - Sure his sack numbers aren't adding up just yet, but he spent the afternoon in Colt McCoy's face. He's drawing a ton of attention and that is freeing up the defensive tackles to wreak havoc up the middle. Richard Seymour - Double teams are no match for Mr. Seymour. The man sure loved to push around the Browns interior lineman and was drawing holds and double teams just about every play. Superior game by the Raiders defensive captain. Michael Huff - No one was better than Huff in coverage on Sunday. He played mostly cornerback and Matt Giordano gets an honorable mentio...

Raiders have acquired former 1st round pick Aaron Curry from the Seahawks for two future draft picks. The compensation is a 7th round pick in 2012 and a conditional mid-round pick in the 2013 draft. Aaron Curry was much heralded coming out of college but has been a non-impact player so far in his career. Curry has struggled to defend the pass and hasn't added much as a pass rusher either. However, the Raiders likely traded Curry for his ability to stop the run. Curry has been decently successful at stopping the run since he entered the league despite occasional struggles. The most likely scenario is that Curry is used in running situations to start as the staff work with Curry on other areas of his game. With Matt Shaughnessy's status in doubt the Raiders have worked out defensive ends and linebackers in successive weeks. The Raiders ultimately decided against signing these players. Kamerion Wimbley has been lining up more at defensive end with Shaughnessy out and that may cont...

This a little late this week as it took an extra night to watch the game for the second time. Studs Darrius Heyward-Bey  He made a great hands catch and already has nine receptions for 164 yards in three games which surpasses his entire rookie season. Kevin Boss 4 catches for 78 yards. He's proving to be every bit the weapon Miller was in the passing game and he blocks well also. The Offensive Line Without singling out a single player, these guys have been the surprise of the season. Campbell has all day to throw and they are opening holes for the backs as well. Jared Veldheer, Stefen Wisniewski, Samson Satele, Cooper Carlisle, and even Khalif Barnes. Sprinkle in a little Joe Barksdale. No stars here, this group is getting it done together.   Duds Richard Seymour Penalties, penalties, penalties. Complain if you want, but the penalties can't happen. Giving free yards to Tom Brady is a recipe for disaster. To cap it off, Seymour didn't have a very good day putting pressure on...

It's all about the defense this Sunday. The performance of the defense will either cement the Raiders as one of the elite teams in the NFL or it will push the Raiders back into mediocrity.   Richard Seymour vs Patriots Offensive line If the success of the defense relays on the play of the defensive line, then everything starts with Richard Seymour. Seymour has been one the most dominant defensive linemen in football for the past decade and is the defensive captain. If Seymour gets penetration early, look for the doors to open up for other linemen. The Patriots offensive line features all-pro Matt Light and Logan Mankins but will be without starting right tackle Sebastian Vollmer. Containing the Patriots passing game starts with Seymour up the middle.   Chuck Bresnahan vs Tom Brady Every defensive scheme has a weakness and Tom Brady will find it if given enough time. The question is can Bresnahan keep Brady guessing? The Raiders must mix up and disguise their coverage well. Bre...

The pain of defeat had a nasty sting to it Sunday when the Raiders blew a big lead in the second half and were downed by the Bills in the final minute. This game, unlike the first game, had many more standout performances. Unfortunately for the Raiders, some of the performances were horrible. Fortunately,  many are correctable. Luckily, the team now comes home for five out of the next six games where they were 5-3 a year ago. Thankfully, the Raiders found out important things about their team in the process. Studs Denarius Moore Yes, the rookie can play. He proved it Sunday. It's going to be hard for the Raiders to keep him off the field. Who's playing time does he cut into? It would be logical for him to cut into Darrius Heyward-Bey's time, but that won't be the case. Most of the damage done by Moore was from the Z receiver position. Jacoby Ford plays this position. Certainly the Raiders will not rob from Ford to give to Moore. Moore is cut into the playing time of the...

If Rolando McClain makes a few more tackles... If Nick Miller doesn't trip on his own feet... If the Raiders "daunting" front four sacks Ryan Fitzpatrick just once... If Tyvon Branch isn't called for roughness on a defenseless receiver and it is ruled a fumble... If Ryan Fitzpatrick's dropped snap is a fumble and not a faux spike... If Chris Johnson makes just one play... If Tyvon Branch catches the interception or deflects the ball... If Darren McFadden doesn't fumble... If Denarius Moore comes down with the Hail Mary pass... If Kevin Boss, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Jacoby Ford, Louis Murphy and Mike Mitchell play... If Matt Giordano makes a key tackle... If Rolando McClain doesn't miss his coverage assignment... If if if if if. The Raiders lost this game. Plenty of blame to go around and that's why it was so terribly painful to watch. The defense was terrible. The offense could have been better. Positives? Sure...there are plenty of positives, but it'...