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Jason Campbell Stat Breakdown

The doldrums of the NFL offseason are upon us. There isn’t much to keep football fans going this time of year, besides the drama that seems to be created and spewed from the ESPN’s headquarters in Bristol.

In a time of relative calm, what is there for football fans and the Raider Nation to cling to? ESPN’s Ice Cube documentary, "Straight Outta L.A." airs tonight at 5 PM pacific.

In the mean time, focus should be and will be on the Raiders starting quarterback Jason Campbell.

Did Campbell really improve every year of his pro career? What can we expect in 2010, realistically? Warning, as the following content is statistic heavy.

+ is improvement, - is regression for the following

7 games
76.5 QB Rating
10 TD at 4.8%
6 INT at 2.9 %
1297 yds or 185.3 yds/gm
53.1% Comp
0 Fumbles Lost/1 total

13 games
77.6 QB Rat --- (+1.1 vs 2006)
12 TD at 2.9% --- (-1.9% vs 2006)
11 INT at 2.6% --- (-0.3% vs 2006)
2700 yds or 207.7 yds/gm --- (+22.4 vs 2006)
60.0% comp --- (+6.9% vs 2006)
8 fumbles lost/13 total --- (-8/-12 lost vs 2006)

16 games
84.3 QB Rat --- (+6.7 vs 2007)
13 TD at 2.6% --- (-0.3% vs 2007)
6 INT at 1.2% --- (+1.4% vs 2007)
3245 yds or 202.8 yds/gm --- (-4.9 yds/gm vs 2007)
62.3% comp --- (+2.3% vs 2007)
1 fumble lost/7 total --- (+7/+5 lost vs 2007)

16 games
86.4 QB Rat --- (+2.1 vs 2008)
20 TD at 3.9% --- (+1.3% vs 2008)
15 INT at 3.0% --- (-1.8% vs 2008)
3618 yds or 226.1 yds/gm --- (+23.3 yds/gm vs 2008)
64.5 % Comp --- (+2.2% vs 2008)
3 lost/13 total --- (-2/+5 vs 2008)


From 2006 to 2007 - NUETRAL Improvement - Improved completion percentage by a hefty +6.9% and that impacted his yards per game average by 22.4 yds/gm. His TD (-1.9%) and INT (-0.3%) percentages actually took a small dip from the seven games he played in 2006. The 8 fumbles lost and 13 total fumbles was the black eye on his 2007 season.

From 2007 to 2008 – SIGNIFICANT Improvement – Improved his INT % by 1.4% and upped his completion percentage again by 2.3%. He minimized his fumbling problem from 2007. The per yards average was down, which indicates the increase in completions may be due to shorter passes, but his TD % remains constant with just a 0.3% decrease.

From 2008 to 2009 – MODERATE Improvement – Improved TD percentage by 1.3% and completion percentage by 2.2% Yards per game was up 23.3 yds/gm and he lost 2 less fumbles than in 2008. However, he fumbled 5 more times than 2008 and had a significant downgrade in his INT % a 1.8% decrease.

From 2009 to 2010 – His improvement hasn’t been across the board, but rather more sporadic from year to year besides completion percentage. The question becomes if Campbell can put together a season where he improves and/or maintains his stats from the year prior much as he did in from 2007 to 2008. He took risks in 2009 for TDs and threw more TDs, but also more INTS. Perhaps it paid off because he completed more passes and improved his QB rating, but it also didn’t result in more wins for the Redskins.

2010 Jason Campbell Predicted Stats:
90 QB Rating
18 TD
12 INT
3700 yards
66.7% Comp
4 Fumbles Lost / 11 Total

This prediction is based upon what is likely to be average for Campbell. There is of course the chance that he throws 25 TDs, but any rise in his TD percentage has also had a greater or equal increase in his INT percentage leaving him with a potential 25 TD and 21 INT season.

He has been able to match his TD percentage in the past and improve his INT percentage, so a very good season for Campbell could be around 20 TD and 10 INTs.

Precedent is that he increases his completion percentage and QB rating again and the increase in these areas have been fairly constant. There is also a chance based on the sporadic improvement that Campbell could regress in these areas, but improve in others.

Other random thoughts:

- How good will Zach Miller be next season? @Raidermight brought this question up on Twitter. Miller has improved from 45 in his rookie campaign to 55 in 2008 to 67 receptions in 2009.

If Miller takes an incremental jump of equal proportion to the past two seasons, he could have 78 receptions and 950 yards. What if the addition of Jason Campbell proves to be even more valuable? Could we be looking at Dallas Clark-like production or 100 receptions and 1000+ yards?

- How much will the media be allowed to see at the upcoming OTAs? Will the Raiders allow enough access to media to give us a fix until late July? We will see next week.

Follow me on Twitter: Raidersblog for real-time news and everything else.


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